Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[yefi]

Today an order to sell the bunch of Stellars that I got for free as a bitcoinaire got executed at the absolute top, so I recovered almost a 3% of the total value of my btc. Against negativity try to cash in some shitfork dividends.

Congrats. Talking of which, the deadline for Polo to claim Stellar is tomorrow. Guess that's my free coins down the drain then...

[JayJuanGee]

Interesting that the majority feels price will be at 20-22k by the 31st....

You can only vote once. I'm sure the sentiment has been revised in the meantime.
Myself, I would have voted 22-24 if that option hadn't been left out.
Short term timing is tricky. If we were right about that all the time, we would already be all millionaires. Which only 10-20% of us are, instead  

That brings up a decent point, eddie.  Even though a vast majority of us were predicting a kind of $20k to $24k range - which was at least 10% more than the then price, that does NOT mean that we changed our buy/sell (hodl) strategy in any kind of meaningful way.  So in some sense many of us might make a prediction or have a hunch, but we may only play that hunch on the margins, and even in the short term it may seem that we did not make as much money, our overall strategy is not dependent on the success of short term price anticipations.

Accordingly, if anyone with a decent (or maybe conservatively profitable is another way of saying it) BTC strategy is looking at probable outcomes, such as those in the poll, he is going to see that all of the poll options are possible.  Hodling and accumulating of BTC is likely to be the most profitable in the long run, even though if you look at the matter in a short-sighted way (and you seen a 43%-ish drop from $19,666 to $11,060 - and also you see that peeps had predicted the wrong direction), then you might conclude that you should have sold more BTC, which would likely lead you into a kind of a gambling mentality (and even into behavior that is the opposite of what you should be doing) that is less likely to cause richie, in the long term.... causing you to sell to much at the bottom and at the wrong times.

[d_eddie]

Bitstamps pumped back up to $13000!

Maybe I missed my chance to panic sell at the bottom.

Is it time to ask who sold at the bottom yet?

Tsk tsk. Don't mess with the officials! It's not upon you - or me - to ask such questions.
Tsk tsk, the disrespect!  

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

For any bag-HODLers who bought at the ATH, don't despair. You're not a true HODLer until you've been branded by the valley of -50% returns at least once. 

I resemble that statement.   

[FractalUniverse]

Bitcoin is going to retest december low, because for the first time I voted other than lowest choice in thread poll. (20,000-$22,000) when i voted for the lowest variant, it always made new ATH

Im sorry

You caused this?

You fucker!!!!   

I promise I'll vote lowest option in the next poll again. just in case

But at least i got a chance to buy small amount of BTC after long time of waiting. bit by bit, hopefully i can get back to whole bitcoins some day.
my first goal is 1BTC and the next stop 2.1.

[criptix]

THAT ESCALATED QUICKLY LOL

[RoomBot]

Bitstamps pumped back up to $13000!

Maybe I missed my chance to panic sell at the bottom.

Is it time to ask who sold at the bottom yet?

I panic sold a little bit on Gdax 6 hours ago near the bottom. So naturally we are going to moon now.

I was hoping to panic sell below $10000. Unfortunately it seems like I missed my only chance just before Christmas.

Well I bought near the Tippy Top, if that makes anyone feel better.  

If so, you're sick.  Get help.

I sold a chunk at $19K  

Then dumped all my free BCASH to buy MOAR BTC at $18,000.

No regrets.

[criptix]

Bitcoin is going to retest december low, because for the first time I voted other than lowest choice in thread poll. (20,000-$22,000) when i voted for the lowest variant, it always made new ATH

Im sorry

You caused this?

You fucker!!!!   

I promise I'll vote lowest option in the next poll again. just in case

But at least i got a chance to buy small amount of BTC after long time of waiting. bit by bit, hopefully i can get back to whole bitcoins some day.
my first goal is 1BTC and the next stop 2.1.

When the new poll came out:

[d_eddie]

Even though a vast majority of us were predicting a kind of $20k to $24k range - which was at least 10% more than the then price, that does NOT mean that we changed our buy/sell (hodl) strategy in any kind of meaningful way.  So in some sense many of us might make a prediction or have a hunch, but we may only play that hunch on the margins,

(snip)

Hodling and accumulating of BTC is likely to be the most profitable in the long run

The alternatives are either tricky/risky (timing the market with any reliability) or a bit more involved (laddered sell/buy on up/down ramps, à la JayJuanGee or jbreher).

Of course, it is possible to have some small fraction of "play money" traded on margin just to see how it works out. It usually doesn't work out right, but it depends on more than one factor.

[RoomBot]

I was hoping to panic sell below $10000. Unfortunately it seems like I missed my only chance just before Christmas.

Why not set up a private panic sell for $1000 to someone on here? They might take some persuading but I think someone will relent.

Not as drama queeny as doing it on an exchange but you can name your low price.

How can I be sure it won't go lower after doing my OTC OCD panic sell?

Should I panic sell at one dollar a bitcoin to be certain of selling at the bottom?

Yes and I'll buy.

oh, and FTFY.  

[d_eddie]

Of course, it is possible to have some small fraction of "play money" traded on margin

Speaking of which, today Bitmex awarded BTC to their customers based on a margin snapshot taken on August 1st at the time of the BCH fork. The ratio is 0.1707 BTC for each BTC (BCH) of margin held at that time.

Over 17% return on play money. That's not shabby at all, is it?

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin is going to retest december low, because for the first time I voted other than lowest choice in thread poll. (20,000-$22,000) when i voted for the lowest variant, it always made new ATH

Im sorry

You caused this?

You fucker!!!!   

I promise I'll vote lowest option in the next poll again. just in case

But at least i got a chance to buy small amount of BTC after long time of waiting. bit by bit, hopefully i can get back to whole bitcoins some day.
my first goal is 1BTC and the next stop 2.1.

Well, I am glad that it worked out for you.

As far as BTC accumulation, sure it is good to have goals in terms of the quantity of bitcoins that you would like to achieve, and I also create goals for myself regarding the quantity of bitcoins that I would like to retain.

So I use an Excel spreadsheet that has several tabs and ways to project my cash flow and also projecting my continued placing of fiat into my BTC funds with any extra cashflow that I am able to achieve and also projecting ballpark estimates for the quantity of bitcoins sold as the price is anticipated to go up and as the price reaches certain higher price points. 

Of course, I have projections that go in both price directions, but in the past two years, the up direction seems to have been the most relevant and the most frequently being revised based on what has happened in the BTC market, including a much above expectations 78x BTC price increase from $250 to $19,666.

So with the passage of time, I can see that whatever the fuck that I am doing in my selling on the way up and buying on the way down is causing BTC accumulation and retention of more and more bitcoins at certain projected price points that have ended up materializing, too in a much quicker than anticipated way. 

In other words, the way that I set up my strategy has caused the need for higher and higher BTC prices to bring my quantity of BTC below certain pre-decided quantities that I consider to be important retention levels. 

None of these projections is really set in stone, but the projections do still serve as a means to monitor whether whatever I am doing is causing tangible positive results in the accumulation and retention arenas.

[OWZ1337]

Bitstamps pumped back up to $13000!

Maybe I missed my chance to panic sell at the bottom.

Is it time to ask who sold at the bottom yet?

I panic sold a little bit on Gdax 6 hours ago near the bottom. So naturally we are going to moon now.

ripple and stellar leading the way? lol you know crypto is doomed when two shits that are not even coins are dominating the market :\ go crawl in a hole\\\

[Deeyoh]

Cripple train is derailing.  So fascinating... Really fun to watch though.  Looking for the big pump from the rats leaving the burning ship.

[gentlemand]

https://github.com/bitcoin-dot-org/bitcoin.org/pull/2010

Interesting natter here re changing Bitcoin's billing on bitcoin.org in light of the fee situation.

[DashS]

Will go down till mid January, after that it will go up... My 2 cents.

[OWZ1337]

THAT ESCALATED QUICKLY LOL

FUCK YOU RIPPLE BANKERS SCAM !!! ===>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDBSs70CxOM

[lightfoot]

So people are just whacking off and pumping/dumping things at random, aren't they?

[JayJuanGee]

Even though a vast majority of us were predicting a kind of $20k to $24k range - which was at least 10% more than the then price, that does NOT mean that we changed our buy/sell (hodl) strategy in any kind of meaningful way.  So in some sense many of us might make a prediction or have a hunch, but we may only play that hunch on the margins,

(snip)

Hodling and accumulating of BTC is likely to be the most profitable in the long run

The alternatives are either tricky/risky (timing the market with any reliability) or a bit more involved (laddered sell/buy on up/down ramps, à la JayJuanGee or jbreher).

Of course, it is possible to have some small fraction of "play money" traded on margin just to see how it works out. It usually doesn't work out right, but it depends on more than one factor.

I personally think that my system is close to fool proof - and serves as a kind of downward insurance more than a means to accumulate BTC (even though it seems like it has ended up doing both for me).  

Anyhow, I do understand the mindset that the sell on the way up and buy on the way down system does not really work in the real world.

In the real world, I try to explain to several real world peeps, and peeps tend to have a kind of common emotional (I am smarter) problem of constantly attempting to play with too much of their stash and risking too much and tweaking in the wrong way to gamble too much because they are trying to get rich quick and time the price movements of the market rather than setting up their buy / sell order system in a more emotionally neutral way.

So, maybe in the end, you are correct because real world peeps have a kind of inability to remove their emotion and they do not want to set up their orders like as if they were a robot?  So maybe in the end, I try to act as if I am a human, but I got some kind of robot in me?  Perhaps?  Hey, hey hey,... I am just kidding, I am not robot.  I have had several experiences over the years where I made mistakes and I tried to tweak my system here or there to time the market.   But I learned from those experiences and just stopped engaging in that behavior - except very minimally, and sometimes, even if you make some "human" mistakes, you can also step back and make up for some of those mistakes too, by changing some of the orders around (quantity and/or spacing).. and frequently let the market come to you, rather than trying to force matters.

[TERA2]

Could play out something like this