Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ibian]

Oh and in regards to lethality: Calculate deaths/(deaths+cured).

Don't know why people keep using total number of infected. It makes no sense. Some of those people are going to die.

Because death occurs earlier in the disease cycle than cured state, (cured may be pronounced many weeks after the onset whereas death in a couple of weeks)
and especially at the beginning of the outbreak this figure will be weighted too far towards a high mortality rate, and equally makes no sense at this point.

You can easily see the error of using this method in the first few weeks, say 5 people died, but nobody has been declared cured, giving a 100% mortality rate.


Bear attempts look pretty futile, nobody else appears to be jumping aboard.

Again, some of the infected are going to die. And we don't know how many of them. We do know how many died and how many were cured. Convenience is no excuse for deliberately fudging the numbers. And it's not 5 people anymore.

[akhjob]

BTC now below 10k 
Good time to rebuy around 9700-9300 zone 

[cAPSLOCK]

Currently, playing 'when to buy into more BTC game'...thinking I'll wait for a 'weekend weak dump' maybe?

Those currently who know my 'track record' on timing such, be sure to adjust your purchases accordingly, so you can

'mock' my 'timing' later.

(Hey, the wrong price at the wrong time is how I roll. On the other hand, if you HODL long enough ..it does not matter)

Brad

I just picked this dip in my own version of your game.

[yslyv]

Lets crush this fucking bear over there!

[fluidjax]

Oh and in regards to lethality: Calculate deaths/(deaths+cured).

Don't know why people keep using total number of infected. It makes no sense. Some of those people are going to die.

Because death occurs earlier in the disease cycle than cured state, (cured may be pronounced many weeks after the onset whereas death in a couple of weeks)
and especially at the beginning of the outbreak this figure will be weighted too far towards a high mortality rate, and equally makes no sense at this point.

You can easily see the error of using this method in the first few weeks, say 5 people died, but nobody has been declared cured, giving a 100% mortality rate.


Bear attempts look pretty futile, nobody else appears to be jumping aboard.

Again, some of the infected are going to die. And we don't know how many of them. We do know how many died and how many were cured. Convenience is no excuse for deliberately fudging the numbers. And it's not 5 people anymore.

I don't dispute that the numbers are fudged, I'm disputing that your alternative method to calculate the mortality rate is also wrong. Even if the available figures were correct, which they are not, there is no way to calculate an accurate mortality rate.Most likely, it lies somewhere between your value and the media's  value, with such a large range it's not very helpful.

(5 was a made up figure, to illustrate the error in the methodology.)

[Ibian]

Oh and in regards to lethality: Calculate deaths/(deaths+cured).

Don't know why people keep using total number of infected. It makes no sense. Some of those people are going to die.

Because death occurs earlier in the disease cycle than cured state, (cured may be pronounced many weeks after the onset whereas death in a couple of weeks)
and especially at the beginning of the outbreak this figure will be weighted too far towards a high mortality rate, and equally makes no sense at this point.

You can easily see the error of using this method in the first few weeks, say 5 people died, but nobody has been declared cured, giving a 100% mortality rate.


Bear attempts look pretty futile, nobody else appears to be jumping aboard.

Again, some of the infected are going to die. And we don't know how many of them. We do know how many died and how many were cured. Convenience is no excuse for deliberately fudging the numbers. And it's not 5 people anymore.

I don't dispute that the numbers are fudged, I'm disputing that your alternative method to calculate the mortality rate is also wrong. Even if the available figures were correct, which they are not, there is no way to calculate an accurate mortality rate.Most likely, it lies somewhere between your value and the media's  value, with such a large range it's not very helpful.

(5 was a made up figure, to illustrate the error in the methodology.)

I don't see the problem. Infected people will either end up in the dead category or the cured category. What's missing?

[rdbase]

It seems like we just got a much-needed correction.

Now let's go above $10k again!

The actual **** just happened?

I think we need to get a new meme for the price to pump up to $10k so to stay there this time.

[jojo69]

is that really all they got?

[Torque]

Here's my thoughts on the origin of the virus.
I think it accidentally got out from the lab in Wuhan, where they were trying to make a vaccin against corona viruses.
The reason for the vaccin development is the fact that it hits Asians much harder than non Asians and therefor would make a good bio weapon to use against china.
And because of  low Chinese safety awareness they are now shooting themselves in the foot.

I think it's a deliberate bioweapon. Narcissistic communist leaders, it's the sort of thing they would do.

It just feels like something 'The Club' would do to disrupt the markets. A manufactured Black Swan "event" combined with false flag dis-information.

Hell, no one knows if any of the metrics data is even accurate. Much of it could be completely false. Just made up bullshit. Half of all these photos we seen of doctors in hazmats and patients on gurneys could be completely staged with state-sponsored "actors" just to stir up more fear.

Either that, or the western 'Club' legit released it to slow down or disrupt Chinese goods production. They don't want to have to keep buying their produced shit under the current trade agreement contracts, because the inventory is not moving in the West. Retail commerce is at a complete standstill, not only in the West but worldwide.

[jojo69]

The people who catch it first are the lucky ones. They will get the best treatment available. After a small percent of the population gets it the hospital beds and medical staff will quickly be at full capacity in every country.

Take the U.S. for example. With about 100,000 ICU beds in the whole country that means there is only about 1 ICU bed per 3300 people.

There are about 600,000 hospital beds total in the U.S., which means one bed for every 550 people, but if your condition is critical, you will need an ICU bed or most likely you will die.

Lets also remember a huge chunk of those beds already have people dying of the typical things that kill people when people arent busy dying from possible Communist Bioweapons.

As the hospitals fill up with Aids Flu patients the other sickly non coronavirus patients will inevitably catch it too and since they are already weak, they are the most likely not to make it.

TLDR

Buy and or Hodl Bitcoin. Defunding irresponsible governments is the best prevention for shitshows like we are now seeing.

they can go on over the top crime sprees while the cops and everybody else are hacking their brains out

[fluidjax]

Oh and in regards to lethality: Calculate deaths/(deaths+cured).

Don't know why people keep using total number of infected. It makes no sense. Some of those people are going to die.

Because death occurs earlier in the disease cycle than cured state, (cured may be pronounced many weeks after the onset whereas death in a couple of weeks)
and especially at the beginning of the outbreak this figure will be weighted too far towards a high mortality rate, and equally makes no sense at this point.

You can easily see the error of using this method in the first few weeks, say 5 people died, but nobody has been declared cured, giving a 100% mortality rate.


Bear attempts look pretty futile, nobody else appears to be jumping aboard.

Again, some of the infected are going to die. And we don't know how many of them. We do know how many died and how many were cured. Convenience is no excuse for deliberately fudging the numbers. And it's not 5 people anymore.

I don't dispute that the numbers are fudged, I'm disputing that your alternative method to calculate the mortality rate is also wrong. Even if the available figures were correct, which they are not, there is no way to calculate an accurate mortality rate.Most likely, it lies somewhere between your value and the media's  value, with such a large range it's not very helpful.

(5 was a made up figure, to illustrate the error in the methodology.)

I don't see the problem. Infected people will either end up in the dead category or the cured category. What's missing?

People die quicker than they are declared cured. This difference means that at any point in time the dead is known, but the number who will be cured lags by weeks, weighting the statistic towards a higher mortality rate.

[Hyperjacked]

Here's my thoughts on the origin of the virus.
I think it accidentally got out from the lab in Wuhan, where they were trying to make a vaccin against corona viruses.
The reason for the vaccin development is the fact that it hits Asians much harder than non Asians and therefor would make a good bio weapon to use against china.
And because of  low Chinese safety awareness they are now shooting themselves in the foot.

I think it's a deliberate bioweapon. Narcissistic communist leaders, it's the sort of thing they would do.

It just feels like something 'The Club' would do to disrupt the markets. A manufactured Black Swan "event" combined with false flag dis-information.

Hell, no one knows if any of the metrics data is even accurate. Much of it could be completely false. Just made up bullshit. Half of all these photos we seen of doctors in hazmats and patients on gurneys could be completely staged with state-sponsored "actors" just to stir up more fear.

Either that, or the western 'Club' legit released it to slow down or disrupt Chinese goods production. They don't want to have to keep buying their produced shit under the current trade agreement contracts, because the inventory is not moving in the West. Retail commerce is at a complete standstill, not only in the West but worldwide.

This pretty much sums it up
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5qm8PH4xAss

[AlcoHoDL]

Just the flu bruh.

https://youtu.be/oTysV3EfSyM

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Oi! Who is joining me in Liverpool match? 3 - 0?
I am having chicken wings and they are flue free I guess 😜

Obviously me

I know you are not gonna miss it. Where is the dude guy? Missed you lot a lot.
nohomo lol

Dude has a few RL issues he’s dealing with at the moment so he’s taken a little time off here. He’s OK though, healthy etc, no danger.

Good to hear that he is ok.
Get ready for the 2nd half to punish Norwich.

[jojo69]

I want to touch on supply chain disruption.  That lunar new year holiday is a real thing.  It is well known in the West that China basically shuts down for two weeks this time of year, so enterprises will have planned ahead and stocked up on critical parts ahead of time, therefore we will be somewhat insulated from supply chain shocks until (the end of the holiday + the proverbial slow boat shipping time).  It is expensive to actually shutter and restart production lines so manufacturers will first slow production to husband rare parts while allowing employees to take elective time off and performing maintenance tasks on parts of their line.

However, over the next month or so, the boats will fail to arrive and the parts will run out.


something something

profit?

[Last of the V8s]

perhaps there was just too much inventory over here and it needed running down

[P_Shep]

[Arriemoller]

I want to touch on supply chain disruption.  That lunar new year holiday is a real thing.  It is well known in the West that China basically shuts down for two weeks this time of year, so enterprises will have planned ahead and stocked up on critical parts ahead of time, therefore we will be somewhat insulated from supply chain shocks until (the end of the holiday + the proverbial slow boat shipping time).  It is expensive to actually shutter and restart production lines so manufacturers will first slow production to husband rare parts while allowing employees to take elective time off and performing maintenance tasks on parts of their line.

However, over the next month or so, the boats will fail to arrive and the parts will run out.


something something

profit?

I was gonna order some new clasps for my online shop from China, answer? no can do.
So they cant sell and /or ship and therefore have to close down the factory for the time being, and I cant sell in my online shop because I cant get any deliveries and the ships get less to ship. Where in this chain of events do you see any profit?

And also, zweiundvierzig doesn't rhyme with blue.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Ei!
Observing @ $9,903 while prying for Liverpool to score.

[jojo69]

Where in this chain of events do you see any profit?

Bitcoin is long apocalypse brother