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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25491662 times)
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September 07, 2019, 11:38:15 PM
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I was also a little bit distracted. Because some of the users received/sent a merit today and i had to add them and edit again.
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September 07, 2019, 11:45:45 PM

I was also a little bit distracted. Because some of the users received a merit today and i had to add them and edit again.

Sure.
How about a nice chart (we all like charts)?
We need to one-up that planB fella and HM's fractal is lagging, albeit it would match at some point if we would be in the range for a while.
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September 07, 2019, 11:52:44 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), Biodom (1), ssmc2 (1), Dunkelheit667 (1), SuperTA (1)

Golden cross on the weekly, as the 30 week (green) crosses the 100 week (orange) from below.  In 2015, this golden cross occurred during a period of extended consolidation.  In 2019, this cross occurs during a period of extended consolidation...

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September 07, 2019, 11:58:34 PM

Golden cross.  Cheesy
Without it, I know Bitcoin will do have to reconsolidate, for months. In my opinion, its reconsolidation will not finish earlier than late of December this year. From that month, bitcoin might jump into its new bullish trend, that might be triggered officially in later half of March in 2020.
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September 08, 2019, 12:02:05 AM

A fractal view

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September 08, 2019, 12:05:51 AM

Golden cross.  Cheesy
Without it, I know Bitcoin will do have to reconsolidate, for months. In my opinion, its reconsolidation will not finish earlier than late of December this year. From that month, bitcoin might jump into its new bullish trend, that might be triggered officially in later half of March in 2020.

I believe we will have a rally in October that will push us higher.  It is certainly within the realms of possibility, although unlikely, that we could go sideways from here all the way to June 2020.  But I don't think that will happen. 
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September 08, 2019, 12:08:16 AM
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Our current giant bull flag

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September 08, 2019, 12:10:56 AM

Multi-year perspective

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September 08, 2019, 12:16:43 AM
Last edit: September 08, 2019, 12:27:18 AM by Biodom

Golden cross on the weekly, as the 30 week (green) crosses the 100 week (orange) from below.  In 2015, this golden cross occurred during a period of extended consolidation.  In 2019, this cross occurs during a period of extended consolidation...


In 2015 30wk over 100wk in October, immediate rally from the relative flat into halving in June 2016

In 2019 30wk over 100wk in September...immediate rally from consolidation into halving in May 2020?
Duration would match...predicted price (by the end of may)...(805/320)X10550=$26540 (a bit too high?)
Anon predicted 29K in Feb and 56K in July (no graph)...I might believe it IF we hit 16K in October.
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September 08, 2019, 12:20:23 AM



Btc/Usd

For the short term i'm watching the yellow EMA line, which currently acts as a support on the 4h chart. The 4h candle closed above it. Currently the yellow line is around 10.270 Usd. If it stays above it will be bullish. If not we will find other support.


You sound undeniably correct.

BTC's price is going to go down until it stops going down, and if it does not stop going down where it should stop, then BTC's price is going to go down more.

I have learned a lot about bitcoin and about myself from such observations.    Wink  The chart helps to make that point, too.. Comes off as more professional.  Wink

I don't know about you but i buy on the support bounce. So i bought some back. If it reaches my target between 10.800 and 11.000 i sold 3 times already there. Yes it goes up and down but i tell where is the support (buy) and where resistance (sell). If it goes bellow support it means sell. (well i trade only 20% of my holdings, i never sell all.) Trader has to be prepared for both ways.

I don't really classify myself as a trader, even though in about late 2015, I began to sell small amounts of BTC on the way up in order to help to prepare for any further price drops, if they were to occur, and to take advantage of seemingly inevitable BTC price volatility. Between late 2013 and late 2015, I had considered myself as ONLY a BTC accumulator, so during that whole time, I had a budget and various targets to buy BTC in a kind of aggressive way to reach my targets, which largely took me about a year to get to decent comfort levels in terms of reaching my targets, but I still continued to dollar cost average buy BTC in 2015 and if I ever spent any BTC during that period I would replace such sold BTC within a day or two.

I think that I had considered buying BTC when the price goes down and selling BTC when the price goes up to be a decently sound approach; however, I figured that I had needed to get to a high enough level of BTC accumulation before I felt comfortable enough structuring and starting any kind of selling plan... furthermore, BTC prices did not go up very much during that whole period of 2014 and 2015 while I was engaged in mostly accumulating, in order that I would feel comfortable at shaving off some profits if the price were to go up.. I also had not really structured what my sell plan would be because I thought that I needed to get my whole BTC portfolio into profits before I could start to sell any; however, I also tweaked my thinking regarding that and also came up with some selling plans.  

In essence, I tweaked and theorized my plans for how to sell in mid-2015.  I figured out what amounts that I was authorizing myself to sell and to increase such authorizations in the event that the BTC price went above my overall BTC costs, and then began to employ my plan and to tweak it ever since I started to employ it in late 2015.  I largely consider the carrying out of my plan to NOT require too much thinking, so in essence, I was and have been like a glorified bot, who sells in the area of 1% for every 10% that the BTC price goes up and then uses those proceeds to buy back or to structure my buy backs.  Sometimes, I will tweak my system a bit here and there because I will buy in intervals and incrementally that do not fall on any precise lines, but I consider that part of my goal has been to widen and widen my order intervals (both selling and buy back and the spread between the buy and sell in order to make it harder and harder to trigger my orders) in order to NOT have my orders triggered on smaller price movements and therefore I don't have to be setting my buy and sell orders as frequently.   When I started the plan the orders were set pretty damned tight, so they were being triggered all of the damned time.

Actually in the price run up to $19,666, I had sold quite a bit of BTC all the way up, and I believe that my fiat to BTC ratio had not gotten much if at all above 12% fiat to 88% BTC, and also I recall that I was already buying back BTC in the supra $19k area.. I recall that on some exchanges my BTC sell orders had gotten to a bit above $20k, so the proceeds from those sales were used to buy back BTC in the supra $19k range.  

Probably this time around, if we were to have a double top at $20k-ish, which would be highly unlikely in my thinking, I surely would not expect my BTC buy back intervals to be as tight as they were the first time around, yet I do not have the specific increments set or planned out too much beyond merely having some of the broader dynamics of my expected holdings to be outlined.  

Furthermore, there is a similar dynamic in my theoretical outline of a plan all the way up, including if the BTC price goes past $100k. My spreads get BIGGER and BIGGER, but I still do not plan to sell much beyond 1% for every 10% price rise, if we end up going there.  But, some of the devil of the details is to see the extent to which the theory will play out in practice, which was part of my learning from my experiences in the last price run up to $19,666... because in the last run up to $19,666, I purposefully changed what I thought was going to be my initial plan, which was I ended up selling less BTC than I had initially planned, and I did that on purpose.  In essence, I ended up just sticking with my system of selling 1% for every 10% rise, and I considered that to generate plenty of cash, rather than selling larger amounts of my BTC which had been part of my earlier renditions of projections.

This time, around, I don't really care, and I am fine with just continuing to follow my system that only sells small amounts on the way up and also buys back on the way down in intervals that are reasonable for me, and the tweaking this time around is to spread the intervals even more than they had been the first time around, but otherwise I am largely keeping with my system because I like it..

So, yeah a week or two ago, in our run up to a bit above $11k, I made several sales on the way up, and bought back at various points between about $10k and $9,400, and in this last run up to nearly $11k, I had a few BTC sell orders trigger, so the more that triggered, the higher my buy back points are.  I have sell orders on different exchanges so some of them triggered and some of them did not, but so far in this particular most recent correction, from today, NONE of my BTC buy back orders have triggered yet, and most of them are set for a little bit below $10k.  

In my earlier days, I would have had both my BTC buy orders and my BTC sell orders more tightly structured; however, these days I am more happy with larger intervals and my goal and recent practice has been to increase and increase and increase the integers in which such orders are triggered.

Another way of conceptualizing my strategy towards my BTC holdings has been to attempt to create my BTC buy/sell orders in such a way that I am largely NOT too much attached to price direction.. neither psychologically nor financially.  

Of course, I profit more from upwards BTC price movements, but it is also in my thinking that inevitably in the longer term BTC's price is much more likely to go up than it is to go down, but in the meantime, I am profiting from volatility in such a way that it causes me to become less and less concerned about BTC's price going down.  

Also, I have a plan that is projected into the future of starting to liquidate 1% of the value of my BTC stash per quarter, so long as the BTC price is not below $5k, and I am thinking that I will start to employ that particular plan in a few years, and I think that there are real decent chances that the BTC price is not going to go below $5k in the coming years or to interfere with my tentative liquidation plan, and if BTC's price does go below $5k, then I will just plan to hold off on cashing out my 1% during any such quarters that the BTC price does go below $5k, if such periods of low BTC price performance were to come, once I start my liquidation plan.

I think I'll need a TLDR here JJG. Smiley

Is it thursday yet?
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September 08, 2019, 12:20:30 AM

John Mcafee is in hospital.

Choked on his own dick?

 Naw. It's just that he hasn't been in the limelight most of this summer so he had to do something to get another 15 minutes.  Probably something cosmetic.

He was hiding out in the north of Iceland until the last week in August, so I have been reliably informed...
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September 08, 2019, 12:21:23 AM
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jeebus, this next boom is going to be...um...big

I'm feeling kind of giddy, but also just a tad sick, I might need one of those NASA logo barf bags.
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September 08, 2019, 12:31:39 AM
Last edit: September 08, 2019, 12:42:31 AM by Dabs
Merited by vapourminer (1), Icygreen (1), SuperTA (1)

.. however, part of the problem is then attempting to figure out where I would like to put such extra cashing out value... There will be a bit of a dilemma for me, that it would be better for me to attempt to resolve ahead of time, rather than trying to figure out that channeling of funds issue during another exponential BTC price rise, if that were to come again.    

Help others ... give them both the advice of your more than 30 years experience as well as a little start ... your prodigy just might be the next Warren Buffet.

But that is exactly what JJG does. Be could blooded, not frozen, not boiling and thread lightely so no bull or whale or bear hears your steps... .  Cheesy Some dislike JJG long discours, but mostly he is saying interesting things. And just as everyone of us he also sometimes has a grumpy day... .  Wink Cheesy

I meant something more substantial than just ... more than words ... There are people out there who are less fortunate than others, who don't have a roof over their heads, who don't know where to get their next meal, but could, one day pay it forward if only given the chance.

The younger generations are always the future.

He does say the right things particularly about traditional investing because those things do have 30 to 50 year histories. The stock market as we know it has been around for at least a hundred years, and before that ownership of corporations or large entities have existed for hundreds of years before that.

Trades were made on paper, on the "trade floor" ... eventually running on sophisticated software on mainframes and computers.

In all that time, or at least the most recent 50 years, the stock market of the entire world has been going up relentlessly, because all corporations exist to make profits, and those that remain on the major indexes, like the DOW JONES or the S&P500 ... they are "self-cleaning" ... Amazon and Microsoft were not in any of them 20 years ago. Today they are.

Just like, bitcoin did not exist 10 years ago. Now it's 200 billion total market capitalization with an absent founder, who hasn't touched any of the mined coins, coins mined because no one else would at the time, and that continues to evolve. It has a life of it's own, aided by the tens of thousands of full nodes and hundreds of countries around the world, and the millions of miners and 100 exahashes of computations per second, with a conglomerate of non-related and often competitive exchanges that provide the most liquid asset class across international borders, that now even world leaders pay attention this whole bitcoin thing.

Nothing else comes close.

The institutions are coming.
The bulls are coming.

Some of us won't be able to ride the wave (I am thinking I am one of them) because they've got nothing else and lost it all or are even negative.
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September 08, 2019, 01:32:48 AM

Roger Waters?

Was my thought as well.

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September 08, 2019, 01:45:24 AM

Hearing talk of putting mesh network antennas in phones next, as it's hardly against manufacturer's interests any more.
Which is nice.

Are you hip to David Rowe's work?



i started scrolling through that and drool started coming out.
I now feel like I have the IQ of a potato. Cheesy


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He did the mesh potato for village telco

The maths are beyond me, but fascinating work.

This link was easier. Smiley
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September 08, 2019, 02:00:39 AM

.. however, part of the problem is then attempting to figure out where I would like to put such extra cashing out value... There will be a bit of a dilemma for me, that it would be better for me to attempt to resolve ahead of time, rather than trying to figure out that channeling of funds issue during another exponential BTC price rise, if that were to come again.   

Help others ... give them both the advice of your more than 30 years experience as well as a little start ... your prodigy just might be the next Warren Buffet.

But that is exactly what JJG does. Be could blooded, not frozen, not boiling and thread lightely so no bull or whale or bear hears your steps... .  Cheesy Some dislike JJG long discours, but mostly he is saying interesting things. And just as everyone of us he also sometimes has a grumpy day... .  Wink Cheesy

I meant something more substantial than just ... more than words ... There are people out there who are less fortunate than others, who don't have a roof over their heads, who don't know where to get their next meal, but could, one day pay it forward if only given the chance.

The younger generations are always the future.

He does say the right things particularly about traditional investing because those things do have 30 to 50 year histories. The stock market as we know it has been around for at least a hundred years, and before that ownership of corporations or large entities have existed for hundreds of years before that.

Trades were made on paper, on the "trade floor" ... eventually running on sophisticated software on mainframes and computers.

In all that time, or at least the most recent 50 years, the stock market of the entire world has been going up relentlessly, because all corporations exist to make profits, and those that remain on the major indexes, like the DOW JONES or the S&P500 ... they are "self-cleaning" ... Amazon and Microsoft were not in any of them 20 years ago. Today they are.

Just like, bitcoin did not exist 10 years ago. Now it's 200 billion total market capitalization with an absent founder, who hasn't touched any of the mined coins, coins mined because no one else would at the time, and that continues to evolve. It has a life of it's own, aided by the tens of thousands of full nodes and hundreds of countries around the world, and the millions of miners and 100 exahashes of computations per second, with a conglomerate of non-related and often competitive exchanges that provide the most liquid asset class across international borders, that now even world leaders pay attention this whole bitcoin thing.

Nothing else comes close.

The institutions are coming.
The bulls are coming.

Some of us won't be able to ride the wave (I am thinking I am one of them) because they've got nothing else and lost it all or are even negative.

Is this your best JJG? Grin
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September 08, 2019, 03:09:14 AM

I did not say the protocol could not be changed. I am pointing out Krubster's rather daft implication that the Satoshi-CSW question has anything whatsoever to do with the fact that SegWit is the alteration.
Sir,

I have always respected you. Not for your believes, but for being a gentleman and keeping a civilized tone despite all the (unfair?) bashing you receive.

Thank you for that. I respect you as well.

Your insinuation that the Craig-Satoshi conundrum has anything to do with SegWit being an alteration to the Bitcoin protocol, however, remains daft. Granted, it was likely a mere rhetorical talking point. But if so, why stoop to that level of inanity?

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You're very intelligent, I give you that. I do however don't agree with you. For me, segwit is bitcoin, anything else is an altcoin.

Hmm. SegWit _is_ Bitcoin? Like, if one does not employ SegWit, then one is using something other than Bitcoin? That is certainly not the bill of goods we were sold at inception. Nor at the activation of SegWit.

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Just because segwit wasn't mentioned in the whitepaper some 10 years ago, doesn't mean it can't be bitcoin.

Debatable. Though I can acknowledge that such a position has some shred of rationality to it.

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Things evole. Technology improve. Just as bitcoin has improved. Segwit is a part of that improvement.

Again, 'improved' is debatable.
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September 08, 2019, 03:16:52 AM

How could evidence of personal identity have anything whatsoever to do with evidence of protocol change?

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I'm not sure if you're trolling or trying to be serious.

Back at ya.

See any evidence of SegWit in the white paper? No?

Explicitly in front of your face. Willful dereliction of truthiness.

SegWit was indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol. Undeniably. There is really no way to argue otherwise.

I am pretty confident the white paper doesn’t say anything about Turing completeness, legally enforceable smart contracts, token protocols,  large data storage capability and all the other shit in Bitcoin SV marketing

Yet interestingly, all fully supported in the 0.1 version of the Bitcoin protocol. You know, before the Cripple Rangers took control of the codebase. SegWit, on the other hand...

Funny, eh?

So what's the point you are trying to make?
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September 08, 2019, 03:43:53 AM
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How could evidence of personal identity have anything whatsoever to do with evidence of protocol change?

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I'm not sure if you're trolling or trying to be serious.

Back at ya.

See any evidence of SegWit in the white paper? No?

Explicitly in front of your face. Willful dereliction of truthiness.

SegWit was indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol. Undeniably. There is really no way to argue otherwise.

I am pretty confident the white paper doesn’t say anything about Turing completeness, legally enforceable smart contracts, token protocols,  large data storage capability and all the other shit in Bitcoin SV marketing

Yet interestingly, all fully supported in the 0.1 version of the Bitcoin protocol.

By golly, sometimes you almost sound like you wrote it (or was involved at an early stage)...since everything afterwards was "crap".
If you did-much respect. Respect even if you did not and just being a bit cranky about later comers like PW re-writing/modifying a "perfect" code.
Does "perfect" code even exist?
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September 08, 2019, 04:04:26 AM

I think, in the spirit of DCA when cashing out, the prudent thing is to stick to a fixed schedule.

If it's every quarter, pick a date and use that all the time.
If it's every month, pick a date and use that all the time.
If it's a particular weekday of the month, use that all the time. Like every third Tuesday of the month. (Some people do not like to withdraw on a Monday, in this case Tuesday works fine.)

Don't try to time the market. The sage old advice is time in the market.

*edit* Out for the night, going to try to watch a movie even as I'm struggling ... Always keep a smile on your face no matter how much you don't have. Smiley

I consider cashing out to be based on somewhat differing principles, as compared with the DCA that is employed for buying and accumulating BTC.

One of the strong rationales that DCA is such a sound procedure for investing long term into any asset, including BTC, is because it can redirect people away from second guessing and just investing.. to create a budget for themselves and then just to take from that budget to buy their asset, in this case BTC, rather than so many fucking people don't act at all, and DCA creates a tool enabling better abilities to direct attention and therefore to act rather than never having enough money because of x, y or z excuses.

The same obstacles are usually NOT present once a person has reached investment goals and has actually followed DCA principles for years and years and years, presumably.   Therefore, it is not necessarily profitable or even necessary to employ the same DCA principles for when the time or circumstances come for the investor to begin to cash out.. which can be a variety of circumstances that also might vary based on reason for getting out or how much profit has been made, including that it could be better to just get the fuck out, all at once. 

Surely if such reasons are because of old age, or if the desire is to diversify into a different asset, then those could be different motives, or to buy a plot of land in Oregon.

Accordingly, depending on the goal, then the cashing out method should be tailored towards best meeting the goal.   

A kind of DCA withdraw could be used in the event that a person is retiring and merely wanting to use the investment as a kind of passive income, yet I think that such structuring would NOT be so common and could be too rigid, even though it sounds good in theory, such method might NOT be practical if there is a target purchase.  Of course, I am not going to argue about a certain amount of incrementalism, but it seems to me that cashing out is way less of a problem than figuring out ways to get in, which is a principle reason for DCA upon getting a stake into an asset, such as bitcoin.

I think that a raking of profits based on price moves makes more sense, but surely, if you have a timeline to withdraw it all  then staggering the sells might work in those kinds of circumstances, and even a combination of approaches might be practical to tailor such sells and maybe even to attempt to make them somewhat more profitable, when possible by creating flexible selling price goals..
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