Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

What CZ@Binance wants,  or when miners want to fork, doesn't matter. They are free to do as they wish.
UASF & 2X was the watershed, when the power was ultimately confirmed to be in the hands of the holders.

"hodlers" have absolutely no power in POW as long as they don't run a node.
UASF does not mean that some dude with btc has the power.
If you think that he has, then you are describing a POS system and even in that system you need to actively 'stake' your stash.
Holding a trezor with btc on the POW system like bitcoin does not make you a "user" in the meaning of UASF.

So I like green dildo's as much as the next guy ..   ( wow, the ways THAT could be taken out of context...)

But I'm starting to get just slightly concerned we may be moving to fast..  anyone besides me getting that feeling?

50% increase in less than 2 months....

We're not in the parabolic mode quite yet.. but it does seem to me we are heading there quite fast..   I'd really like to see at least month or two bouncing around in the low 6xxx range before our next serious step up...

to fast, to soon means we hit a blow off top that is to low to hit my retirement target..  that would... annoy me....

I know that if you look at the last 5 weeks or so, starting from our April 1, break through $4,200, it appears that there has been a bit much in regards to price appreciation.. but bitcoin does these kinds of things.  It is not out of the ordinary.

First of all, there is almost no fucking way that bitcoin is getting to any kind of new ATH within the 10 months (if that is what you mean by "retirement target"), so in that regard, we should expect a decent number of 30% plus corrections between here and $20k... but even going from here to $20k is more than a 3x price appreciation, so in order to return to $20k (which is NOT an unreasonable expectation) we should be anticipating both periods of seeming froth that goes along with correction, and also the fact that sometimes the seeming froth is not really froth, but just getting back to previous price points (let's say in the $6k range), and maybe we could see a 50% or more price appreciation from here before any meaningful correction in the 30% plus arena takes place.

In other words, it is almost pie in the sky for any experienced bitcoiner to really be expecting any kind of smooth sailing (or that infamously unrealistic word, "stability") between here and $20k and beyond, including likely ongoing emotional turmoil.

I am not "expecting" it, but it is possible if we are on a "hockey stick" of btc adoption.
Roughly: we almost doubled in less than 6 mo. If we are already on an exponent, then 12K could come in 3 mo, then 24K in another 1.5 mo, projecting 24K in 4.5 mo or by October 2019.
If we are on a linear rapid growth starting with the surge from 4K, then we might reach about 10K by November, then probably pause.
I give the first scenario 10-20% probability and the second one 40-50% probability.
The third scenario (where we pause at 6K)-maybe 30-50% probability.

[Paashaas]

[vapourminer]

i cant see my cat-with-the-hat avatar on there. but since cats have built in stealth technology im not surprised. hes there somewhere. he will be seen when he wants to.

@vapourminer

So here you are...
You sit inside the train

thanks i see him now.

id love to blame my lack of seeing it to age and vision deficiencies.. but drugz is likely the main culprit

[gembitz]

 

6k >_> timber weeeee

[El duderino_]

It's time again, gonna change my HAT in this one when I play poker.

Today its the first session of another run in our friendly online poker session
terms are 1-2 times game a week for a long time t'ill end I think end summer .....

Game Texas online turbo tournament start stacks 10k- chips equals a BTC-amount, blinds go up every 3minutes

Let's go and hope for the best.

Every session day I will wear the exclusively tailor made XhomerX HAT for the best of luck

[jojo69]

It's time again, gonna change my HAT in this one when I play poker.

Today its the first session of another run in our friendly online poker session
terms are 1-2 times game a week for a long time t'ill end I think end summer .....

Game Texas online turbo tournament start stacks 10k- chips equals a BTC-amount, blinds go up every 3minutes

Let's go and hope for the best.

Every session day I will wear the exclusively tailor made XhomerX HAT for the best of luck

before you change your hat, has anyone heard anything on Elwar??

[cAPSLOCK]

^^

where do you live?

Henichesk?  On the beach maybe?

[MrFreeRoMan]

Henichesk?  On the beach maybe?

Almost to the point) Maybe I crookedly put geo) Anonymity first of all!

[Last of the V8s]

Oh how wonderful to hear from you, Elwar!
Wish you the very best.

[Biodom]

^^

where do you live?

Henichesk?  On the beach maybe?

more like Kyrylivka if the dot position is correct (in any case, it is Ukraine on or close to the Sea of Azov beach).

[El duderino_]

It's time again, gonna change my HAT in this one when I play poker.

Today its the first session of another run in our friendly online poker session
terms are 1-2 times game a week for a long time t'ill end I think end summer .....

Game Texas online turbo tournament start stacks 10k- chips equals a BTC-amount, blinds go up every 3minutes

Let's go and hope for the best.

Every session day I will wear the exclusively tailor made XhomerX HAT for the best of luck

before you change your hat, has anyone heard anything on Elwar??

I'm still alive.

Bitcoin played a major role in that.

The HAT changes tomorrow again

And to be alive is most important

But being ok, whiteout any trouble, good place to stay no problems and so on is also very important and to not lose the stuff you still have in thailand

[kenzawak]

I'm still alive.

Bitcoin played a major role in that.

Very good news. I hope you'll be able to achieve your dream.
Stay safe.

[d_eddie]

Banana kingdom
couldn't capture seasteaders
Nadia and Elwar

[vapourminer]

I'm still alive.

man is it good to see you post here again!

stay safe and update when you can. but obviously dont take any risks to do so. we can wait.

[cAPSLOCK]

You're bored so you deem it acceptable to bore us with your unoriginal stories

Ok how bout this version?

I won my first bitcoin (1,450 of them) from Hal Finney in a bet of whether or not bitcoin could gain resistance from DDOS attacks by implementing two lines of code I had written for my own e-money, ByteCash. I was the biggest donator of btc to WikiLeaks, as I used to go to strip clubs with Julian Assange on the regular, and I also taught Ross Ulbricht everything he knows. He would have stayed out of prison had he heeded my advice but he was too much of a smarty pants.

Also, Last of the V8s is my bastard son.

You made bytecash?  Nicholas?  Is that you?  Is that why you hate Monero so?

[cAPSLOCK]

He's like a broken record:

Nouriel Roubini at Salt Conference in NY: Crypto Is the Mother and Father of All Bubbles .

It he were a broken clock he'd be right twice a day.
A broken record is only a useless strain to ears.

You know... as long as he just keeps being right about this...

[JimboToronto]

Buenos dias Bitcoinland.

The battle for $6k continues... currently $6027USD/$8135CAD (Bitcoinaverage). This could take a while.

We'll all feel a lot better when we hit $7k.

Go Bitcoin go.

[JayJuanGee]

So I like green dildo's as much as the next guy ..   ( wow, the ways THAT could be taken out of context...)

But I'm starting to get just slightly concerned we may be moving to fast..  anyone besides me getting that feeling?

50% increase in less than 2 months....

We're not in the parabolic mode quite yet.. but it does seem to me we are heading there quite fast..   I'd really like to see at least month or two bouncing around in the low 6xxx range before our next serious step up...

to fast, to soon means we hit a blow off top that is to low to hit my retirement target..  that would... annoy me....

I know that if you look at the last 5 weeks or so, starting from our April 1, break through $4,200, it appears that there has been a bit much in regards to price appreciation.. but bitcoin does these kinds of things.  It is not out of the ordinary.

First of all, there is almost no fucking way that bitcoin is getting to any kind of new ATH within the 10 months (if that is what you mean by "retirement target"), so in that regard, we should expect a decent number of 30% plus corrections between here and $20k... but even going from here to $20k is more than a 3x price appreciation, so in order to return to $20k (which is NOT an unreasonable expectation) we should be anticipating both periods of seeming froth that goes along with correction, and also the fact that sometimes the seeming froth is not really froth, but just getting back to previous price points (let's say in the $6k range), and maybe we could see a 50% or more price appreciation from here before any meaningful correction in the 30% plus arena takes place.

In other words, it is almost pie in the sky for any experienced bitcoiner to really be expecting any kind of smooth sailing (or that infamously unrealistic word, "stability") between here and $20k and beyond, including likely ongoing emotional turmoil.

I am not "expecting" it, but it is possible if we are on a "hockey stick" of btc adoption.
Roughly: we almost doubled in less than 6 mo. If we are already on an exponent, then 12K could come in 3 mo, then 24K in another 1.5 mo, projecting 24K in 4.5 mo or by October 2019.
If we are on a linear rapid growth starting with the surge from 4K, then we might reach about 10K by November, then probably pause.
I give the first scenario 10-20% probability and the second one 40-50% probability.
The third scenario (where we pause at 6K)-maybe 30-50% probability.

Sure, any of your above described scenarios are probable, yet it seems that scenario 1 would be less than 10% chance, but at least you do recognize that scenario to be of quite a bit lesser probability, than your other two scenarios.  Furthermore, we surely can be on a hockey stick and aiming towards the exponential upswing of the hockey stick while still experiencing either scenario 2 or 3... and we could also experience a scenario 4, which is to correct back down into the $3ks and then come back up again... and still be in the early stages of the exponential portion of the hockey stick.

[600watt]

It's time again, gonna change my HAT in this one when I play poker.

Today its the first session of another run in our friendly online poker session
terms are 1-2 times game a week for a long time t'ill end I think end summer .....

Game Texas online turbo tournament start stacks 10k- chips equals a BTC-amount, blinds go up every 3minutes

Let's go and hope for the best.

Every session day I will wear the exclusively tailor made XhomerX HAT for the best of luck

before you change your hat, has anyone heard anything on Elwar??

I'm still alive.

Bitcoin played a major role in that.

welcome back elwar

[fillippone]

It's time again, gonna change my HAT in this one when I play poker.

Today its the first session of another run in our friendly online poker session
terms are 1-2 times game a week for a long time t'ill end I think end summer .....

Game Texas online turbo tournament start stacks 10k- chips equals a BTC-amount, blinds go up every 3minutes

Let's go and hope for the best.

Every session day I will wear the exclusively tailor made XhomerX HAT for the best of luck

before you change your hat, has anyone heard anything on Elwar??

I'm still alive.

Bitcoin played a major role in that.

Wow
Glad to see your post!
Hopefully you won't give up dreaming on a better society based on the values of BTC!
We need you!