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Question: Highest price we'll see in 2022:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25524836 times)
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BTCMILLIONAIRE
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February 12, 2018, 04:16:34 PM

AI = Artificial Intelligence. Means it is fake intelligence.

Means, the real intelligence can still out smart it. Thus humans will control machines for a long time. Up until they are self-replicating, self-repairing, self-sustaining, and self-aware.
We already have rudimentary self-replicating algorithms. They're also self-repairing/amending, which is why algorithmic trading with Machine Learning works so well compared to traditional and commercially available trading bots. Considering that these algorithms automatically adjust as new data rolls in, you could already say that they are self-aware (of their relevant metrics) as well. The reasons why these algorithms aren't shitting on human intelligence is mostly due to a lack of sufficiently intertwined networks, but we're slowly getting there.
As far as "outsmarting" these algorithms is concerned. That's only partially true. We can screw with AI algorithms by analyzing precisely how they assimilate data (which doesn't work with all algorithms because it's sometimes impossible to tell what is going on and they're pretty much a blackbox). But they are usually significantly better than humans by a large margin at solving specific tasks. As mentioned earlier, the only reason they aren't capable of solving general tasks is because they're currently specialized algorithms for specific tasks. Once we can efficiently connect many such specialized "modules" together, humans will seem like complete retards compared to AI. Which raises the questions of whether or not we want to merge or inevitably have AI as our near-literal God.


AI = Artificial Intelligence. Means it is fake intelligence.

Means, the real intelligence can still out smart it. Thus humans will *continue to* control machines for a long time. Up until they are self-replicating, self-repairing, self-sustaining, and self-aware.

FTFY.

Machine do what they are asked to do.
Some machine learning algorithms (such as artificial neural networks) are based of the biomimetism principle, but the result is not even close to the reality.
Biomimetism implies two things :
-Our comprehension of the living is still very limited. Hence, genetic algorithm, artificial neural network, etc... are by essence incomplete. You can see this that way : an artificial neural network is 10% (or 20%, it is very subjective here) nature inspired, and 80% pure engineering.
-Even with a full comprehension of nature processes, the algorithms outcoming of our attempt to mimic them wouldn't copy 100% of the reality, cause you know, organic cells (or organic processes in general) > transistors. Maybe this will change with major disruption in technology, for example a fully functionnal quantic computer.

For now, biomimetism only gives us some general paradigm that emerged naturally. And it works because Nature is just damn well made. But as long as we don't understand the truly meaning and processes of a thought, we'll never have a sentient machine. Scifi stories where some creator kinda randomly create true (artificial) intelligence is pure fantasy.
I would argue the contrary in continuation of my above ramblings. We don't need to mimic the human brain perfectly. Humans simply don't compare to specific task algorithms. All it takes to trump us is connecting modules together whilst allowing for the creation of new ones by the algorithm itself. And as I've mentioned, the first algorithms to create code already exist. So either of higher computational power or more efficient algorithms should be enough and reality both of these will get satisfied over time.

We didn't copy birds or fishes either to fly in the skies or swim through the oceans either, and we're significantly better at both of these tasks. There is no compelling reason to create a carbon copy of the human brain for this specific purpose.
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February 12, 2018, 04:22:03 PM

Yeah yeah. I get you.

There are running bots. They are good at running. Like that cheeta bot.
There are aim bots. They can aim. See stuff.
So there's robocop right there, but how does it know good from evil, right from wrong. It's going to make a mistake.

There are game bots. They play chess. They play go. That's all they know to play. So give them a break if they beat humans in a game. That's the only thing they can do anyway. They still had a hard time until recently and required massive computation and storage.

There are self driving cars. We will see how they improve. I still like to drive my own, for now.

There are sex bots. They have "family" mode too. So they try to talk to your friends and guests like normal. They try. They're still better at their first function.

There are trading bots. They buy low and sell high. The whole day. Keep the spreads small, and it will be profit. Still doesn't beat a half decent hedge fund manager, you know, the real ones that make good decisions. (And yes, humans make bad decisions too.)

Now, that's real. But nothing beats a group of humans, creating a coin from scratch, and singing it to the high heavens raking in billions of dollars and disappearing in a puff of smoke when they get a cease and desist letter. However, we call those guys scammers.
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February 12, 2018, 04:34:26 PM

Yeah yeah. I get you.

There are running bots. They are good at running. Like that cheeta bot.
There are aim bots. They can aim. See stuff.
So there's robocop right there, but how does it know good from evil, right from wrong. It's going to make a mistake.

There are game bots. They play chess. They play go. That's all they know to play. So give them a break if they beat humans in a game. That's the only thing they can do anyway. They still had a hard time until recently and required massive computation and storage.

There are self driving cars. We will see how they improve. I still like to drive my own, for now.

There are sex bots. They have "family" mode too. So they try to talk to your friends and guests like normal. They try. They're still better at their first function.

There are trading bots. They buy low and sell high. The whole day. Keep the spreads small, and it will be profit. Still doesn't beat a half decent hedge fund manager, you know, the real ones that make good decisions. (And yes, humans make bad decisions too.)

Now, that's real. But nothing beats a group of humans, creating a coin from scratch, and singing it to the high heavens raking in billions of dollars and disappearing in a puff of smoke when they get a cease and desist letter. However, we call those guys scammers.

Although I’m certain these AI devs could design a clown bot named Carlos
who dances like a moron across the stage yelling
BEEEECONEEEEECT!!!!
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February 12, 2018, 04:39:26 PM

Yeah yeah. I get you.

There are running bots. They are good at running. Like that cheeta bot.
There are aim bots. They can aim. See stuff.
So there's robocop right there, but how does it know good from evil, right from wrong. It's going to make a mistake.
How do humans know right from wrong? Good from evil? Humans make mistakes all the time, and they make more of them than an AI will for a very simple reason. An AI can be trained on countless of human generations worth of data within a few hours to a few months before ever being put to use. A single human however, can't just go and live through all of human history before setting foot into the real world.

There are self driving cars. We will see how they improve. I still like to drive my own, for now.
I feel like whoever opens up a few car parks/racing tracks just before self-driving cards tip over human driven cars will make a fortune.

There are trading bots. They buy low and sell high. The whole day. Keep the spreads small, and it will be profit. Still doesn't beat a half decent hedge fund manager, you know, the real ones that make good decisions. (And yes, humans make bad decisions too.)
Most hedge funds get floored by the average equity market growth rates. And those that are the most competitive are highly data driven and rely on machine learning. The amount of data that goes into the trading decisions by a decent bot is something that no human could ever dream of processing himself. Especially not in realtime. If ML isn't the norm in hedge funds yet, it's only because of a lack of ML talent due to the relatively young age of the industry and not because humans can outperform the best algorithms.


Now, that's real. But nothing beats a group of humans, creating a coin from scratch, and singing it to the high heavens raking in billions of dollars and disappearing in a puff of smoke when they get a cease and desist letter. However, we call those guys scammers.
I'm actually surprised that this keeps working. Beeeeeeeeeeeconneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeect was the most obvious scam that I've ever seen in my life. And people still ended up complaining about getting burnt. Unbelievable.
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February 12, 2018, 04:52:23 PM

oh god guys

I just woke up from this dream where coinbase had surprise listed some shitcoin I had never heard of from like 200 down the list.

so relieved right now
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February 12, 2018, 05:03:25 PM

Yeah yeah. I get you.

There are running bots. They are good at running. Like that cheeta bot.
There are aim bots. They can aim. See stuff.
So there's robocop right there, but how does it know good from evil, right from wrong. It's going to make a mistake.

....


As the very first purpose of this is going to be "move randomly and kill everything that moves", it doesn't really matter to distinguish good from evil.

remark : antipersonnel mines do the same job for cheaper.
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February 12, 2018, 05:13:49 PM

200    Nuls Nuls    $57,330,531    $2.43    $4,872,420    23,564,882 NULS *    1.07%    sparkline

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The new Bitcoin has been found this is awesome it was seen in a dream.
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February 12, 2018, 05:16:06 PM

So, initial impressions of Lightning after a few days of puttering around, and throwing 0.3 some-odd BTC at funding channels.

"Ain't nobody gonna get rich running a node"

Was mentioning to my partner this morning, "I'm not sure this project is worth it"

The tech is kinda neato, tho, I guess.

I think I'm technically losing BTC right now fucking around with Lightning.

Anyway, off to see what the herd is up to.

Fuck this cold. Shit startin' to irritate me, yo. Ain't built for this weather.

Can't believe I'm two weeks away from submitting my resignation.

Thanks for the follow up on your experience as a LN node.

I've got a few questions...

When you say it is not worth it, I think you mean that you don't see it is something that it is going to have an interesting ROI for you as an intermediary node... but you mean now, medium term or also in the future?

How is that you are technically losing BTC rigt now? Have you experienced some direct loss of BTC? (something which has been well advised by developers at current stage though).

I would be glad if by summer this year there is some real life usage of LN. For that we would need at least a very few early adopters retailers, exchanges, atm networks even if a very small minority. Not sure if I am being too optimistic with that target. What's you opinion about it?

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February 12, 2018, 05:17:01 PM
Last edit: February 12, 2018, 05:39:19 PM by Nosk

We don't need to mimic the human brain perfectly. Humans simply don't compare to specific task algorithms. [...] There is no compelling reason to create a carbon copy of the human brain for this specific purpose
Never argued the opposite. As I said, the current state of the art in machine learning doesn't do it and works fine (for a certain number of use cases).


Quote
All it takes to trump us is connecting modules together whilst allowing for the creation of new ones by the algorithm itself. And as I've mentioned, the first algorithms to create code already exist. So either of higher computational power or more efficient algorithms should be enough and reality both of these will get satisfied over time.

I'm not really aware of the literature about generated code but I highly doubt that algorithm created code is THE key to sentient machines.

Quote
We didn't copy birds or fishes either to fly in the skies or swim through the oceans either

No we didn't, but we just did like nature did for birds and fishes. Test, fail and try again.

Quote
and we're significantly better at both of these tasks.

Hell no we are not. It is like saying that machine are better at nailing stuff because they can nail much bigger stuff or much smaller stuff. Or better at math because they can do incredibly fast calculation. Yet, no machine ever won a nobel prize. As I said, living things are infinitely better, much more efficient, etc... (organic) machines than the one we can create.
Computer science coupled to engineering make marvelous things to help human, but they are still tools and will remain tools until a looooong time.

Quote
algorithmic trading with Machine Learning works so well compared to traditional and commercially available trading bots

I'd love to see that. (No seriously, I'd really love to see that. Time series analysis are part of my studies. Plus, I'm quite bad at trading)
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February 12, 2018, 05:25:36 PM

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

27/12/2017 bikerleszno Sad
29/12/2018 cAPSLOCK  Sad
30/12/2017 digithusiast Sad
31/12/2017 Raja_MBZ Sad
01/01/2018 elg Sad
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17/01/2018 bitcoinvest Sad
18/01/2018 last of the v8s Sad
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22/01/2018 RealMachasm Sad
23/01/2018 willope Sad
24/01/2018 kartala Sad
25/01/2018 orpington Sad
26/01/2018 rolling Sad
27/01/2018 LFC_bitcoin Sad
28/01/2018 jojo69 Sad
29/01/2018 CristiTCM Sad
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31/01/2018 realsteelboy Sad
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07/02/2018 vapourminer Sad
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09/02/2018 siera Sad
10/02/2018 AlcoHoDL Sad
11/02/2018 Dunkelheit667 Sad
12/02/2018 yonton Sad
13/02/2018 Wekkel
14/02/2018 Thekool1s
15/02/2018 starmman
16/02/2018 Globb0
17/02/2018 leveldkrypto
18/02/2018 olesh
19/02/2018 BitCoinBurger
20/02/2018 Paashaas
21/02/2018 flynn
22/02/2018 icygreen
23/02/2018 erisdiscordia
24/02/2018 phil_s
25/02/2018 sirazimuth
26/02/2018 Arriemoller
27/02/2018 yonton
28/02/2018 Muttley
01/03/2018 bones261
02/03/2018 heater
03/03/2018 soullyG
04/03/2018 InvoKing
05/03/2018 Notme
06/03/2018 sa_94
07/03/2018 NUFCrichard
08/03/2018 Imbatman
09/03/2018 Roombot
10/03/2018 STT
11/03/2018 badream
13/03/2018 erre
14/03/2018 julian071
15/03/2018 podyx
17/03/2018 fragout
18/03/2018 fabiorem
21/03/2018 dakustaking76
23/03/2018 nikauforest
31/03/2018 vroom
01/04/2018 somac.
02/04/2018 kurious
04/04/2018 fluidjax
05/04/2018 bitcoinbunny
08/04/2018 tyler1890
10/04/2018 ludwigvon
11/04/2018 hairymaclairy
16/04/2018 practicaldreamer
18/04/2018 free-bit.co.in
27/04/2018 drbrockoin
01/05/2018 sprinkles
02/06/2018 oblox
07/07/2018 IntroVert
03/08/2018 toxic2040
28/08/2018 bitserve
15/10/2018 Yefi
05/11/2018 mikenz
31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK !!!

Where is this week bringing us ...?, Lets all hodl bitcoin and be ready for a bright future ....
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February 12, 2018, 05:28:30 PM

oh god guys

I just woke up from this dream where coinbase had surprise listed some shitcoin I had never heard of from like 200 down the list.

so relieved right now

LOL... a lot of people (including me) are getting similar dreams these days... Bitcoin is sometimes $100,000 in my dream and sometimes $100... But then, right after waking up, when I open Delta/Blockfolio, the situation is like this:

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February 12, 2018, 05:33:06 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

oh god guys

I just woke up from this dream where coinbase had surprise listed some shitcoin I had never heard of from like 200 down the list.

so relieved right now

LOL... a lot of people (including me) are getting similar dreams these days... Bitcoin is sometimes $100,000 in my dream and sometimes $100... But then, right after waking up, when I open Delta/Blockfolio, the situation is like this:

[img]http://image.boomsbeat.com/data/images/full/174963/mr-bean-the-exam-jpg.jpg[/img
really .. I look at the 1 year chart an have to pinch myself to make sure it's not a dream
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February 12, 2018, 05:34:58 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Bouncing along sideways I see.... currently $8720USD/$11000CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

The buying opportunity continues but these 4-digit prices won't last forever.

I'll need to buy about $15kCAD in late March. I hope I don't have to spend a whole bitcoin to do it.

Gawd, I hate spending Bitcoin. Coins are for holding, not spending.
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February 12, 2018, 05:36:47 PM

When you say it is not worth it, I think you mean that you don't see it is something that it is going to have an interesting ROI for you as an intermediary node... but you mean now, medium term or also in the future?

There seems to be a cost to open a channel, and it appears that it's not worth it, just opening channels willy-nilly right now.

eg: I'll fund a channel with 1,000,000 SAT.

When the channel closes, for whatever reason, listfunds reveals I have a balance of 999,085 on my end.

Opening/closing a channel is done by a bitcoin transaction on bitcoin network. Haven't you heard of bitcoin tx fees?
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February 12, 2018, 05:42:40 PM
Merited by Karartma1 (1)

Bitfury:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/bitcoin-chip-battle-brewing-behind-hut-8-s-canadian-listing
A new stock listing in Canada will soon give investors their first chance to buy into the booming market for computer chips driving most of the world’s bitcoin mining farms.
 ... Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu didn’t respond to requests seeking comment.
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February 12, 2018, 05:52:23 PM

Opening/closing a channel is done by a bitcoin transaction on bitcoin network. Haven't you heard of bitcoin tx fees?

Yes yes, I know... which is why I'm admitting my initial experiments with going hog-wild funding channels, willy-nilly, was an ill-conceived idea.

Going to need to re-think the game-theory of this.

Isn't there a way to share the fees for using your intermediary node as it is suppossed to be, or do you mean your own channels you open for yourselve?

I wouln't be surprised if the "cost sharing" algorithm isn't implemented yet, but I assumed it was.
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February 12, 2018, 06:02:17 PM

I guess nobody cares about this: http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/11/investing/lagarde-bitcoin-regulation/index.html

Wow was 8000 the new bottom retest?

Where’s Smokey the Bear?

Maybe that IMF statement was too pathetic sounding?
Why would anybody give a rat's ass about regulation when decentralized exchanges are on the horizon? For the very first time in history regulators won't be able to dictate their rule upon citizens.

Yea that sounds very interesting i’ll have to read about what that means... how they work etc.
It means that they can't be taken down, because just like Bitcoin they would be a distributed peer to peer platform. The details are more complex, with atomic swaps and whatnot, but basically you'd be trading with people directly via smart contracts, which would actually be safer than traditional exchanges as well due to the abolishment of counterparty risk (as long as there's no Parity style fuck ups).

I looked into it a bit and it looks awesome. But I’m still not sure how you get fiat in and out of the exchange if it’s decentralized. Sure u can do p2p fiat transactions like on localbitcoin but beyond that I don’t see how u could cash out so easily unless u find one person who wants all your coin ur selling. 
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February 12, 2018, 06:06:35 PM

Bitfury:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/bitcoin-chip-battle-brewing-behind-hut-8-s-canadian-listing
A new stock listing in Canada will soon give investors their first chance to buy into the booming market for computer chips driving most of the world’s bitcoin mining farms.
 ... Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu didn’t respond to requests seeking comment.


That sound like very good news but... I have never really understood what Bitfury really does.... Everyone and their mother have a Bitmain miner, but... anyone does have a Bitfury miner? What are the specs?
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February 12, 2018, 06:21:33 PM

Bitfury:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-12/bitcoin-chip-battle-brewing-behind-hut-8-s-canadian-listing
A new stock listing in Canada will soon give investors their first chance to buy into the booming market for computer chips driving most of the world’s bitcoin mining farms.
 ... Bitmain co-founder Jihan Wu didn’t respond to requests seeking comment.


That sound like very good news but... I have never really understood what Bitfury really does.... Everyone and their mother have a Bitmain miner, but... anyone does have a Bitfury miner? What are the specs?

No for a long time now they've only sold to corporates, or rather in bulk. By the container load. Sometimes their other projects are a bit mysterious - maybe it's comms problems - like they made the cops some chain analysis stuff.
edit: looking around, there were a few smaller projects using their chips recently, but basically they haven't dealt with little sods like us for a while now. v. sensible
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February 12, 2018, 06:22:47 PM
Merited by Wekkel (1)

Trying to clarify this prediction more (which, until now, was accurate) :

Here, some graph to support my earlier post (sorry I'll talk in €).

So this is how uncertain we are (and yup, that's some sort of symetry we have here since the bullrun).
My prediction is, if we break the 7k€ resistance, we will go pretty much straight to the next ~9k€ resistance zone, maybe in the top of it, or maybe break it and go beyond.
We may stay in this resistance for some time.
If we bounce, from the 7k€ resistance, we may go back go 5k€ and bounce again (unlikely, given the volume we had sub 5k€).

Here you go



The price didn't bounced off the 7k€ resistance.
I took the period of high volume, determined the min and max moving average of the price, and it highlights some resistance we can find.
Taking that into account, it makes me more bullish for what will come next.
(following chart is still in €)

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