Bitcoin Forum
August 04, 2020, 04:45:42 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.20.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 19 (20.2%)
1-10% - 11 (11.7%)
11-20% - 12 (12.8%)
21-30% - 15 (16%)
31-40% - 4 (4.3%)
41-50% - 10 (10.6%)
51-60% - 7 (7.4%)
61-70% - 5 (5.3%)
71-80% - 3 (3.2%)
81-90% - 2 (2.1%)
91-99% - 0 (0%)
100% - 6 (6.4%)
Total Voters: 94

Pages: « 1 ... 23460 23461 23462 23463 23464 23465 23466 23467 23468 23469 23470 23471 23472 23473 23474 23475 23476 23477 23478 23479 23480 23481 23482 23483 23484 23485 23486 23487 23488 23489 23490 23491 23492 23493 23494 23495 23496 23497 23498 23499 23500 23501 23502 23503 23504 23505 23506 23507 23508 23509 [23510] 23511 23512 23513 23514 23515 23516 23517 23518 23519 23520 23521 23522 23523 23524 23525 23526 23527 23528 23529 23530 23531 23532 23533 23534 23535 23536 23537 23538 23539 23540 23541 23542 23543 23544 23545 23546 23547 23548 23549 23550 23551 23552 23553 23554 23555 23556 23557 23558 23559 23560 ... 27067 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21780888 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (147 posts by 36 users deleted.)
fillippone
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 784
Merit: 3726


I worship Caffeine


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 01:42:33 PM

According to this graph made by PlanB, after the halving of 2024 his model is calling a BTC price of USD 400,000.




I dont like this graph. Because it have same factor for every halving but emission inflation keeps decreasing. So supply pressure from freshly mined coins is smaller and smaller.    
When first halving happened in 2012. 50% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 3600 BTC gave us 0.03425% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 12.5% yearly emission inflation
When last halving happened in 2016. 75% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 1800 BTC gave us 0.01142% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 4.17% yearly emission inflation
At next halving next year 87% of all bitcoins will be already mined and daily emission of 900 BTC will give us 0.00489% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 1.78% yearly emission inflation


12.5/4.17 is more then 4.17/1.78. So impact of halving on price of Bitcoin is decreasing.



BTW Gold average yearly mining inflation is 1.6%

I am not really getting your point.
Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.
Second stock to flow is actually the inverse of inflation rate, so if you are countering this with inflation rate you are actually using the same argument for and against this graph.
Thirdly i get you didn't get the point when saying "halving" are less and less relevant: the opposite is actually true as Stock to Flow is increasing dramatically (and this is a choice made by Satoshi when defining the protocol).

"halving" are less and less relevant to the  price.   This table have factor 8. Price increase every halving for 8 times. That have no sense. Impact of halving on price decreases with every halving. If it had factor 8 at last halving then will have less on this halving and had more on previous halving.  This is my point.   Ofcourse is impossible to see this from price graphs since emission inflation just adds pressure to price increase, but there are also other factors.   
This model is not black magic.
The author used data from 2009-2012 (note: no halving included) and found it pretty accurately as it was able to forecast BTC prices up to 2017.
So your "make no sense" collides with an R^" of 95%: pretty high confidence level for a coincidence or spurious correlation, also when you have a strong rationale.

1596516342
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1596516342

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1596516342
Reply with quote  #2

1596516342
Report to moderator
1596516342
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1596516342

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1596516342
Reply with quote  #2

1596516342
Report to moderator
1596516342
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1596516342

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1596516342
Reply with quote  #2

1596516342
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1596516342
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1596516342

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1596516342
Reply with quote  #2

1596516342
Report to moderator
1596516342
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1596516342

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1596516342
Reply with quote  #2

1596516342
Report to moderator
1596516342
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1596516342

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1596516342
Reply with quote  #2

1596516342
Report to moderator
d_eddie
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1134
Merit: 931



View Profile
April 29, 2019, 01:45:12 PM

Some calculations on the value of bitcoin based on time and effort expelled

(sensible calc snipped - refer to OP)

So there is the answer to how into BTC is roach?

The answer is $ 16,396.88

+1 WOsMerit Globb0!
Febo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2226
Merit: 1186



View Profile
April 29, 2019, 01:48:55 PM

According to this graph made by PlanB, after the halving of 2024 his model is calling a BTC price of USD 400,000.




I dont like this graph. Because it have same factor for every halving but emission inflation keeps decreasing. So supply pressure from freshly mined coins is smaller and smaller.    
When first halving happened in 2012. 50% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 3600 BTC gave us 0.03425% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 12.5% yearly emission inflation
When last halving happened in 2016. 75% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 1800 BTC gave us 0.01142% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 4.17% yearly emission inflation
At next halving next year 87% of all bitcoins will be already mined and daily emission of 900 BTC will give us 0.00489% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 1.78% yearly emission inflation


12.5/4.17 is more then 4.17/1.78. So impact of halving on price of Bitcoin is decreasing.



BTW Gold average yearly mining inflation is 1.6%

I am not really getting your point.
Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.
Second stock to flow is actually the inverse of inflation rate, so if you are countering this with inflation rate you are actually using the same argument for and against this graph.
Thirdly i get you didn't get the point when saying "halving" are less and less relevant: the opposite is actually true as Stock to Flow is increasing dramatically (and this is a choice made by Satoshi when defining the protocol).

"halving" are less and less relevant to the  price.   This table have factor 8. Price increase every halving for 8 times. That have no sense. Impact of halving on price decreases with every halving. If it had factor 8 at last halving then will have less on this halving and had more on previous halving.  This is my point.   Ofcourse is impossible to see this from price graphs since emission inflation just adds pressure to price increase, but there are also other factors.  
This model is not black magic.
The author used data from 2009-2012 (note: no halving included) and found it pretty accurately as it was able to forecast BTC prices up to 2017.
So your "make no sense" collides with an R^" of 95%: pretty high confidence level for a coincidence or spurious correlation, also when you have a strong rationale.

Just take numbers yourself. it is not correct.

Let me go now with this stock of flow. It is just opposite of how I calculated it.

For 2012 9.5, for 2016 should be 24 and for 2020  56.



DoublerHunter
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1428
Merit: 587


WOLF.BET - Provably Fair Crypto Casino


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 01:52:36 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2), JayJuanGee (1)

Is there interesting it here long forecast on bitcoin prediction price?



https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd

When is the next halving? Wink
Last of the V8s
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1554
Merit: 3898


Be a bank


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 01:54:02 PM
Last edit: April 29, 2019, 02:25:05 PM by Last of the V8s

^damn so if that was right, i would lose the bet, but I WOULDA BEEN RIGHT, kinda
someone plot it against the 2015 fractal?


meanwhile in the relentless round of stupidity and scammery
https://www.intergameonline.com/igaming/news/g8c-brings-blockchain-to-house-of-commons
....

https://www.rttnews.com/story.aspx?Id=2996283 Insurance Broker Marsh Unveiling Proof Of Insurance Blockchain Platform
....

https://thefintechtimes.com/blockchain-freelance-market/
....
LFC_Bitcoin
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2156
Merit: 3557


One of the world's leading Bitcoin-powered casinos


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 01:54:55 PM

@Double Hunter -

The next halving is - Reward-Drop ETA date: 23 May 2020 23:23:57

https://bitcoinblockhalf.com
DoublerHunter
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1428
Merit: 587


WOLF.BET - Provably Fair Crypto Casino


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 01:59:09 PM

@Double Hunter -

The next halving is - Reward-Drop ETA date: 23 May 2020 23:23:57

https://bitcoinblockhalf.com

^interesting dude thank u. Wink
There's a halving countdown.
LFC_Bitcoin
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2156
Merit: 3557


One of the world's leading Bitcoin-powered casinos


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 02:05:14 PM

@Double Hunter -

The next halving is - Reward-Drop ETA date: 23 May 2020 23:23:57

https://bitcoinblockhalf.com

^interesting dude thank u. Wink
There's a halving countdown.

There certainly is. I followed it before the last one too Smiley
fillippone
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 784
Merit: 3726


I worship Caffeine


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 02:13:34 PM
Last edit: April 29, 2019, 02:48:20 PM by fillippone

According to this graph made by PlanB, after the halving of 2024 his model is calling a BTC price of USD 400,000.




I dont like this graph. Because it have same factor for every halving but emission inflation keeps decreasing. So supply pressure from freshly mined coins is smaller and smaller.    
When first halving happened in 2012. 50% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 3600 BTC gave us 0.03425% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 12.5% yearly emission inflation
When last halving happened in 2016. 75% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 1800 BTC gave us 0.01142% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 4.17% yearly emission inflation
At next halving next year 87% of all bitcoins will be already mined and daily emission of 900 BTC will give us 0.00489% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 1.78% yearly emission inflation


12.5/4.17 is more then 4.17/1.78. So impact of halving on price of Bitcoin is decreasing.



BTW Gold average yearly mining inflation is 1.6%

I am not really getting your point.
Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.
Second stock to flow is actually the inverse of inflation rate, so if you are countering this with inflation rate you are actually using the same argument for and against this graph.
Thirdly i get you didn't get the point when saying "halving" are less and less relevant: the opposite is actually true as Stock to Flow is increasing dramatically (and this is a choice made by Satoshi when defining the protocol).

"halving" are less and less relevant to the  price.   This table have factor 8. Price increase every halving for 8 times. That have no sense. Impact of halving on price decreases with every halving. If it had factor 8 at last halving then will have less on this halving and had more on previous halving.  This is my point.   Ofcourse is impossible to see this from price graphs since emission inflation just adds pressure to price increase, but there are also other factors.  
This model is not black magic.
The author used data from 2009-2012 (note: no halving included) and found it pretty accurately as it was able to forecast BTC prices up to 2017.
So your "make no sense" collides with an R^" of 95%: pretty high confidence level for a coincidence or spurious correlation, also when you have a strong rationale.

Just take numbers yourself. it is not correct.

Let me go now with this stock of flow. It is just opposite of how I calculated it.

For 2012 9.5, for 2016 should be 24 and for 2020  56.





Well I double checked, for what it is worth.
IF you think you spotted some errors you can double check all the relevant code here:
https://github.com/100trillionUSD/bitcoin

and then interact directly with the author via issue requests.
I am sure he's more than willing to have his numbers set straight (no sarcasm here).
Otherwise you might learn something.



coinlocket$
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 994
Merit: 1311


One of the world's leading Bitcoin-powered casinos


View Profile WWW
April 29, 2019, 02:20:43 PM


Is this prediction updated with a daily base? If yes has a value of 0.

Do we have any past result prediction from the website (only, of course, if is not updated daily otherwise make any sense and are only random numbers)
fillippone
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 784
Merit: 3726


I worship Caffeine


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 02:26:06 PM


Is this prediction updated with a daily base? If yes has a value of 0.

Do we have any past result prediction from the website (only, of course, if is not updated daily otherwise make any sense and are only random numbers)

I would be surprised if any of this "models" has a value >0.

As I posted above, the only price model that could be used to predict prices in 2019 using the data only from 2009-2012 is the one of PlanB.
That is serious stuff.
jbreher
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2828
Merit: 1488


lose: unfind ... loose: untight


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 02:33:41 PM

And “resurfaces” is the wrong term as it implies that the need has previously surfaced, which it has not.  The need may never surface.

You've already banished it from your revisionist history?

There were some high fees in 2017. There was no need for a block size increase as demonstrated by the failure of BCH.

If it was “necessary”, BCH would have won. 

The result was a BTC dominance drop from an overwhelming ~85% to abut half. Are you prepared for a drop to about a quarter next time the stream is blocked? You're whistling past your own graveyard.
DoublerHunter
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1428
Merit: 587


WOLF.BET - Provably Fair Crypto Casino


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 02:34:54 PM


Is this prediction updated with a daily base? If yes has a value of 0.

Do we have any past result prediction from the website (only, of course, if is not updated daily otherwise make any sense and are only random numbers)
^that's why I wanted to know here if they are accurate on giving a forecast in prediction. (they don't have price graph).

I found out that they had a bitcoin price date and also today.
jbreher
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2828
Merit: 1488


lose: unfind ... loose: untight


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 02:38:53 PM

This is under the assumption that the block size wouldn't grow when needed, blocks aren't full without outside attacks so there's no evidence that when the time comes we won't increase the block size to a common sense size.

Well, other than the evidence that blocks were kept small the last time they became persistently full. Which, in itself, is pretty strong evidence.

Once the need resurfaces (and it most certainly will), how long do you think it will take to implement the necessary change?

If it was urgent it could probably be done in 48 hours.   But it won’t be urgent.  

It ain't just a river in Egypt.

I would mostly agree with the bear here.
The last full block crisis resulted in inaction, to force people onto segwit.

Yes, but was the attrition worth it? Especially given the fact that it was all so unnecessary.

Quote
I presume the next full block crisis will result in inaction, to force people onto lightning.

Yes, but will the attrition be worth it? Sanity says no.
kenzawak
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 658
Merit: 851



View Profile
April 29, 2019, 02:42:14 PM

Craig Wright Dubs Binance a ‘Money-Laundering Bucketshop’, Calls John McAfee a Conman

https://www.ccn.com/craig-wright-binance-bucketshop-john-mcafee-a-conman

https://youtu.be/8_SoIXUBIhw

"You have things like CZ (Changpeng Zhao, Binance CEO) there and Binance which is super bucket shop which are basically money laundering organizations. They wash trades and money laundering. That’s how they make money."

jbreher
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2828
Merit: 1488


lose: unfind ... loose: untight


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 02:47:34 PM

Coinbase, Binance, Goldman, And Other Big Crypto Players Met Behind Closed Doors To Discuss The Future Of Crypto

https://www.investinblockchain.com/coinbase-binance-goldman-other-big-crypto-players-met-behind-closed-doors-to-discuss-future-crypto/

oh. yay. derivatives. More tools for the pinstriped bandit class.
ðºÞæ
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1176
Merit: 292


Bitcoin © Maximalist


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 02:48:59 PM
Last edit: April 29, 2019, 03:01:03 PM by ðºÞæ

And Roger reinventing the wheel, going back in time and counts cash
https://youtu.be/34kHTtsJv70
https://bitcoincashnotes.com/
jbreher
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2828
Merit: 1488


lose: unfind ... loose: untight


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 02:50:16 PM

This is under the assumption that the block size wouldn't grow when needed, blocks aren't full without outside attacks so there's no evidence that when the time comes we won't increase the block size to a common sense size.

Well, other than the evidence that blocks were kept small the last time they became persistently full. Which, in itself, is pretty strong evidence.

Once the need resurfaces (and it most certainly will), how long do you think it will take to implement the necessary change?
That was a short spam attack period, you know damn well that was artificial and everyone knew it.

Irony of the recent brouhaha over the definition of 'artificial' is duly noted.

Natural ... artificial ... what does it matter? Effect is the same. It's a vulnerability. An open attack vector if artificial. A suicide if natural.
_javier_
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 444
Merit: 31

Still a manic miner


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 02:50:53 PM

Craig Wright Dubs Binance a ‘Money-Laundering Bucketshop’, Calls John McAfee a Conman

https://www.ccn.com/craig-wright-binance-bucketshop-john-mcafee-a-conman

https://youtu.be/8_SoIXUBIhw

"You have things like CZ (Changpeng Zhao, Binance CEO) there and Binance which is super bucket shop which are basically money laundering organizations. They wash trades and money laundering. That’s how they make money."



disgusting interview of a disgusting actor.

middle finger to you too, "Doctor"
jbreher
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2828
Merit: 1488


lose: unfind ... loose: untight


View Profile
April 29, 2019, 02:52:30 PM

This is under the assumption that the block size wouldn't grow when needed, blocks aren't full without outside attacks so there's no evidence that when the time comes we won't increase the block size to a common sense size.

Well, other than the evidence that blocks were kept small the last time they became persistently full. Which, in itself, is pretty strong evidence.

Once the need resurfaces (and it most certainly will), how long do you think it will take to implement the necessary change?
That was a short spam attack period, you know damn well that was artificial and everyone knew it.

Yes, I remember people posting the addresses of the spammers at the time. That's the good thing about 1mb blocks, spamming gets expensive.
Big blocks are a disaster if there isn't sufficient utility. Say you had 32 MB blocks and only < 2 MB of actual traffic. Someone could easily spam 28 MB per block for peanuts. Sustained over 1 day: 4032 MB of garbage for almost free. Good idea indeed.

You seem to be postulating some novel mechanism by which one can examine each transaction, and classify it as spam vs. notspam. Care to divulge your criteria?
Pages: « 1 ... 23460 23461 23462 23463 23464 23465 23466 23467 23468 23469 23470 23471 23472 23473 23474 23475 23476 23477 23478 23479 23480 23481 23482 23483 23484 23485 23486 23487 23488 23489 23490 23491 23492 23493 23494 23495 23496 23497 23498 23499 23500 23501 23502 23503 23504 23505 23506 23507 23508 23509 [23510] 23511 23512 23513 23514 23515 23516 23517 23518 23519 23520 23521 23522 23523 23524 23525 23526 23527 23528 23529 23530 23531 23532 23533 23534 23535 23536 23537 23538 23539 23540 23541 23542 23543 23544 23545 23546 23547 23548 23549 23550 23551 23552 23553 23554 23555 23556 23557 23558 23559 23560 ... 27067 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!