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I think it is perfectly normal to have 2 plans.
We can agree to disagree, but it is possible that we are just discussing semantics rather than meaningful variance.
Of course, any plan should not be locked in and therefore we are likely going to need to tweak or even abandoned along the way, or such plan may have branches that cause divergence based on "what if" triggering events
We all know that Bitcoin will reach 100K or more.
Anyone who asserts that s/he knows the future with certainty, especially when it comes to something like bitcoin is looney.
Of course we might assign relatively high probabilities, but even then we are going to have variant predictions between people regarding how high of probabilities that they assign.
The only unknown variable now is exactly how long this will take.
Sure, time is another variable.
The historical pattern says end of 2021 or early 2022. But nobody can be sure about that. We may need another halving to occur i.e. after 2024, or even more.
I agree more likely to occur within 1 to 2 years after the halvening, but like you said, could take longer.
In that case there will be many dissapointments and missed opportunites to become rich. And man's heart can't endure forever such bad things.
To me it seems that you are setting yourself up for failure if you don't plan for outliers. Of course, there is an expectation that bitcoin is going to go up, but if it goes to zero, we should be both financially and psychologically prepared for that also. Seems to me.
Considering however, that I continue to buy in all these years, I may reach my goal in terms of fiat for prices around 50K. I don't want this to happen, and I don't think it will happen, but it is theoretically possible that we are stuck at levels 20K-50K for a prolonged period of time.
With bitcoin, you should still be able to get rich, even if the price appreciation does not end up being as great as expected. And, if you are not rich, you are at least better off for having had invested into it. Traditional investments tend to take anywhere between 7 and 15 years to double in value, so even if bitcoin ends up falling into the realm of normal, then it should not have hurt you to have tried.
Sure, for me, it is already nice to have nearly 10x in equity cushion (profits) in BTC, but there is still some need to consider bitcoin from the present, too. At the present BTC price, what do you expect in the next 7-15 years? Yes it should double, and yes it should even accomplish such doubling (or more) in a much shorter period of time, even though not guaranteed.
Let's say I have 16 BTC (they could have been much more, but in 2015 I didn't even suspect that Bitcoin price could go much higher than $200 so soon). So the 1st super duper bearish plan (based on my personal 10x profit) is:
2,00 for $36 000
2,00 for $40 000
4,35 for $44 000
4,15 for $46 000
3,50 for $48 000
Total: $700 000. If I can buy more coins before 36K, I will keep them for 100K.
And if the year is 2025 or later, I will have may be 3-4 or more coins. Considering my expenses are $5K per year and that I can build a luxury house for 200K, this amount should be enough even if I quadruple the monthly expenses. ( I am speaking for an early retirement 10 years instead of 20 from now.)
O.k., I see that you are planning to have two tracks of coins. One track of coins, you completely cash out by the time the price reaches $48k, and the second track of coins is still unknown because you are in the process of acquiring those second track of coins.
Personally, I believe that is planning to gamble too much based on too many unknowns, and in that regard, I would prefer to plan based on knowns rather than unknowns, and of course, you can have a plan to cash out all of your earlier acquired coins by $48k, if that is what floats your boat, but it seems a bit short-sighted, in my thinking, and maybe even too much gambling to play it that way.
But what I am hoping for is selling based on the follwing pattern until 2022 (plus all bitcoins bought before my 1st selling point, kept for later moons above 200K). It is a tweaked version of your plan, which you gave to mindrust some time ago. It is based on the principle 10, 20, 30, 40% sells after each 50% increase. The last sell could be distributed between 120K and 150K.
Sell Price BTC balance PfolioBeforeValue BTCSell Amt PfolioAfterValue soldValue soldTotal
$40,000 16.00000000 $640,000 0.00000000 $640,000 $0.00 $0.00
$40,000 16.00000000 $640,000 1.60000000 $576,000 $64,000 $64,000
$60,000 14.40000000 $864,000 3.20000000 $672,000 $192,000 $256,000
$90,000 11.20000000 $1,008,000 4.80000000 $576,000 $432,000 $688,000
$135,000 6.40000000 $864,000 6.40000000 $0 $864,000 $1,552,000
Pretty much, I agree with the discretion that is exercised through all of the first part, but I don't see why you would have to go balls to the wall between $120k and $150k. Yeah, you could sell some of those BTC, but do you really believe it is necessary to sell all of them? Of course, if you really believe that a blow off top has been reached in that range, then you could use some of those last coins to buy back, but still seems a bit rash to run out of coins to sell, in my thinking.
Then I can build a beach villa which I could use or lend. And one day if I am sick of it, I surely will be able to sell it 2-3 times higher, so the initial cash out at 40K-60K won't be lost.
Of course, using your money wisely, such as investment property is not a bad thing, so in that regard it might not matter what you do with your money to the extent that you have not become so filthy rich that you can start to throw money away and not think about whether it gives you further possible returns.
P.S. I know this looks like hopium especially to the daily traders, but this increase is only 10x from 14K this year. There were much bigger increases even for one year, not to mention for 3 years. The only question is when 100K, not if!
I don't think it looks like hopium, and I think that you are failing to sufficiently plan for further upside, but yeah, you could end up being correct and there is a blow off top in the range in which you cash out the remaining of your BTC so you end up being able to buy them back at a much reduced price.
Ultimately, these kinds of decisions are yours to make, and so we are going to come out with differing plans that are kind of tailored to our own financial situations, risk tolerances, timeline and views of bitcoin as compared with other asset classes.
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