Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Icygreen]

The recent events of the epidemic that has killed so many people in China, has caused many to put Bitcoin as a refuge from value.

“Technically the structure’s bias is bullish as long as price doesn’t lose $9,150,” said Teddy Cleps, a market analyst at Crypto Freak Network. “Price has a decent margin to retrace and mark another higher high, and thus continue its growth.”

Source:https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/02/10/bitcoin-dips-on-profit-taking-but-fundamentals-show-its-parabolic-rally-is-not-finished/

Behold, according to some analysts, Bitcoin and Gold continue to rise despite the outlook in the world, some speak of correlation even.

It is well known that the correlation is low between the two .. only that it can be taken as an important fundamental that can be exploited in the market.

Correlating investing in safe haven assets during times of uncertainty is normal and it's an especially important place to watch with Bitcoin. The reality is that most of the world simply does not care about Bitcoin or much at all for that matter, all they want is to continue to live the 'normal' life they've been afforded for the past 7 decades or so.  It's my belief that harsh events must challenge the masses 'normal' way of living and force change. Bitcoin adoption as a safe haven asset will continue during global crisis but I'm afraid the absence of such events will allow the herd to slip back into an apathetic slumber.
It appears that greed has mostly powered the Bitcoin market thus far and as much as I'd like to think that it would be convenience that ushers it forward from here, fear is the more likely motivator.  Most great changes have been born of great tragedies. If Bitcoin is to be as revolutionary as we speak of, I don't see why it would be any different this time.

[1713880755]

1713880755

[jojo69]

I'm bored

[JayJuanGee]

GOOD morning guys.

This is fine. In fact it is more than fine... this is being one of the most beautiful and smooth "pumpenings" ever. Wouldn't even mind if it were to retest $9K or even high $8K to scare the shit out of any remaining weak hands before going on.

So far, so good.

Exactamente!!!!!

We should not be complaining about nearly a 6 week pump from $7,175 to $10,200 (about 42%) or even going from about 8 weeks at the December 17 bottom of $6,424 (which would be nearly 59%).

Sure, there was a blip of a correction in the $8,xxxs, but overall, we have not really had any meaningful correction, so how can that NOT be good?

I am not saying that we have to have a correction in order to resume UPPITY, but having some kind of correction or flat period is NOT exactly out of expectations or even bearish... even though did I not hear some sorcerer wannabes proclaiming that we were never going to see 4 digits again?  Yeah right....

I would like to get out of 4 digits too, and to forever stay out of 4 digits, but also seems to be a lot of froth coming with us from the alt coin (aka shitcoin) scene.. so I am not sure if that altcoin pumpening is healthy... but either way, bitcoin probably does not give too many shits, even though there could be both dragging effects but also slingshot effects too, so some of these dynamics with the shitcoins can cut either way in terms of their short term effects on BTC prices.

[Searing]

I'm bored

I'm bored, reading your boring post above....yawn....(lobs it back at you)

dismal cycle boredom

edit: good point above

We should not be complaining about nearly a 6 week pump from $7,175 to $10,200 (about 42%)

maybe I'm just dull and not bored?

[AlcoHoDL]

The Analog Session - N5 From Outer Space 

I looked closely and realised they're using the Formant analogue synth, from Elektor magazine! I wanted to build this when I was in my early teens! I still have (some of) the original Elektor magazines.

Wow! Just WOW!

[JayJuanGee]

Pretty much what we’ve discussed here ourselves, including the numbers there.

What do you think buddy, what’s your estimated top of this coming bull run?

I feel a little bit more bullish than that.
In mic's contest I voted for 25,000 by halving. This means ATH before halving, this is going to be a little bit stretchted seeing where are we stand right now.
However, we know how it happens: slowly at start, then all of a sudden.

This can be achieved if there's a daily gain of 1.1% on the BTC/USD price.

Not impossible, but if it happens, it will probably be as you say, slow --> sudden. Regardless, I think 2020 will be a good year for Bitcoin, with 2021 breaking 6 figures. The main thing is not to reach it, but to sustain it.

I'd say, keep HoDLing throughout '20-'21 at least.

This is fine.

Don't mean to be a party poop..... well maybe I do?

What if the BTC price shoots up to $85k-ish by the end of 2020... but then corrects back down to $25k for the duration of 2021 and maybe into 2022... then what are the HODLer "waiting to sell some BTC" peeps gonna do when king daddy does not perform up to expectations?  

Maybe they start to feel that they did not sell enough BTC on the way up to $85k-ish? or they did not sell any?
 and then they feel that they missed the opportunity, again?  

Maybe even having to wait a few more years for the next price splurger into 2023-25--?   who knows... patterns can be broken, no?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?

[yefi]

I'm bored

By which parasite - mites, jiggers, hookworms?

[realr0ach]

FRESH FROM WANGA/MASTERLUC TELEGRAM:

P.S.: Never seen him write so much. Weird. I am not going to opine on it. Bleh.

The only relevant information about halvings are that Chinese scammers who have a centralized monopoly on mining and selling mining machines have an incentive to attempt to rig the price upwards to continue the profitability of their monopoly scam rather than turning the miners off.  Then others like the Winklevoss who have attained a monopoly on supply have an incentive to try and help them do so.  So it's a crowd sourced pump and dump scam.  But these actors still have to gauge if there's any actual buyers (fools) for their pump and dump or it just implodes when they try to rig it and they lose a bunch of money.

[Lambie Slayer]

Just the flu, bro.

https://twitter.com/IsChinar/status/1227018528487878657

[Lambie Slayer]

Confirmation from the CDC that not only is Coronavirus in the U.S., but that California already has two strains.

They will be playing the "Just the flu, bro" game while we pump to 14k with little fanfare.

https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/1225796522299871232

"Thanks to open data sharing by
@CDCgov
, we've updated https://nextstrain.org/ncov with 3 #nCoV2019 genomes sampled in California on Jan 29 (in grey below). Two are identical, and one branches from a Guangdong cluster."

[realr0ach]

Just the flu, bro.

Buying and holding imaginary, valueless, digital shitcoins is far more scary than a 2-5% mortality rate (for white people at least).  I laugh at 2% mortality rate.  I wouldn't even wear a mask at 5%.  If the Jews attempt to poison the well with smallpox, then we might have an actual problem.  I have noticed Amazon is having a very hard time keeping new, popular electronics products in stock, though.  So if you plan on doing any type of computer upgrades, you might wanna go ahead and buy them now.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I also think there is still fuel ...

$BTC - I think there is still some rocket fuel left in the #bitcoin tank..

Source: https://twitter.com/BigChonis/status/1227046665187622912

The volume shows that there is a lot of negotiation, besides the current world events can help to continue growing in price.

[jojo69]

I looked closely and realised they're using the Formant analogue synth, from Elektor magazine! I wanted to build this when I was in my early teens!

No time like the present.  It would be easier and cheaper to implement such a project now than at any time in history.  Nothing in it more integrated than an op amp.  Get orders in to Digi-Key and OSH Park and build a module.

Would not surprise me one bit if someone hasn't already created and shared the gerbers for the boards if you poke around a bit.

edit/  another useful link https://www.frontpanelexpress.com/     /edit

Not even joking man, doooo iiiiiit

[Lambie Slayer]

Bitcoin isnt gonna pump, buy stocks bc they are at all time highs. Its just the flu bro.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

I like best the part where these msm crackpots touted a 1 out of 400 mortality rate when was actually 1 out of 5. Just the flu bro, who cares if mortality is 8000 percent higher than our fake news pretends.

[Biodom]

Pretty much what we’ve discussed here ourselves, including the numbers there.

What do you think buddy, what’s your estimated top of this coming bull run?

I feel a little bit more bullish than that.
In mic's contest I voted for 25,000 by halving. This means ATH before halving, this is going to be a little bit stretchted seeing where are we stand right now.
However, we know how it happens: slowly at start, then all of a sudden.

This can be achieved if there's a daily gain of 1.1% on the BTC/USD price.

Not impossible, but if it happens, it will probably be as you say, slow --> sudden. Regardless, I think 2020 will be a good year for Bitcoin, with 2021 breaking 6 figures. The main thing is not to reach it, but to sustain it.

I'd say, keep HoDLing throughout '20-'21 at least.

This is fine.

Don't mean to be a party poop..... well maybe I do?

What if the BTC price shoots up to $85k-ish by the end of 2020... but then corrects back down to $25k for the duration of 2021 and maybe into 2022... then what are the HODLer "waiting to sell some BTC" peeps gonna do when king daddy does not perform up to expectations?  

Maybe they start to feel that they did not sell enough BTC on the way up to $85k-ish? or they did not sell any?
 and then they feel that they missed the opportunity, again?  

Maybe even having to wait a few more years for the next price splurger into 2023-25--?   who knows... patterns can be broken, no?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?

How about this strategy:

I assume that 80-100K btc next cycle medium is correct.
Why correct? Because at the same S2F as gold in the next cycle, I don't see why btc cannot have a 20-25% of gold's market cap (at the minimum).

If above is correct, then btc would fluctuate around that number (sometimes out-performing, sometimes under-performing).
Use whatever multiplier you think is likely to describe such under/out performance.
If such multiplier is 3X, then it is 240K-300K at the peak, 27-33K at the trough.
If multiplier is 2X, then 160K-200K at the peak, 40-50K at the trough.
No multiplier-just sell some at 80-100K when it gets there.
Divide your "selling stash" into three equal parts.
Sell one at 80-100, second at 160-200 (if it gets there), third at 240-300K (if it gets there).
Then, wait for either 27-33K or 40-50K trough and possibly re-buy there or simply enjoy it.
Average of all three would be approximately $180K (not bad!)

[AlcoHoDL]

Pretty much what we’ve discussed here ourselves, including the numbers there.

What do you think buddy, what’s your estimated top of this coming bull run?

I feel a little bit more bullish than that.
In mic's contest I voted for 25,000 by halving. This means ATH before halving, this is going to be a little bit stretchted seeing where are we stand right now.
However, we know how it happens: slowly at start, then all of a sudden.

This can be achieved if there's a daily gain of 1.1% on the BTC/USD price.

Not impossible, but if it happens, it will probably be as you say, slow --> sudden. Regardless, I think 2020 will be a good year for Bitcoin, with 2021 breaking 6 figures. The main thing is not to reach it, but to sustain it.

I'd say, keep HoDLing throughout '20-'21 at least.

This is fine.

Don't mean to be a party poop..... well maybe I do?

What if the BTC price shoots up to $85k-ish by the end of 2020... but then corrects back down to $25k for the duration of 2021 and maybe into 2022... then what are the HODLer "waiting to sell some BTC" peeps gonna do when king daddy does not perform up to expectations?  

Maybe they start to feel that they did not sell enough BTC on the way up to $85k-ish? or they did not sell any?
 and then they feel that they missed the opportunity, again?  

Maybe even having to wait a few more years for the next price splurger into 2023-25--?   who knows... patterns can be broken, no?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?

You'll never be a party poop JJG. You know that.

Well, there's always a risk. Maybe assess the situation at the time, see how far you are from your "moon", and sell a percentage of your stash? Like 10%? 25%? Or even 50%? You're still a HoDLer. Depends how you observe it. Look really closely and you'll see ups and downs and wild swings and chaos. Move the camera far away and you'll see a nice uphill path, with the occasional valley, but you'll know where it's heading. Unless it all goes haywire due to some unforeseen "extinction event". Still OK, as the investment was always "as much as we could afford to lose" anyway.

It's fine by me. Can't guarantee anything, but I feel a kind of certainty that no fiat investment has ever given me. I felt this when I understood how Bitcoin works. It was a kind of revelation for me, and I felt sick to my stomach when I realised how much time I'd lost. It's talking to us. Through LoyceV's graph, through the price charts, through Satoshi's paper, through BT posts. It's everywhere. And it's expanding.

[AlcoHoDL]

I looked closely and realised they're using the Formant analogue synth, from Elektor magazine! I wanted to build this when I was in my early teens!

No time like the present.  It would be easier and cheaper to implement such a project now than at any time in history.  Nothing in it more integrated than an op amp.  Get orders in to Digi-Key and OSH Park and build a module.

Would not surprise me one bit if someone hasn't already created and shared the gerbers for the boards if you poke around a bit.

Not even joking man, doooo iiiiiit

You know, you're absolutely right. And it crossed my mind too, while listening to the track. Back then we were busy with school and no money for such big projects. Now it's so much easier. If the Gerbers are available it's just a matter of ordering the parts and PCBs and assembling it. This will be on my to-do list when the 9-5 job is out of the way (thanks to Bitcoin).

[jojo69]

https://www.unz.com/chopkins/bernie-sanders-commie-kill-swarm/

But by far the most bombastic display of unbridled Sanders-Commie-Kill-Swarm-Panic was MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, who totally lost it after the last debate and started sputtering about “socialists” staging public mass-executions in Central Park. Matthews is apparently firmly convinced that Sanders, if he wins the election, plans to dress up like Fidel Castro, march Matthews and his cronies out onto the Great Lawn, and go full-bore Daenerys Targaryen on them. He sat there, trembling, on national television, eyes afire with paranoia, jabbering about the godless “Reds” like a scene from Kubrick’s Dr. Strangelove that got cut because it was too over-the-top.

Seriously, though, I doubt he has much to worry about. Regardless of who wins the election this year, the supranational corporatocracy that essentially owns the U.S. government is not about to let Bernie Sanders implement the same basic social programs that most capitalist countries throughout world have provided to their people for decades. Jesus, just imagine the freedomless horror if Americans could go to university, and, you know, maybe raise a child or two, without spending the rest of their lives in debt! Think of the suffering that would inflict on the banks, and insurance companies, and military contractors, not to mention the pharmaceutical industry. God help America, should it go down that road! The next thing you know there’d be high-speed trains, subsidized art, and un-chlorinated chicken … there’s no telling where the nightmare would end.

out fucking standing...lol

[JayJuanGee]

I am NOT sure if you should be proud of NOT buying.

Well I am..
I am definitely proud of what crypto I have been able to accumulate based on nothing but my own skill and determination to stack Satoshis, made completely on my own merit, having absolutely nothing to do with any advantage of how much I could "afford to buy".. I made it myself having nothing to do with $ or investments funded by any efforts outside of crypto.. Made all my crypto from crypto..

Whatever floats your boat.  If you want to handicap yourself and then proclaim victory because you overcame obstacles then that is your choice.

Even though you want to purposefully find value in achieving a kind of self-help determination, there are a lot of people who would have taken advantage of easier, better and more efficient ways to acquire way the fuck more BTC with half the effort because they did not purposefully handicap themselves.  The have nots already have enough handicaps that are imposed upon them by NOT being born with any silver spoon in their mouth, and seems a bit ridiculous to add more handicaps on purpose to yourself in order to unnecessarily prove something to yourself that is absolutely not necessary to prove... of course, if you find some kind of personal pleasure with exercising in that kind of way, then you go girl!!!   


Let's say, for example, you were sufficiently balls deep into bitcoin in late 2015 and early 2016 while BTC prices were floating in the $375 to $425 range, and you had a $6k budget so, you could have bought 15 BTC relatively easily with that money.  Instead you decided to dick around and maybe earn 1BTC or some nonsense like that.  By mid 2017, you are kind of fucked because BTC prices are in the $2,000s, so your $6k is only going to get you about 3BTC.

By the way, merely because I bought my BTC with fiat, I don't feel like I did not earn those BTC or work my ass off in order to accumulate the fiat that I used in order to buy BTC.  There is absolutely NO fucking shame to buy BTC, especially if you maybe have a job that might pay you more than enough to live on, and maybe you have an extra $500 or more a month that you can invest... and after a few years, you may have stashed away a few thousand dollars that you can invest into some asset or another, but you can also decide to put that into bitcoin... or even to transfer the value from your other assets into bitcoin.

I have already agreed to grant to you that it is quite likely that both you and I did not come from money, and therefore, we have built our capital on our own... yeah, maybe I had nearly 30 years to build capital  before transitioning that value into bitcoin, but the value is NOT less worthy merely because I had bee4n building it over 30 years... and you do NOT have any kind of superior claim because you decided to earn your BTC for free with your time and your supposed "special" "guru-like" skills.   

It's not like I got lucky on a few trades and made a killing.. It took me a LOT of time and hard effort to make the around 10,000 manual trades I have over years and gained the skill to have more of them profitable than not..

If you are able to do it and you are skillful in that direction, then fucking do it... no one is stopping you.

I am suggesting, though, that trading is not something that is generally applicable to a lot of people and there are a lot of people who are going to lose money if they do it.... but if you can do it, then do it...  This is getting repetitive... fuck...

You don't think that's something to be proud of?

I did not say that you should not be proud, but in the end, who fucking cares, if you happen to be a guru.. good for you... I mean, are you going to share some of your knowledge and skills here?  Do you want people to subscribe to your newsletter?  What is it that you want, exactly?

You can be proud of something you bought, while I can't be proud of something that I have MADE.. ??
I think not..

An unimportant distinction for me...  And, there are lots of ways to build capital and it takes a long time... Where the fuck are you in the whole scheme of things?  Hopefully, you are competing against yourself then wanting to get into a dick measuring contest here.  Now if you want to share ideas and skills about how to do these things without devolving into nonsensical bragging about how great you are then go ahead, share some of that information.

Would you be more proud of a house you bought with a nice lawn and all, or the house you built yourself on property you cleared yourself and made that nice lawn with your own hands?

There can be satisfaction with either situation, and how people spend their time or want to spend their time is discretionary, and people come to differing assessments.

So if you start with 1 BTC, then you should have 140BTC... great.  Hard to beat that.

It doesn't work like that that easily..
It is sooo much easier to double 0.01 BTC than it is to double 1 BTC.. Do you understand this?

You are the fucking person who is bragging about 14,000% returns, and if you believe that is representative, then you should be able to replicate those results.. otherwise, who fucking cares if you happen to win some money while gambling?  I don't, and I doubt that your bragging about how much money you won while gambling is helpful to very many other members who are involved in this thread.

You can flip a good spread all day long on a smaller market with 0.01 BTC but you cannot do the same with 1 BTC..
The more value you want to trade the more liquidity the market needs to have which will come with more skilled trading competition, smaller spreads, and less volatility..
Playing back and forth between walls/spreads is one of my main targets to trade but you can't do the same thing with larger amounts, because then you become the walls..
Trading based off large orders coming into the books pushing the price works great, untill your orders are the large orders that push the price, then it doesn't work anymore..

O.k.  So is it worth your time or not?  That is for you to decide.

I could give less than two shits about trading small amounts of BTC and chasing small profits, I would rather let my investment ride in a more passive way.  That's my choice, but if you want to spend all day dickering around with small orders, then that is your choice.

you are coming off as hostile to dollar cost averaging

I don't have any problem with the dollar cost averaging strategy.. I would recommend it also.. To those who aren't willing to put in any actual effort, or even alongside other efforts.. But I wouldn't shit all over other efforts/methods..

You do not have to make those other efforts like you proclaim.  Dollar cost averaging is a sufficient system... Of course, if you have more time and you want to dicker around, then you can.

If I am hostile about anything it would be this...

Trading is also NOT a way to accumulate BTC or wealth.
trading should not be a means to accumulate BTC
Trading is also NOT a way to accumulate BTC or wealth.
trading should not be a means to accumulate BTC
you should not be planning on building your BTC wealth based on trading

Because that almost feels like an attack on me..
I have invested massive amounts of time and effort into doing exactly that, and I found a way to make it work, and yes I'm damn proud of what I have been able to accomplish, and you say that it's "Not a way" and something that "Should not be done"..
You are wrong..

We disagree then... No need to continue to repeat ourselves on this.

Instead of putting in hundreds of hours playing stupid videogames like most NPC normies, I put basically that same effort into playing on exchanges..
Very wise choice IMO VS completely wasting all that time getting points in some stupid game, I accumulated satoshis instead..

Good for you.  I give less than two shits.

If anything YOU are hostile at me for not just buying bitcoin and making my way via alternative means that do not fit your narrative..
Your way is not the only way.. Sorry..

I suppose that I am hostile because 1) you make little to no sense, 2) you seem to be suggesting that normies should trade when dollar cost averaging is a much better system, especially for normies to get started  and 3) your story is flip-flopping.

You have to accept the fact that it CAN be done, unless you want to call me a liar..

No one cares.

[Lambie Slayer]

https://www.unz.com/chopkins/bernie-sanders-commie-kill-swarm/

But by far the most bombastic display of unbridled Sanders-Commie-Kill-Swarm-Panic was MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, who totally lost it after the last debate and started sputtering about “socialists” staging public mass-executions in Central Park. Matthews is apparently firmly convinced that Sanders, if he wins the election, plans to dress up like Fidel Castro, march Matthews and his cronies out onto the Great Lawn, and go full-bore Daenerys Targaryen on them. He sat there, trembling, on national television, eyes afire with paranoia, jabbering about the godless “Reds” like a scene from Kubrick’s Dr. Strangelove that got cut because it was too over-the-top.

Seriously, though, I doubt he has much to worry about. Regardless of who wins the election this year, the supranational corporatocracy that essentially owns the U.S. government is not about to let Bernie Sanders implement the same basic social programs that most capitalist countries throughout world have provided to their people for decades. Jesus, just imagine the freedomless horror if Americans could go to university, and, you know, maybe raise a child or two, without spending the rest of their lives in debt! Think of the suffering that would inflict on the banks, and insurance companies, and military contractors, not to mention the pharmaceutical industry. God help America, should it go down that road! The next thing you know there’d be high-speed trains, subsidized art, and un-chlorinated chicken … there’s no telling where the nightmare would end.

out fucking standing...lol

I can appreciate the noble aspirations of ideologies that want to help the masses get out from under the jackboot of elites, but since they have failed so many times, why not just give Bitcoin a chance to solve these problems?

Imo Bitcoin will provide the same solutions without expanding government power. Elites have used money printing to cause all the problems this article talks about. Money printing is welfare for elites. Yeah you could try to make up for it with welfare for the masses, but better to just take away the elite welfare and even the playing field, then we can skip the whole Venezuela outcome that socialism risks.