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Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3007921 times)
NiteShdw
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September 27, 2013, 05:38:30 PM
 #11261

I cancelled in Early Sept. $20k in refunds. I reinvested it in a much more lucrative enterprise.
The amazing response to our Pre-Orders for Batch Producers has caused us to look at shutting down the Pre-Orders early because we no longer have any in stock.
The market is changing quickly. CEE are the new thing, much bigger than Bitcoin, I believe. And virtually ZERO competition.

What are you talking about?
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bitrebel
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September 27, 2013, 05:48:01 PM
 #11262

I cancelled in Early Sept. $20k in refunds. I reinvested it in a much more lucrative enterprise.
The amazing response to our Pre-Orders for Batch Producers has caused us to look at shutting down the Pre-Orders early because we no longer have any in stock.
The market is changing quickly. CEE are the new thing, much bigger than Bitcoin, I believe. And virtually ZERO competition.

What are you talking about?

Colored Easter Egg Batch Producers, for God Sake, already.
Look at the pics of our facility a few pages back. We are hatshing at 400 CEE/S.
Getting Pre-Orders like CRAZY!
We're about to shut down all Pre-Orders completely because we are practically SOLD OUT!
50 BTC each. What a deal!

Why does Bitrebel have 65+ Ignores?
Because Bitrebel says things that some people do not want YOU to hear.
Puppet
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September 27, 2013, 05:57:24 PM
 #11263

Back in June, on the 11th, KnC said they had 890 preorders.
https://www.kncminer.com/news?page=3

There is a list of known preorders here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=249065.0

If I count the numberpreorders on that list up to june 11th, I get 95 jupiters and 47 Saturns. That means ~16% of all preorders were on that list

The total number of preorders for batch one on that list is 146 Jupiters and 68 Saturns. If the same % of customers posted in that thread as for earlier orders, that would mean KnC actually got 6.2x more, or
589 Jupiters and 291 Saturns.

589x400GH + 291x200 = 293TH

Substantial, but no were near enough to quadruple difficulty.
Micky25
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September 27, 2013, 05:57:58 PM
 #11264

Obviously all the above is kinda ridiculous, because if any company could be able to guarantee any profit by mining they would just mine themselves. Mining with completely specific hardware and not with commodity electronics is leading us to super-professionalized mining scene, where amateurs will be totally cut out. This process is going much faster than some want to believe.

I thought the same before, but then some guys brought up the notion that any large scale commercial operation in this sector has higher operating costs than an individual in the long turn. The hashrate is linear.
Henchman24
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September 27, 2013, 05:59:12 PM
 #11265

1,000 units 500 PH/s 500 Units (0.25 PH/s) per day.

I think you're still off by a factor of 1000 there.  1000 units = ~500 TH/s, no?
r1senfa17h
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September 27, 2013, 06:02:09 PM
 #11266

Back in June, on the 11th, KnC said they had 890 preorders.
https://www.kncminer.com/news?page=3

There is a list of known preorders here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=249065.0

If I count the number of the number of rigs preorders on that list up to june 11th, I get 95 jupiters and 47 Saturns. That means ~16% of all preorders were on that list

The total number of preorders for batch one on that list is 146 Jupiters and 68 Saturns. If the same % of customers posted in that thread as for earlier orders, that would mean KnC actually got 6.2x more, or
589 Jupiters and 291 Saturns.

589x400GH + 291x200 = 293TH

Substantial, but no were near enough to quadruple difficulty.


Each of those 890 orders may have more than one device in their order, therefore your extrapolation represents a bare minimum estimation. I do, however, share your sentiment that quadruple difficulty is absurd.

1N3o5Kyvb4iECiJ3WKScKY8xTVXxf1hMvA
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September 27, 2013, 06:09:00 PM
 #11267

Obviously all the above is kinda ridiculous, because if any company could be able to guarantee any profit by mining they would just mine themselves. Mining with completely specific hardware and not with commodity electronics is leading us to super-professionalized mining scene, where amateurs will be totally cut out. This process is going much faster than some want to believe.

I thought the same before, but then some guys brought up the notion that any large scale commercial operation in this sector has higher operating costs than an individual in the long turn. The hashrate is linear.

"Some guy" was dead wrong.
Large operations have substantially lower initial costs -- from gear quantity discounts to industrial electrical rates.
These savings could be further augmented with curiosities like mining bonds, mining futures & other amusing financial instruments designed to part idiots & their coin.

Get ready, wear makeup.

Edit:  please understand that KNC is not the only company dumping hashrate onto the network.  The difficulty has been climbing quite nicely without a single KNC product hashing.  BFL seems to be churning, ASICminer & Avalon are still with us, and we have no idea how much Bitfury will put out, other than  GHash.IO Pool Speed:5m: 217.44 Th/s15m: 214.38 Th/s1h: 214.62 Th/s1d: 204.93 Th/s.  And then there's the rest of the latecomers.
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September 27, 2013, 06:09:27 PM
 #11268

Each of those 890 orders may have more than one device in their order, therefore your extrapolation represents a bare minimum estimation.

Good point. However looking at the published preorders, the average order consists of 1.14 units. Its not going to change a lot unless there are some really large orders we dont know about.
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September 27, 2013, 06:12:11 PM
 #11269

I'm sorry guys & gals, but this time Xallia & Crumbs are right.

When I ordered, It was for September DELIVERY, not September shipping.

Call it what you will... Fact is...   Come Monday... If the miners are not delivered... The miners are late.


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NetTime
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September 27, 2013, 06:18:12 PM
 #11270

I'm sorry guys & gals, but this time Xallia & Crumbs are right.

When I ordered, It was for September DELIVERY, not September shipping.

Call it what you will... Fact is...   Come Monday... If the miners are not delivered... The miners are late.

Yeah, this sucks.
merv77
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September 27, 2013, 06:20:38 PM
 #11271

wasn't there something about being in the first "1-500" list or something like that.

I actually bought someone elses order to get into this "1-500" list.  remember the reselling "1-500" fiasco... What was all that about???
Micky25
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September 27, 2013, 06:27:43 PM
 #11272

Obviously all the above is kinda ridiculous, because if any company could be able to guarantee any profit by mining they would just mine themselves. Mining with completely specific hardware and not with commodity electronics is leading us to super-professionalized mining scene, where amateurs will be totally cut out. This process is going much faster than some want to believe.

I thought the same before, but then some guys brought up the notion that any large scale commercial operation in this sector has higher operating costs than an individual in the long turn. The hashrate is linear.

"Some guy" was dead wrong.
Large operations have substantially lower initial costs -- from gear quantity discounts to industrial electrical rates.


I totally agree on this, but they have exponential higher fixed costs (AC, rent, maintenance, staff) as well, while income drops at same rate as it does for us.
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September 27, 2013, 06:36:10 PM
 #11273

Where do you get electricity cheaper for industrial use than for residential use?

I was told that around here (Nova Scotia) home users are in effect subsidised, if you go industrial you not only pay more but also, if you go big, will end up needing three-phase and such which is more expensive again.

I guess in "screw the poor" nations though they wouldn't be subsidising home users?

("If they want light, let them stay at work!" Wink Cheesy)

(Maybe it might also have to do with the fact you seem to need electricity in order to get a residence permit saying the building is fit for people to live in.)

-MarkM-

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DeathAndTaxes
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September 27, 2013, 06:42:39 PM
 #11274

Where do you get electricity cheaper for industrial use than for residential use?

It may vary from country to country or even power company to power company but generally speaking power companies offer lower rates for large commercial/industrial customers.  Small businesses generally pay about the same as residential but above 30KW prices are lower and above 200 KW or so they are significantly lower.  Also companies which need sustained power (i.e. 30KW continually over an entire month) can contract (they pay 30KW regardless of what their sustained usage is) and get even lower rates.   Power companies love sustained usage customers because it is much easier to calculate and load balance.
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September 27, 2013, 06:45:33 PM
 #11275

Yeah thats what I thought, but I was told otherwise. Not directly by the power corp though (it is a monopoly here, Nova Scotia Power) so maybe the guy who told me didn't really actually know what he was on about afterall.

Maybe it is patronage or something, if the politicians control the thing, maybe there is no cheap rate for industry but if your industry gets the right politician suddenly you get a government subsidy or something instead.

-MarkM-

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DeathAndTaxes
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September 27, 2013, 06:47:11 PM
 #11276

Yeah thats what I thought, but I was told otherwise. Not directly by the power corp though (it is a monopoly here, Nova Scotia Power) so maybe the guy who told me didn't really actually know what he was on about afterall.

-MarkM-


It would look like he is incorrect.  Residential customers may be partially subsidized but they still pay more per kWh.  Then again with residential rates @ $15 per kWh in the long run it is unlikely they will be profitable.  Even leasing warehouse space to get large commercial rates wouldn't make much sense as they are still $0.09 per kWh.  There are parts of the US where large commercial power users pay <$0.03 per kWh.

http://www.nspower.ca/en/home/residential/billing/powerrates/default.aspx

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September 27, 2013, 06:49:06 PM
 #11277

I feel like everybody here is in front of an apple store waiting for their next crappy phone  Grin

Did you also take a champaign miner?
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September 27, 2013, 06:50:25 PM
 #11278

Where do you get electricity cheaper for industrial use than for residential use?

It may vary from country to country or even power company to power company but generally speaking power companies offer lower rates for large commercial/industrial customers.  Small businesses generally pay about the same as residential but above 30KW prices are lower and above 200 KW or so they are significantly lower.  Also companies which need sustained power (i.e. 30KW continually over an entire month) can contract (they pay 30KW regardless of what their sustained usage is) and get even lower rates.   Power companies love sustained usage customers because it is much easier to calculate and load balance.


Where I live (Europe) electricity for industrial uses is WAY cheaper than for residential uses. Anyhow, that's pretty much irrelevant. Professional operations will be setup in places where electricity is almost free. In Kuwait, for example, maximum fare is $0.01Kw/h. In North Africa (and I know this first hand), Government incentivizes foreign investment by giving multiple benefits, one of them being free electricity until one point, and "almost free" (<0.01kw/h) after that point. Many energy-hungry industries are flourishing in North Africa because of this.

An individual will NEVER be able to be as efficient as a corporation in a business as is BTC mining as its currently conceived.

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September 27, 2013, 06:52:09 PM
 #11279

I'm sorry guys & gals, but this time Xallia & Crumbs are right.

When I ordered, It was for September DELIVERY, not September shipping.

Call it what you will... Fact is...   Come Monday... If the miners are not delivered... The miners are late.

thanks. much appreciate this statement..
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September 27, 2013, 07:00:32 PM
 #11280

Where I live (Europe) electricity for industrial uses is WAY cheaper than for residential uses. Anyhow, that's pretty much irrelevant.

Agreed GPU miners in Europe other than those where someone else was paying the power bill ("free power") were the first to drop out.  Right now hardware costs dominate but over the next year prices will drop, mining margins will be compressed and just like GPU mining power will make up a larger portion of the bill.

Quote
Professional operations will be setup in places where electricity is almost free. In Kuwait, for example, maximum fare is $0.01Kw/h. In North Africa (and I know this first hand), Government incentivizes foreign investment by giving multiple benefits, one of them being free electricity until one point, and "almost free" (<0.01kw/h) after that point. Many energy-hungry industries are flourishing in North Africa because of this.

One also has to consider the geopolitical risk as well.  Ask companies how much they lost when Chavez started nationalizing foreign assets in Venezuela.

Quote
An individual will NEVER be able to be as efficient as a corporation in a business as is BTC mining as its currently conceived.
Never is a strong word.  A company may have cheaper power and mining hardware (although I think in time margins will be so compressed it won't be much cheaper) but it has more expensive "everything else."  Imagine a hypothetical miner in 2015.   He buys mining boards (which by now are very low margin) he constructs his own case/frame powers it from his old ATX power supply, and puts it next to a window with a box fan.  Additional cost beyond hashing equipment and power: ~$0.00.

You can't do that for a PH/s or more.  Take the price of the business property lease, add in employees, add in security (you aren't going to leave you $50M in miners alone at night are you), add in insurance cost, add in fire suppression (might be mandatory in some areas), throw in business taxes, and pile on the additional energy and capital costs for 800 KW of industrial chillers, etc.   Even mundane stuff like enough racks to mount 1 PH/s (you aren't going to just leave them on the floor are you, and the cost of an electrician to run enough drops to power 1,000 or more systems all add up.  All those are Diseconomies of scale.  The company may be cheaper but GH/s but it isn't 10x cheaper like the raw power costs might suggest.  The last thing to consider is cost of capital.  After this gold rush period is over mining isn't a particularly attractive venture from a risk vs reward point of view.  Many investors may look at the small reward, the outsized risk, and the fact that profits are largely determined by the actions of outsiders and simply pass on the millions necessary to build up such a mining farm.


One thing I am particularly interested in is using the "waste heat".  For a large operation (say 1 PH/s = 800 KW = 1 million BTU/hr) they have a lot of waste heat but it has no value.  It actually has negative value as the company will spend money both on hardware and energy to remove that heat.  On the other hand a home user could use waste heat to preheat hot water (free hot water for the rest of your life), and in the winter supplement heating the residence.  With GPU rigs they are too bulky, complex, and skill intensive.  However take some ASICS put them in a compact sealed box, cold water in, hot water out and that "waste heat" suddenly has value.  I am doing some experiments right now.  Interesting stuff.

That being said I do believe large commercial players will make up a significant portion of the network capacity in the future.  I still think hobbyists and small home farmers will exist however they will be in areas of the world with lower than average energy prices (<$0.10 per kWh), generally cooler climates, and may look to thinks like using waste heat to boost ROI%.





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