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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26366498 times)
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JayJuanGee
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February 09, 2020, 11:32:45 PM


And Welcome Back bones261!

Just to let everyone know. I am doing great. Sorry to worry some people. I'm just for all intensive purposes a nocoiner now. I'll try to check in more often. We shall see.

Sometimes, in life, the priorities are what force us to make certain decisions, that's how it is, there is no more.

It is really difficult to say, for sure, or even to lecture someone else for taking a zero position in regards to bitcoin.

It is almost as if you have no spare income whatsoever.. or no view of the future or no ability to save.

So, maybe if you don't have any savings and only debt, then it would be better to get your debt paid off first and to establish yourself an ability to save... and if you have absolutely not enough money to put away that you can afford to not think about, then maybe you cannot be in bitcoin.. even if that is a mere $20 per month... or some low level like that.

There are usually ways that even really poor people are able to stack some investments away, and maybe the only exception would be if a person believes that he is not going to live more than a few years, so really in a liquidation phase of his life and liquidating most if not all assets.

It may be the case, but you can also have an unexpected unforeseen and you need liquidity, then you have to act, if for this you have to part with part of your investments, do it, you will have more opportunities to return to the market when your financial situation is stabilized.
If you can cover the unforeseen or economic urgency without borrowing better.

I am somewhat sympathetic to these kinds of possibilities, especially, if a person is still learning how to invest and how much to invest; however, a central strategy with investing into potentially volatile assets is NOT to invest more than you can afford to lose in order that you are never forced to cash out at a time that is NOT somewhat of your choosing.... so in that regard, it is way better to be forced to cash some out when the price is going up rather than going down or at a position in which your asset has lost money.

Of course, some emergencies are beyond expectations too, but if you are NOT overinvesting, then you should already have an emergency fund in order that you do not have to tap into your investments - unless it is at a time that is somewhat at your own choosing and the investment(s) are somewhat profitable.

This is part of the reason that it tends to take years and years and years for many people to build up their investment funds... and of course, if you only have $20 per month to invest it is going to take way the fuck longer to build up a decent amount of capital as compared to having $2k or more per month.

I am trying NOT to be overly judgmental about anyone because I know that people make mistakes and there are a decent number of folks who are in their 50s and 60s and older and have NOT really established an investment fund, even though they may have been engaged in what they considered to be investing strategies for 20 or more years of their lives.  Everyone is likely going to make some mistakes along the way, too, especially if managing their own portfolio, and I stick to my guns on the points that the more conservative strategies are going to tend to be the strongest, especially if measuring to show the building of profits and the size of the portfolio over 20-30 or more years of investing.

Maybe part of my point, too, is that there may be more abilities to make some mistakes when you are in your 20s; however, by the time, you are in your 30s you do not have as much time to be making mistakes and you have to have started to build some kind of stash that continues to build.

I had always taken at least 10% of my income and put it into investing, and I kind of hate to admit that some of my college loan money was used for investing too, even though there were some years that I did NOT really have much of an income.. and there were some years that my college loans were greater than my total assets and my investment funds, but my investment fund continued to build even though there was times that on paper my networth was negative.  So maybe taking out loans for education has to end up with a job that pays way more than the extra amounts of the loans, and I could see where some of that might go bad, but still seems that if you want to get out of the ratt race, you gotta continue to build the investment funds that would also include being covered for various emergencies that can happen (and will happen).   
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February 09, 2020, 11:35:12 PM
Last edit: February 09, 2020, 11:49:49 PM by dragonvslinux
Merited by eddie13 (1)

I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333

hodl for 300k

I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..

The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..

I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..

Nice prediction, interesting to hear you think it'll go to $300K next cycle. With most people believing that prices will only go 5-10x from ATH ($10K0-200K) until topping out, given the similarities with the recent 2012 style correction, I think we could be leading up to a much larger bubble top than 2018. I don't just mean higher, I mean more parabolic and for longer than 2017. Think 2012 leading into 2013 with a harsh "fake top" correction around $100K. Fiat collapse style parabolic, all the signs are there to take Bitcoin to an incomparable value with fiat.
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February 09, 2020, 11:37:19 PM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1), Cryptotourist (1)



Anything burning fuel produces SO2, including my truck.  

Traffic and industry about standing still in wuhan, just to remind you...
Still, these calculations are, if source parameters are verified, speculative at best.

I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333

hodl for 300k

I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..

The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..

I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..

Many of the extrapolation results of 2017's bubble top were between about $40k and$50k iirc.?
Just for comparison, if you know or remember better, please let me know.

Yes, I remember well once we hit 20k the pumpers and latecomers all started calling for 40k "soon" and possibly in just days or weeks. I think 20k came so fast that most were shocked and the euphoria was real so they just decided to come up with a new price target off the cuff and 40k was the go to target bc it was double the 20k milestone that created massive euphoria and got the attention of the world.

Miner fees became insanely expensive and the bubble bursted as newbs were shocked it cost 15 dollars to move a few hundred bucks worth of bitcoin, they just couldnt understand why the CEO of Bitcoin would raise the price of fees Roll Eyes. IMO this started the bear market. Once you reach certain bubbly heights it doesnt take much to prick it.

Hopefully scaling solutions will prevent that this time around. Hopefully.....
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February 09, 2020, 11:44:00 PM

Be ready for hordes of nocoiners flooding the gates of Bitcointalk.org when halving and ATH come.

What's the best defence against a nocoiner: burning oil, flaming arrows, a good ol' pitchfork?

(I know some nancy-boy will respond with knowledge and fine argument!)
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February 09, 2020, 11:46:18 PM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)


If you can get reinfected, would't that mean that a vaccin is impossible? I would like to get some more info on that before I believe it.

Flu vaccines never provide complete immunity against influenza viruses if I am not mistaken. You can still get infected but you'll recover far quicker compared to an unvaccinated person.

Availability of a vaccine has nothing to do with this I believe.

Quote
U.S. vaccine effectiveness by start year:[23][24]
2004   10%
2005   21%
2006   52%
2007   37%
2008   41%
2009   56%
2010   60%
2011   47%
2012   49%
2013   52%
2014   19%
2015   48%
2016   40%
2017   36%
2018   47%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine

Flu comes in thousands of strains.  

Flu vaccines are planned based on projections of what are likely to be the dominant strain(s) that year.  

Projections are based on what is happening in the other hemisphere winter and what is circulating at the time.

The better the projections, the more effective, all other things being equal.  

Sometimes the projections are good and sometimes they are bad.  Even if the vaccine is 100% correctly targeted, it is still far from 100% effective.  Vaccines are more about building herd immunity. 
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February 09, 2020, 11:47:42 PM
Merited by jojo69 (1), Icygreen (1), HairyMaclairy (1)

Gents I have some suggestions to help us get to 13k in an orderly fashion with few interuptions. Not too fast is the best way to move forward.

Refrain from trains, rockets, or Carolina till 11k.

Once 11k reached, unleash trains only.

Once 12k reached, unleash trains and rockets.

Once 13k reached, unleash TRC Trifecta of trains, rockets, and Carolina.

Trifecta should propel us to 14k and then we can dip a bit for the latecomers.


Aids-Flu memes alone should be sufficient to get us to 11k by Valentine's day.
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February 09, 2020, 11:51:27 PM

Vitalik seems to be openly supporting Bitcoin Cash; the dude must be thinking that it might somehow benefit Ethereum and damage BTC. Roll Eyes

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February 09, 2020, 11:57:01 PM

Observing new All Year Highs. Go CCP go!
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February 09, 2020, 11:57:58 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

What's the best defence against a nocoiner: burning oil, flaming arrows, a good ol' pitchfork?

(I know some nancy-boy will respond with knowledge and fine argument!)


I currently own just over 200k sats. I hope that qualifies me as not being a nocoiner. I prefer not to be impaled, burned or mutilated by wo people. Shocked
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February 09, 2020, 11:59:29 PM

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

Reward-Drop ETA date: 12 May 2020 06:07:14

92 days to go gentlemen.

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins.

It’s accelerating.  I am going to have to bend my fractal.
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February 10, 2020, 12:01:54 AM

Go go go

$10,200

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February 10, 2020, 12:05:34 AM

I used to speak to rjclarke2000 a lot when I first signed up here. I hope he’s still HODLING!

Me too.... I am pretty sure that he is a HODLer, and maybe in a similar situation to you, LFC...... even though maybe quite a bit of a smaller BTC stash.. .

He had felt that he did not quite have enough in BTC to sell during the last price rise to $20k, but I think that he got more frustrated than you, LFC, in terms of his NOT really wanting to talk or think about the BTC price falling matter... because that would just bring him further from NOT having enough to just retire...  so largely just preferred to HODL through it all, as far as I understood to be what he was doing.

It takes a quite a bit of balls just to HODL through and to try not to think about the cyclical matters too much.... although I am sure that he is peaking here and there.... and that would be really strange if someone like him were to panic sell or anything like that when he seemed to be more than willing to put another 4 years or even quite a bit more into waiting on the matter.. and just let the whole BTC price cycles play out.. while just continuing to just hold... which is likely NOT a bad philosophy, overall... I am wondering if $50k or $100k is going to be enough for him, and if we might end up going in that direction in the next couple of years, and a lot less bullish case scenario would be to add another 4 years onto that.. so instead of the end of 2021 we would be looking at the end of 2025, which just does not seem to be as likely of a scenario to play out.

Morning JJG!
Just woke up for a piss & see the price is above $10,000. Good stuff Smiley

Yeah I’d love to be able to HODL everything until after the 2024 halving but it’s just too long away.
I’ll probably have to sell half during the next peak or somewhere near to it so I can live the life I dream of.

Not all bad though, will obviously still have a fairly nice stash to HODL into the future Smiley

I think that it is quite prudent of you to project that you are likely to ONLY sell half of your BTC stash in this next anticipated exponential run, and so in that regard, you have likely come a decent way in your own perception of a prudent way forward with your BTC.

I understand that you have been buying all along, even though the vast majority of your stash was likely acquired prior to the 2017 exponential rise.. and maybe even a decent amount of that was acquired before 2016... so hell yeah, at least you have been able to largely HODL that portion of your BTC stash through 1 bubble and likely to be 2 bubbles (that is if this next 2020/21-ish bubble comes).  

Of course, we talk about hookers, lambos and blow(s), and those, of course, would be consumption goods, rather than investment goods.  If we have our bases covered on the investment goods (and even some degree of diversification of assets), then we can increase our consumption rather than investing.  I don't have any problems with that as long as there is a sufficient amount of assets that are still "working for ya" to maintain that kind of lifestyle.. depending on your age, and if you are still under 40 years old, you might have a lot of years that you need to be able to potentially make sure that your assets are able to work for you for the number of years that you are potentially going to be around.

I recall that you had mentioned expensive real estate, too, and sure some of that might be able to hold its value so it could be considered both a consumption good and an investment, so of course, each of us has to decide if some of those kinds of investments might end up tying down our capital in ways that are too much or if they have certain expenses and maintenance that really does not pay off, like buying a yacht... hahahahaha or an island?  ... and sure the consideration would be whether if that is what we really want, in terms of investment/consumption.... and if we want to acquire some assets for status, then do we have enough capital to really sustain those kinds of consumptions without overly depleting the asset or stressing ourselves out because some of the headaches that might come with the ownership of certain kinds of assets that also might require too many employees.. and be more like a job, rather than relaxing.

New AYH... by the way, as I type... just touched $10,200..... but who's keeping track?   Wink  Wink Wink

Edit: Hairy beat me regarding the $10,200..... with graphs and "innovative" "fractal bending" and all kinds of mumbo jumbo,  Angry Angry Angry
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February 10, 2020, 12:07:50 AM

Oh lookie. Another AYH... $10200 (Stamp).

Edit: Oops was it really $10200 or just $10199.99 rounded up?
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February 10, 2020, 12:10:15 AM

Oh lookie. Another AYH... $10200 (Stamp).

Been there.  Done that.   Tongue
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February 10, 2020, 12:12:56 AM
Merited by bones261 (2), jojo69 (1)

What's the best defence against a nocoiner: burning oil, flaming arrows, a good ol' pitchfork?

(I know some nancy-boy will respond with knowledge and fine argument!)


I currently own just over 200k sats. I hope that qualifies me as not being a nocoiner. I prefer not to be impaled, burned or mutilated by wo people. Shocked

That's 30% below each earthlings's average (locoiner status).
shape up to at least 300K sats...or not.
 Grin

Gents I have some suggestions to help us get to 13k in an orderly fashion with few interuptions. Not too fast is the best way to move forward.



Once 13k reached, unleash TRC Trifecta of trains, rockets, and Carolina.

Trifecta should propel us to 14k and then we can dip a bit for the latecomers.


when Kathleen's bike?
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February 10, 2020, 12:13:47 AM

Weeee

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February 10, 2020, 12:17:33 AM

Vitalik seems to be openly supporting Bitcoin Cash; the dude must be thinking that it might somehow benefit Ethereum and damage BTC. Roll Eyes



What's next?
Jihan, Vitalik and Justin Sun founding the "shitcoin alliance"?  Cool

BTC making me feel like Q3 2017  (when i started) Grin
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February 10, 2020, 12:21:37 AM

https://gnews.org/107513/

Unusual activities before the epidemic
The U.S. government will investigate the stock market manipulations took place before the Wuhan epidemic including (but not limited to):

“Exists” from Stock Exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong.
short-selling
People with knowledge of the viral attack sold a large number of stocks to American, European and Saudis investors. Many people who sold their stocks include Jiang Zhicheng (the grandson of Jiang Zeming, the former president of China), Meng Haijin (the daughter of Meng Jianzhu), and Gao Yanyan, etc.
Li Ka-shing, a pro-CCP tycoon in Hong Kong, unloaded a significant portion of his stock holding after Nov 12, a move he did not take during the Hong Kong pro-democracy protests.
Many Chinese business tycoons have been shorting stocks and selling stock holdings to foreigners while keeping their mouths shut since Nov 12, 2019.


I don't know about the veracity of Miles Guo's theories but we do know that Li Ka-Shing has been heavily involved in bitcoin in the past. If he was exiting Chinese stocks as Miles says then it is possible he was entering bitcoin/gold flight capital assets. There was a good pump in bitcoin mid-late Oct. .... hmmm was that another Li Ka-shing and co. pump?.
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February 10, 2020, 12:22:19 AM

What's the best defence against a nocoiner: burning oil, flaming arrows, a good ol' pitchfork?

(I know some nancy-boy will respond with knowledge and fine argument!)


I currently own just over 200k sats. I hope that qualifies me as not being a nocoiner. I prefer not to be impaled, burned or mutilated by wo people. Shocked

That's 30% below each earthlings's average (locoiner status).
shape up to at least 300K sats...or not.
 Grin



Oh, I just opened up electrum and discovered 100 K more sats tucked away in a native segwit address interfacing with trezor. so that brings me up to locoiner status. Hmm, maybe I have some more dust tucked away somewhere else.
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February 10, 2020, 12:27:05 AM
Merited by bones261 (2)

...that brings me up to locoiner status...

You'll always be a bro-coiner to me.
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