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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25497809 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Toxic2040
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September 07, 2019, 05:04:42 PM

I think, in the spirit of DCA when cashing out, the prudent thing is to stick to a fixed schedule.

If it's every quarter, pick a date and use that all the time.
If it's every month, pick a date and use that all the time.
If it's a particular weekday of the month, use that all the time. Like every third Tuesday of the month. (Some people do not like to withdraw on a Monday, in this case Tuesday works fine.)

Don't try to time the market. The sage old advice is time in the market.

*edit* Out for the night, going to try to watch a movie even as I'm struggling ... Always keep a smile on your face no matter how much you don't have. Smiley

+2 WOsMerit's
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September 07, 2019, 05:04:57 PM

Humor from reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/d0seuh/gift_to_wife/

Will this mark the end of alt winter? Naaaah.
Last of the V8s
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September 07, 2019, 05:05:05 PM

Hearing talk of putting mesh network antennas in phones next, as it's hardly against manufacturer's interests any more.
Which is nice.
Last of the V8s
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September 07, 2019, 05:08:37 PM

https://medium.com/@nic__carter/a-most-peaceful-revolution-8b63b64c203e
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And it is a rebellion, make no mistake. Cryptocurrency, despite the earnest protests of some of its lily-livered adherents, remains manifestly independent and ultimately hostile to the State. It cannot be regulated, captured, or rendered compliant.
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September 07, 2019, 05:09:57 PM

CMC BTC Dominance: 70.4%

10,555 keep it up BTCitcoin.
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September 07, 2019, 05:16:27 PM

Humor from reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/d0seuh/gift_to_wife/

Will this mark the end of alt winter? Naaaah.
Reddit is blocked here in Indonesia. I know, VPN and all that. But I cant be bothered for a holiday. China lite?
JayJuanGee
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September 07, 2019, 05:16:55 PM



Btc/Usd

For the short term i'm watching the yellow EMA line, which currently acts as a support on the 4h chart. The 4h candle closed above it. Currently the yellow line is around 10.270 Usd. If it stays above it will be bullish. If not we will find other support.


You sound undeniably correct.

BTC's price is going to go down until it stops going down, and if it does not stop going down where it should stop, then BTC's price is going to go down more.

I have learned a lot about bitcoin and about myself from such observations.    Wink  The chart helps to make that point, too.. Comes off as more professional.  Wink

I don't know about you but i buy on the support bounce. So i bought some back. If it reaches my target between 10.800 and 11.000 i sold 3 times already there. Yes it goes up and down but i tell where is the support (buy) and where resistance (sell). If it goes bellow support it means sell. (well i trade only 20% of my holdings, i never sell all.) Trader has to be prepared for both ways.

...This time, around, I don't really care, and I am fine with just continuing to follow my system that only sells small amounts on the way up and also buys back on the way down in intervals that are reasonable for me, and the tweaking this time around is to spread the intervals even more than they had been the first time around, but otherwise I am largely keeping with my system because I like it..

So, yeah a week or two ago, in our run up to a bit above $11k, I made several sales on the way up, and bought back at various points between about $10k and $9,400, and in this last run up to nearly $11k, I had a few BTC sell orders trigger, so the more that triggered, the higher my buy back points are.  I have sell orders on different exchanges so some of them triggered and some of them did not, but so far in this particular most recent correction, from today, NONE of my BTC buy back orders have triggered yet, and most of them are set for a little bit below $10k.  

In my earlier days, I would have had both my BTC buy orders and my BTC sell orders more tightly structured; however, these days I am more happy with larger intervals and my goal and recent practice has been to increase and increase and increase the integers in which such orders are triggered.

Another way of conceptualizing my strategy towards my BTC holdings has been to attempt to create my BTC buy/sell orders in such a way that I am largely NOT too much attached to price direction.. neither psychologically nor financially.  

Of course, I profit more from upwards BTC price movements, but it is also in my thinking that inevitably in the longer term BTC's price is much more likely to go up than it is to go down, but in the meantime, I am profiting from volatility in such a way that it causes me to become less and less concerned about BTC's price going down.  

Also, I have a plan that is projected into the future of starting to liquidate 1% of the value of my BTC stash per quarter, so long as the BTC price is not below $5k, and I am thinking that I will start to employ that particular plan in a few years, and I think that there are real decent chances that the BTC price is not going to go below $5k in the coming years or to interfere with my tentative liquidation plan, and if BTC's price does go below $5k, then I will just plan to hold off on cashing out my 1% during any such quarters that the BTC price does go below $5k, if such periods of low BTC price performance were to come, once I start my liquidation plan.

The strategy of constantly selling and buying has one weakness: it produces LOTS of tax obligations during periods of fast btc growth.

Yes.   You are nearly 100% correct.  This is a problem in a lot of jurisdictions, and maybe part of the reason to work towards spacing out the increments more and more.  Hopefully some of these kinds of tax problems will become less burdensome in the future.... but until now, it is a burdensome problema.


Theoretically, if someone was selling extensively, then re-buying in 2017, then watching btc declining to 3k while having serious tax obligations resulting in a need to a selling of the additional chunk at a suboptimal (low) price.
Of course, this would not be the case when ample cash is available to pay the tax.
In other words, in high taxing environment, this strategy might backfire.

Those kinds of matters should be factored in, including making sure all of your tax obligations are covered with whatever strategy that you employ.  That is correct.

On the other hand, trying to sell at the top could be a difficult undertaking as well. The local top is currently projected (by various authors) to be anywhere between 30K and 400K. Tough choice.

There are NOT too many folks who recommend attempting to time the top in any kind of solid way, or even playing with large parts of your BTC value that would mean selling everything at the top.  Like I had mentioned several times earlier, in our past growth from $250-ish to $19,666, many less bullish folks had considered $1,000 to be the top, and more bullish folks had considered $3k to $5k to be the maximum top, but of course, the growth period went way the fuck beyond $3k to $5k - in the 3x to 5x arena, so yeah, people who cashed out BIG in that range might not have even been able or lucky enough to buy back at a price to even break even.. fuck!!!!!  I personally still think that incrementalism is way the fuck the best, and even with incrementalism, you are paying taxes only on your profits, and it certainly should ONLY be a fraction of your holdings, as compared with attempting to play it BIG and getting the matter wrong in a BIG way, too.

HM here favors 180K (don't know where the number came from, maybe just personal preference).

Yeah but Hairy also changes his number from time to time and also seems to both work within a range, and I even doubt that he is playing with 100% of his stash, even when he is making relatively BIG moves.  I don't know, maybe hairy can clarify a bit more in this regard.


My current feel is to allocate certain % for a sale, then sell once a personal preference is set in 1/10 fractions of the final number of btc sells. I intend to sell only up to 20% of my btc at the next ATH, knowing fully well that the rest would probably correct to 20% of the value. Why? Because I don't want to lose my position due to unforeseen price trajectory changes (like a double peak of 2013)..

To me, that seems like a totally reasonable plan, but I get criticized a whole hell of a lot for being way the fuck too conservative and also hanging onto too much of my stash during price swings, including buying back BTC too early.  Even though I don't completely agree with the various criticisms directed towards my approach, currently, I have pretty solid plans to spread out my intervals more and also NOT to buy back at such a small interval.  I think that both things are going to help me, but then again historically, I have largely been a BIG ASS HODLer, and I think that part of my reason for remaining such a BIG ASS HODLer happened been partly caused by the level of my personal profits only going into an about 20x area.. Perhaps a little bit more.  That still made me potentially rich, but then I did not really feel compelled to sell very much because my cashflow and all of that was already covered without even considering my BTC value.

 If things really go as bullish as we tentatively expect in this next time around, then my profits could get into the 100x to 200x arena, and based on decent amounts of capital.. not just high school or college level kids cashflow numbers, which might cause me to cash out a bit more, just for shits and giggles.. however, part of the problem is then attempting to figure out where I would like to put such extra cashing out value... There will be a bit of a dilemma for me, that it would be better for me to attempt to resolve ahead of time, rather than trying to figure out that channeling of funds issue during another exponential BTC price rise, if that were to come again.   
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September 07, 2019, 05:18:49 PM


TOP 100 WO MERIT SENDERS:

Code:
25.Dabs                    254
                        


I guess someone got this stats as a challenge to improve his rating: Dabs just entered a meriting spree!
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September 07, 2019, 05:22:21 PM

Dabs is on a merit spree!
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September 07, 2019, 05:29:39 PM

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper
The same evidence that CSW is satoshi?

WTF are you on about? How could evidence of personal identity have anything whatsoever to do with evidence of protocol change?

Quote
I'm not sure if you're trolling or trying to be serious.

Back at ya.

See any evidence of SegWit in the white paper? No?

Explicitly in front of your face. Willful dereliction of truthiness.

SegWit was indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol. Undeniably. There is really no way to argue otherwise.

...and why that protocol could not be changed?

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper

I did not say the protocol could not be changed. I am pointing out Krubster's rather daft implication that the Satoshi-CSW question has anything whatsoever to do with the fact that SegWit is the alteration.
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September 07, 2019, 05:36:47 PM

Dabs= gonna break Some fillippone meta stats  Shocked Grin
JayJuanGee
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September 07, 2019, 05:44:12 PM


You are here, so you are very lucky (as are we).

You just need to shift your mindset to a minimum of five years.
I am in that kind of mindset already but my strategy is to cashout 5% from the total profits for every quarter,seems like a weird strategy?

But until now I am doing good and also will invest more when have the money.

You’d be stupid to sell anything at all until 6-12 months after the halving which is still 8-9 months away.

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
Maybe you think that is stupidity but I call it as don't be too greedy. Grin

Anyway I got your point might be need some strategical time regarding the halving period.


I generally agree with LFC, but I do wonder about the range of 6-12 months after the halvening.

A person would be less stupid if at least waiting until 6 months after the halvening, but even less than that if waiting until 12 months after the halvening?

I am thinking that LFC is saying that the larger of the exponential price periods of bitcoin's growth is likely to come somewhat after the halvening, because there tends to be a bit of a denial of the actual effect of the shrinking of the supply of the new bitcoins coming out of the printing presses of the miners.  Anyhow, that peak is not exactly known, but we are going to have better chances of experiencing such peak within the 6-12 month window period than anytime before that.

Even though I agree quite a bit with LFC's hypothesis, I do have some trouble with attempting to bank too much on any such  fractal comparisons, which is largely an attempt to compare what had happened in the last two post halvening exponential growth periods and to extrapolate what is likely to happen in this post halvening period.  Even though I believe that there is a quite a bit of actual physical and material pressures on BTC.. which is upwards pressures on price due to actual restriction of BTC supply, I still have some difficulties putting too many of my eggs in such a basket, so in that regard, I do get some sense that if there is kind of outrageous exponential price rise that comes before that 6-12 month post-halvening period, then that outrageous exponential price rise could (but not necessarily will) take away some of the fuel on the actual restriction of the supply period, because in that case, if BTC's price rise had been front run in such an outrageous way, then there would not likely be enough steam to fuel another exponential price rise that happens in the 6-12 month post-halvening period that comes from actual fundamentals regarding the actual lessening of the new BTC supply.
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September 07, 2019, 05:46:51 PM



Ah... Lauda still abusing the Trust system I see.


Done it to me, also. She really is a pathetic little kitty, eh?

Lauda.....fuck off

I think you're somebody's alt account but Lauda shouldn't be leaving negative feedback for personal criticism -- neutral feedback at most. I'm leaving you a counter green rating until Lauda removes their rating.
Yes, i had high post Legendary account started from early 2013. But the last time i logged in on that account was about 2 years ago.

Lauda has been many things over the years. She sure has won the race to the bottom. The scary shit is, if she ever gets certain admin privileges again. You can expect that to be abused instantly, with very non-pathetic consequences.

Thanks for the recognition, nutildah. Good for you.

P.S. Is there a "Ive been Lauda'd" hat available!?

Haha lol, you can Ask XhomerX..... if he yes or not wanna make it is something I don’t know

Though you need Some more merit 94 and little activity before you can wear one....

I’m out of merit for the moment so sorry  Undecided
Maybe i will resurrect the old account, and get my insta 1000merit......and sacrifice this one by resurrecting all those compromising Lauda posts of vigilantism, attempted extortion, and admin failure.

Lauda.....fuck off

You surely seem to have a lot of hate built up.. and maybe even continuing to fester.  Must not be healthy, if you are an actual human.   Undecided



Could be that s/he/it is avoiding a ban, and so does not want to say.


Maybe i will resurrect the old account, and get my insta 1000merit......and sacrifice this one by resurrecting all those compromising Lauda posts of vigilantism, attempted extortion, and admin failure.

Many, many have tried, and not one has actually been successful. I don't recommend going that route.

I just know we have a similar mindset when it comes to things like BSV as I remember you from your posts in the 2 BSV threads. I think you're a good poster and happy to have you on board.

You could be correct, nutildah.  I saw a few decent posts from arewethereyet, too, but there seems to be a lot of baggage too.  Would probably be better to move on from such emotionalism, but some folks have troubles with that... which could provide some evidence that they are NOT bots.... hahahahaahaha
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September 07, 2019, 05:54:17 PM

Dabs= gonna break Some fillippone meta stats  Shocked Grin

I also made a monthly stats for you local bitcointalk community.
108 posts in August. That's 3.48 posts per day.
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September 07, 2019, 06:07:11 PM

Yo English Fans LFC & v8 ...... pray for another knock from Ben stokes or maybe some umpiring blunders Tongue. 8 wickets left and 365 runs need to win the game.

PS : Joe Root sucks....
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September 07, 2019, 06:11:43 PM

There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper
The same evidence that CSW is satoshi?
[/s]

WTF are you on about? How could evidence of personal identity have anything whatsoever to do with evidence of protocol change?

Quote
I'm not sure if you're trolling or trying to be serious.

Back at ya.

See any evidence of SegWit in the white paper? No?

Explicitly in front of your face.
Willful dereliction of truthiness.

SegWit was indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol. Undeniably. There is really no way to argue otherwise.

...and why that protocol could not be changed?

-snip-



There's a lot of evidence that Segwit is the alteration. Read the docs, the white paper

I did not say the protocol could not be changed. I am pointing out Krubster's rather daft implication that the Satoshi-CSW question has anything whatsoever to do with the fact that SegWit is the alteration.




#yadablawblaw.jpg
Krubster
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September 07, 2019, 06:23:38 PM

I did not say the protocol could not be changed. I am pointing out Krubster's rather daft implication that the Satoshi-CSW question has anything whatsoever to do with the fact that SegWit is the alteration.
Sir,

I have always respected you. Not for your believes, but for being a gentleman and keeping a civilized tone despite all the (unfair?) bashing you receive.

You're very intelligent, I give you that. I do however don't agree with you. For me, segwit is bitcoin, anything else is an altcoin.

Just because segwit wasn't mentioned in the whitepaper some 10 years ago, doesn't mean it can't be bitcoin.

Things evole. Technology improve. Just as bitcoin has improved. Segwit is a part of that improvement.
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September 07, 2019, 06:33:38 PM


You are here, so you are very lucky (as are we).

You just need to shift your mindset to a minimum of five years.
I am in that kind of mindset already but my strategy is to cashout 5% from the total profits for every quarter,seems like a weird strategy?

But until now I am doing good and also will invest more when have the money.

You’d be stupid to sell anything at all until 6-12 months after the halving which is still 8-9 months away.

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
Maybe you think that is stupidity but I call it as don't be too greedy. Grin

Anyway I got your point might be need some strategical time regarding the halving period.


I generally agree with LFC, but I do wonder about the range of 6-12 months after the halvening.

A person would be less stupid if at least waiting until 6 months after the halvening, but even less than that if waiting until 12 months after the halvening?

I am thinking that LFC is saying that the larger of the exponential price periods of bitcoin's growth is likely to come somewhat after the halvening, because there tends to be a bit of a denial of the actual effect of the shrinking of the supply of the new bitcoins coming out of the printing presses of the miners.  Anyhow, that peak is not exactly known, but we are going to have better chances of experiencing such peak within the 6-12 month window period than anytime before that.

Even though I agree quite a bit with LFC's hypothesis, I do have some trouble with attempting to bank too much on any such  fractal comparisons, which is largely an attempt to compare what had happened in the last two post halvening exponential growth periods and to extrapolate what is likely to happen in this post halvening period.  Even though I believe that there is a quite a bit of actual physical and material pressures on BTC.. which is upwards pressures on price due to actual restriction of BTC supply, I still have some difficulties putting too many of my eggs in such a basket, so in that regard, I do get some sense that if there is kind of outrageous exponential price rise that comes before that 6-12 month post-halvening period, then that outrageous exponential price rise could (but not necessarily will) take away some of the fuel on the actual restriction of the supply period, because in that case, if BTC's price rise had been front run in such an outrageous way, then there would not likely be enough steam to fuel another exponential price rise that happens in the 6-12 month post-halvening period that comes from actual fundamentals regarding the actual lessening of the new BTC supply.
It likely more than 18 months ahead to make the highest reap compared to the current price but even after that prices going to dances and the cycle reaps that is why I am not very much confused about taking very small profits in short term interval.Which help me to collect the some of capital amount which I invested in few years so the remaining only will be the capital gains.
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September 07, 2019, 07:19:02 PM
Last edit: September 07, 2019, 07:34:15 PM by SuperTA



Btc/Usd

For the short term i'm watching the yellow EMA line, which currently acts as a support on the 4h chart. The 4h candle closed above it. Currently the yellow line is around 10.270 Usd. If it stays above it will be bullish. If not we will find other support.


You sound undeniably correct.

BTC's price is going to go down until it stops going down, and if it does not stop going down where it should stop, then BTC's price is going to go down more.

I have learned a lot about bitcoin and about myself from such observations.    Wink  The chart helps to make that point, too.. Comes off as more professional.  Wink

I don't know about you but i buy on the support bounce. So i bought some back. If it reaches my target between 10.800 and 11.000 i sold 3 times already there. Yes it goes up and down but i tell where is the support (buy) and where resistance (sell). If it goes bellow support it means sell. (well i trade only 20% of my holdings, i never sell all.) Trader has to be prepared for both ways.



Bitcoin bounced nicely from our support around 10.270 Usd (the yellow line). As i said i sold 3x times between 10.800 and 11.000 major resistance area and i bought back some at this support. As long as it stays above this yellow support it's good for the short term. Specially if it stays and closes above the purple line. Currently we are sitting on that purple  line and testing it around 10.470 Usd
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September 07, 2019, 07:21:56 PM

I did not say the protocol could not be changed. I am pointing out Krubster's rather daft implication that the Satoshi-CSW question has anything whatsoever to do with the fact that SegWit is the alteration.
Sir,

I have always respected you. Not for your believes, but for being a gentleman and keeping a civilized tone despite all the (unfair?) bashing you receive.

You're very intelligent, I give you that. I do however don't agree with you. For me, segwit is bitcoin, anything else is an altcoin.

Just because segwit wasn't mentioned in the whitepaper some 10 years ago, doesn't mean it can't be bitcoin.

Things evole. Technology improve. Just as bitcoin has improved. Segwit is a part of that improvement.
If you hold a plan to build a house in your hand and deceit to throw it away to build a bridge, you will sleep under a bridge, would you have followed original plan you be sleeping in a house.

Segwit/Lightning is xrp version 2, same junk as version 1
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