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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 12, 2014, 02:57:14 AM
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Yeah, but look at that massive sell wall @630 on BTC-e. Could be fake though.
What do you mean fake? Doesn't someone need to have his founds available in his account in order to put an order? He probably means that as soon as it is touched it will be removed. It's not there because he actually wants to sell his coins. |
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1430
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 10, 2014, 09:15:08 AM
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This little dump doesn't effect my current anlysis. We are still right on track:  short term, we see a downwards trending triangle. If we break to the UPSIDE, this will be very bullish and push us above the 654 USD fibonacci retracement:  This is basically all i read here every day for the last 2 weeks. People dumping and not to worry because we will go up. It's starting to look silly. I truly hate to sound like Tera but i have to be realistic. For weeks all we see are people dumping. There is nothing bullish about this. Really nothing. The ask side is getting bigger by the day. I don't care about trend lines and past bubble behaviour. All i see is the current situation and nothing points to Bitcoin going up. Let alone another bubble. |
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1431
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 09, 2014, 11:31:21 AM
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I get that but why would it suddenly rise? because it already happened twice, and many expect at least another bubble. So if we break 666/700 many could see another train leaving the station. Then add that miners cannot sell at a loss for long, and difficulty keeps going up. I can see it happen slowly over time but why is there this idea that sometime soon we'll see an explosion? I don't see a reason for it. Because in order to gain is essential to enter and exit a trade before the majority. When the train leaves, a run to jump in would be much in the cards. And the problem is tons of people with tons of coins are expecting this as well. When it turns out nothing is gonna happen then guess what those people will do. the whales already had lots of time and much lower prices to panic and dump. Maybe someone did dump on the way down this spring -to buy back lower and milk the small-timers I guess. I'm sorry I did not, but I'm definitely not a whale, just small-fry. They way i see it is if we don't go up soon we might crash hard.
A lot of people will move their money to something else.
do you see many better investment opportunities? It makes sense what you are saying but i'm not convinced. I sure hope you're right. |
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1432
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 09, 2014, 10:47:59 AM
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doesn't anyone else see the similarities?
The important part is post-bubble. There's no reason to think that it will behave the same as in 2011. There is no bad news this time to crush confidence. Actually, good news is still coming in just as it did on the way up. New merchants accepting every day. New exchanges and projects being worked on. Plenty of media coverage and people coming in. There is good news flowing everyday still we are not moving that's really some worry part. Exactly. None of the good news did anything to the price whatsoever. Yet people expect the price to magically go up sometime soon. I sure hope this magic will happen but i just can't find a reason for it. Try to be more patient. It's difficult to say exact day when the next major rise will happen. If you think about it, Silk Road was not so big reason for Bitcoin to rise 10x. Most people are sheeps and they follow the people they control the market...It is simple...When big whales will want it to happen, it will happen and sheeps will follow...maybe i am wrong though, but i think patient is the key in Bitcoin investing. I get that but why would it suddenly rise? I can see it happen slowly over time but why is there this idea that sometime soon we'll see an explosion? I don't see a reason for it. And the problem is tons of people with tons of coins are expecting this as well. When it turns out nothing is gonna happen then guess what those people will do. They way i see it is if we don't go up soon we might crash hard. A lot of people will move their money to something else. |
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1433
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 09, 2014, 10:10:42 AM
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doesn't anyone else see the similarities?
The important part is post-bubble. There's no reason to think that it will behave the same as in 2011. There is no bad news this time to crush confidence. Actually, good news is still coming in just as it did on the way up. New merchants accepting every day. New exchanges and projects being worked on. Plenty of media coverage and people coming in. There is good news flowing everyday still we are not moving that's really some worry part. Exactly. None of the good news did anything to the price whatsoever. Yet people expect the price to magically go up sometime soon. I sure hope this magic will happen but i just can't find a reason for it. |
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1435
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 08, 2014, 11:47:36 AM
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Look i understand we're on a speculation forum and predict things based on lines and what not but presenting detailed predictions for the next 6 months as facts is just stupid and a complete waste of time. It is 100% impossible to know what will happen the next 6 months.
source ? you are right, no one knows the future. i still do not think it is stupid or a waste of time to share expectations. my intention was to tell the folks who are expecting THE2014BUBBLE is inevitable and will start tomorrow that they may have to be a bit more patient and that there may be no bubble soon. Expectations i can totally live with that. You make it seem like facts. |
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1437
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 08, 2014, 11:24:48 AM
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Maybe newbish logic here, but to me it seems that bulls are not selling because they expect a price rise, so it drives the bubble, while bears expect the price go south, so they sell, drowning the potential bubble.
Why are you saying bears are needed to get the bubble inflate?
Well everyone can't be a bull otherwise we'd be at a million already 
there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...
Pretty decisive statement, a couple of months is an age in Bitcoin land. Im actually thinking the murmurs of the next bull run are being heard and in retrospect we could be looking back with hindsight and saying the general 2014 bubble started at the end of May. Predicting anything more than a week from now is as useless as it gets. It's just weird that people still do it. imho everybody who is writing in the speculation subforum, everyone who holds btc, everyone who is trading btc is making assumptions about the future of btc that go beyond the timeframe of 7 days. you call that weird ? I can't wait to see what happens when the big stash of coins from DPR go to auction (if this happens at all).
We'll probably drop to 100 for 2 months while waiting for the event to happen. Based on what happened this week.
I might get my coins out of cold storage for that one.
Quoting me making a sarcastic comment about a specific event also doesn't make much sense. |
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1438
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 08, 2014, 10:54:12 AM
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Maybe newbish logic here, but to me it seems that bulls are not selling because they expect a price rise, so it drives the bubble, while bears expect the price go south, so they sell, drowning the potential bubble.
Why are you saying bears are needed to get the bubble inflate?
Well everyone can't be a bull otherwise we'd be at a million already
there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...
Pretty decisive statement, a couple of months is an age in Bitcoin land. Im actually thinking the murmurs of the next bull run are being heard and in retrospect we could be looking back with hindsight and saying the general 2014 bubble started at the end of May. Predicting anything more than a week from now is as useless as it gets. It's just weird that people still do it. |
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1439
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 08, 2014, 10:28:12 AM
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Guys and girls - this situation is going to resolve itself just like the situation in the 400s. We bounced around high to low and mid to low 400s for many weeks. Finally, there just were no more sellers. None. And once that happened, the bulls ran wild.
Well, that is what we are seeing again. No buying, but less and less selling. So unless sellers start selling more soon, then the selling will eventually slow to a crawl again. At that time, our only way forward will be up.
Now this could take another week or so or more - who knows - its all just "speculation" that we love.
But, me, I'm watching the sellers, not the buyers, for clues on how low this goes and where the local bottom really is. Yeah I think there are just too many bulls expecting a bubble, can't go up when everyone is a bull unless there is a huge influx of new people getting into bitcoin. That's going to happen eventually but not as fast as people are thinking. Some impatient buyers have already sold and I see the number of bears increase again which is positive because we need them as fuel for the price to go up.  I don't expect a bubble any time soon but I do see 800-850 in the cards. there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring... Source? |
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