So far, only about 3.5 hours of increased volume...
Usually we need to witness a few days or even weeks of increased volume to conclude that there could be some kind of movement underfoot
Is a month good enough for you ?
I cannot really disagree with your overall discussion and the various conclusions that you arrive at from such discussion, yet I am a bit nonplussed when it comes to incorporating Chinese volume in any kind of meaningful volume discussion.
Sure there could be some meaning attributed to Chinese volume, yet we really gotta take chinese volume with a considerable grain of salt.
I appreciate your discussion of various technicals because sometimes the technicals can lend some insight that may not otherwise be recognized - and sure according to OP there is supposed to be some level of evidence bases in our discussion, here - yet I don't really assert to have any significant training or even deep understanding of some of the technicals (maybe I am a bit of a non-believer, or at least a technical skeptic?)
So, yeah, a month of increased volume would be a very good occurrence - yet I am recalling that we did not even achieve such sustained timeline volume increase in the pump from mid-$400s to upper $700s - that pump went up on relatively low volume and even a kind of nonsustained volume.
On the other hand, the volume of the pump from lower $200s to $500 and then the battle that resulted in a kind of $360 to $460 channel, lasted for a bit more than 20 weeks. Recall that we had fairly high level sustained volume for about 20 weeks from late August 2015 to late December 2015.
Sure, history does not exactly repeat itself, but it surely can have a kind of rhyming, and I kind of get the sense that sustainable volume (such as a 20 week period) demonstrates a kind of passion and battle for where the price is going to go, and once we get through such battle, then we arrive at a kind of more stable place for a period of time thereafter (during the subsequent consolidation period).
I think that another one of these battles is likely to come, and I kind of have the sense that we could be soon ready for such another longer sustained battle that includes a more extended period of time of relatively higher volume levels. A month would be a good start, but even shorter periods of relatively higher volume can at least feel good to help to recognize that there is a bit of passion (and potential disagreement) at whatever is the then current price level..
I'm quite bullish (But then I always am. Need to be right at some point).
ditto regarding my own bullish tendency... and my own inclination to believe that there are upwards price pressures that are going to play out in reality, at some point. On the other hand, I remain very trigger shy when it comes to making any kind of short-term prediction - except maybe to assert something like this:
"In the past 12 hours, we have witnessed approximately a 4% upwards price movement, and we have slightly moved outside of our 2 month channel of $550 to $630. Even though we are witnessing relatively low volume that could cause a downwards correction, I have the sense that price pressures remain upwards, and we are a bit more likely to experience an additional 5% upwards rather than a 10% downwards. I place these odds at about 55/45."
Hahahahahaha... you recognize my reserved bullish tepidness?
Poll
