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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25814581 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Lambie Slayer
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April 28, 2019, 12:27:06 PM

bitfinex - bitstamp spread increased to $330 and it's still climbing

USDTUSD is also increasing on bitfinex.

bitfinex bitcoin: 5525
bitfinex tether: 1.0352

can someone try to explain this? Should not the tether price dump with all this tether fud?

something weird is going on, I smell dynamite. bitcoin will bart up soon.

Tin Foil Hat - Customers are dumping tether for Bitcoin and withdrawing the Bitcoin. Bitfinex execs, to slow this bank run down and avoid prison for a few more months, are selling customers Bitcoins behind their back for tether to pump up the tether price and stop Bitfinex Bitcoin price from getting to high. This will work until they run out of coins which may not happen. In that case they would hope to spend years behind the scenes slowly replacing customer funds with profits and pretending like nothing ever happened until some regulator sues them.


 
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vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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April 28, 2019, 12:28:29 PM
Merited by bitserve (1)


Major suckage.

"I may have lost the seed" - WTaF? Adding insult to injury.
Awww man, I hate to hear that, hopefully it's just a hiccup and he has been able to get into it since.

hes ok

https://old.reddit.com/r/TREZOR/comments/begdhm/my_trezor_is_not_recognized_by_any_computer/ely7bzd/?context=1
El duderino_
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April 28, 2019, 12:29:00 PM

Majormax
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April 28, 2019, 12:29:01 PM

^
Tnx, I will work a little more on this, I will include username and registration date.



My point of view is that if Tether and Bfx do not end in a drama..., we'll go up to $ 6000, go down 1,000 or 1,500 and then start climbing to finish the year at $10,000, in my opinion.

Looking at it realistically, surely there is virtually no chance of that sort of volatility this year ?

A range of $3k to 7k  will most likely hold.  Of course every scenario has some probability, but $1500/$10,000 are most unlikely in the space of just 7 months.
hacker1001101001
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April 28, 2019, 12:30:40 PM

@Bitcoininfo, a BCH supportive handle on twitter, tipped 10,000$ in BCH to some supports and random charity's on Twitter.

Know more about it here: https://news.bitcoin.com/old-twitter-account-gives-away-10k-in-bitcoin-cash-in-48-hours/

Hoping for Satoshi to come here and tip some good amount of BTC to us from his 1 million BTC walllet !  Grin
El duderino_
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April 28, 2019, 12:32:19 PM



Glad the incident didn't ruin your saturday night but... Please be careful with that (the bolded part) !!

If you have had the bad luck of being caught again while the driving license was officially suspended (and presumably still lightly "intoxicated") you would have been charged with no license plus alcohol driving and maybe risk being throw to jail. Very small chance but... why risk it?

Be careful with those laws, they could seriously hurt your lifestyle if you get unlucky. I had a near miss one in which I finally resulted acquitted after years of litigation. Not fun, believe me. I learnt my lesson for sure.

It really was 1 minute drive where I need to be, chance was almost non of them being there, back home my GF did the driving of-course Smiley

But you are right never take the chance of being caught again .....
Lambie Slayer
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April 28, 2019, 12:43:29 PM
Merited by bones261 (2), El duderino_ (1), HairyMaclairy (1)

level 1
Wesleypipes421
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edited 7 hours ago

"So I've been doing some research to identify the key macro thematic going forward for FX trading and I think I've discovered something really interesting relating to BTC by accident.

Basically I've been comparing certain FX pairs to the Ishares emerging market ETF (based on the MSCI EM index) to see correlations and what is driving price action. Anyways I flicked through my TradingView tabs to BTCUSD with EEM (Ishares EM ETF ticker) still on compare and spotted something which I feel isn't a mere coincidence.

Bitcoins price since the end of the 2015 bear market has shown a reasonably strong correlation with the health of emerging markets:



Of course, as is observable from the left of that chart the correlation didn't exist prior to 2015:



This shows that what I think I am observing now with regards to a potential correlation didn't exists prior to 2015.

Anyhow, I thought to myself that there may be a longer term trend correlation, but not a short term correlation. Because of that thought I was eager to see if certain swings in BTC's price have shown a strong correlation with certain swings in the EEM index and I found a few examples:

The February 6th crash and subsequent risk on rally showed a strong correlation which eventually broke into April:



The May/June sell off from 10k coincided with a harsh sell off in the EEM index:



The June/July bull trap rally showed a strong correlation which held all the way until the end of the hidden bull whale grind rally:



After this point EEM continued to capitulate whilst BTC played its boring game at 6k, it wasn't long though before Bitcoin played catch up:



Now looking at that chart it seems that in the last 7 months the concurrent correlation has broken down, but it seems like EEM is now leading BTC and that favorable conditions in Emerging Markets correlate with favorable conditions for Bitcoin.

What does this mean if this correlation is actually legitimate?

Well firstly it means that Bitcoin isn't an uncorrelated asset class anymore and that the uncorrelated narrative has been untrue since 2015. Bitcoin is a play on the health of Emerging Markets and by proxy China and whenever those markets get rekt the Bitcoin market also deteriorates.

Secondly it means that a macro thematic can be extremely useful in deciphering Bitcoin's price action going forward and seems like a must have for any trader looking maintain an holistic view of the Bitcoin market.

Thirdly it means that the strength of the Chinese economy (which buoys and leads EM) is very important, it also means that the strength of the US Dollar is important because a strong dollar is what causes EM problems.

On that last thought here is a chart of BTC vs DXY (Dollar Index) Inverted, its not as strong a correlation compared to EEM but there is something there:



Anyway, I know a lot of the pro Bitcoin crowd are fairly stubborn and dismissive of legacy people trying to frame macro analysis over Bitcoin and if you're one of those people feel free to toss this out or critique it below. But (at least to my eye) this macro theme looks legit so although I have already been using it for trading Fx pairs I may also use it now to analyze Bitcoin's price for future trading opportunities."
El duderino_
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April 28, 2019, 12:48:51 PM

Breaking Down Bitcoin’s Price Trends with The Dow Theory, by @singhsoro



https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1122458056116330499
bitserve
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April 28, 2019, 01:02:19 PM


very glad to hear that he is well Smiley
d_eddie
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April 28, 2019, 01:11:50 PM

bitfinex - bitstamp spread increased to $330 and it's still climbing

USDTUSD is also increasing on bitfinex.

bitfinex bitcoin: 5525
bitfinex tether: 1.0352

can someone try to explain this? Should not the tether price dump with all this tether fud?

something weird is going on, I smell dynamite. bitcoin will bart up soon.

Tin Foil Hat - Customers are dumping tether for Bitcoin and withdrawing the Bitcoin. Bitfinex execs, to slow this bank run down and avoid prison for a few more months, are selling customers Bitcoins behind their back for tether to pump up the tether price and stop Bitfinex Bitcoin price from getting to high. This will work until they run out of coins which may not happen. In that case they would hope to spend years behind the scenes slowly replacing customer funds with profits and pretending like nothing ever happened until some regulator sues them.
 
Lambie at his finest. +1 WOsMerit!
d_eddie
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April 28, 2019, 01:17:30 PM


Please let me suggest you to add some cologne spraying between each rep for full endurance training.
From the horse's mouth. Duly merited now. WOsMerit alone couldn't pay justice to crabs and stuff.



No offence meant, Captain! I love me some fine WOsM alright, i's just tha' the peep bitserve is on his way to legend and could use some standard, boring sMerit too. Besides, the crabs/balls/alcohol thing was one of the best features round here recently.
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April 28, 2019, 01:18:24 PM

that would be my definition of "huge relief".. i can only wonder of that device contents  Roll Eyes
d_eddie
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April 28, 2019, 01:21:37 PM

On a more serious note, I want to hear it all from Elwar once the dust has settled.
bitserve
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April 28, 2019, 01:24:45 PM


Please let me suggest you to add some cologne spraying between each rep for full endurance training.
From the horse's mouth. Duly merited now. WOsMerit alone couldn't pay justice to crabs and stuff.



No offence meant, Captain! I love me some fine WOsM alright, i's just tha' the peep bitserve is on his way to legend and could use some standard, boring sMerit too. Besides, the crabs/balls/alcohol thing was one of the best features round here recently.

Thanks bro!

But let's just clarify that it was not crabs but unusual exercise friction most probably and surely some balls + alcohol were involved Tongue

My balls are fine now... and I still think the alcohol helped even if I had to pay some price for a couple minutes.

It is still a mistery to me why I don't feel any pain when I apply alcohol to open/bloody wounds (yeah, I use it for everything from inside and out)  but it felt like burning hell when I did to my itching balls skin but... whateva, it fucking worked!
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April 28, 2019, 01:29:50 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

snip

I am feeling like wearing a hat lately. Where do I apply/sign? Smiley

XhomerX is your man, can always PM him if he missed your post.... You'll be a HAT wearer before you know it Smiley


 “You're only human. You live once and life is wonderful so eat the damn red velvet cupcake!”
―  Emily Jean "Emma" Stone

 

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 ...blue and black are Emma's favourite colours.

El duderino_
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April 28, 2019, 01:34:03 PM

^
Great stuff once again Smiley
bitserve
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April 28, 2019, 01:36:32 PM

snip

I am feeling like wearing a hat lately. Where do I apply/sign? Smiley

XhomerX is your man, can always PM him if he missed your post.... You'll be a HAT wearer before you know it Smiley


 “You're only human. You live once and life is wonderful so eat the damn red velvet cupcake!”
―  Emily Jean "Emma" Stone

 

 Avatar-sized

 

 ...blue and black are Emma's favourite colours.



Awesome job! It looks even more 3d in its avatar version instead of losing detail!
d_eddie
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April 28, 2019, 01:36:45 PM

But let's just clarify that it was not crabs
Don't take the tree crabs out of the story please!
I'll pretend I didn't read that.
rdbase
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April 28, 2019, 01:40:35 PM

But let's just clarify that it was not crabs
Don't take the tree crabs out of the story please!
I'll pretend I didn't read that.
Haha! Cheesy

Also I think the guy on your hat dies first in the episode tonight for got. Embarrassed
asche
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April 28, 2019, 01:41:10 PM


 “You're only human. You live once and life is wonderful so eat the damn red velvet cupcake!”
―  Emily Jean "Emma" Stone

 

 Avatar-sized

 

 ...blue and black are Emma's favourite colours.



F*ck this is amazing. Now I am also considering changing my Personal Text into that quote....

Love you man Smiley
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