Bryan Micon's Butterfly Labs Scammer Investigation including Josh Zerlan

[Rawted]

Seems they have stopped doing forum status updates, and only post on the shoutbox now. apr 1st no ship bet at bitbets is a lock.

17 Mar BFL_Josh (Shoutbox) - Got farther in the testing today. Things are looking positive. I hope to have some definitive answers tomorrow.

19 Mar BFL_Josh (Shoutbox) - Still debugging the test rig trying to find out specifically where the problem lies. I (...)

[1713867426]

1713867426

[1713867426]

1713867426

[1713867426]

1713867426

[1713867426]

1713867426

[Rawted]

whats the verdict?  Can I make a big bet on the Apr. 1 Delivery NOT happening?  Im thinking about placing a bet at bitbet?  How can bitbet even make money paying out such a ridic bet?  Isnt it a given that it will not happen at this point because if it was, BFL would be going nuts wild about shipping them out this coming Monday.... If they dont ship Monday/Tuesday there is no way they can be there by Apr 1  with time to set up and prove... I guess all it takes is one single person to show one for the bet to be lost? I guess which is totally possible, both with and without manipulation... 

The I mean, shit, BFL could literally bet all their pre-order money that they will not deliver by Apr 1 and then they could win the bet through total control.  Craziness...

0% chance BFL will ship by end of march, however i think you're misunderstanding how the bet payouts and calculations work. The below is from the bitbet FAQ.

How are winnings calculated?
Every bet has two sides. Every bettor on the winning side will receive as follows : 99% of his original bet sum (1% goes to BitBet.us) plus 99% of his bet times the total bet by the losing side multiplied by the winning side total weight and divided by his bet's total weight.

For a practical example consider the famous Josh Zerlan bet. Total losing pool was 791.28 BTC. Total winning weight was 63`783`932. Let's consider the first bet, 0.11 BTC. It got in at 99`922 weight. This bet would thus receive 99% of 0.11, so 0.1089 plus 99% of 0.11 * 791.28 * 99`922 / 63`783`932 = 0.134991959. So in total he should receive 0.243891959 (The amt listed on the site, ie 0.24389335 differs slightly. The reason is that the loser pool is listed as truncated to two decimals for space considerations, but the actual engine uses the full value. This will make us constantly if slightly underevaluate winnings.)

An important point to consider is that if the "plus" side of that calculation does not exceed the 1% charged by BitBet it is possible to win less BTC than the original bet. So for instance if someone bets 10`000 BTC and the losing side consists of 1 BTC only then the 10`000 bettor will have lost 100 BTC in BitBet fees for a maximum upside of 1 BTC (because obviously he can't win more than what the other people have bet).

The same applies for late bets, if the odds are even money (1:1) then a bet made at weight 1`000 or under is unlikely to walk away whole, even should it win. If the odds are 10:1 in favour of the winning side that weight cutoff becomes 10`000. If the odds are 10:1 against the winning side then that weight cutoff becomes 100. As a general rule of thumb the sooner you bet, the more BTC you stand to gain.

[Monster Tent]

Another turd floats to the surface regarding Josh and our Boxes full of Fans friends.

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/USCOURTS-ksd-2_03-cv-02287

may just be a coincidence that a guy with the SAME name from the SAME state had this "happen to him.   Sort of like all the lemmings they got to post that Sonny the lottery scammer was a DIFFERENT person then the BFL Sonny (the ASIC expert).   They even got that magazine to write an article explaining these coincidences.

So Josh, do tell:  Did you get sued for watching a little Cinemax without paying for it?  Or were you a willing participant in another criminal enterprise?

Tell us the story of how you were fighting the man by charging trailer park dwellers half price for Fox News.

Is there anyone working for BFL who doesnt have a criminal record ? 

[creativex]

I think one of Jody's chickens has a clean record.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

I think one of Jody's chickens has a clean record.

Did!



The details are a tad sketchy, but it had something to do with her and Josh's poodle in a KC park.

[creativex]

LOL

Yer an outrage PG.

[Micon]

updated OP to add Josh Zerlan's DirecTV hacking past:

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/USCOURTS-ksd-2_03-cv-02287

Also to add a working theory:

Josh Zerlan seems to know almost nothing about ASIC manufacturing, so how did he get that job?  What about this recent post about how Josh appears to be a customer of BFL as well?  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=157329.0 

just spitballin' here, but what if josh bought a few minirigs?  he runs Eclipse mining pool, and seems to have set up his own mining rigs.  Of course he would be a natural BFL customer... so he has some pre-orders, then maybe they talk him into working for hardware or something.  I wonder if JZ is even getting paid...

I don't know who the puppetmaster is, but Sonny or that Nassir guy seem top of the list.

my 2x satoshi's

[marra]

refusing full btc refunds is like there is no refund...

[Entropy-uc]

updated OP to add Josh Zerlan's DirecTV hacking past:

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/USCOURTS-ksd-2_03-cv-02287

Also to add a working theory:

Josh Zerlan seems to know almost nothing about ASIC manufacturing, so how did he get that job?  What about this recent post about how Josh appears to be a customer of BFL as well?  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=157329.0  

just spitballin' here, but what if josh bought a few minirigs?  he runs Eclipse mining pool, and seems to have set up his own mining rigs.  Of course he would be a natural BFL customer... so he has some pre-orders, then maybe they talk him into working for hardware or something.  I wonder if JZ is even getting paid...

I don't know who the puppetmaster is, but Sonny or that Nassir guy seem top of the list.

my 2x satoshi's

Josh and GigaVPS clearly had advance notice of the plan to announce an ASIC product.

Both of them dumped mining bonds onto GBSLE days in advance of the pre-announce announcement.  This gave them both buckets of BTC to buy gear with, and allowed them to sell "stocks" that were hammered down by the news of impending ASIC shipments.

Given the attack dog response from Josh when I pointed out taking credit card payments for products you aren't shipping is against credit card processing rules, I think he was employed by BFL, or invested in BFL, long before he came out of the closet.

[CharlesPonzi]

updated OP to add Josh Zerlan's DirecTV hacking past:

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/USCOURTS-ksd-2_03-cv-02287

Also to add a working theory:

Josh Zerlan seems to know almost nothing about ASIC manufacturing, so how did he get that job?  What about this recent post about how Josh appears to be a customer of BFL as well?  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=157329.0 

just spitballin' here, but what if josh bought a few minirigs?  he runs Eclipse mining pool, and seems to have set up his own mining rigs.  Of course he would be a natural BFL customer... so he has some pre-orders, then maybe they talk him into working for hardware or something.  I wonder if JZ is even getting paid...

I don't know who the puppetmaster is, but Sonny or that Nassir guy seem top of the list.

my 2x satoshi's

Sonny is breaking his parole by operating  company.

[Micon]

BFL's testing videos are so hot right now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C4bgho5JSI

nothing of substance here, no hashing, the lights dim at ~ :17 seconds, better chance of BFL offices catching on fire now, so that's good.

Is there an ASIC chip even on that thing?  What was that about "new boards?" 

[jml]

I decided to ask for a refund for a jalapeno (I wanted to give bfl the benefit of the doubt) and see if they delivered before March. As the deadline date wad close to paypals 45 day refund policy i decided to open a dispute. I got the refund immediately, but I noticed that there was an adjustment fee of 5 dollars. Has anyone noticed this?

EDIT
====

$5.72 to be exact.

[MooC Tals]

I was threatening a refund in January if I could not get a confirmed ship date. So I don't blame you for pulling the plug. However the bastards jacked the price on the units and now if they start delivering it will cost you 270 dollars. pfft BFL can suck my **** I'll never buy from them even if they end up being the last company on earth.

I have been following Joshes lies for a little under a year and he never tells the truth. BFL lol what a joke.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

I decided to ask for a refund for a jalapeno (I wanted to give bfl the benefit of the doubt) and see if they delivered before March. As the deadline date wad close to paypals 45 day refund policy i decided to open a dispute. I got the refund immediately, but I noticed that there was an adjustment fee of 5 dollars. Has anyone noticed this?

Screenshot?

I know previously on eBay some scammy buyers would "adjust" the payment costs and get away with a $10 or $20 discount. Maybe BFL is doing the same thing, except they make off with $5?

[jml]

I decided to ask for a refund for a jalapeno (I wanted to give bfl the benefit of the doubt) and see if they delivered before March. As the deadline date wad close to paypals 45 day refund policy i decided to open a dispute. I got the refund immediately, but I noticed that there was an adjustment fee of 5 dollars. Has anyone noticed this?

Screenshot?

I know previously on eBay some scammy buyers would "adjust" the payment costs and get away with a $10 or $20 discount. Maybe BFL is doing the same thing, except they make off with $5?

[jml]

I was threatening a refund in January if I could not get a confirmed ship date. So I don't blame you for pulling the plug. However the bastards jacked the price on the units and now if they start delivering it will cost you 270 dollars. pfft BFL can suck my **** I'll never buy from them even if they end up being the last company on earth.

I have been following Joshes lies for a little under a year and he never tells the truth. BFL lol what a joke.

I wrote to BFL with the same query and I didn't get a reply on shipping dates, so I pulled the plug before my 45 days ran out with PP.

[creativex]

I was threatening a refund in January if I could not get a confirmed ship date. So I don't blame you for pulling the plug. However the bastards jacked the price on the units and now if they start delivering it will cost you 270 dollars. pfft BFL can suck my **** I'll never buy from them even if they end up being the last company on earth.

I have been following Joshes lies for a little under a year and he never tells the truth. BFL lol what a joke.

I wrote to BFL with the same query and I didn't get a reply on shipping dates, so I pulled the plug before my 45 days ran out with PP.

When the General Manager is telling investors not to bother her with annoying questions like "When will I receive what I paid for months ago?", then yeah...it's time to get out.

[Micon]

1)  The BFL refund game has been interesting to watch.  This latest fee is just 1 sprinkle on the icing on the cake IMO

2)  The price increases on their site IMO seems to be a play against what must be an ever-increasing stream of refunds.  The owner of this business is a convicted mail order scammer, so these techniques are to be expected IMO

3)  While it seems they had *something* they claim to be hot-hashing in the LukeJr video (once you put a few months behind that video certain entities are going to look extremely foolish) The once again deafening silence will have me looking for multi-month multi-100 coin wagers against them shipping.

4)  JoshZerlan.com continues to fly Josh's flag.  7000+ views:   http://youtu.be/UlWrmIqGs3Y?t=2m16s

[jml]

What is an adjustment fee?

I suspect we don't get them in the UK due to the Distant Sellers Act.

It was a UK order.

[jml]

1)  The BFL refund game has been interesting to watch.  This latest fee is just 1 sprinkle on the icing on the cake IMO

2)  The price increases on their site IMO seems to be a play against what must be an ever-increasing stream of refunds.  The owner of this business is a convicted mail order scammer, so these techniques are to be expected IMO

3)  While it seems they had *something* they claim to be hot-hashing in the LukeJr video (once you put a few months behind that video certain entities are going to look extremely foolish) The once again deafening silence will have me looking for multi-month multi-100 coin wagers against them shipping.

4)  JoshZerlan.com continues to fly Josh's flag.  7000+ views:   http://youtu.be/UlWrmIqGs3Y?t=2m16s

@Micon, I thought that the questions you formulated to Josh were fair to get a decent answer. I was surprised to see Josh's reacting negatively towards you which is just echoing what sort of company he is part of; unprofessional PR and hiding the truth that perhaps there is no intention to ship and just keeping pre-orders coming in, hence funding their 0% interest loans from pre-orders on other activities. It simply does not give confidence to customers who have pre-orders.

Despite that BFL is a manufacturer and control ASIC bitcoin miners, they are still selling as a business to customers (B2C) and that does not excuse them from keeping pre-orders and rescheduling shipping dates.