Reverse H&S yesterday - target above 460, then if we breaks 455 - there will be another H&S (less nicely looking) with even higher target 475.
The Chinese scare does not work any more.
I think we'll rebound significantly.
Yes it works. It works just as good as the first time. 1 rumour about closing whatever on Twitter right now and we'll be below 400 easily. |
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Pump dump repeat. Bitcoin makes some of the alt coins look good.
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cheap coins?
This will be so true at the end of 2016 it will be funny to read. +1 As for right now, we definitely need to see another significant spike down before we see a spike up IMHO. No we don't. People keep saying this over and over. At every price point possible. It's based on nothing. |
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weekly and daily, log
taking a decision now is risky IMO. We'll know before May, 19th where this goes.
To May 19th we must wait almost a month ... anything can happen during this month! 10th actually. So a week on Saturday. Then we have to wait another week for PBOC to say they still aren't happy. It will be the same shit as what happened many times already. |
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Without any prior introduction, I posted the following. Because no prior info was given, this must be treated as the sole expression of my wish: Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please. Chart1 & Chart2. This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it). Keywords: - (implicit) in BTC - (implicit) long duration at least 3 months (to adequately model "ever") - trigger condition breaching 435 - someone (anyone can take it!) - send me PM- much better than 1:1 odds for meWindjc's proposal: In 2014-3-30, the exponential trendline model gave a buy signal at $460 and the price has been unable to go below it for any extended time even after 4 weeks.
In 2013-11-23 it gave a sell signal at $872 (SlipperySlope's 0.40 confidence) or 2013-11-28 at $1,056 (my 0.45 confidence). It was also unable to stay above it for any extended time.
What odds do you want? As I would be betting to win less valuable coin, you shouldn't get much better than 50%. I think you will offer an unreasonable bet so that you don't have to make one at all. But let me know. Unreasonable? It's $30 to the trigger line (was $20 when I first called it). Are you willing to give 1:1 odds to me that price will hit $495 some point in the future? Of course not, you would not take that even at 10:1. So don't expect the same of me. Lol. You didn't even make an offer. Why am I not surprised? Since you are too chicken s***  to make a bet, here's one for you. Bet $50k with of btc Duration 30 days If we hit 435 on Stamp and don't hit 500 I win. If we hit 500 and not 435 you win If we hit both or neither its a draw. And we both donate $1000 worth of btc each to charity. Keywords: - in USD - short duration 30 days - trigger condition breaching 435 and breaching 500, with both/neither considered a tie (windjc's estimation 90% this will end in a tie) - aimed for me only, with insult - public- 1:1 odds, with charity clause* * EPILOGUE It is difficult to read the thread because of so many posts, especially if you are of the type that never checks the sources and relies on people. But then you will also get the objectively wrong idea of what is happening. Here I wanted to have a nice private bet with anyone who thinks that breaking 435 is imminent and is willing to give me great odds for defending it. This windjc turned into a public challenge directed against me, with different terms in every 6 parameters that are important in a bet. The bet itself seemed +EV for me so I decided to go on with it, but in the end there was not enough mutual agreement. As was perhaps the intention, windjc collected "fame" because I did not took his bet (why? do I also get points every time I propose things to people when it is not in their interest to comply?  ). In the meanwhile nobody took my bet (the one which i would have unequivocally lost last night). Nobody was even interested. I had estimated that probability for 435 holding should be 10% in general public's eyes, but I thought it was 20%. So I would have taken 7:1 odds for me, and lost almost straight away. Jesus Christ. Just saying yes i was wrong should've been enough. And would make you look like a decent person for once. Idiot. |
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That's not what I'm looking for. We know that Merchants Bank is cancelling accounts (simply look at BTCChina announcement yesterday and CHBTC's announcement on the 25th) There must be something else! Otherwise it's insider trading lol Look. Isn't it kinda of obvious that its just a matter of time now before deposit options are completely are almost completely eliminated? These exchanges are destined to move offshore. Well deposit options have already been eliminated. CHBTC, OKCOIN, BTCCHINA all froze fiat deposits. Unless these guys are now quietly withdrawing while they can and crashing the price, what are we waiting for? Chinese exchanges won't be banned. Cash deposit will still be accepted. However for large transfers you'll have to do offshore transfers What are we waiting for? The idiots on Stamp want to follow Huobi all the way down. Just like they did with Gox. After China is done they will find another exchange in trouble that can take us down. They are addicted to panic and losing money. They are the same people who go to casinos, lose money and keep going back. |
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Good news! NO FUD. BTCChina: http://www.weibo.com/2149945883/B1MStEjN0?mod=weibotimeSmall partners about bitcoin China suspended all news withdrawals are false news Bitcoin Chinese recharge and withdrawals everything is normal. If you need help, please call customer service phone 400-664-3033 Who knows if it's true. Human translation: Rumors about BTCChina suspending withdrawals are false. Recharge and withdrawals still working People don't care about good news. The market only reacts to bad news. That's why we keep going lower. |
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Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please. Chart1 & Chart2. This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it). wow! stamp at 425! Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have a Loser! Congratulations to rpietila! Here's your trophy   |
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ok, all you analyst, where is this going to land this time? lol I really thought we were through the worst of the China fears a few weeks ago..... I haven't been in here since, now with this drop I'm back looking for exspert" opinions. It is also beginning to take its toll on the alt coin markets which is usually where I spend most of my time  There is no such thing as Bitcoin experts. Edit: trading experts. |
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So no news?
Just people trying to take Bitcoin down and the usual idiots following then while losing all their money?
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Well done China. We tried to go up for several weeks. Every time there was a bull run it got killed by China FUD. after many tries people have given up and we returned to the bear market we were in for many months already.
Again the media will be all over it. Bitcoin crashed, Bitcoin is broke, Bitcoin is a joke.
Again potential investors will move on. This is just so fucking bad. This crash is really the last thing Bitcoin could use at this point.
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Can you idiots stop filling up whole pages with your pathetic attention seeking betting shit?
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looks like huobi started a pump again.
Guess what comes after the pump. |
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Why are we following a dying exchange? Why did we do that with Gox and now with Huobi? Once Huobi is gone will we start looking for another clusterfuck exchange so we can follow it?
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There may be a turnaround at or below 200$. So there's still enough space to the downside, imho.  First i think that graph looks real bad but then i realize that whole downfall is caused by MtGox and China fud. That gives me hope for the future. China and Mt Gox aren't over yet, they both have some way to run. Not denying that. I just have the feeling the market wants to go up but gets stopped because this shit every time. |
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There may be a turnaround at or below 200$. So there's still enough space to the downside, imho. First i think that graph looks real bad but then i realize that whole downfall is caused by MtGox and China fud. That gives me hope for the future. |
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Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please. Chart1 & Chart2. This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it). As much as i want to agree with you i never understand how people make these "never see again" claims. I too think we will go up again but 1 fud article from China in the next 5 minutes and we will be at 420 before you can blink your eyes. How can just rule that out? |
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There are no bids on Houbi ladies and gentleman.
This is a problem.
It looking more and more like a major decoupling of exchanges is coming soon ala Gox redux.
I understand that withdrawing BTC from Huobi and such is still possible? If so, I do not believe we can have Gox-style decoupling - arbitrage, a.k.a. dumping Chinese coins on Bitsamp and such is still possible. It was complete inability to withdraw anything from Gox that coused its prices to decouple. Yes but arbing only works for so long when you cant get money back into a Chinese exchange. That may be one reason why Chinese bears are dumping now - perhaps hoping to buy back at much lower price? EDIT: anyway, for transaction to occur, we need a buyer - and CNY on Huobi . So far the volume there is still nominally high, if true. A lot of bulls are now stuck in leveraged longs as they didn't expect the Caixin news. Now they have to make a decision: lose a bit of money and close their position, or lose a LOT of money. As always the smart people are holding. Keep in mind easily 95% of these traders end up losing money. Holders, unless Bitcoin dies out, keep their money and will make profit eventually. Depending where you bought in. |
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here's a question for you guys.
if china had never even let those exchanges start up in the first place, would the price be higher today? or lower?
What makes you think anybody here can answer that. Take a guess. It's the only thing you can do. |
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