Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Olegya199]

To get my home address you’re going to have to do a lot more than offer me a bar of chocolate.

I’m not some cheap date

My home address will cost you 5BTC or a years supply of hookers & cocaine

I appreciate your joke!
 I don't think you'd really give me your home address for cocaine. Well, as you can see, I'm not from Colombia.  

I have no goal of getting your or anyone's home address/private information, I just want you to try this divine chocolate made only of natural products with your own hands.

[Last of the V8s]

Send me all the chocolate.

And you will then send a tile to each of the WO's members?

No.
Send it to me.
All.

Okay, I'm ready to send you some piece chocolates. But I wouldn't want it all to go to you alone...
And how do I send it to you?  I'm from the Ukraine.

Dude it was an attempt at humour. Never mind. There's no need to send me any choccy. Just send if someone pm's you.

[Olegya199]

first, much congratulations to you because of your anniversary.

second, this forum serves partly also as an information board for security issues related to Bitcoin and user want to stay anonymous here because of their OPSEC. so don't expect so many users are giving information about them to you for free. sorry bro!

third, if this is an attack to OPSEC of users then go f**k yourselve.

fourth, if you are just want to be kind or polite forget about the third point.

What a speech!!!   horrific
Feelings after seeing the wish
1st: 😘
2nd:🤔
3rd:😮😲
4th:😳

Such a feeling I would probably experience without knowing how much people watching their anonymity communicate in this thread, Elwar does not count. 

[Gyrsur]

Send me all the chocolate.

And you will then send a tile to each of the WO's members?

No.
Send it to me.
All.

Okay, I'm ready to send you some piece chocolates. But I wouldn't want it all to go to you alone...
And how do I send it to you?  I'm from the Ukraine.

Dude it was an attempt at humour. Never mind. There's no need to send me any choccy. Just send if someone pm's you.

[Olegya199]

Send me all the chocolate.

And you will then send a tile to each of the WO's members?

No.
Send it to me.
All.

Okay, I'm ready to send you some piece chocolates. But I wouldn't want it all to go to you alone...
And how do I send it to you?   I'm from the Ukraine.

Dude it was an attempt at humour. Never mind. There's no need to send me any choccy. Just send if someone pm's you.

Now I feel like Sheldon... 

[JayJuanGee]

Looks like everybody here who properly invested in bitcoin before 2017 have around at least 50 and possibly closer to 100 btc while other late people who started to accumulate after 2017 have something between 5 and 15.

Makes sense since btc is now at x10 of the 2014's ATH.

Being early pays.

*pussies who stare at their monitors but never buy will never get close to these levels

If the latecomers play their cards right they'll have an opportunity to increase their btc stash by %200 - %500. All it takes is shorting the parabolic at the right time.

I agreed with you until you got to the last paragraph.

When you say shorting, you are NOT really saying shorting are you?, but instead you are suggesting closing a long (by selling) and then buying back lower, right?

Of course, I personally don't really agree with playing around very BIG with those kinds of strategies that attempt to time the market and figuring when to get back in, and even though closing longs and buying back lower would be safer than shorting, I suppose that they are similar concepts depending on whether margin is used.  

If you use margin, then of course, you would be shorting in the traditional sense of the term, but also risking losing all of the BTC that you accumulated if the price moves against you, meaning continues to go up.

Of course. I never did a leveraged trade in my life. Shorting means selling on spot for me. It was a figure of speech. Probably shouldn't have used it like that.

Just so we are all on the same page, it is better to either say that you are closing a long or that you are selling and hoping to buy back at a lower price.  You are not employing more sophisticated (or more complicated) financial tools.  At least, not until you get more brave (or greedy... hahahahahaha).

You know how parabolic moves happen. They happen in a very short time scale very fast.

We know how they happen "after the fact," but we cannot really know with any kind of precision while they are happening.  Sure, in the last run to $19,666, you would have been  o.k. to sell anywhere between $13k and $19,666.... and then buy back anywhere between $3,124 and $7k.... so there ended up being two really big difficulties about knowing when to sell and how much, and then knowing when to buy back and how much.

In 2016/17, there were a lot of people who were thinking like you and many of those people thought that they could see parabolic moves, and ended up selling between $4k and $8k, and that might not have worked out too well for them, if they kept watching what happened after that, and then trying to buy back, and not really being able to... because in the summer/fall of 2018 there were about 5 or 6 revisits to $6k before she finally broke below $6k.

So, yeah, sometimes afterwards, you can really see it, but if you are trying to see it while it is happening, you might see it too early, because there are a whole hell of a lot of fake outs along the way both in terms of when the top is over and then where the buying back correction is going to end.. including the fact that some of the buying correction might not end up going much if any lower than the points that you ended up selling.

It would be dumb not to take action against a movement like this.

It is only "dumb" when you are looking at the matter in retrospect.  I am not telling you what to do because you can do whatever the fuck you want, but there are a lot of people who have done hell-a-well in bitcoin through largely ONLY applying BTC accumulation strategies, and when they sell BTC, they are actually selling for good rather than hoping to buy back lower... in other words, they have already gone up a couple of cycles, so whatever portion of their BTC that they are shaving off is merely just to buy whatever they want, whether it is dental implants or a castle or hookers, lambos and blow or some other item(s), and they might end up selling a large chunk of their BTC at certain points, such as 15% or 25% of their stash, but at the same time feeling that they still have a decent stake and are willing to let the remaining 75% to 85% just ride for a few more years.. and maybe cashing out a small amount more if they need it before the next exponential rise.

So if you have been through a couple of bubbles and your average purchase price is around $100, then you might not care too much if you sell some at $4k or at $10k... even if you might have sold a bit already at $17k.

You also should never sell if it is going up slowly. (unless you don't need to hodl anymore lol)

Seems to me that if you let your BTC accumulation ride for long enough, it might not matter so much anymore at what point you shave off some profits.   But, yeah, of course, we see some patterns that are likely to repeat, which is gradual price rises that become steeper and steeper and steeper, and at some point it becomes clear that a blow off top is coming... but it still remains unclear regarding how certain is that blow off top.. you might get lucky, and you might not.... you feeling lucky, punk..? (#no homo)

I remain leery of any strategy that tries to go too hard towards locking in supposedly "sure" profits that involves playing around with very much of the BTC stash.  Yeah, maybe playing around with a bit of the stash (such as 25%), but I would be quite nervous if I were to sell off large amounts of my BTC stash waiting when to buy back in, and I personally would rather just ride the price down while HODLing and only shave off small portions of my stash in order to use those proceeds to buy back.... There just have been too many times, when the price is going up to be tempted into believing that the top is near or soon and it ends up being no fucking where near to the top or soon.  I personally sleep better as a mostly HODLer, and I suppose that has to do with the fact that I also already have money in fiat related investments, too, even though you might believe that it is a bad practice to end up riding the BTC price down through a correction that ends up being in the 85% territory (retrospectively, finding that out.. even though you are trying to suggest that it is more clear than it likely is regarding when the BTC prices are going to go down and how far).

[Olegya199]

Listen guys, but some users buy goods on this forum somehow staying anonymous, or am I wrong ?

[Gyrsur]

maybe a needed correction. let us become patient again. it was a wild ride so far in 2020.

[Gyrsur]

Listen guys, but some users buy goods on this forum somehow staying anonymous, or am I wrong ?

hm, never have attended to this sort of business. in the early times if ppl bought mining equipment and stuff they communicated via PGP encrypted PM's and have had revealed some sort of receiving addresses to other ppl.

EDIT: try to send theymos some of your chocolate and see how he will react. he have never attended to some sort of meeting or anything else of the early Bitcoin community activities as I know so far.  

[JayJuanGee]

Sub $10,000 

I suppose we were due a correction but it really feels better seeing the price over $10,000. The inevitable is only being delayed any way, moon in the next 18 months

Everyone should be in accumulation mode before the halving, except addicted shorters who don't know about it. If you ask them they will either answer: "Nope, I didn't hear about it. 10 000 is a nice number and I can make calculations easier, so it is the time to short." Or, "Oh, yeah... I remeber reading about the halving and someone in twitter said it was already priced in. 10 000 is a nice number and I can make calculations easier, so it is the time to short." Exhibit A is one of the many newbies like whiteboy, who was posting about his shorts at 6.7K. We didn't hear from him since then, so I can only imagine how his shorts played out so far. He's been probably liquated 10 times so far, but if he makes a successful short now, I am sure he will come here to brag about it.  

Exactamente, ivomm.

Those shorts of whiteboy sounded so good in theory, and he even had a few lucky ones, so his credibility seemed to have gone up, and then he lost one and then another and then I recall that he was expecting the price to go all the way up to the lower $9ks before his next short, and that one must NOT have worked out too well.

Theoretically sounds good to be shorting, but does not always work out so well... just like jonoiv was seemingly so goddamned smart and smug about selling after nearly a 2x price increase in the lower $6ks in early May 2019.. and so he had been waiting for 7 months to get back in, and when prices were going back down to $6,424 in December, he was starting to feel relatively smug, again, but that did not work out too well in terms of continued down momentum that did not want to continue and did not even get down to his original sell price.. but he would not have bought back in, anyhow, because he was waiting for unrealistic prices.... and of course, he wants to make some profits on his earlier decision to sell in the lower $6ks after a 2x price increase... .

Others do that too, and then they try to reframe what they did.. .and yeah, it is difficult to be timing these matters..and better to continue to prepare for up and don't be selling too much of lil fiend with expectations to buy back at lower prices, especially in a seemingly bullmarket.

[Swordsoffreedom]

maybe a needed correction. let us become patient again. it was a wild ride so far in 2020.

Look at mine: keep kalm and Hold on...

I entered the market in the first week of January with a certain amount of budget.
This is my H4 short time trading history, till now everything is going fine.
BTC H4 large correction already has been started most probably we will hit 12k after a short break.
If you are a smart guy do your own speculations, don't depends on other and don't follow anyone blindly.

[JayJuanGee]

Looks like everybody here who properly invested in bitcoin before 2017 have around at least 50 and possibly closer to 100 btc while other late people who started to accumulate after 2017 have something between 5 and 15.

Makes sense since btc is now at x10 of the 2014's ATH.

Being early pays.

That's a big old assumption. Those amounts even in 2013/14 were still a few tens of thousands of dollars depending on when you arrived. Not many people out there have that available to lock away for several years with no guarantee of where it'll end up.

I also believe that it is NOT a good strategy to blow your whole wadd, anyhow, even if you had
$30k that you might be able to invest over a few year timeline.

So, you can look at the price between 2013 and 2016 and even consider that some guys (and gal) who got in during that time period, might have taken a few years to buy in, so their average price per BTC might kind of fluctuate and even how much that they had available to buy BTC each month may have varied.  Maybe some months they had $200 that they could invest, and other months they had $1,500, and maybe over several years they might have accumulated a decent chunk of BTC, but NOT as many BTC as you might presume them to have been able to accumulate.  You have to account for some mistakes along the way too... even if it is not the mistakes of buying into shitcoins, there can be other ways to make mistakes and lose money too by selling some at the wrong time or even getting scared and failing to buy during certain periods of time and then buying some dumb consumption good, such as a motorcycle, rather than buying BTC... things like that.

[Olegya199]

Listen guys, but some users buy goods on this forum somehow staying anonymous, or am I wrong ?

hm, never have attended to this sort of business. in the early times if ppl bought mining equipment and stuff they communicated via PGP encrypted PM's and have had revealed some sort of receiving addresses to other ppl.

EDIT: try to send theymos some of your chocolate and see how he will react. he have never attended to some sort of meeting or anything else of the early Bitcoin community activities as I know so far.  

I don't know how ridiculous this may seem to you, but I once met information that theymos was named Michael. And I think I even saw his parents' address. I'm not sure if that's 100% accurate information, but it was very similar...

[JayJuanGee]

I doubt that very many long term bitcoiners really agree with any of the pushes to make cash illegal.. or to discourage the use of cash.

Why not? We already have Petro, the Chinese almost ready to launch digital Yuan, the Japanese are brainstorming whether to have a digital yen and other Governments might also follow. Almost everything has gone digital now  

Those systems are tracking you.  There are a decent number of people who do not want to be tracked, so even if it is happening more and more frequently, there are going to continue to be people who are choosing to use money that is more private, in certain circumstances, and if that money is available to them.

Of course, if such money is not available to them, then they are going to have to figure out ways to be more creative to attempt to either have plausible deniability or take too many chances of being traced in too many ways that they would prefer NOT to be.

One of the values of bitcoin to be attempting to take measures in the privacy direction, but it is going to be a bit harder to be private, if your only way into bitcoin is through some tracking mechanism and then you are not engaging in practices to cause the traceability of your coins more difficult.

[Olegya199]

And yet, maybe there is a person in the forum who could be a mediator between us? There is no way that this task could not be solved!

[JayJuanGee]

First haiku today?
We goin' up or we goin' down?
Uncertain Sunday?

Whichever direction we go, do we really care?
1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin

Yes.... We do care.    

Whichever direction we go, do we really care?
1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin

Yes but 2 Bitcoin better than 1 Bitcoin.
I'm getting way too nervous for my health, so I BTFD at $9870. First buy this year, and the highest price I ever payed.
For some reason I sleep fine when I'm holding BTC and the price tanks 50% but get very nervous about missing the train. Anyway, that's taken care of now.

Hopefully, everything will average out in a decent way for you hodl_2015, and if you have a long enough time horizon for your BTC investment, at least a few years, then it is quite likely it will not matter too much, even if your purchase of BTC today brought up your average buy price for your BTC stash a little bit. 

[Gyrsur]

wow, the FX markets have opened since 22:00 UTC after the weekend and since then the price did very well. weekends are for amateurs meanwhile.

[marcus_of_augustus]

And yet, maybe there is a person in the forum who could be a mediator between us? There is no way that this task could not be solved!

... use a dropbox.

Like put your chocolates in a railway station locker, downtown Wuhan for example. If anyone wants them they can ask for the combination.

[Icygreen]

After traveling through Ho Chi Minh city and especially now onto Bali, I'm starting to get the sense that people are treating the virus as a big nothing burger. Ok, maybe not nothing but certainly not more serious than SARS was.
More face masks being worn in HCMC but no checks or info at the airport and even many of the staff weren't wearing masks.
Now in Bali, it seems no fucks are given, no masks, nothing, just lots of whatevs.
At the airport upon arrival I had to fill out a card that asked if I was sick. Sign it and trade it for another card stamped health certificate. No temperature checks.
So what's the chances the media and markets have this thing blown up to generate maximum fears?

I did see one couple that looked a bit odd. They got a lot of funny looks and a few of us snapping shots.

I'm not gonna pretend that this isn't happening or be insensitive, just relaying sentiment from the ground level as I had passed through my own fears of what this virus could mean personally to now feeling calmer in general.

Corn still kinda sideways at 10k, all is good this week.

[gentlemand]

I'm not gonna pretend that this isn't happening or be insensitive, just relaying sentiment from the ground level as I had passed through my own fears of what this virus could mean personally to now feeling calmer in general.

Can we get this optimistic/realist creep removed from the thread?

This post needs to come down before too many people read it.