Your theory needs to use 1337 to be even cooler. 1337 will bring us to 6000  |
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I don't understand why ANY of you here would still have funds on mtgox. Mtgox has had blatant liquidity and management problems and been the running joke of this community for almost an entire YEAR. I removed my funds in AUGUST. We had passed mtgox off as no longer relevant and a facade months and months ago and now suddenly it's a big deal again?
Because someone had to have their funds on Gox, otherwise the truth would have been known earlier. You are just begging the question.... |
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I'm pretty surprised to learn he still has a sizable amount there. There was plenty of chance to arbitrage and get out in the last bubble, even with profit. |
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It includes price before MtGox opened, which I don't think the data is reliable nor practically meaningful |
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You had 200k in Gox before you were even verified? I got an account verification mail from MTGox 2 hours ago. I think they are alive.
$200k may only mean 200BTC if he had sold at $1000, and 200BTC was not a big deal for someone who started in 2011. It could all be GPU mined in a few months |
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I have 206000 dollars in my MTGOX account before Feb.7. These money are sleeping in MTGOX for years. I trust MTGOX
WHY???Because he believes Satoshi is behind gox. What an insult to the genius |
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I hope you still keep a few coins in your local wallet. Keep them safe. You will be bailed out when it goes above $10000/BTC
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Is there any place where I could check trend line and where it is updated automatically?
I will update once a few days but not automatic. As this is a long-term trend, you don't really need a daily update. The trend line is growing by about 0.6062%, or $3 per day at current price. |
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Not really active buying those 400 coins..
What do you mean by not active buying? I mean they haven't really bought lot of those cheap 400$ coins. Yes, it may happen later when the price further settles at or above the current level |
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Not really active buying those 400 coins..
What do you mean by not active buying? |
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Please PM me if you want a copy of the Excel spreadsheet. Also many thanks to the one who donated 0.05XBT to me
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490XBT bought yesterday, plus 70XBT on Monday and Tuesday
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 This is the residual plot, i.e., the difference between the Series 1 and Series 2 of my last chart. It seems a bubble is likely to pop when the price is e^1.5 = 4.48 times over the trend line. For the first bubble, one would have sold at $17.16 on 04/06/2011, 5 days before the bubble pop but only 53% of the bubble top For the second bubble, one would have sold at $211.97 on 09/04/2013, just the day before the bubble pop with 79.7% of the bubble top For the latest bubble, one would have sold at $976 on 28/11/2013, 7 days before the bubble pop with 84.6% of the bubble top So the advice could be to start selling when it is over by 4.48 times. Sell more when it goes higher. For buying, it seems any pirce below or near the trend line would be okay, except for the bear market after first bubble |
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First thing I want to say first: thanks for the diligent work. Seriously. Second thing: Care to make the (R, I guess) script available so others can play with it? Wouldn't be unusual to tie it to a btc donation though, btw. Anyway... what I really wanted to say: I've said several times in different threads that also use log-linear model for price analysis that I'm generally critical about using this method, at least if the goal is active trading. The problem is of course how actual price relates to the price predicted by the regression -- in the sense that any actual trading signals are very imprecise, and can be off by an order of magnitude if interpreted naively. (sorry if I'm not getting my point across concisely, big flaw of mine) What I mean is this: most of the time when I've seen people posting regression analysis, they take price going *above* the regression prediction as a sell signal ("We're above the target"), and price going below as a buy signal. If they would have traded like that, they would have ended up at a huge loss compared to buy&hold (e.g. they would have had to re-buy much higher in 2013, after selling way too early). Note please that I'm not saying you're giving that advice, but my point is: regression analysis has to be interpreted somehow, and it is not obvious how to interpret it, in my opinion. Here is one preliminary observation, or attempt at a slightly less "naive" trading model based on regression: Except for 2011, we tend to stay below the loglinear trendline much shorter than above. So selling if we go *above* the line is probably less warranted than buying when we go *below*. Very crude first attempt, I know, but I'd like to get the discussion started. EDIT: hahaha, just noticed, you're a member since 2012. Probably don't feel the need to ask for mBTC donations  That's simply Excel. I tried different models: square root-linear, log-quadratic, square root-quadratic. The log-linear is the best fit model and with Rsq = 0.874307 is really amazing I do not try to give trading recommendation with the graph. However, go above some SD above the trend line could be a sell signal p.s. Someone here did give me 1000 mBTC donation in 2012. But smaller amounts are always appreciated. |
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Here I assume the "Crisis Strategy Draft" is authentic, as suggested here: https://twitter.com/paulbuitink/status/438428157948219392 . That means it requires 742408 BTC to cover Mark's ass. Question 1: How do you acquire 742408 BTC? It's nearly 6% of all the existing bitcoin. Satoshi is probably the only person who holds such amount but I can't imagine he would bail out gox, nor sell a single satoshi to you. You may buy such amount from multiple early adoptors but you need to spend at least $0.22 billion for the deal even at a rate of $300/BTC Question 2: Whether you buy the coins from Satoshi, from other early adopters, or your good self is Satoshi, you are releasing 6% of all bitcoin from dead cold wallet. That equals to 200 days of mining revenue and 5 times of FBI's holding. Do you think releasing such an amount in no time will cause a big chaos and crash in the market? How could you prevent this? Question 3: If you have 742,408 BTC (whether you will buy it or already own it), why would you think you can earn more than this amount from gox in foreseeable future? With 1% fee you need a volume of 74,240,800 BTC to earn this amount. With 10,000 BTC per day, it will take you 20 years to recoup your investment. New markets are emerging and some have much lower fee, so I won't be surprised it would take >100 years to recoup your investment, if ever Question 4: Taking 10% of your 742,408 BTC you can build the most solid exchange ever. You will attract all serious traders very soon. Why do you need the gox brand? Question 5: Have you considered all the legal consequence of taking up a company with ongoing lawsuit with CoinLab and US DHS, and possibly the Japanese government? Question 6: Have you considered the possibility that someone has taken all the 742,408 BTC and claims it was lost due to a security hole? How could you disprove this theory given the anonymous nature of bitcoin? For me this theory is much more plausible than someone kept draining the cold wallet and did not realize the problem until it became empty. --------------------- My comments: To be honest my biggest concern is question 2. The market cannot absorb such a huge amount if it is released in no time. Of course, all these questions are based on the 742408 BTC assumption. If the amount is more reasonable, like 20,000 BTC, that could be a good deal. Declaration: gox owes me nothing |
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in other Bitcoin related matter, Blockchain.info is being DDOS-ed and in there were 9 found blocks in only 20 minutes, how odd is that ?
9 found blocks in only 20 minutes from different pool: nothing to see here, it just means it will be more and more difficult to mine bitcoin |
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 y-axis is ln(price) Blue line is the daily VWAP Red line is the expected price of the day. For each day, a regression is fitted with all data of and before that day, so it is not a straight line. Green line is the current regression line Yesterday we broke the trend line but the VWAP was still a bit over it. We were only 4 days ahead of the trend Date: 25 Feb 2014 VWAP = 480.66 x = 1319 a = 0.006044 b = -1.82447 Rsq = 0.874307 Today's expected price = 467.8862 Predicted date for today's price = 1 Mar 2014 Days ahead = 4 Daily price rank = 100 Predicted date for ATH ($1126) = 25 Jul 2014 (See OP for explanation) |
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I hate to bring this up with the stigma... but is it just me or is the volume on btcchina creeping up?
You mean Huobi? BTCChina barely has any volume.. No I mean BTCChina... look at the 12H chart... volume was basically silent for all of january... been creeping up over the last week or so. They reduced the fee from 0.3% to 0.1% |
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