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Question: When ATH?
Nov. 2020 - 47 (36.2%)
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Mar. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
After Mar. 2021 - 16 (12.3%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 24683018 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (153 posts by 40 users deleted.)
SuperTA
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September 07, 2019, 12:25:26 AM
Merited by Dabs (3)



Btc/Usd

For the short term i'm watching the yellow EMA line, which currently acts as a support on the 4h chart. The 4h candle closed above it. Currently the yellow line is around 10.270 Usd. If it stays above it will be bullish. If not we will find other support.


You sound undeniably correct.

BTC's price is going to go down until it stops going down, and if it does not stop going down where it should stop, then BTC's price is going to go down more.

I have learned a lot about bitcoin and about myself from such observations.    Wink  The chart helps to make that point, too.. Comes off as more professional.  Wink

I don't know about you but i buy on the support bounce. So i bought some back. If it reaches my target between 10.800 and 11.000 i sold 3 times already there. Yes it goes up and down but i tell where is the support (buy) and where resistance (sell). If it goes bellow support it means sell. (well i trade only 20% of my holdings, i never sell all.) Trader has to be prepared for both ways.
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September 07, 2019, 12:29:50 AM
Last edit: September 07, 2019, 01:31:48 AM by d_eddie
Merited by JayJuanGee (2)

Theymos said it's determined univocally from the user's data at signup, but the computation is a bit convoluted. So, reverse engineering it is unpractical, especially since it would require some corpus of data (user info/legend threshold activity for a sizable number of legendary members), but whoever can read the code knows how it actually works.

In my understanding. this implies that no pseudo-random generator is involved.

"determined from user's data at signup"  That seems pretty random, unless it means that we have a quota system?

Subsequent behavior seems much more important than whatever was the state of the member's data at sign up...

But, hey, maybe I am a skeptic?.....
Deterministic, as in "775 + (ASCII checksum of the user's email address mod (1031-775))", or some similar concoction, which is random only for those who don't know the algorithm working behind the scenes. As in Arthur C Clarke's statement about technology, which is indistinguishable from magic if advanced enough.

It has been done this way to avoid loading the system too much: no need to scan the user's historical data at regular intervals. This is from the horse's mouth - a horse called theymos, though I don't have the original post handy.

Activity points are 1 per week active posting?

That would mean you have been here 18years  Wink

It just feels that way

Hey... I smell a scam.

Let me get this straight.  You are claiming to have been involved in bitcoin for 18 years.

I have my doubts... call me Tomas.
Hi Tomas, I think Hairy's statement is qualitative - not quantitative. As in, "It feels like a hundred years" - only it's 18.

EDIT - changed 750 to 775 in the mockup formula after seeing Dabs's exact quote from meta.
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September 07, 2019, 12:31:41 AM
Merited by Dabs (3)

Observing.....................to little, to low prices......

Cumming Bull Observing $10,313.90

Mooooo...


That must be a cow who was born in the wrong body.
She's needing a strap-on badly. Who knows why I have a hunch she'd like the attachment to be green.

It's this modern gender thing, you know. See what happens, the world is rotting. In my day, good ol' times, blahblahblah.
Arriemoller
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September 07, 2019, 12:32:35 AM
Merited by Dabs (3)

It's been like that since 1952 regardless of the different countries various and changing affiliations and memberships, and long before any single market.
The point is that it is neither unheard of nor hard to keep an open border. All you need is a will to do so.

Today's world is not the same. And you're talking about countries with a similar culture, not trying to compete with each other.

The UK wants to leave the EU as it feels special, and wants to become some kind of Ayn Randian utopia where anything goes.

Because Eire and Northern Ireland is so different in culture.

http://theconversation.com/irish-border-after-brexit-an-expert-on-norway-sweden-explains-how-to-keep-things-smooth-88749

EDIT: link
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September 07, 2019, 01:13:33 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

https://twitter.com/BitcoinEcon/status/1169986056734859264/photo/1

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September 07, 2019, 01:18:29 AM
Merited by SuperTA (1)

The ranking system up to Hero is fixed. It's the jump from Hero to Legendary that has some form of randomness to it, determined by data points from account creation. Nothing too fancy, but it's probably a few details less than 256 bits worth, then hashed by something like SHA256 or SHA512, modulo something between 1000 to 2000. I forget the exact numbers, but basically once someone has 1000 activity points (and also 1000 merits), then it's just a matter of time.

It's probably in some ranking thread in meta.

A post a day, is all you need to consistently add activity for every 2 weeks.
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September 07, 2019, 01:23:39 AM

Aiiiiiiggg

those 2023 $30K lows look terrifying
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September 07, 2019, 01:26:08 AM

Quote
Hero Member: 480 activity
Legendary: Somewhere between 775 and 1030 activity

1.5 years to Hero. 2 years to Legendary.
Negotiation
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September 07, 2019, 03:50:03 AM

@hcburger1

Coincidentally and independently, an almost identical analysis with power-law ranges for #bitcoin price predictions has been published two days before my article!
Very similar methods, almost identical results!


Source: https://twitter.com/hcburger1/status/1169923209711542273
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September 07, 2019, 04:31:40 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Arriemoller (1), SuperTA (1)

Observing.....................to little, to low prices......

Cumming Bull Observing $10,313.90

Mooooo...


Bad here @Icygreen Bhai milk is out this bat BTC wrong guy here  Grin

Quote
redacted for lack of style
Careful there Negotiator,  this is also a gentleman's club. You wouldn't want to land on everyone's ignore list and get red trust in the same week would you?
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September 07, 2019, 04:34:48 AM

Good morning WO!
Observing @ $10,340
Blood bath for altcoins 🤪
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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September 07, 2019, 04:34:52 AM
Merited by SuperTA (1)



Btc/Usd

For the short term i'm watching the yellow EMA line, which currently acts as a support on the 4h chart. The 4h candle closed above it. Currently the yellow line is around 10.270 Usd. If it stays above it will be bullish. If not we will find other support.


You sound undeniably correct.

BTC's price is going to go down until it stops going down, and if it does not stop going down where it should stop, then BTC's price is going to go down more.

I have learned a lot about bitcoin and about myself from such observations.    Wink  The chart helps to make that point, too.. Comes off as more professional.  Wink

I don't know about you but i buy on the support bounce. So i bought some back. If it reaches my target between 10.800 and 11.000 i sold 3 times already there. Yes it goes up and down but i tell where is the support (buy) and where resistance (sell). If it goes bellow support it means sell. (well i trade only 20% of my holdings, i never sell all.) Trader has to be prepared for both ways.

I don't really classify myself as a trader, even though in about late 2015, I began to sell small amounts of BTC on the way up in order to help to prepare for any further price drops, if they were to occur, and to take advantage of seemingly inevitable BTC price volatility. Between late 2013 and late 2015, I had considered myself as ONLY a BTC accumulator, so during that whole time, I had a budget and various targets to buy BTC in a kind of aggressive way to reach my targets, which largely took me about a year to get to decent comfort levels in terms of reaching my targets, but I still continued to dollar cost average buy BTC in 2015 and if I ever spent any BTC during that period I would replace such sold BTC within a day or two.

I think that I had considered buying BTC when the price goes down and selling BTC when the price goes up to be a decently sound approach; however, I figured that I had needed to get to a high enough level of BTC accumulation before I felt comfortable enough structuring and starting any kind of selling plan... furthermore, BTC prices did not go up very much during that whole period of 2014 and 2015 while I was engaged in mostly accumulating, in order that I would feel comfortable at shaving off some profits if the price were to go up.. I also had not really structured what my sell plan would be because I thought that I needed to get my whole BTC portfolio into profits before I could start to sell any; however, I also tweaked my thinking regarding that and also came up with some selling plans.  

In essence, I tweaked and theorized my plans for how to sell in mid-2015.  I figured out what amounts that I was authorizing myself to sell and to increase such authorizations in the event that the BTC price went above my overall BTC costs, and then began to employ my plan and to tweak it ever since I started to employ it in late 2015.  I largely consider the carrying out of my plan to NOT require too much thinking, so in essence, I was and have been like a glorified bot, who sells in the area of 1% for every 10% that the BTC price goes up and then uses those proceeds to buy back or to structure my buy backs.  Sometimes, I will tweak my system a bit here and there because I will buy in intervals and incrementally that do not fall on any precise lines, but I consider that part of my goal has been to widen and widen my order intervals (both selling and buy back and the spread between the buy and sell in order to make it harder and harder to trigger my orders) in order to NOT have my orders triggered on smaller price movements and therefore I don't have to be setting my buy and sell orders as frequently.   When I started the plan the orders were set pretty damned tight, so they were being triggered all of the damned time.

Actually in the price run up to $19,666, I had sold quite a bit of BTC all the way up, and I believe that my fiat to BTC ratio had not gotten much if at all above 12% fiat to 88% BTC, and also I recall that I was already buying back BTC in the supra $19k area.. I recall that on some exchanges my BTC sell orders had gotten to a bit above $20k, so the proceeds from those sales were used to buy back BTC in the supra $19k range.  

Probably this time around, if we were to have a double top at $20k-ish, which would be highly unlikely in my thinking, I surely would not expect my BTC buy back intervals to be as tight as they were the first time around, yet I do not have the specific increments set or planned out too much beyond merely having some of the broader dynamics of my expected holdings to be outlined.  

Furthermore, there is a similar dynamic in my theoretical outline of a plan all the way up, including if the BTC price goes past $100k. My spreads get BIGGER and BIGGER, but I still do not plan to sell much beyond 1% for every 10% price rise, if we end up going there.  But, some of the devil of the details is to see the extent to which the theory will play out in practice, which was part of my learning from my experiences in the last price run up to $19,666... because in the last run up to $19,666, I purposefully changed what I thought was going to be my initial plan, which was I ended up selling less BTC than I had initially planned, and I did that on purpose.  In essence, I ended up just sticking with my system of selling 1% for every 10% rise, and I considered that to generate plenty of cash, rather than selling larger amounts of my BTC which had been part of my earlier renditions of projections.

This time, around, I don't really care, and I am fine with just continuing to follow my system that only sells small amounts on the way up and also buys back on the way down in intervals that are reasonable for me, and the tweaking this time around is to spread the intervals even more than they had been the first time around, but otherwise I am largely keeping with my system because I like it..

So, yeah a week or two ago, in our run up to a bit above $11k, I made several sales on the way up, and bought back at various points between about $10k and $9,400, and in this last run up to nearly $11k, I had a few BTC sell orders trigger, so the more that triggered, the higher my buy back points are.  I have sell orders on different exchanges so some of them triggered and some of them did not, but so far in this particular most recent correction, from today, NONE of my BTC buy back orders have triggered yet, and most of them are set for a little bit below $10k.  

In my earlier days, I would have had both my BTC buy orders and my BTC sell orders more tightly structured; however, these days I am more happy with larger intervals and my goal and recent practice has been to increase and increase and increase the integers in which such orders are triggered.

Another way of conceptualizing my strategy towards my BTC holdings has been to attempt to create my BTC buy/sell orders in such a way that I am largely NOT too much attached to price direction.. neither psychologically nor financially.  

Of course, I profit more from upwards BTC price movements, but it is also in my thinking that inevitably in the longer term BTC's price is much more likely to go up than it is to go down, but in the meantime, I am profiting from volatility in such a way that it causes me to become less and less concerned about BTC's price going down.  

Also, I have a plan that is projected into the future of starting to liquidate 1% of the value of my BTC stash per quarter, so long as the BTC price is not below $5k, and I am thinking that I will start to employ that particular plan in a few years, and I think that there are real decent chances that the BTC price is not going to go below $5k in the coming years or to interfere with my tentative liquidation plan, and if BTC's price does go below $5k, then I will just plan to hold off on cashing out my 1% during any such quarters that the BTC price does go below $5k, if such periods of low BTC price performance were to come, once I start my liquidation plan.
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September 07, 2019, 04:39:18 AM


Not cool bro, we have a mixed bag of posters here from young to old. Every age group loves and enjoy nudity here, but there is a limit to everything. Please respect that boundary and don't turn this thread into a porn site.

Some might be okay with this, but many will not because you are a new poster. You already got a red tag for BCH's post which I don't agree, but you are not helping your case either.

PS : Not bashing you just letting you know.
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September 07, 2019, 04:57:02 AM


Not cool bro, we have a mixed bag of posters here from young to old. Every age group loves and enjoy nudity here, but there is a limit to everything. Please respect that boundary and don't turn this thread into a porn site.

Some might be okay with this, but many will not because you are a new poster. You already got a red tag for BCH's post which I don't agree, but you are not helping your case either.

PS : Not bashing you just letting you know.


Hmmm, seems like there are quite a few posters here that treat this thread like a porn site.   Anyway I've seen far worse from cows as they are overall pretty stupid.  Anyone that is sexually stimulated by pictures of cows has a whole different issue.   Can we get back to Bitcoin now or has that been banned on this thread?
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September 07, 2019, 05:04:35 AM
Last edit: September 12, 2019, 02:19:15 PM by VB1001

https://twitter.com/SatoshiClan/status/1168028726442905601


Above +10,900 we would be fine, then go to 11,600 and see what happens.


Good morning, WO,s

I couldn't stand 10,900, load the fuel tanks and go back up.

Take advantage of the dip and hodl.

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September 07, 2019, 05:24:56 AM

@JayJuanGee
It sounds like a great plan. But if i was you i don't think i would trade much. I'm almost forced to trade because my position isn't that great.  I'm a late comer. So i try to gather peanuts here and there from my trades. I wouldn't worry in your position at all. You'll probably be a millionaire. All you have to do is wait enough time. That's all.  Smiley
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September 07, 2019, 05:41:30 AM


Not cool bro, we have a mixed bag of posters here from young to old. Every age group loves and enjoy nudity here, but there is a limit to everything. Please respect that boundary and don't turn this thread into a porn site.

Some might be okay with this, but many will not because you are a new poster. You already got a red tag for BCH's post which I don't agree, but you are not helping your case either.

PS : Not bashing you just letting you know.


Ah... Lauda still abusing the Trust system I see.
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September 07, 2019, 05:45:31 AM

I expect/hope 12K to be broken next week.

No.

11k is too hard to break.

We got too close and look what happened.
Ohh no again bought at the wrong time it seems.Hopefully there won't be too much dump from 10K region.

God no more four digit figures. Lips sealed


Surely we are getting within striking distance of 4 digits, but is this merely a fake out?     I would not proclaim to know, even though the BAKKT seems to be bullish in terms of what would seem to need to be extra demands on actual BTC supply - plus of course, another route for institutional money to more easily and justifiably get a bit of BTC stake.
Thank God the price seems to be stable at $10300 after that sudden dump.Where we are heading now?

Further price fall in this weekend or this is going to be bullish again?
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September 07, 2019, 05:48:57 AM

I expect/hope 12K to be broken next week.

No.

11k is too hard to break.

We got too close and look what happened.
Ohh no again bought at the wrong time it seems.Hopefully there won't be too much dump from 10K region.

God no more four digit figures. Lips sealed


Surely we are getting within striking distance of 4 digits, but is this merely a fake out?     I would not proclaim to know, even though the BAKKT seems to be bullish in terms of what would seem to need to be extra demands on actual BTC supply - plus of course, another route for institutional money to more easily and justifiably get a bit of BTC stake.
Thank God the price seems to be stable at $10300 after that sudden dump.Where we are heading now?

Further price fall in this weekend or this is going to be bullish again?

We are stuck in a band between 9,300 and 11,300. It’s a bit irrelevant where it goes in that band it’ll bounce all over the place. What’s important is whether it breaks up or down.

80% chance we will eventually break upwards.
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September 07, 2019, 05:55:47 AM

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/biological-clock-ageing-turn-back-reverse-study-new-a9094261.html

Science is just scratching the surface on the inevitable defeat of father time. Immortal Bitcoiners will transcend the human aging process and hodl forever as nocoiners and shitcoiners wither away into dust due to lack of funds.

 
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