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 Author Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com  (Read 3039448 times)
AussieHash
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 September 25, 2013, 07:09:34 PM

In the meantime, everyone should get used to the new number: 148.819.199

Difficulty and network hashrate, how do they differ?  If one were to look at at the return on a fixed hashrate, say 10GH/s, and the network hashrate doubles, would the BTC returned per week on that 10GH/s halve?  Or does it take a doubling of the difficulty to halve the return on that 10GH/s - understanding we're talking probability not absolutes.

Difficulty and hashrate and perfectly linear.   If network hash rate doubles, then difficulty doubles (eventually), and the GROSS return on x GH/s is cut perfectly in half.  The net return is reduced by more than 50% because the electrical cost remains fixed.

Based on existing (not future) pre-orders we are looking at 6 PH/s min by end of Dec.  If you want to be more conservative you should consider 8 PH/s.

1 PH/s ~= 140 mil difficulty
1 billion difficulty ~= 7 PH/s

If you want the exact formulas

hashrate = (2^32 * difficulty) / 600
difficulty = (600 * hashrate) / 2^32

Remember the network/protocol has no way on "knowing" the hashrate (and neither do any sites which chart it).  We can only estimate the hashrate based on the frequency that blocks are found.

I believe the above is only an approximation of the target calculation, see https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

Code:
#include <iostream>
#include <cmath>

inline float fast_log(float val)
{
int * const exp_ptr = reinterpret_cast <int *>(&val);
int x = *exp_ptr;
const int log_2 = ((x >> 23) & 255) - 128;
x &= ~(255 << 23);
x += 127 << 23;
*exp_ptr = x;

val = ((-1.0f/3) * val + 2) * val - 2.0f/3;
return ((val + log_2) * 0.69314718f);
}

float difficulty(unsigned int bits)
{
static double max_body = fast_log(0x00ffff), scaland = fast_log(256);
return exp(max_body - fast_log(bits & 0x00ffffff) + scaland * (0x1d - ((bits & 0xff000000) >> 24)));
}

int main()
{
std::cout << difficulty(0x1b0404cb) << std::endl;
return 0;
}
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frankenmint
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 September 25, 2013, 07:20:10 PM

by the way...people do calculations with preorders and will state preorders as a linear function of the order number...obviously this is wrong because there are duplicated orders, abandoned orders, and cancelled orders.  I would also be willing to venture that around April/May 2014 we will see an exodus of hashingpower leaving bitcoin as the sub 400 GH/s folks are switching to alt-chains because of the diminished BTC return from mining efforts.

DPoS
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 September 25, 2013, 07:34:52 PM

Anyone looking at the mining dashboard estimates before buying ANY rigs now...that's got to be a cooler. You struggle to find anything that will reach break even on there now, except the Jupiter delivered in Sept/ Oct and the price is the november discount one not the price anyone actually likely to get one in those months paid.

Even if it's not accurate it's bound to make people think twice unlike 2 or 3 months back when it looked a lot rosier if not exactly bright.

I think it's possible that miners will become much harder to sell, and even moreso on pre-order given the near future losses they are likely to make. Some serious price cuts would be required to improve that.

Even at 5k, would you buy a Jupiter today knowing it would arrive in mid November and never break even? That's looking likely now. So who is going to be buying them?

Perhaps users who figure getting bitcoin to spend on the slik road is safer via mining then legal tender.

at least someone sees that there are other 'returns' considered than just the 'basic ROI' that I tried to spell out...   there's a couple others if you sit back and think for a while

but no..  most people here think that their situation is the only one, and everyone who ignores it is a 'dumb investor'.   Yes there are some dumb ones, and others who get duped into groupbuys with outright lies, etc but it is laughable to think that all miners are just in it for the strict 'if no ROI than better to just buy BTC' mentality.. but keep yer' blinders on and keep complaining, it's all good

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kingcoin
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 September 25, 2013, 08:28:52 PM

Yeah. I don't know why they chose not to do testing. I guess they figured they'd get the chips a day or two earlier without it.

As I've mentioned before the test just takes a second to run. The infrastructure for running the tests are already in the fab. My reply to the question was that they could spend some time generating the STIL file and hire somebody else to do the rack assembly for a few hours.
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Glow Stick Dance!

 September 25, 2013, 08:29:37 PM

Micky25
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 September 25, 2013, 08:39:56 PM

-Redacted-
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 September 25, 2013, 09:26:27 PM

Yes, everyone seems to think that they know how things should be done better than the experts that are actually doing those things.  It's beyond tedious.  If everyone is such a fucking expert about everything, why haven't you started your own companies?

I have never, ever seen so many incredibly lame, completely ignorant armchair jockies posting in one thread before.
frankenmint
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 September 25, 2013, 09:29:16 PM

Yes, everyone seems to think that they know how things should be done better than the experts that are actually doing those things.  It's beyond tedious.  If everyone is such a fucking expert about everything, why haven't you started your own companies?

I have never, ever seen so many incredibly lame, completely ignorant armchair jockies posting in one thread before.

I would except I can't afford the NRE

on a serious note, do we have anymore details on that teaser video?  do we have any news on the chips leaving the packaging house and being "en route?"  Its humpDay...going on Thursday in Stockholm I'm not worried just yet about my hardware (but I am totally concerned about my 1.5 coin which i stand to lose from bitbet if they fail on the whole overdeliver "on time".

efodix
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 September 25, 2013, 09:29:45 PM

I'm am of the Jurassic park school of thought (Life finds a way and adapts to seek advantages with the resources available)  - With the amount of dollars thrown into mining hardware - the participants of the system will find substitute methods to realize a return on investment wether it be through mining an alt-coin or through a different mechansim where Asics could be utilized for something else that generates virtual or real revenue.  There will be incentives to foster the creation of these mechansims so that "new" pool operators, "new" services providers, and "new" opportunities to realize a potential ROI are necessary...this incentive remains true both for small time fish like us individuals as well as for someone like bitfountain or ICEdrill who has the ability to have large amounts of hashpower that would be electrically not cost effective if they were to continue to mine as they currently do.

I could be totally wrong here....but if I'm not, then all of us who bought in early, all those who bought in onto the block erupters, all those who got their bfl hardware very late or their avalon K16 hella late will be able to recover their initial investment and who knows perhaps see a gain.  I PROMISE you guys that who acted as naysayers to those who still took the risk will feel like an idiot for doing such.

Gotta love the internet, it amazes me to see the posts from back in 2010 and 2011 of people speculating to want to dump a quick 300 bucks on BTC and those who said don't bother its just a fad and you'll just lose like any otc stock...those naysayers also happen to be "these naysayers"  albeit moreso reasonable with all the mining calculators and leigons of hardware vendors and diy folks comming around.

If history were to repeat itself and we were to see the same linear rate of growth as a function of percentage, wouldn't it be reasonable by BTC track record to expect a price to break the 1000 USD barrier?  Would that change the argument of buy and hold vs buy a miner, HELL NO (you still lost your ass if you bought a miner with BTC or cash in hand that could be used to buy/hold btc).

Finally, I'd be willing to bet that many of you, like me, used a line of credit, something that couldn't be used to secure btc to hold, to be able to pay for mining hardware.  I don't know about you, but a line of credit is much easier to use than to have built up cash in hand that you would be willing to invest onto buying BTC and holding.

When someone says ROI, ask yourself, if I put in 100 dollars onto a bet and I won 100 dollars, did I see a return on my gamble?  NO I just got my money back!

Yeah, cause there's just so much real world applications for double SHA256, the  possibilities are endless! You might as well go and buy a few tulip buds.

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 September 25, 2013, 09:34:38 PM

...
I have never, ever seen so many incredibly lame, completely ignorant armchair jockies posting in one thread before.

Lurk moar.

frankenmint
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 September 25, 2013, 09:45:11 PM

Yeah, cause there's just so much real world applications for double SHA256, the  possibilities are endless! You might as well go and buy a few tulip buds.

Just like the internet in 1995....you can't see what hasn't been yet created (the amount of available ASICS processing power is very high and could potentially be monetized other than just mining coins)....Plus FWIW there are shitons of people who make a viable living doing stuff that we would scoff at - janitorial businesses, fast food propritors, ditch diggers, and yes, tulip growers.

Henchman24
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 September 25, 2013, 10:06:04 PM

Yeah, cause there's just so much real world applications for double SHA256, the  possibilities are endless! You might as well go and buy a few tulip buds.

Just like the internet in 1995....you can't see what hasn't been yet created (the amount of available ASICS processing power is very high and could potentially be monetized other than just mining coins)....Plus FWIW there are shitons of people who make a viable living doing stuff that we would scoff at - janitorial businesses, fast food propritors, ditch diggers, and yes, tulip growers.

I'm guessing his tulip remark was a reference to the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble, rather than a slur on tulip growers.
erk
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 September 25, 2013, 10:11:08 PM

Yeah, cause there's just so much real world applications for double SHA256, the  possibilities are endless! You might as well go and buy a few tulip buds.

Just like the internet in 1995....you can't see what hasn't been yet created (the amount of available ASICS processing power is very high and could potentially be monetized other than just mining coins)....Plus FWIW there are shitons of people who make a viable living doing stuff that we would scoff at - janitorial businesses, fast food propritors, ditch diggers, and yes, tulip growers.

I'm guessing his tulip remark was a reference to the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble, rather than a slur on tulip growers.
Tulips were silly, flowers perish quickly, crypto does not.
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 September 25, 2013, 10:11:39 PM

Yeah, cause there's just so much real world applications for double SHA256, the  possibilities are endless! You might as well go and buy a few tulip buds.

Just like the internet in 1995....you can't see what hasn't been yet created (the amount of available ASICS processing power is very high and could potentially be monetized other than just mining coins)....Plus FWIW there are shitons of people who make a viable living doing stuff that we would scoff at - janitorial businesses, fast food propritors, ditch diggers, and yes, tulip growers.

I'm guessing his tulip remark was a reference to the Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble, rather than a slur on tulip growers.
Historic tulip bulb bubble burn!

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frankenmint
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 September 25, 2013, 10:14:53 PM

are we going through a 2013 tulip bubble?  no.  Are there people out there who still grow tulips for resale....yes!  I was simply taking his relevant example and giving an unrelated rebuttal for the sake of derailing KNC news thread even further.. you know that's just soooooo awesome to do and all.

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 September 25, 2013, 10:17:59 PM

are we going through a 2013 tulip bubble?  no.  Are there people out there who still grow tulips for resale....yes!  I was simply taking his relevant example and giving an unrelated rebuttal for the sake of derailing KNC news thread even further.. you know that's just soooooo awesome to do and all.

Amsterdam, March 1637 (Ruyters): The latest Dutch tulip harvest is in, and experts confidently predict another bumper year for tulip growers and tulip investors alike. Billionaire hedge farmer Jon Paulsen is rumoured to have added hyacinths to his multi-strategy offering and has just launched a fund denominated in daffodils. Tulip stocks climbed by a few millimetres, as they are prone to every day if they grow at their normal organic rate; Couleren bulbs rallied another 2 guilders in heavy Antwerp trading; Rosen and Violetten bulbs ended the trading session more or less unchanged, albeit a bit squashed, and at record highs. The market has been further buoyed in recent weeks by a tide of manure issued by the leading tulip advocate Pol Kruygman from his op-ed column in the New Amsterdam Times, ‘Witterings of a Tulip Fanatic’. Kruygman promised to keep the manure coming, whether anybody wanted it or not.

"I am not The Avenger"
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frankenmint
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 September 25, 2013, 10:24:06 PM

are we going through a 2013 tulip bubble?  no.  Are there people out there who still grow tulips for resale....yes!  I was simply taking his relevant example and giving an unrelated rebuttal for the sake of derailing KNC news thread even further.. you know that's just soooooo awesome to do and all.

Amsterdam, March 1637 (Ruyters): The latest Dutch tulip harvest is in, and experts confidently predict another bumper year for tulip growers and tulip investors alike. Billionaire hedge farmer Jon Paulsen is rumoured to have added hyacinths to his multi-strategy offering and has just launched a fund denominated in daffodils. Tulip stocks climbed by a few millimetres, as they are prone to every day if they grow at their normal organic rate; Couleren bulbs rallied another 2 guilders in heavy Antwerp trading; Rosen and Violetten bulbs ended the trading session more or less unchanged, albeit a bit squashed, and at record highs. The market has been further buoyed in recent weeks by a tide of manure issued by the leading tulip advocate Pol Kruygman from his op-ed column in the New Amsterdam Times, ‘Witterings of a Tulip Fanatic’. Kruygman promised to keep the manure coming, whether anybody wanted it or not.

that was just great, you made my day with that one

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Decentralized Digital Billboards

 September 25, 2013, 10:25:07 PM

Yeah, cause there's just so much real world applications for double SHA256, the  possibilities are endless! You might as well go and buy a few tulip buds.

Just like the internet in 1995....you can't see what hasn't been yet created (the amount of available ASICS processing power is very high and could potentially be monetized other than just mining coins)....Plus FWIW there are shitons of people who make a viable living doing stuff that we would scoff at - janitorial businesses, fast food propritors, ditch diggers, and yes, tulip growers.

When I first saw KnC they were saying a couple of things that I got mixed up for a short time, they were talking about a litecoin rig and modular miners...and for a short time I had a picture of a dual miner, one module mining each ..the litecoins paying the power bill while the other mined BTC.

You're right about people finding a way to use all this kit I think, necessity is the mother of invention.

Back in 1995 Internet exploder was by far the top browser, Chrome didn't exist....no-one would have believed what we have now. Maybe well all end up looking back and wishing we'd been mining another currency that follows the same path as BTC has.

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frankenmint
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 September 25, 2013, 10:28:18 PM

Yeah, cause there's just so much real world applications for double SHA256, the  possibilities are endless! You might as well go and buy a few tulip buds.

Just like the internet in 1995....you can't see what hasn't been yet created (the amount of available ASICS processing power is very high and could potentially be monetized other than just mining coins)....Plus FWIW there are shitons of people who make a viable living doing stuff that we would scoff at - janitorial businesses, fast food propritors, ditch diggers, and yes, tulip growers.

When I first saw KnC they were saying a couple of things that I got mixed up for a short time, they were talking about a litecoin rig and modular miners...and for a short time I had a picture of a dual miner, one module mining each ..the litecoins paying the power bill while the other mined BTC.

You're right about people finding a way to use all this kit I think, necessity is the mother of invention.

Back in 1995 Internet exploder was by far the top browser, Chrome didn't exist....no-one would have believed what we have now. Maybe well all end up looking back and wishing we'd been mining another currency that follows the same path as BTC has.

Loieeesssssssss it was netscape navigator - you aged yourself...youngin

xstr8guy
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Glow Stick Dance!

 September 25, 2013, 10:28:45 PM

are we going through a 2013 tulip bubble?  no.  Are there people out there who still grow tulips for resale....yes!  I was simply taking his relevant example and giving an unrelated rebuttal for the sake of derailing KNC news thread even further.. you know that's just soooooo awesome to do and all.

Amsterdam, March 1637 (Ruyters): The latest Dutch tulip harvest is in, and experts confidently predict another bumper year for tulip growers and tulip investors alike. Billionaire hedge farmer Jon Paulsen is rumoured to have added hyacinths to his multi-strategy offering and has just launched a fund denominated in daffodils. Tulip stocks climbed by a few millimetres, as they are prone to every day if they grow at their normal organic rate; Couleren bulbs rallied another 2 guilders in heavy Antwerp trading; Rosen and Violetten bulbs ended the trading session more or less unchanged, albeit a bit squashed, and at record highs. The market has been further buoyed in recent weeks by a tide of manure issued by the leading tulip advocate Pol Kruygman from his op-ed column in the New Amsterdam Times, ‘Witterings of a Tulip Fanatic’. Kruygman promised to keep the manure coming, whether anybody wanted it or not.

Ok, that was clever!  And worth the diversion.
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