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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
Yes - 20 (69%)
No, it's coming later this year - 7 (24.1%)
No, it's coming next year or after - 2 (6.9%)
Total Voters: 29

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25707539 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Ibian
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March 18, 2018, 02:11:53 AM

BTC as a payment method has almost never existed. It filled a niche for mid size grey market payments, that is about it. The idea of using it to buy coffee or houses was pushed by the incompetent/collusive.

It has worked very well for me over the past few years of traveling the globe. Sometimes I cannot understand how the plebes spend money in foreign countries. Do they go to the airport currency exchange all the time and get reemed on the rate?
Exchanges in thailand are actually quite reasonable, at least with danish currency. Get around 5 to 1 vs the official 5.15 to 1 rate. How do you go about using bitcoin when traveling?
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El duderino_
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March 18, 2018, 02:20:04 AM

patient and be rewarded = the most easy to explain BTC price ,for them who panic when price decreases

btfd and be a long term winner
d_eddie
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March 18, 2018, 02:26:00 AM

She keeps going down. Hard dump this weekend. Wish my short was bigger.

Long to 7900

Fight the good fight!
I am using this small margin short as a hedge against an ugly crash.
I'm already long with all my stash. No leveraged margin. Actual btc. Long to the moon.
Is it mathematically viable? If the price goes down you make money, yes, but if it goes up do you make more than you lose on the short, only to make a new short higher up and repeat?

As you suspect, it's necessary to prop it up as bitcoin rises, otherwise what you gain on a dip, you lose on a climb. That's what I call babysitting or nursing. One good way to go about it is the 2J-ladder, which in a nutshell means to sell on the way up (make your short larger) and buy on the way down (make it smaller, profiting a bit).

The alternative is to just set up a largish insurance as a one-off expense and forget about it until it's worth redeeming. This is much easier on the nerves and doesn't require that much labor. However, there are issues with this brutal approach: you need to close it (on a loss) as soon as bitcoin rises too much, and reopen it higher (so a bit of monitoring and labor is required after all); it doesn't pay off with small profits when decreasing the size; and finally, it should be done near a maximum to start with. If we were that good at spotting maxima, life would be easier, wouldn't it? But then, the very point of such a hedge would be moot.
bitserve
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March 18, 2018, 02:30:14 AM

Bitcoin Dominance at 44% now. At this rate it could reach 50% before retesting the last bottom. The carnage on the alts is being brutal.
Ibian
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March 18, 2018, 02:32:02 AM

She keeps going down. Hard dump this weekend. Wish my short was bigger.

Long to 7900

Fight the good fight!
I am using this small margin short as a hedge against an ugly crash.
I'm already long with all my stash. No leveraged margin. Actual btc. Long to the moon.
Is it mathematically viable? If the price goes down you make money, yes, but if it goes up do you make more than you lose on the short, only to make a new short higher up and repeat?

As you suspect, it's necessary to prop it up as bitcoin rises, otherwise what you gain on a dip, you lose on a climb. That's what I call babysitting or nursing. One good way to go about it is the 2J-ladder, which in a nutshell means to sell on the way up (make your short larger) and buy on the way down (make it smaller, profiting a bit).

The alternative is to just set up a largish insurance as a one-off expense and forget about it until it's worth redeeming. This is much easier on the nerves and doesn't require that much labor. However, there are issues with this brutal approach: you need to close it (on a loss) as soon as bitcoin rises too much, and reopen it higher (so a bit of monitoring and labor is required after all); it doesn't pay off with small profits when decreasing the size; finally, it should be done near a maximum to start with. If we were that good at spotting maxima, life would be easier, wouldn't it? But then, the very point of such a hedge would be moot.
Wouldn't it be easier to just sell a small percentage of your stash, buy lower if it drops and eat the loss if it goes up?
cAPSLOCK
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March 18, 2018, 02:34:55 AM

Just me?  Or this starting to hurt a little?
d_eddie
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March 18, 2018, 02:36:05 AM

She keeps going down. Hard dump this weekend. Wish my short was bigger.

Long to 7900

Fight the good fight!
I am using this small margin short as a hedge against an ugly crash.
I'm already long with all my stash. No leveraged margin. Actual btc. Long to the moon.
Is it mathematically viable? If the price goes down you make money, yes, but if it goes up do you make more than you lose on the short, only to make a new short higher up and repeat?

As you suspect, it's necessary to prop it up as bitcoin rises, otherwise what you gain on a dip, you lose on a climb. That's what I call babysitting or nursing. One good way to go about it is the 2J-ladder, which in a nutshell means to sell on the way up (make your short larger) and buy on the way down (make it smaller, profiting a bit).

The alternative is to just set up a largish insurance as a one-off expense and forget about it until it's worth redeeming. This is much easier on the nerves and doesn't require that much labor. However, there are issues with this brutal approach: you need to close it (on a loss) as soon as bitcoin rises too much, and reopen it higher (so a bit of monitoring and labor is required after all); it doesn't pay off with small profits when decreasing the size; finally, it should be done near a maximum to start with. If we were that good at spotting maxima, life would be easier, wouldn't it? But then, the very point of such a hedge would be moot.
Wouldn't it be easier to just sell a small percentage of your stash, buy lower if it drops and eat the loss if it goes up?

For several reasons, I like this solution less. There's much more friction involved in selling/buying real btc. Furthermore, I don't like holding more fiat than I need for ordinary expenses. But above all, this would create a series of taxable events that I want to avoid.
pacman7331
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March 18, 2018, 02:36:15 AM
Last edit: March 18, 2018, 02:49:22 AM by pacman7331

Just me?  Or this starting to hurt a little?

Not just u.

Having those regrets about getting back into crytpo again...
Torque
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March 18, 2018, 02:36:31 AM

Bitcoin Dominance at 44% now. At this rate it could reach 50% before retesting the last bottom. The carnage on the alts is being brutal.

Shitcoiners need to face a hard lesson, so they learn that the true value of something isn't because "Well it's valuable because it went up." That's penny stock hopium bullshit.

"The flogging will continue until intelligence and sense returns."  Grin
d_eddie
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March 18, 2018, 02:36:41 AM

Just me?  Or this starting to hurt a little?
A little, you say??  Embarrassed
bitserve
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March 18, 2018, 02:37:16 AM

Just me?  Or this starting to hurt a little?

I donno, I am too depressed to feel any pain right now.
d_eddie
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March 18, 2018, 02:39:07 AM

What do you think is going on?  Huh
Torque
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March 18, 2018, 02:40:13 AM

What do you think is going on?  Huh

Other than miners dumping to pay their bills, and the whales shorting? And Average Joe not jumping in to buy because he scared?

Not much else.
El duderino_
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March 18, 2018, 02:41:06 AM
Merited by HairyMaclairy (1)

What do you think is going on?  Huh

as far as i know i just think there are some peoples trying to safe me mine .25btc  Roll Eyes  Tongue
HairyMaclairy
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March 18, 2018, 02:49:53 AM

Bitcoin Dominance at 44% now. At this rate it could reach 50% before retesting the last bottom. The carnage on the alts is being brutal.

Strict but fair.


HairyMaclairy
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March 18, 2018, 02:51:47 AM

In case you guys haven’t figured this out, this happens every weekend. It just so happens we are currently in an extended downtrend. 
bitserve
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March 18, 2018, 02:53:04 AM

What do you think is going on?  Huh

I donno, I am too depressed to think clearly.

Nahhh, if we kind of forget that the price bubbled too fast to $19K as if it didn't happen yet... we are doing great.

Of course it is not that easy to forget it AND many newbies got burned (as it happens on EACH AND EVERY cycle) so they are all fucking scared to enter right now. Lots of money that is waiting until they feel it is safe "out there".

Fundamentals of crypto and Bitcoin in particular are way better than ever with the most cutting-edge improvements taking place in this year but...

C'on we all expected this correction even sooner than it happened!

I don't think big whales are dumping... but they are probably not gonna pump either until they make completely sure remaining weak hands are not gonna dump onto them.
pacman7331
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March 18, 2018, 02:53:10 AM

What do you think is going on?  Huh

I think this is politics. Governments don’t like unblockable decentralized currency. So we got the whole fucking freedom vs enslavement duality to deal with. The one who is richer wins short term. Long term? I dunno but only the HODLers can win long term. But that means u gotta be ok with seeing 70% + of your investment vanish. This is Bitcoin.

Frankly I just need to stay away from margin trading. HODL is free , margin isn’t.
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March 18, 2018, 02:54:37 AM

You know that run up to the time you finally, but gently launch up from the bed and stagger, eyes watering, to the toilet... get on your knees, throw back the lid and take a couple more cold, short breaths before you wretch your guts out.  Probably three, maybe four good spasms of agony and acrid taste, then a couple more deep breaths, and of course the encore as you struggle to even produce much more than thick drool with each dry heave.

And finally... you feel the incessant misery that has been building up for an hour receding as you stagger up and rinse out your mouth.  It's over.  And you are going to be OK damn it.  In fact you will be just fine.

Well.

We are not quite to that time yet, I am sorry to say.

But it is very close.

And when we are all done, and about to tuck back in bed to rest peacefully...

One of you.

Will be able to ask:

"Who sold at the bottom!?!?"
gentlemand
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March 18, 2018, 02:57:48 AM

The only time my minge will constrict is if it hits $250. Until then I don't really care. The future is shinier than Sirius A after rolling out of a hand car wash.
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