I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333
hodl for 300k
I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..
The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..
I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..
Nice prediction, interesting to hear you think it'll go to $300K next cycle. With most people believing that prices will only go 5-10x from ATH ($10K0-200K) until topping out, given the similarities with the recent 2012 style correction, I think we could be leading up to a much larger bubble top than 2018. I don't just mean higher, I mean more parabolic and for longer than 2017. Think 2012 leading into 2013 with a harsh "fake top" correction around $100K. Fiat collapse style parabolic, all the signs are there to take Bitcoin to an incomparable value with fiat.
I'm not sure it will go to 300k but I don't doubt it..
I get the 300k number very simply by comparing the previous ATH of 20000 to the one before that which was 1200.. If it does the same thing again..
20,000/1200 = X/20,000 = 333,333.333333
It would go to 333k just by repeating the past.. But it does not necessarily have to exactly repeat the past.. Could be higher or lower..
I really like this Etoro commercial actually..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSnAUHTyksYThat commercial is about exactly the reason I HODL, but if you look at the entire price history of BTC, it has done that same thing over and over again many more times than even the commercial shows, further reinforcing the pattern..
My long term BTC HODL TA is very simple and my short term TA is extremely short term being more based on instinct and watching the books live than anything the charts have done..
The way I actually like to "trade" I don't use charts much at all, but rather watch the books.. But I prefer to trade smaller/medium sized markets that are not on too many exchanges so you can see the entire market by watching only 1 2 or 3 exchanges..
I haven't really "traded" BTC/Fiat all that much.. Maybe only around 500 trades mostly on Huobi and some on Gdax..
Man I loved Huobi so much with it's 0% trade fees.. So perfect for my trading style of just trying to scalp small changes..
Hated Gdax with it's high fees and insane market maker bots that I couldn't really compete with..
It was pretty easy trading BTC at that time too when okcoin, huobi, and btcc were obviously leading the market so you didn't have to watch the rest of the exchanges really..
It's also almost cheating to trade a bull market like that, lol..
I don't even know what exchanges I can trade anymore..
Observing BTC looking fine at 10158..