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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25814586 times)
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Last of the V8s
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April 29, 2019, 12:23:50 PM

https://hackernoon.com/armageddon-binance-chain-dex-ethereum-7bb867ea71cb

really overblown title for otherwise informative article on CZ's word-salad implementation
he might be left holding the baby

a lot of this depends on whether the EU can whip Malta into line
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April 29, 2019, 12:27:33 PM

https://hackernoon.com/armageddon-binance-chain-dex-ethereum-7bb867ea71cb

really overblown title for otherwise informative article on CZ's word-salad implementation
he might be left holding the baby

a lot of this depends on whether the EU can whip Malta into line
Why would anyone want to go to a centralized token? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of many of these projects? I don't get the hype over CZs "eth killer"
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April 29, 2019, 12:31:56 PM

https://hackernoon.com/armageddon-binance-chain-dex-ethereum-7bb867ea71cb

really overblown title for otherwise informative article on CZ's word-salad implementation
he might be left holding the baby

a lot of this depends on whether the EU can whip Malta into line
Why would anyone want to go to a centralized token? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of many of these projects? I don't get the hype over CZs "eth killer"
I guess everyone remembers that an obvious scam like ETH went to 1400 beer tokens per in the last bull market, and they're hoping their obvious scams will do likewise in the next.
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April 29, 2019, 12:32:32 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), gentlemand (1), infofront (1), El duderino_ (1)

Some calculations on the value of bitcoin based on time and effort expelled





So there is the answer to how into BTC is roach?

The answer is $ 16,396.88
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April 29, 2019, 12:45:01 PM

Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.

*statist claptrap censored*
If you carefully read what I wrote, You'll understand I didn't stated he invented the concept, but I stated he was the first to apply it to Bitcoin.

https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/875873520290598913
You can see him working on it here
https://thesaifhouse.wpcomstaging.com/2016/07/09/the-bitcoin-halving-and-monetary-competition/
whereas this was earlier, but wasn't really picked up
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3db9nn/stocktoflow_ratio_of_bitcoin_surpasses_that_of/

Firstof all sorry If i quoted *someone* without proper warning. I don't want to be insta-ignored by anyone , I plead guilty not being part of this WO family so I need to cachup with all the feuds going on.
Secondly I think then you basically agree with me, The concept is not new, but i think that someone writing in  a reddit post doesn't mean Saifedean has pagiarised anyone, did he?

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April 29, 2019, 12:56:07 PM

That’s hilarious Globbo
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April 29, 2019, 12:58:00 PM

Sorry for quoting the Roach, guys, but this may be worth a laugh. I was (passive-aggressively) amused.

So I guess he isn't one of the respected leaders here ... I wasn't sure since there is a lot of noise in this very lively thread.   Anyway don't be too hard on him.   He is likely bed bound due to excessive weight or something like that.  At least he identifies himself as something undesirable.    A couple years ago when I left bitcointalk guys like him seemed to rule this forum.   Now it seems their presence is pretty controlled.  

Frankly I had given up on Bitcoin a couple years ago after being scammed so many times and being accused of being a scammer whenever I just spoke what I thought.   If I had just been a holder I would be sitting pretty!   At one point I had over 50 times the amount of BTC I do now!  
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April 29, 2019, 12:58:07 PM

I guess everyone remembers that an obvious scam like ETH went to 1400 beer tokens per in the last bull market, and they're hoping their obvious scams will do likewise in the next.

The most distressing part was choosing not to participate in the initial crowd sale of 2000 ETH per BTC because it was such an obvious scam.  

1 BTC then would be 58 BTC today.
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April 29, 2019, 01:14:50 PM

I guess everyone remembers that an obvious scam like ETH went to 1400 beer tokens per in the last bull market, and they're hoping their obvious scams will do likewise in the next.

The most distressing part was choosing not to participate in the initial crowd sale of 2000 ETH per BTC because it was such an obvious scam.  

1 BTC then would be 58 BTC today.
and one's soul would be an empty grey husk
looking for the next scam
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April 29, 2019, 01:23:39 PM

Indeed

If you went for the ETH scam you would have gone for the other scams too and been a Storj bag holder etc
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April 29, 2019, 01:29:56 PM

Firstof all sorry If i quoted *someone* without proper warning. I don't want to be insta-ignored by anyone , I plead guilty not being part of this WO family so I need to cachup with all the feuds going on.
Secondly I think then you basically agree with me, The concept is not new, but i think that someone writing in  a reddit post doesn't mean Saifedean has pagiarised anyone, did he?
Yeah most people prefer one not to quote roach or even engage him. Some do engage, but to no effect. He's a stupid troll. I wouldn't pay him anything for his bleating, as there's far better material out there to attack us with, and he ignores it. He clearly just wants to buy low.
No, no plagiarism or disagreement implied, just presenting some history of a work-in-progress, many minds muddling together sort of thing. Of course when the #trilema search comes back up, we'll probably find stock to flow was discussed there in 2013 or something.
saifedean, shelby (anonymint of this parish) and tiny moi all acknowledge our learning from #trilema. roach feigns originality where there is none.
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April 29, 2019, 01:35:55 PM
Last edit: April 29, 2019, 01:46:28 PM by Febo

According to this graph made by PlanB, after the halving of 2024 his model is calling a BTC price of USD 400,000.




I dont like this graph. Because it have same factor for every halving but emission inflation keeps decreasing. So supply pressure from freshly mined coins is smaller and smaller.    
When first halving happened in 2012. 50% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 3600 BTC gave us 0.03425% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 12.5% yearly emission inflation
When last halving happened in 2016. 75% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 1800 BTC gave us 0.01142% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 4.17% yearly emission inflation
At next halving next year 87% of all bitcoins will be already mined and daily emission of 900 BTC will give us 0.00489% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 1.78% yearly emission inflation


12.5/4.17 is more then 4.17/1.78. So impact of halving on price of Bitcoin is decreasing.



BTW Gold average yearly mining inflation is 1.6%

I am not really getting your point.
Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.
Second stock to flow is actually the inverse of inflation rate, so if you are countering this with inflation rate you are actually using the same argument for and against this graph.
Thirdly i get you didn't get the point when saying "halving" are less and less relevant: the opposite is actually true as Stock to Flow is increasing dramatically (and this is a choice made by Satoshi when defining the protocol).

"halving" are less and less relevant to the  price.   This table have factor 8. Price increase every halving for 8 times. That have no sense. Impact of halving on price decreases with every halving. If it had factor 8 at last halving then will have less on this halving and had more on previous halving.  This is my point.   Ofcourse is impossible to see this from price graphs since emission inflation just adds pressure to price increase, but there are also other factors.    Or better example to be more clear. If USD will not have huge inflation in next 10 years we will for sure not see a $2.8m bitcoin around year 2028.
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April 29, 2019, 01:42:33 PM

According to this graph made by PlanB, after the halving of 2024 his model is calling a BTC price of USD 400,000.




I dont like this graph. Because it have same factor for every halving but emission inflation keeps decreasing. So supply pressure from freshly mined coins is smaller and smaller.    
When first halving happened in 2012. 50% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 3600 BTC gave us 0.03425% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 12.5% yearly emission inflation
When last halving happened in 2016. 75% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 1800 BTC gave us 0.01142% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 4.17% yearly emission inflation
At next halving next year 87% of all bitcoins will be already mined and daily emission of 900 BTC will give us 0.00489% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 1.78% yearly emission inflation


12.5/4.17 is more then 4.17/1.78. So impact of halving on price of Bitcoin is decreasing.



BTW Gold average yearly mining inflation is 1.6%

I am not really getting your point.
Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.
Second stock to flow is actually the inverse of inflation rate, so if you are countering this with inflation rate you are actually using the same argument for and against this graph.
Thirdly i get you didn't get the point when saying "halving" are less and less relevant: the opposite is actually true as Stock to Flow is increasing dramatically (and this is a choice made by Satoshi when defining the protocol).

"halving" are less and less relevant to the  price.   This table have factor 8. Price increase every halving for 8 times. That have no sense. Impact of halving on price decreases with every halving. If it had factor 8 at last halving then will have less on this halving and had more on previous halving.  This is my point.   Ofcourse is impossible to see this from price graphs since emission inflation just adds pressure to price increase, but there are also other factors.   
This model is not black magic.
The author used data from 2009-2012 (note: no halving included) and found it pretty accurately as it was able to forecast BTC prices up to 2017.
So your "make no sense" collides with an R^" of 95%: pretty high confidence level for a coincidence or spurious correlation, also when you have a strong rationale.

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April 29, 2019, 01:45:12 PM

Some calculations on the value of bitcoin based on time and effort expelled

(sensible calc snipped - refer to OP)

So there is the answer to how into BTC is roach?

The answer is $ 16,396.88

+1 WOsMerit Globb0!
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April 29, 2019, 01:48:55 PM

According to this graph made by PlanB, after the halving of 2024 his model is calling a BTC price of USD 400,000.




I dont like this graph. Because it have same factor for every halving but emission inflation keeps decreasing. So supply pressure from freshly mined coins is smaller and smaller.    
When first halving happened in 2012. 50% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 3600 BTC gave us 0.03425% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 12.5% yearly emission inflation
When last halving happened in 2016. 75% of all Bitcoin was mined and daily emission of 1800 BTC gave us 0.01142% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 4.17% yearly emission inflation
At next halving next year 87% of all bitcoins will be already mined and daily emission of 900 BTC will give us 0.00489% daily emission inflation what is if we multiply with 365 days = 1.78% yearly emission inflation


12.5/4.17 is more then 4.17/1.78. So impact of halving on price of Bitcoin is decreasing.



BTW Gold average yearly mining inflation is 1.6%

I am not really getting your point.
Firstly this Stock to flow is not a new concept. As far as I know it was proposed in the bitcoin environment in by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking.
Second stock to flow is actually the inverse of inflation rate, so if you are countering this with inflation rate you are actually using the same argument for and against this graph.
Thirdly i get you didn't get the point when saying "halving" are less and less relevant: the opposite is actually true as Stock to Flow is increasing dramatically (and this is a choice made by Satoshi when defining the protocol).

"halving" are less and less relevant to the  price.   This table have factor 8. Price increase every halving for 8 times. That have no sense. Impact of halving on price decreases with every halving. If it had factor 8 at last halving then will have less on this halving and had more on previous halving.  This is my point.   Ofcourse is impossible to see this from price graphs since emission inflation just adds pressure to price increase, but there are also other factors.  
This model is not black magic.
The author used data from 2009-2012 (note: no halving included) and found it pretty accurately as it was able to forecast BTC prices up to 2017.
So your "make no sense" collides with an R^" of 95%: pretty high confidence level for a coincidence or spurious correlation, also when you have a strong rationale.

Just take numbers yourself. it is not correct.

Let me go now with this stock of flow. It is just opposite of how I calculated it.

For 2012 9.5, for 2016 should be 24 and for 2020  56.



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April 29, 2019, 01:52:36 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2), JayJuanGee (1)

Is there interesting it here long forecast on bitcoin prediction price?



https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd

When is the next halving? Wink
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April 29, 2019, 01:54:02 PM
Last edit: April 29, 2019, 02:25:05 PM by Last of the V8s

^damn so if that was right, i would lose the bet, but I WOULDA BEEN RIGHT, kinda
someone plot it against the 2015 fractal?


meanwhile in the relentless round of stupidity and scammery
https://www.intergameonline.com/igaming/news/g8c-brings-blockchain-to-house-of-commons
....

https://www.rttnews.com/story.aspx?Id=2996283 Insurance Broker Marsh Unveiling Proof Of Insurance Blockchain Platform
....

https://thefintechtimes.com/blockchain-freelance-market/
....
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April 29, 2019, 01:54:55 PM

@Double Hunter -

The next halving is - Reward-Drop ETA date: 23 May 2020 23:23:57

https://bitcoinblockhalf.com
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April 29, 2019, 01:59:09 PM

@Double Hunter -

The next halving is - Reward-Drop ETA date: 23 May 2020 23:23:57

https://bitcoinblockhalf.com

^interesting dude thank u. Wink
There's a halving countdown.
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April 29, 2019, 02:05:14 PM

@Double Hunter -

The next halving is - Reward-Drop ETA date: 23 May 2020 23:23:57

https://bitcoinblockhalf.com

^interesting dude thank u. Wink
There's a halving countdown.

There certainly is. I followed it before the last one too Smiley
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