Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[toknormal]

Wow. That was some mega dump.

It all came back out in seconds flat. 8000 BTC = $5.2 Million dump in 1 minute ?

You don't do that to maximise gain. You do it to quench rallies.

[1714611251]

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[1714611251]

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[1714611251]

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[TeeBone]

Stamp bearwhale from last year back ?

[AZwarel]

I think this is appropriate now:

[toknormal]

I think this is appropriate now:

LoL !

[JayJuanGee]

Surely, I cannot disagree with accounting for Chinese exchanges, but if you are considering them as "the leaders" you are likely going to be "off," frequently, but do what you like, and surely people can take your analysis with a grain of salt, if they realize that you are looking at the "lead" matter in that kind of way.

You maybe right, but I've never regarded the US as much more than an idle observer when it comes to bitcoin volume. Technology-wise it's different of course since much, if not most of the developmental work is Western based.

In particular, the entire trading pattern of the last 2.5 years is largely characterised by the two 2013 spikes, one of which ostensibly originated in the Mediteranean Countries (April) and the other in China (December). Even when that bubble burst it co-incided with the Chinese authorities snap-regulating the fiat gateways in that country.

I think the rest of the world just got dragged along for the ride.

I don't really disagree with anything that you say, except for the fact that you seem to be talking too much in absolutes for my thinking - meaning all or nothing, which really can lead to conspiratorial (and simplistic) thinking (not that you are necessarily guilty of such, but there is quite a lot going on, especially in the mainstream press and also coming from a lot of the bitcoin naysayers and the bear trolls).

Bitcoin is a lot more subtle and nuanced than that, and of course there is some truth that there is manipulation and sure there is some truth that there is lead and follow, but price dynamics are also a series of feedback and credibility and questions regarding where something may have started and whether there is enough momentum in that place to really cause meaningful movement, whether we are talking about pumps or dumps or short term, medium term or longer term movements.

Chinese supposed "lead" is not happening in a vaccum.... Do you recall silk road arrests in about August/September 2013?  Do you recall fed hearings that kind of ended up in pro-bitcoin outcomes in November 2013?  Do you recall some admissions from Chinese insiders that a lot of the chinese volume was fake?  Do you recognize that there is a large amount of world wide development in BTC related industries that is generally causing increased adoption and BTC trading going on all over the world (even reflected in local bitcoin activities and even reflected in blockchain.info wallets and various blockchain adoption statistics)? 

Part of my point is that there is a lot going on in bitcoin besides how many supposed millions of coins that the Chinese are supposedly trading on their various fake and/or fee free bot-dominated exchanges that supposedly and frequently take up more than supposedly 80% of the world-wide trade volume and bitcoin activities. 

I am not suggesting to completely discount the chinese BTC related activities or even to give the chinese activities less than 50% weight (I really don't know exactly how much weight to give anything because how much weight to give is going to vary from person to person, and how much weight to give is even going to vary within myself from time 1 to time 2 to time 3).  I am just suggesting that any BTC price analysis and/or attempts at prediction should go much beyond becoming too much focused on the chinese exchange activities or attempting to measure the direction of the BTC wind by the tea leaves of chinese BTC exchanges.

[toknormal]

I am just suggesting that any BTC price analysis and/or attempts at prediction should go much beyond becoming too much focused on the chinese exchange activities or attempting to measure the direction of the BTC wind by the tea leaves of chinese BTC exchanges.

Indeed.

It's just that if you DO happen to be watching charts instead of studying fundamentals and reading the news, it's quite easy to see where the action is and where it isn't since they're all lined up there in front of you with no more than a button click between them  

you seem to be talking too much in absolutes...which really can lead to conspiratorial (and simplistic) thinking

Hey, this is bitcointalk. Didn't you know that "conspiratorial and simplistic thinking" were de-rigueur ? 

[Fakhoury]

Wow. That was some mega dump.

It all came back out in seconds flat. 8000 BTC = $5.2 Million dump in 1 minute ?

You don't do that to maximise gain. You do it to quench rallies.

Or to continue "hoarding" or I'm mistaken ?

What is the sole purpose then ? Punishing the bulls ?

Kindly tell me your very short term outlook, Toknormal as I was extremely happy with the breakout.

[toknormal]

Kindly tell me your very short term outlook, Toknormal as I was extremely happy with the breakout.

I had a theory about those dumps a while back. I referred to them as the "borgan quench" 

Just an idle fantasy about armies of fed officials or PBOC staffers equipped with huge reserves of BTC who's sole purpose was to quench the market and blunt bullish sentiment at strategic moments in order to engender a chronic feeling of hopelessness in genuine traders.

The market seems to be digging itself out of the hole now though.

[ImI]

You don't do that to maximise gain. You do it to quench rallies.

agree. someone is desperate to push the price down. guess shorters on huobi/okcoin.

[Fakhoury]

The market seems to be digging itself out of the hole now though.

Could you kindly elaborate more ?

And tell me your outlook please for the coming weekend, is really the rally QUENCHED or there is still a chance ?

Edit : Is the rally continuing ?

[JayJuanGee]

I am just suggesting that any BTC price analysis and/or attempts at prediction should go much beyond becoming too much focused on the chinese exchange activities or attempting to measure the direction of the BTC wind by the tea leaves of chinese BTC exchanges.

Indeed.

It's just that if you DO happen to be watching charts instead of studying fundamentals and reading the news, it's quite easy to see where the action is and where it isn't since they're all lined up there in front of you with no more than a button click between them  

If you are attempting to suggest that you personally are watching the multiple exchange charts more than some other people (whether it is me or someone else) and coming to more "accurate" conclusion(s) based on such watchings, then I think that you are being a bit selective with what evidence you believe is actually supporting your supposedly more informed conclusions.

I agree with you that sometimes an activity may start in the chinese exchange and western exchanges may follow, but that does not mean that the chinese are "leading."  We need better evidence than that, no?

I think that coming to fair analysis and conclusions is a combination of watching the order of where stuff happens first and also considering a variety of other factors and price influencing dynamics.  I am not saying that I know what all of those factors are, but certainly, it is not merely identifying that some manipulators happened to begin their pump or dump on some high fake volume, no fee chinese exchange.  There's more to price prediction and causation/correlation analysis than that, no?  or are you asserting that  we just need to look at which exchange(s) begin the pump/dump and then conclude that they are the leaders?  Maybe I would laugh if I wasn't so shocked...     hahahahahaha   

[JayJuanGee]

Kindly tell me your very short term outlook, Toknormal as I was extremely happy with the breakout.

I had a theory about those dumps a while back. I referred to them as the "borgan quench" 

Just an idle fantasy about armies of fed officials or PBOC staffers equipped with huge reserves of BTC who's sole purpose was to quench the market and blunt bullish sentiment at strategic moments in order to engender a chronic feeling of hopelessness in genuine traders.

The market seems to be digging itself out of the hole now though.

Actually, whether you call it a "borgan quench" or whatever, there is a certain amount of truth that bear whales want to strategically dump in order to attempt to keep down rallys, and these may not even be short-term profitable dumps.

Who knows about whether we really need to get at explanations of the reasons for such dumps and/or price suppression attempts - unless they are engaging in fractional reserves with bitcoins... I think so long as they are officially using bitcoins, then sooner or later they run out of bitcoins to dump no?  and people keep buying and the dumps are not effective, right?  We all know that there are some exchange tools that are in effect that actually allow for trading of coins that you do not have, but it still seems as if even that kind of practice becomes kind of expensive after a while and no longer effective, or no?

[toknormal]

Who knows about whether we really need to get at explanations of the reasons for such dumps

Just for clarifiaction, it was a joke 

[Wolf Rainer]

I think we will test 700 next month.

[TeeBone]

I think we will test 700 next month this week.

[toknormal]

Buoyancy is recovering. Already back at 4540. (Quoting the more authoritative exchanges  )

[JayJuanGee]

you seem to be talking too much in absolutes...which really can lead to conspiratorial (and simplistic) thinking

Hey, this is bitcointalk. Didn't you know that "conspiratorial and simplistic thinking" were de-rigueur ? 

Looks like you added this response after I had already begun to type my response to the other part of your response.

O.k.  that is a fair enough criticism of my sometimes (maybe even frequently) arguably dogmatic expectations.

We used to have a lot of folks engaging in numerology and all kinds of nonsense, and surely some of that can be colorful and even realistic of how people view how or whether they are going to invest, including throwing in a bit of astrology.   

[JayJuanGee]

The market seems to be digging itself out of the hole now though.

Could you kindly elaborate more ?

And tell me your outlook please for the coming weekend, is really the rally QUENCHED or there is still a chance ?

Edit : Is the rally continuing ?

I understand, Fakhoury, that you are  not asking me, but I CANT RESIST....

You know, having a purpose such as one to "quench rallies" and actually achieving such purpose, can be two separate things. 

And, surely the evidence of decent upwards price pressures is continuing to show its cute lillie noggen...

In other words, we seems to have gots ourselves decent upwards price momentum that is not going to easily by quenched...

Surely, we are still operating on very low trade volume (and who gives a shit what you see in china and some of those other fake, no fee, bot exchanges), the fact of the matter is that BTC trade volume seems to be continuing as relatively low.... and so, when we have low trade volume, we can have a reversal of the direction at any time, even though it is kind of appearing that bears are losing a bit of control over the continuing and ongoing upward trend... .. they may have to wait until into the $700s or so before they are able to adequately and sufficiently reverse the current momentum and the upward price pressures that seems to be under this thing.. and also it is possible that they are not going to be able to do it, even into the $800s, crossing my fingers.. and if we get into the $800s quickly, then surely they are going to have some loss of control issues.

[Fakhoury]

The market seems to be digging itself out of the hole now though.

Could you kindly elaborate more ?

And tell me your outlook please for the coming weekend, is really the rally QUENCHED or there is still a chance ?

Edit : Is the rally continuing ?

I understand, Fakhoury, that you are  not asking me, but I CANT RESIST....

You know, having a purpose such as one to "quench rallies" and actually achieving such purpose, can be two separate things. 

And, surely the evidence of decent upwards price pressures is continuing to show its cute lillie noggen...

In other words, we seems to have gots ourselves decent upwards price momentum that is not going to easily by quenched...

Surely, we are still operating on very low trade volume (and who gives a shit what you see in china and some of those other fake, no fee, bot exchanges), the fact of the matter is that BTC trade volume seems to be continuing as relatively low.... and so, when we have low trade volume, we can have a reversal of the direction at any time, even though it is kind of appearing that bears are losing a bit of control over the continuing and ongoing upward trend... .. they may have to wait until into the $700s or so before they are able to adequately and sufficiently reverse the current momentum and the upward price pressures that seems to be under this thing.. and also it is possible that they are not going to be able to do it, even into the $800s, crossing my fingers.. and if we get into the $800s quickly, then surely they are going to have some loss of control issues.

Take easy JJG, we are brothers man

The thing is I want to break $1K+ this year, I'm fedup man lol

And it seems Toknormal is ignoring me

[JayJuanGee]

Buoyancy is recovering. Already back at 4540. (Quoting the more authoritative exchanges  )

I am really looking forward to 4540, too (to be reached and quoted on the more "make maerica grate gain places")