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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25497213 times)
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January 18, 2020, 03:57:55 PM
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Interesting discussion guys. I think indeed it takes discipline sticking to your strategy and don't frontload, even when bitcoin has a seemingly continuing upward momentum from its $3k bottom. Somehow over the years I lost being sensible when it comes to Bitcoin, while I am generally cautious buying individual stocks (VTI FTW). I admire being stubborn and sticking to the strategy.

It is a whole hell of a lot of work just to create a strategy, and many mere mortals have lots of difficulties really making an honest attempt to assess each of the relevant factors which bear repeating here:  cash flow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline, and skills (limitations) and time available to research and tweak holdings/trades.  

Those are not easy factors to figure out, even for ones self, and sometimes it can take years to just figure out the personalize parts like those above factors.

Feeling regret in retrospective to not have frontloaded makes little sense:

I don't know how you get around a "regret" inclination that almost everyone has, even when they have thoroughly thought through their plans and approach and attempted to tailorize their plans and approach to themselves.  Second-guessing is almost inevitable, even for the strongest-minded people - even if they might not want to personally explore those monday morning quarterbacking considerations.


you have a strategy and need to stick to it, perhaps it helps in case you imagine for a moment the bitcoin price went into the other direction? Especially having little 'dry powder' while bitcoin, seemingly inevitably, comes down back to earth is terrible. Bitcoin is on fire sale and you can't buy any.

For sure, that remains part of the forgotten formula when people are feeling regrets.  They see the BTC price go up 50% or 100% or 300%, and then they forget that they had NOT invested so much because they wanted to be prepared for DOWN.  They have a tendency to see ONLY what happened rather than the preparation and insurance aspects regarding why they had decided (earlier) how they had decided.

It might have turned out very well for some, but that does not prove frontloading / going all in is a wise decision.

Personally, I proclaim to have profited quite well from a kind of frontloading.  Of course, my frontloading has not gone to such extremes as "going all in", but I personally feel that there were several times that I purposefully invested quite well beyond my rational thinking about how much I should be investing, as a kind of gamble.  Yeah, that inclination towards frontloading did not feel so good or feel as if it were paying off while the BTC price was going down, but it felt a lot better when the price started to go back up.. (two years later.. or some other seemingly extreme time, later).  

I will give you a specific example:  Through most of 2014, I did not disclose to anyone that I was investing in bitcoin, and I engaged in a kind of mild frontloading of my BTC investment, and throughout the year BTC prices were going down and they seemed to be kind of plateauing in the $600 range, so when BTC prices went into the upper $300s (something like $385 in about October 2014), I pretty much began to tell a lot of people about bitcoin and my tentative theory that the bottom was in, and proclamations like that.  

I was considering putting in a portion of my 401k into BTC (but I ended up rejecting that consideration) and also, I ended up converting two of my index fund investments into bitcoin (which then constituted about an additional 10% injection of value into bitcoin).  I was pretty sure that we were god damned close to the bottom, and yeah we know what happened after that, no?  In December BTC prices dipped below $200 and even had a spike down to $150/$160 and thereafter until October 2015 the BTC price pretty much stayed in the mid $200s, and even dipped below $200 again in October 2015. Those were not times in which too many HODLers were able to retain their confidence in BTC or even to continue to buy.  I had my own issues and reservations, and I continued to frontload "a tiny bit" into bitcoin, which surely did not feel good, and it surely made my stomach feel queazy and I kind of felt like I was going to get fucked if the BTC price continued to go down and I was adding a bit more dollar value to my BTC investment while I was about 50% in the negative and I surely was not splurging beyond bare budget necessities in other matters.  I was NOT exactly eating ramen, but I was living relatively frugal and considering that I was continuing to "frontload" into BTC.

Sure, I had been frontloading the whole 2 years from 2013 through 2016, but my confidence about the frontloading never really started to see the light of day until about May 2016 when the BTC price shot above $500 (of course we had that little burst from $250 to $500 in late November 2015, but that had gone back to bouncing between $350 and $420, so it did not really begin to feel more solid until the May 2016-ish - and even the mid-2016 rise did not feel the best because we got the purported Bitfinex hack in late July/early August 2016 - which drug the BTC prices back to sub $600 prices for a couple of months).

In essence, what I am trying to say, is that even frontloading does not need to be considered as an all or nothing kind of practice.  A person can frontload in a kind of incremental way... a way that leans in a kind of direction without necessarily going all in, but at the same time, in the guy's (or gal's) head, the amount of the investment feels like too much and is quite balanced in an uncomfortable direction.
  

(and thanks JJG for the honest previous response)

I am not trying to hide these kinds of matters from anyone, and of course, I account for various ways that money is lost along the way.  Maybe Lazlo also could say that he got fucked by spending 10k BTC on two pizzas, but he surely does not consider his decision in that way.

Of course, there are risks with being an early adopter and exploring various kinds of ways to exchange coins or to keep coins on exchanges, and sim porting surely caught a lot of BTC HODLers by surprise, including yours truly.  Sims porting is still a strategy used by hackers and remains quite effective.  Hackers are also learning new and innovative ways to hack, so being your own bank is a fuck of a difficult thing to attempt to practice without getting robbed.  Of course, the more that you experiment with a variety of tools, the  more that you might learn, but sometimes you also might inadvertently open yourself up to one or more attack vectors.  

At least, I feel that I did not get fucked by using some of the shady altcoin exchanges because I hardly dabbled in altcoins, so a lot of people (maybe more) got fucked because they experimented with various altcoins, but yeah, I did give BTC-e (that's and exchange) that transitioned into WEX too much benefit of the doubt by continuing to use their exchange/services while they were continuing to be attacked by the US Government.  In retrospect, I probably should not have considered them to be able to prevail in the good fight, whether it was trying to continue to operate in a way that evaded getting shut down or they were not secretly planning an exit scam.  In the end, coins were lost.. and I had opportunities to remove a decent amount of those coins, and I had even done it at one point to see if they would let me, and after they let me withdraw the vast majority of my coins, I ended up, through several months, putting back more than the amount of coins that I had initially withdrawn... which seems really stupid in hindsight... and as if I had not spent enough time really considering the amount of risk that I was putting on that part of my BTC holdings... which ended up going poof (even though there are some threads attempting to figure out if there are ways that people can get their coins back or a portion of their coins back, the odds seem to be quite on the low end, currently.. maybe less than the dumber dumber odds - eg. "there's a chance.")
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bitserve
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January 18, 2020, 04:09:50 PM

It won't go to $400K you delusional fools!

If someone really needs $400K to be rich... you are doing it wrong and it is more Bitcoin what you need so that you can reach your goals with a much lower price.

Fools.


Aiai..... bitserve.... the word “never” is just to strong to use though I do agree on trying to gain as much BTC as possible

I don't think I used the word "never"... but yeah, my main point is exactly that. Price alone won't make anyone rich if he doesn't have enough stake in the game in first instance. Never.

And I only made a "bet" that I would be perfectly glad to "lose". IF. Wink

Driving and reading bad habit it seems .... excuse me sir

Please stop doing that! I hope that at least you are wearing your sunglasses! You know...


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January 18, 2020, 04:10:38 PM

Why are we paying so much attention to a clearly peripheral issue?
Everybody knows that @jbreher likes BSV. So what? He does not force anyone to buy it, just states his opinion (infrequently).
I think that he is mistaken, but it is just an opinion.
Some guys like pussy and some like something else, #nohomo.

All this lambasting a fellow WO member is for naught and kind of sad to see.
Reminds me of a conflict between bolsheviks and mensheviks or going even more "satirical/historical", Lilliputians and Blefuscudians.
Quote
All Lilliputians should break their eggs on the small end first.

Well put.  I don't have personal issues with jbreher and he patently is not stupid.

That said I do feel the two main forks are run by a rum bunch and I personally find CSW an utterly sleazy human being, who is in my eyes a proven liar.  But that doesn't make our fellow WO member a liar - and he has the right to be mistaken, as does anyone.  Jeez, I have my bag of alts, one I am very attached to (as I suspect do many here).  I don't tend to shill it, I will however defend it.

Each to their own.

Let's say hypothetically (I don't know if this happened or happens in this thread) your favorite lil bag of alts is beaten upon here because people consider it to not only be a shitcoin but it is also a kind of attack on bitcoin.  Are you going to defend it here?  Sure a lot of altcoins rely upon bitcoin being deficient in some ways and supposedly solving some problems that bitcoin cannot solve, but many of them are not attacks on bitcoin as much as the bcash camps or even some of the others when they start to approach the size of bitcoin they act like they are actually better than bitcoin in terms of sound money, which is truly bullshit and they need to be called out on their bullshit.  

I still tentatively conclude that anyone trying to talk positive about any altcoins in this thread deserve to be beaten up, and some of them deserve it more than others based on the kind of their attack, the size of their attack when they get BIGGER, and their misinformation/misleading spreading in respect to bitcoin.  I hypothesize that your purported "bag of alts", kurious, do not likely fit into the same category as the bcash variants or maybe even the others in terms of the amount that they are attempted to be shilled in this thread.

TLDR: I see little to no reason for us to be "open-minded" in this thread regarding allowing various alt coin conversations to get into this thread, because it is a fucking slippery-ass slope that turns into an avalanche of phoney baloney nonsense if it is tolerated (as open minded) in the slightest.  Sure, talk about food or travel or politics or sex or religious or racists / intellectual superiority.  Those off-topics do not have any kind of meaningful propensity to devolve into an avalanche of pumpening of bullshit topics like the tolerance of altcoin discussions does.  In essence:  Nip that altcoin talk bullshit in the bud (or butt as some people would like to say... #nohomo).    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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January 18, 2020, 04:13:18 PM

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people = shit
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January 18, 2020, 04:25:34 PM
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https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1218320136295342082
1970


https://saveforamerica.org/category/family-finances/


https://imgur.com/f2VjA7t


FIAT shit, buy BTCitcoin
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January 18, 2020, 04:28:04 PM

I am fresh back from an unexpected work/vacation back and forth across 4 states getting a lot of looks wearing my (actual) Bitcoin hat Smiley
It almost made a life insurance saleswoman/scammer I was trolling shit themselves after a series of events in a conversation including them doubting me and thereafter presenting with some BTC schwag blowing their mind that I wasn't just talking shit, lol..


Finally broke out of my downward channel lines just now..

End to the bear for a while now?
$10k in 2 months?

Try $10K in 2 days. This is bitcoin, man.


I don't think we are into that kind of pump yet..
I think gains like that will happen slightly after the halving but who knows..
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January 18, 2020, 04:37:31 PM


Where do they serve coffee for 1.59, please invite me
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January 18, 2020, 04:39:00 PM

I am fresh back from an unexpected work/vacation back and forth across 4 states getting a lot of looks wearing my (actual) Bitcoin hat Smiley
It almost made a life insurance saleswoman/scammer I was trolling shit themselves after a series of events in a conversation including them doubting me and thereafter presenting with some BTC schwag blowing their mind that I wasn't just talking shit, lol..


Finally broke out of my downward channel lines just now..

End to the bear for a while now?
$10k in 2 months?

Try $10K in 2 days. This is bitcoin, man.


I don't think we are into that kind of pump yet..
I think gains like that will happen slightly after the halving but who knows..

Try 10K this evening bro's ......
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January 18, 2020, 04:41:13 PM


Video shows garbage being dumped into a river (supposedly in ecuador), which seems to me to be one of the reasons why governments are needed.


Yeah.... poor lil innocent orange haired guy.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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January 18, 2020, 04:46:48 PM

BSV had a pump last few days, Jbreher told us "this is just the start" i'm just wondering the start of what ??

Can someone tell me please....  Roll Eyes

It's an attempt to get regular peeps to keep buy BSV bags in order that some of the pumpeners can attempt to regain some of their losses by how much capital they had to expend in order to pump up that crap.
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January 18, 2020, 04:50:46 PM
Last edit: January 18, 2020, 05:39:20 PM by vapourminer

I'll interject with something nice. Congrats on your BSV investment, jbreher.

*ducks and runs*

Nobody said jbreher is stupid.

... Well, maybe some did lol

He is wrong though. But it won't matter. He will do well.

same here. jbreher, congrats on whatever coins, whatever you have.. btc, bch, bsv, bshit, whaever. and especially whatever profit. if an informed person takes risks, a person deserves the reward.. and also the rekkt, if thats the outcome.

jbreher is informed enough about the various pros/cons of what he holds that he can make it (most likely). unfortunately not all have enough understanding to make an informed choice.

TLDR; jbeher is no dummy and his system works for him. of course what works for him could very well REKKT others. so DYOR



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January 18, 2020, 04:51:23 PM
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https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/eqblby/daily_discussion_saturday_january_18_2020/fepviu9/

This guy has a different view I guess. I too think $100k would be max price this time but what if...

Quote
So last year I made a prediction last year on January 1st. I don't think I did too bad. I thought we would bang on 6k a lot more and not just rocket through it. I thought we would double in price for the year, which we did. We just made a little pit stop to 13k first before coming back down and ending the year at 7k.

This year I think we'll double in price again to 14-15k. However, if we have another mini bubble like last year it could put us above 20k price, in which case all bets are off. If we don't break 20k I think we could bounce off of it, something like this. It would look like a big C&H on the weekly which is, of course, a bullish formation.

I've been lurking for a while here and I see talks of the next bubble. My own baseless long term speculation of the next bubble is probably a lot higher than others, which I find interesting. Many are expecting 70k to 100k and unless the long term prospects of bitcoin are already topping out then I feel that is a very low estimate. Generally bitcoin will do about 10x from the previous bubble top, which points to the next top being around 200k. I think it will get to at least that next bubble, with a higher, but less likely, target of 250k.

In fact that will lead to the perfect bubble catalyst, the overtaking of gold's market cap. If bitcoin's market cap = gold's then it would put bitcoin at 380,000 USD/coin. I guarantee you those will be the headlines that will cause the frenzy for the next bubble. "BITCOIN TO BECOME THE NEXT GOLD?" "BITCOIN IS THE NEW GOLD" "NEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM" "BITCOIN TO 1 MILLION USD?" When you see those headlines start to pop up as bitcoin hits 250k, you know that will be the top. That's your sell signal everyone. Don't miss it.

As for the bottom of the next bubble, I hope that bitcoin becomes more stable as time goes on and therefore retrace less. I still expect a big retracement from the top of the next bubble but I hope it doesn't go more than 60%. Even 70% would be harsh. If we have another 80% retracement it will leave me scratching my head as to why it isn't becoming more stable, but I'll still buy back in hard for the next bubble to 1million usd. I'll buy heavily from 100k and below.

Also, I think after this next bubble it will take longer to hit new highs and each subsequent bubble will be smaller in terms of % than the previous. Right now we are on a 4 year cycle, but I think that will increase to 6-8 years cycles. And if you take 250k as the top then to 1million that will only be 4x increase compared to the previous 10x. Smaller bubbles become more likely as the market becomes saturated. Long, long term, like decades in the future, bubbles will becomes obsolete and gains will be limited to a few % a year.

Well, that was a fun wall of text. Have fun trading everyone. I'm still just hodling and won't post that much anymore. Should be a fun two years!

According to moonmath $200k is in the realm of possibilities. (for the next 2 years)

$400k's possibility starting to become reality only after 2024.

Actually, eighty something %% decline this time left me scratching my head as well.
I fully expected that the decline would be less (60-70%) in the current cycle, yet we still went like a yo-yo.
Actually, it was a few percentages less than prior, but only a few.
94% ($32 to $2) first cycle, 86% second cycle (1160 to $160), 84% this cycle (19870 to 3100).
You can see that draw-dawn got slightly lower, not by much.
Hence lies the problem. If we keep popping up lower gains (in %) in each cycle (320000% to 57900% to 12400% to, say, 2655% in the upcoming), but always declining in the % of gains, but keeping draw-dawn high at or above 80%, then, inevitably, and quite soon, we would have a reverse cycle where we increase less than subsequent drop and that would be a devastating picture.
BTW, 2655% increase (keeping with lower increase trend) in the upcoming is projecting to $82K.

TL;DR So far, each cycle the drop is above 80% and changing very slowly, but gains are declining more rapidly (in %) each cycle, suggesting that at some point relatively soon we would have a down cycle (in the next one or two).
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January 18, 2020, 04:52:02 PM

Some guy on twitter ran a full node in a Tesla. That is what I call the definition of cool. Source

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January 18, 2020, 05:05:22 PM

I am fresh back from an unexpected work/vacation back and forth across 4 states getting a lot of looks wearing my (actual) Bitcoin hat Smiley
It almost made a life insurance saleswoman/scammer I was trolling shit themselves after a series of events in a conversation including them doubting me and thereafter presenting with some BTC schwag blowing their mind that I wasn't just talking shit, lol..


Finally broke out of my downward channel lines just now..

End to the bear for a while now?
$10k in 2 months?

Try $10K in 2 days. This is bitcoin, man.


I don't think we are into that kind of pump yet..
I think gains like that will happen slightly after the halving but who knows..

Try 10K this evening bro's ......
That's a bit of a stretch, we'd need our good old lad Xi Jinping to do some pumping to hit 10k so quick.
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January 18, 2020, 05:08:39 PM


duderino, in this case your opinion does not count, you only frequent first class establishments. Cheesy
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January 18, 2020, 05:09:18 PM

https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/eqblby/daily_discussion_saturday_january_18_2020/fepviu9/

This guy has a different view I guess. I too think $100k would be max price this time but what if...

Quote
So last year I made a prediction last year on January 1st. I don't think I did too bad. I thought we would bang on 6k a lot more and not just rocket through it. I thought we would double in price for the year, which we did. We just made a little pit stop to 13k first before coming back down and ending the year at 7k.

This year I think we'll double in price again to 14-15k. However, if we have another mini bubble like last year it could put us above 20k price, in which case all bets are off. If we don't break 20k I think we could bounce off of it, something like this. It would look like a big C&H on the weekly which is, of course, a bullish formation.

I've been lurking for a while here and I see talks of the next bubble. My own baseless long term speculation of the next bubble is probably a lot higher than others, which I find interesting. Many are expecting 70k to 100k and unless the long term prospects of bitcoin are already topping out then I feel that is a very low estimate. Generally bitcoin will do about 10x from the previous bubble top, which points to the next top being around 200k. I think it will get to at least that next bubble, with a higher, but less likely, target of 250k.

In fact that will lead to the perfect bubble catalyst, the overtaking of gold's market cap. If bitcoin's market cap = gold's then it would put bitcoin at 380,000 USD/coin. I guarantee you those will be the headlines that will cause the frenzy for the next bubble. "BITCOIN TO BECOME THE NEXT GOLD?" "BITCOIN IS THE NEW GOLD" "NEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM" "BITCOIN TO 1 MILLION USD?" When you see those headlines start to pop up as bitcoin hits 250k, you know that will be the top. That's your sell signal everyone. Don't miss it.

As for the bottom of the next bubble, I hope that bitcoin becomes more stable as time goes on and therefore retrace less. I still expect a big retracement from the top of the next bubble but I hope it doesn't go more than 60%. Even 70% would be harsh. If we have another 80% retracement it will leave me scratching my head as to why it isn't becoming more stable, but I'll still buy back in hard for the next bubble to 1million usd. I'll buy heavily from 100k and below.

Also, I think after this next bubble it will take longer to hit new highs and each subsequent bubble will be smaller in terms of % than the previous. Right now we are on a 4 year cycle, but I think that will increase to 6-8 years cycles. And if you take 250k as the top then to 1million that will only be 4x increase compared to the previous 10x. Smaller bubbles become more likely as the market becomes saturated. Long, long term, like decades in the future, bubbles will becomes obsolete and gains will be limited to a few % a year.

Well, that was a fun wall of text. Have fun trading everyone. I'm still just hodling and won't post that much anymore. Should be a fun two years!

According to moonmath $200k is in the realm of possibilities. (for the next 2 years)

$400k's possibility starting to become reality only after 2024.

Actually, eighty something %% decline this time left me scratching my head as well.
I fully expected that the decline would be less (60-70%) in the current cycle, yet we still went like a yo-yo.
Actually, it was a few percentages less than prior, but only a few.
94% ($32 to $2) first cycle, 86% second cycle (1160 to $160), 84% this cycle (19870 to 3100).
You can see that draw-dawn got slightly lower, not by much.
Hence lies the problem. If we keep popping up lower gains (in %) in each cycle (320000% to 57900% to 12400% to, say, 2655% in the upcoming), but always declining in the % of gains, but keeping draw-dawn high at or above 80%, then, inevitably, and quote soon, we would have a reverse cycle where we increase less than subsequent drop and that would be a devastating picture.
BTW, 2655% increase (keeping with lower increase trend) in the upcoming is projecting to $82K.

TL;DR So far, each cycle the drop is above 80% and changing very slowly, but gains are declining more rapidly (in %) each cycle, suggesting that at some point relatively soon we would have a down cycle (in the next one or two).

TLDR 2;

This might be the last big bitcoin pump with a new ATH we are going to see.

If it goes down %80 again after hitting $80k, it would fuck things up. Another new ATH may never come after falling from $80k.

So we either push btc above $100k, or bitcoin ded. (assuming the drop from the ATH will be %80 again)

Now it is getting even more interesting.

Either take no risks and dump everything between 50-100k or be a believer and go down with the ship. (or go to the fucking moon with the same ship, $500k/piece)
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January 18, 2020, 05:09:39 PM
Last edit: January 18, 2020, 06:41:05 PM by bitserve
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

It won't go to $400K you delusional fools!

If someone really needs $400K to be rich... you are doing it wrong and it is more Bitcoin what you need so that you can reach your goals with a much lower price.

Fools.

Aiai..... bitserve.... the word “never” is just to strong to use though I do agree on trying to gain as much BTC as possible

I don't think I used the word "never"... but yeah, my main point is exactly that. Price alone won't make anyone rich if he doesn't have enough stake in the game in first instance. Never.

And I only made a "bet" that I would be perfectly glad to "lose". IF. Wink

I see your point and I agree, except that the current price may be too high for a newcomer to be able to accumulate "enough stake" in the game to achieve financial independence at a much lower price...

Out of curiosity, what amount would you (or other fellow WOs) consider a healthy stash that one should have in order to realistically achieve financial independence? I know that it depends on country of residence, lifestyle, etc., but would love to hear your opinions on this.


Well, as you have correctly said, it depends on many factors so first you would need to think in FIAT terms (which is how most mundane things are priced) and establish a goal.

Let's say you come up with $1million as nice round number. Again, this could as low as $500K in some countries and just for a very modest lifestyle up to $5 million for US, with many years to live, and with a nice lifestyle.

ANyway, as I said, let's use the $1 million figure. So then, if you have 10 BTC, you would need a solid $100K price to reach that goal. Or just less than $50K if you have the "classic" 21BTC.

Most people with a three digit amount of BTC, we could consider they have already almost made it. Two digits... maybe soon, if we get lucky in the next few years.

Everyone needs to make their own numbers. And also remember that there is no guarantee of anything.

Of course that is if someone decides to cash out everything (or most) when the price target is reached. Which is not what I would suggest to do.

It would be much more reasonable, yet risky, to just keep cashing out as needed, even if you already reached your "goal". More so if you expect Bitcoin will keep rising during the next years or even decades.

Also, who said someone that just arrives right now to Bitcoin with barely any savings could easily just come and retire by investing what he can? That's not how the world (or nothing) works.

I understand the "retire" and "financial independence" point... but no, no one has any guarantee of that. And the only ones that have been in that position thanks Bitcoin it is either because:

1- They were extremely lucky in their entry point and/or decisions
2- They arrived later but they took the risk of investing a sizeable amount of money.
3- They hodled for MANY years. (ie. I am now on my 7 year some others way longer).

Bitcoin was never intended to be a get rich quick scheme, even if it resulted like that in some cases. For most it won't be a "retirement level" profit, just a better or worse investment.

As a final note I think I can give you the following great advise: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1924731.msg19097436#msg19097436

IOW, I don't think you really need any additional advise from me.
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January 18, 2020, 05:14:42 PM

I feel like I am going to miss the ATH again. Feels all over 2017.

This next pump will separate the believers from the get rich quick guys. Believers are ready to go to zero.  Cool But...

ARE YOOUUUU READY???!!!11??
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January 18, 2020, 05:14:49 PM
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At $400k there won't be any normal people with bitcoins left probably. You won't be able to cash out even if you wanted to because you won't have any bitcoins.

Most log TA charts say the next ATH will be between 50 and 100k. It is probably not the best idea to wait for any price above $100k.



TA charts, right. I would say the opposite. If Bitcoin indeed reaches such valuation one day, it would financially be very irresponsible not having any bitcoin.

Who said that you should dump all?

It definitely makes sense to dump some between these prices.

Many people regret for not selling during the ATH in 2017. It is fine if you don't need cash or you are already rich, then keep hodling.

You should probably follow a route similar to JJG's. (DCA when in accumulation phase, DCA when in cash out phase.)

I would not characterize cashing out as DCA..

but it is more like the opposite of buying on the dip.  Sure buying on the dip could transition into a kind of DCA, but it still is a bit of a different concept than DCA.

Each of us needs to decide where exactly we are in our timeline, too, which causes us to consider how long do we think that we are going to live which will cause us to determine if we are in accumulation phase, maintenance phase or liquidation phase (not necessarily going to be a pure phase either).

If you are in your 50s or 60s, you likely are going to feel decently comfortable transitioning into a kind of maintenance / liquidation balance, but if you are in your 30s or 40s, fuck, you have the potential of a lot more time that could cause you to NOT be able to sustain passive income from how much BTC you have accumulated (and your other investments); therefore, when you are younger like that you gotta be careful to make sure that you have enough before you really declare yourself to be clearly out of any kind of BTC accumulation phase.. In other words, you better have a fuck load of extra BTC to make sure you are good in the event that BTC goes from $100k back down to $10k.. .and yeah, maybe having some other hedges as well.

Even though it does not hurt to bat around some of these ideas because we have some similar comparison points and similar considerations that each of us has to go through in order to individualize our investment considerations, but in the end, no one can really establish what those boundaries are going to be besides yourself, and if you end up going too much into maintenance/liquidation stage before you are actually ready, your youth might end up biting you in the ass because you end up having 50 more years that you have to support yourself based on your relatively early decision-making.

Few of us more elderly folks are likely going to refuse if we could get back 20 more years in order to have that time, but any of us who are no longer in our 30s will likely recognize that decisions that we made in our 30s had contributed to our current financial trajectory and surely it is nice to be quite set in our 50s versus many peers who might be somewhat struggling in that time of life.. cannot really blame them, because there is a decent range and very likely that people are going to have to work in their 50s 60s and 70s a bit more than they would have wished upon themselves when they were thinking about their situation when they were younger and able to transition themselves into a possibly decent financial cushion or trying to retire too early and then getting fucked.
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