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8761  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Do you trust the co-vid19 vaccine ? on: March 12, 2021, 07:51:57 PM
Covid-19: European countries suspend use of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine after reports of blood clots

That the vaccine causes blood cloths is not proven and is being investigated but to me this shows that there was a bit of a rush. If the usual approval timelines had been followed, these doubts would have appeared in the pre-approval phase. Besides, it seems that the vaccine of this brand is the one with the most side effects.

Indeed, it is rushed, that's why side effects are yet to be discovered since clinical trials are shortened hence diminishing some possible effects in the body. And now, we are discovering. It is not a good thing that they put it already in human, but time is of the essence in this point in time, and given the positive outcome vs the negative, it is pretty good. But still must be wary for other kinds of effects, especially to old peoples and people with weak immune system.

the issue was not the vaccine design.. it was a fear of certain bad batch.. due to a event where 2 people both had blood clots. within 48 hours of a vaccine

imagine there are 10k people having a blood clot per year due to natural blood disorders.
the chance of them having a vaccine within 48hours of a bloodclot is like 0.15%
pencil math:
for every ~660 people 1 will have a bloodclot within 48 hours of a vaccine
not caused by the vaccine. but jsut bad timing of odds of 2 events in same time period
meaning it can happen ~15 times in a year. 15 of 10k will have a blood clot and vaccine at same short time

this has nothing to do with vaccines causing blood clots in healthy people
this has nothing to do with vaccines causing blood clots in blood disorder people
this is about the bad luck of an event a group of people having sometime in 1 year overlapping with a second event happening within that same year.. making 15 out of 10k having a bad luck of 2 events overlapping but not causal related to each other.

the odds of 2 people having a clot on same day is far less likely.
so when it does happen. they need to look into it.. and they did

its like setting 2 events
in one day a year your going to have a birthday
in one year you will get a girlfriend
the odds of 10k people getting a girlfriend within 48 hours of their birthday is the same 15 people a year
(yep no vaccines involved 2 events happened not causal linked on each other)

however if its found that 2 people had a birthday and got a girlfriend at same time. then thats really luck
and worthy of looking into the possible other variables to see if there was something that caused it to happen
EG birthday on valentines day

so yes 2 people having a vaccine and a bloodclot within 48 hours is a statistical anomaly worthy of checking out.. AND THEY DID
8762  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will the Lightning Network replace on-chain transactions sometime in the future? on: March 12, 2021, 04:20:51 AM
LN is not unique to bitcoin.
LN is multicurrency

you lock up your 1oz gold($1.7k). you play with banknotes($1.7k). close account collect 65oz silver($1.7k)
only paying $5 in $0.05 out
you vault your 0.03BTC($1.7k). you play with btcmillisat htlcs. you atomic swap for ltcmillisats. you exit paying $0.05 for 8.19ltc($1.7k)
8763  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: With a clogged network, users will start abandoning BTC for alts. Change my mind on: March 12, 2021, 04:08:05 AM
refuse to try out Lightning wallets

locking up BTC to play a partner. in a game of joint bank account chequebooks in a millisat denomination.. is not continuing to own bitcoin
8764  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: With a clogged network, users will start abandoning BTC for alts. Change my mind on: March 12, 2021, 03:55:43 AM
for those just wanting 'unbanked cash' EG get an income and spend it the same month.. they would see btc fee's as a thing to decide not to accept btc as income.

why get 0.01btc($570) when its going to cost you $5 every time you make a payment.. when you could get
2.73ltc with a $0.05 fee

even people within LN that have locked up their btc and playing with btcmillisat tokens dont want to exit LN and close a channel paying 0.0001 to get their real btc back just to sell it for $$.
instead they want the atomic swaps feature activated to litecoin so that the day before their session ends.
eg bob:alice channel
bob can 'swap' his 100000000000 btcmillisats for 273000000000000ltcmillisats(0.01btc:2.73ltc). and leave alice holding all the btc to handle the btc fees when alice is forced to close the channel. bob closes his ltcmilisat channel for 0.05c then just sell LTC for $569.90 from 2 ltc onchain fees instead of $560 from to btc fees 

after all if you have $570 of value. it doesnt matter if it is in 0.01btc or 2.73ltc..it still exchanges the same
but a $5 fee vs a $0.05 fee.. means you get more of the $570 to keep if you swap first inchannel

people for centuries prefered to lock up their gold for banknotes and then after playing with the banks.. ask for silver when closing an account because the banker fees to settle back to gold were high

8765  Other / Politics & Society / Re: 94 year old healthy woman gets the vaccine. on: March 12, 2021, 03:36:30 AM
do you even try to understand what he is actually saying

he is saying that:
1.lock up old people indefinetly
2. let the virus spread.
3. make people get infected by ensuring they mingle and gather

he says he fears viruses spreading but then says people should spread viruses

his theory is that with viruses mutating. someone inhaling someone elses breath might get one strain. where in the left lung it mutates slightly and in the right lung it doesnt. and that infectee then exhales 2 strains.
the next person inhaling it then has to fight 2 strains which although is a greater threat. its a way of getting different antibodies flowing for different strains.
(big IF... IF the person survives their infection)

he says because the vaccine is only a single strain once a year its only affective towards whatever strain was around 12 months before someone was giving the jab. and so not as effective at future protection compared to someone getting the current seasons viral mixed strains

the flaws in his theory is..
current social distancing means the strains have not mutated enough to make vaccines ineffective. however
letting it spread wild and unrestricted will cause many more strains and make it completely unable to be controlled.
this will cause more deaths or cause more lockdowns to avoid deaths. and then no vaccine strategy can ever be used

so.. the better advice is keeping the viral spread suppressed with social distancing and then vaccinating while the mutation generations are low enough . means people can be protected and then not spread the virus. making it less deadly per year
..
stupidly the guy actually wants to spread the virus and let it mutate and make sure it mutates faster than researchers can prep a vaccine for(facepalm).. killing many many people due to wanting no restrictions and lots of infections and lots of strains..
8766  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Its coming i faster and would shock most people on: March 12, 2021, 03:14:33 AM
Friends, I think the moment we've been waiting on is fast approaching and should it come as a shocker to most of us. O saw this on coindesk.
https://www.coindesk.com/luxury-us-hotel-group-now-accepts-bitcoin-dogecoin-and-other-cryptos?amp=1

just checked their website.. seems bitcoin is not on they payment options at booking..
...
read their announcement and it seems when you request a invoice then and only then can they email you an invoice that includes a bitpay option

its kind of like the old..  'dont mention they can pay with airmiles unless they specifically ask'
8767  Economy / Economics / Re: Trader buys $36 million of copper and gets painted rocks instead on: March 12, 2021, 01:21:19 AM
That incident was a brazen act of stupidity coming from those criminals who thought they can escape the teeth of law. Meanwhile, I think the buyer company has been complacent enough that they did little to ensure that the copper cargo would be accompanied by their own representative and the insurance papers verified for their veracity considering that the transaction involves a considerable amount of money. Imho.

commodity traders.. dont seek to trade to get delivery. they hold 7day contracts where if they dont sell it on day 8 it triggers a delivery to them.
so they play with 7 day contracts and always sell on day 7. meaning the next trader sells on day 7. meaning the next trader sells on day 7.. meaning for 21 days it doesnt move

with fast trading by commodity traders circulating the stocks. the goods can be held up in warehouses for years. if traders never sell on to industry buyers

think about it.
13 people arrested... hmm.. 300 containers containing hundreds of thousands of tiles. all individually handsprayed... that takes a few months.. not a 2 day lay-over

by not triggering a delivery.. no one inspects the containers.. they just sit there doing nothing until a delivery is triggered
8768  Economy / Economics / Re: Trader buys $36 million of copper and gets painted rocks instead on: March 12, 2021, 01:16:25 AM
yep the flaws of commodities trading.

people playing digital markets where digits are backed by physical products. but those physical products dont move or get inspected enough to ensure the backed commodity is still real and valuable

same went for fiat when it was gold backed. no one was allowed to audit the fed reserve

its the downside of 'backed assets' you have to trust the vault/reserve/warehouse isnt fractionally reserving or syphoning off the pile
8769  Economy / Economics / Re: random economic ideas on: March 11, 2021, 10:55:46 PM
NFT are like only the licence/patent/trademark of something
my idea is more like owning shares in a company(celebrity)

historic tulips and NFT wont be and havnt been described as 'a bubble'
as 'bubble' is about the price value speculation. not the item itself

tulip mania have been and NFT might be described as a 'fad' (temporary trendy thing)
bubbles are about the price of those things. not the thing itself

i think that some popular people will sell themselves as a brand. (like company shares)
take sports
the sports star gets paid a salary. and separately people are 'buying their contract' based on their skills/performance over many games/teams

organising this ranking/valuation into something more official that can get the fans involved and benefits the celeb/sportsman. rather than the team managers. could be a good thing

other things like any random citizen. instead of a credit report to base their risk. they could have a share scheme. where they win points for education level or employment length. or employment promotions.
where friends/family/coworkers can invest in their friend/family. and profit if they succeed

il leave you guys to poke and prod the many aspects that can come from this
8770  Economy / Speculation / Re: Keep up with the technical and fundamental trends of the market on: March 11, 2021, 09:56:29 PM
the amount of people deciding to throw their government cheque into buying bitcoin can affect the price. but these things just cause small temporary hype spike/dip drama in the price.
last summers stimulus only created a 10/20% speculation price effect.. where as elon musks 50k coin purchase caused a 300% spike

true technical analysis in shifting mining costs vs price
(choosing to buy rather then mine in low price/high cost period.. 'mine to sell' in high price/low cost periods) has more than a 40% effect

'trending' patterns
general citizen investing $1XX-$1XXXX each onmasse -15% effect
mining pools change of strategy - 50% effect
huge investor investing $XXXXXXXXXX - 300% effect

but hey if you wanna scream to the world to hype up a 15% natural effect to try getting speculation above 20%. you can. but dont expect the 20%+ to hold. so get in-out quick
hype is never sustainable
8771  Other / Politics & Society / Re: 94 year old healthy woman gets the vaccine. on: March 11, 2021, 07:00:46 AM
Thats why I believe this covid thing is man made virus. Created to make the poor poorer and rich richer. There are evil people behind this manipulation. Fuck the market makers

its natural zoonotic virus (passed naturally animal-human). however yes some people can profit and some can lose by any crisis/event
8772  Other / Archival / Re: Declaration of Sovereignty by Akihiko Ryōma July 5, 1999 on: March 11, 2021, 06:54:10 AM
oh look we have another member of the 'freeman cult'.
... let me prepare a glass of whiskey and ill be back to correct this guys mis-beliefs
....
5minutes later
....

voiding your US citizenship makes you an illegal alien.
you cannot just declare yourself as sovereign whilst within the borders or the US
you cannot just declare your home/land as an independent nation
you need the US to recognise and accept it. (permission)

you have options:
-become recognised as a nation(permission)and have a treaty/diplomatic agreement that you/your land sit outside US state/fed jurisdiction. then seek a treaty to allow you some freedoms(diplomatic immunity)
-become a citizen of another nation that already has a treaty/diplomatic relations to stay 'free' within the US
 (get a native american tribal leader to declare you a citizen of their tribe)

if your not recognised as a citizen of a nation. you are an illegal alien. and the us will handle you as such

if you are recognised as a citizen of another nation without having treaty/diplomatic relations. you are an illegal immigrant.. and as such the US has laws about that too.

you need to be 'owned' by someone(tribe/nation/slave owner)
and that 'someone' has to have good relations and an agreement(treaty) with the US to allow you to remain in the us and 'free' to move about
(its why immigrants need 'sponsors' slaves need slave owners and native americans need tribal leaders recognised by us government)

yep even native americans cannot just magic up a new tribe the fed/state doesnt recognise
if you think slaves, native americans and immigrants were 'sovereign' and 'free' by default..think again.
wars and treaties set the jurisdiction boundaries.. not self declarations

and now the boundaries are set. you cannot just make a new boundary by self declaration
you have to have a nation which USA recognises and also allows special privileges to..

take 300-200 years ago. colonists didnt recognise any land was owned by anyone. so they just walked on through
..native americans fought back. eventually a treaty was formed with tribes to set land borders of what tribes declared as their sovereign reserves which colonists could not pass without permission and colonists could not set rule over. not realising they were setting a boundary/prison for themselves

native americans had their own nations they were sovereign of(by way of treaty) but soon found out they were not allowed to leave their nations(tribal land) to freely walk around the US. they imprisoned themselves within their own reservations by way of the treaties which they thought would keep the colonists out

african slaves were not free to walk outside their slave owners land without permission from their slave master who was a colonial citizen and had a slave licence that allowed certain privileges.

take 100 years ago
the US gave US citizenship to everyone born/naturalised within the land of the US and allowed special privileges to those of the known tribal nations, this allowed tribes access to travel within the US while still allowing them to set their own rules within their own land.

this did not mean they could set rules for US land(off reservation). nor just declare new land as theirs.. nor ignore US rules when outside of the tribal land.

these allowed privileges were done by treaties (agreements between the nations)
and over the decades. reservations sovereignty has been reduced as the US law both state and fed slowly limited what tribes on reservation land could get away with.
(state congress say murder/rape/burglary are under state jurisdiction.not tribal decision of punishment)
(state congress regulate who can own casino of reservation land. (only allowing indians))

you cant just set yourself up as a illegal alien and not expect any backlash or repercussion
unless you have a recognised nation and have an agreement of privileges(treaty).. expect backlash
without state/fed recognition and permission.. you will be treated as an illegal alien/tresspasser on us land

yep. trying to say your home is your territory outside fed jurisdiction.. doesnt make it so..it doesnt absolve you of us law/legal system. you have to have a treaty with the state/fed where there is a declaration from the state/fed that they will happily treat your territory as outside of their state/fed jurisdiction.

if your house is on US land and not a state/fed recognised nation.. you are still affected by us rule.
you cant just pretend you are a nation declared by you. you cant just pretend you are a diplomat or immune from us law. you need their permission to have a status they recognise as being outside their jurisdiction while remaining within their territory

..
anyway
if you do manage to get state/fed recognition that your private land is a nation.
then make sure they have designated it an independent nation and not a 'domestic dependent nation'
then make sure they set a treaty up with you to put your land outside of their jurisdiction both state and fed.
then make sure they set a treaty up to allow you some freedoms if you step off your driveway

.. goodluck getting that permission
8773  Other / Off-topic / Re: Have you taken any of the covid vaccine? on: March 11, 2021, 12:44:04 AM
ive had mine. only issue i had was a sore arm..
not really painful. more like the pressure feeling of sleeping on side for too long

2 close relatives of mine both in their 60's had theirs too.
relative D didnt have a sore arm.
relative M did

relative M and D said they felt slight fatigue. but they were tired anyway before the vaccine.
M had Pfizer
D and me had AstraZeneca

so apart from the obvious arm stuff. not really anything to note.

we all agreed its better to get inflammation in the arm from vaccine.. than inflammation in the lung from covid
8774  Other / Politics & Society / Re: 94 year old healthy woman gets the vaccine. on: March 10, 2021, 11:24:08 PM

ignore it if asymptomatic. minor symptomatic. mild

however if moderately or severely sick with any infection. your body, when under strain decides to turn off or dampen bodily functions so it can concentrate on fighting the infection
this is why you stop feeling hungry. because your body has slowed down your digestive system.
this is why you can be less horny. because your body has slowed down your hormone production. its why your more irritable and why your not making as much sperm
also fever reduces sperm count.. so ice your scrotum aswell as your forehead if you have high fever

but once your body is recovered your hormone and body functions speed back up temperature goes down
so relaxed.. your not infertile.. your just temporarily drained
8775  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: There are no real coins in bitcoin on: March 10, 2021, 11:08:15 PM
The coins are just the balances where the unit is BTC (with 8 decimal points) inferred from all previous unspent transactions to that bitcoin address.
next revelation you have yet to make

in bitcoin transaction and bitcoins blockchain... there are no bitcoins/btc

..
transactions only use satoshi units of measure
its data is satoshis
no btc is found in the tx or block data

the users software takes the satoshi unit measure from the data and converts the number into a basket number ofbtc for user benefit.. its a gui representation, only seen in the user software display
8776  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the actual point of the many working parts of Bitcoin/blockchains? on: March 10, 2021, 10:44:29 PM
ok.. back to basics

imagine i have a chequebook.. and i wrote out a cheque. i have $500 and i write a cheque to dave for $400
dave holds onto it. and seen i had $500 so it must be good.. right..??

however 2 minutes later i write another cheque to betty for $450
betty also seen my bank balance of $500 so thinks her cheque is good..

.. both cant be right
so a cheque is not cleared until the bank makes the transfer where only one recipients cheque is going to clear. (as it should be)

so.. the mining is replacing the bank clearing house.
.. this answers your first question in first post about why users cant just collect transactions and deem them as valid independently

.....
different mining groups(clearing houses) collect cheques and decide which get to be in their list.

they put them into their own batch making sure there is no:
double payments.
payments using empty accounts
the signature matches the funders ID
the signature is unique to the cheque to ensure the cheque hasnt been edited

this batch of cheques is given a unique ID
the unique ID is made up of a complex calculation of all cheque numbers.
and the previous confirmed batch ID.

now to stop other bank clearing houses making multiple batches in milliseconds declaring them the sole central bank
the batch ID have to go through a lengthy process of of calculations. to get a special batch id with several leading zeros.

the first bank clearing house to get this result. and check that the data and ID correspond. wins
and that batch(block)) is declared the confirmed block. and all the transactions listed within it are declared as confirmed(cleared)

inshort dont accept a payment as final/cleared until its confirmed and in a block
8777  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the actual point of the many working parts of Bitcoin/blockchains? on: March 10, 2021, 08:30:01 PM
its not just a 10minute relay race of first passed the finish line
the winner also has to pass a drug test to make sure there is no nasty stuff(bad transactions) inside their body(block)

the first winner with a clean test(transaction list) result is accepted.

everyone then keeps that list(result) and memorialises it. and then the next race begins

a malicious miner at race 2 who wants to edit the results of race 1. has to run race 1 and then do race 2
but by that time malicious miner is at race 2 honest racers are on their 3rd race. so the malicious runner has to run 2x speed to catch up

it costs alot to run 2x the number of systems as the network. so he better be sure he can win and not get caught if he hopes to take the lead and get himself declared the new victor of the last few races and previous victors declared void
8778  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the actual point of the many working parts of Bitcoin/blockchains? on: March 10, 2021, 06:29:43 PM
just having block distributed does show they are valid. if all users agree on the content and then show they have the same block info

but then comes the risk of a malicious user saying heres 2 new blocks i found and seeing as im ahead of you by 2 blocks. follow me and keep my blocks.

so a mechanism has to be made to make it hard for anyone to just make a bunch of blocks instantly and game the other users

so in came the PoW. to ensure that a block was made by someone that put roughly 10minutes of highspeed power into it. thus unable to make 20 blocks in 1 second to cause network conflicts every second

by making it hard to make a chain of multiple blocks. its even harder to go back 5 blocks. edit the content of those blocks and then make a chain of 7 different blocks to overtake the average network and try getting them to delete their 5 for the new superior 7 height

with it taking hundreds of thousands of systems to create a blocks mined hash. some single person with their pc cant jsut edit it and get people to follow.
with it taking huge cost of hundreds of thousands of systems to mine a block. even malicious users wont be malicious as the costs for them are high if their trick doesnt work. so easier to play by the rules and get honest rewards
8779  Economy / Economics / Re: Why not "COVID" vaccine passports on a blockchain ID on: March 10, 2021, 03:13:03 PM
you dont need a database.
you can instead just have smart contracts

imagine a vaccine centre signs with their keypair a message of
patient ID: <your personal publickey>
date: 12/3/21
batch: 143

that signature is proof you got vaccinated by that vaccine centre.
each signature is unique but each signature has a validation method.

you can carry around that signature and that signature can verify its contents. with a simple check
you can prove you are that patient by you signing your own message that corresponds to your public key

no database. no blocks no chains needed
airlines dont need access to all patient records. dont even need to validate all records on some database
they just ask for the signature from those wanting to fly
8780  Economy / Economics / Re: random economic ideas on: March 10, 2021, 07:11:24 AM
That is an interesting idea, I would like to own a piece of a celebrity  Cheesy

The same could be done for TV actors aswell, because since Netflix TV Shows become much more important. It might also because of the pandemic that we can't really go to movies anymore but I kind of miss the block buster movies. The new James Bond movie has been postponed so many times already. What I am wondering is if it wouldn't be cheaper to just sell it to Netflix or so and try to get some cash in now? Nobody knows how long the corona pandemic is going to last and when the cinemas are going to open again. Maybe the whole movie industry has to start changing their plans and focus more on TV shows?

budgets are always a problem.
movie budgets are filled with high labour costs of actors.
an average TV show has budgets of $20k-$1m per episode per actor. where as movies are $1m-$100m

so subsidising a actors income via fanbase share trades can make actors want to do roles for less upfront income to then make the movie X more profitable to then get rewarded on the x profit factor of the shares formula
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