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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26391862 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Last of the V8s
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February 15, 2020, 06:43:07 PM

perhaps there was just too much inventory over here and it needed running down
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This is not OK.


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February 15, 2020, 06:44:50 PM

Arriemoller
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Cлaвa Укpaїнi!


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February 15, 2020, 06:46:54 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

I want to touch on supply chain disruption.  That lunar new year holiday is a real thing.  It is well known in the West that China basically shuts down for two weeks this time of year, so enterprises will have planned ahead and stocked up on critical parts ahead of time, therefore we will be somewhat insulated from supply chain shocks until (the end of the holiday + the proverbial slow boat shipping time).  It is expensive to actually shutter and restart production lines so manufacturers will first slow production to husband rare parts while allowing employees to take elective time off and performing maintenance tasks on parts of their line.

However, over the next month or so, the boats will fail to arrive and the parts will run out.


something something

profit?

I was gonna order some new clasps for my online shop from China, answer? no can do.
So they cant sell and /or ship and therefore have to close down the factory for the time being, and I cant sell in my online shop because I cant get any deliveries and the ships get less to ship. Where in this chain of events do you see any profit?

And also, zweiundvierzig doesn't rhyme with blue.

BitcoinGirl.Club
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February 15, 2020, 06:49:51 PM


Ei!
Observing @ $9,903 while prying for Liverpool to score.
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February 15, 2020, 06:59:57 PM

Where in this chain of events do you see any profit?

Bitcoin is long apocalypse brother
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February 15, 2020, 07:05:29 PM

#random Anyone hear from The Mayor lately ? Hoping they are still hanging in there, and getting better.

toxic also still MIA

I miss those guys

I was hoping you had heard from the Mayor Bob
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February 15, 2020, 07:07:28 PM

My neighbor asked me what's the latest on the virus armageddon and how to build a bunker.
I told him to google bitcoin price speculation.
He was like... WTF?....
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February 15, 2020, 07:45:17 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), jojo69 (1), LUCKMCFLY (1)

I want to touch on supply chain disruption.  That lunar new year holiday is a real thing.  It is well known in the West that China basically shuts down for two weeks this time of year, so enterprises will have planned ahead and stocked up on critical parts ahead of time, therefore we will be somewhat insulated from supply chain shocks until (the end of the holiday + the proverbial slow boat shipping time).  It is expensive to actually shutter and restart production lines so manufacturers will first slow production to husband rare parts while allowing employees to take elective time off and performing maintenance tasks on parts of their line.

However, over the next month or so, the boats will fail to arrive and the parts will run out.


something something

profit?


We (our import company in Peru) still have not heard anything back from our Chinese ball bearing suppliers.  China now supplies us with some 25% ($-value) of our items.  We started asking them a few days ago, and none of the three have answered.

We will likely have to go with more Korean product, but many of our customers there in Peru are now addicted to low prices. 

Yet we have customers who buy *special pieces* (items that ONLY Chinese plants make), they may be screwed when inventories in Peru run out.  New metal bearings are not the kind of product that is easy to just "start making" either, as they are precision parts made of special steel.

If this whole Covid-19 gets worse, there are many supply chains that will be disrupted, with high (but hard to quantify) costs.
LUCKMCFLY
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February 15, 2020, 07:52:49 PM

Many have spoken badly about Bitcoin, but they do not see its history, some compare it to gold, they have called it Digital Gold, it is well known that in many countries it is used as a Shelter of Value ..

Quote
The #Bitcoin price never experienced a bear market according to this chart.

$BTC yearly candles 👇🏻



Source: https://twitter.com/themooncarl/status/1228656559913406465
estenity
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February 15, 2020, 08:29:14 PM

IOTA blockchain attacked, has been stopped for investigation.

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1228567364553175040

https://dailyhodl.com/2020/02/14/cryptocurrency-iota-attacked-881-million-network-paused-as-investigation-into-stolen-funds-begins/
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February 15, 2020, 08:34:04 PM

the fuck is a WAXP?
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February 15, 2020, 08:38:08 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), d_eddie (1)



Currently, playing 'when to buy into more BTC game'...thinking I'll wait for a 'weekend weak dump' maybe?

Those currently who know my 'track record' on timing such, be sure to adjust your purchases accordingly, so you can

'mock' my 'timing' later.

(Hey, the wrong price at the wrong time is how I roll. On the other hand, if you HODL long enough ..it does not matter) Smiley

Brad

Well, I recall that you were selling items from your attic, and so you bought some BTC in parts of 2019 with that generated extra money.  

What is the source of the extra money that you have this time?  

Is it just extra savings that you have accumulated from your regular income over the past year or so?  

You did not want to buy BTC with that money earlier in 2019 as that money was coming in, but now, after BTC has gone up about 60% over the past two months you want to buy more BTC with that extra money that had been flowing in through the year?  The upwards BTC price movement, currently, is causing you to feel that you are underinvested in BTC because you are thinking that you might be able to get rich quick.. over the next 1-2 years?

I am not going to say that you are going to be wrong in that kind of 1-2 year period, even if it is unclear about whether you will benefit in the short run or have better buying opportunities in the coming weeks or months before the halvening.

These days, I prefer to think about any new money that goes into bitcoin to have at least a 4 year investment time horizon.  Of course, no problem if BTC


go shooting up from here, so then you would not have to stick with the 4 year investment time horizon thinking because once your injection of value is in profits you have options to pull it out at any time, but anyhow, since you and I should be in a similar position regarding having had already largely accumulated most of our BTC,  it seems strange to me that someone who had already largely accumulated in the 3 digits would be experiencing any kind of meaningful FOMO feelings after about a 60% BTC price appreciation in the past two months, not withstanding any inclination just to do a bit of dollar cost averaging investing from time to time, as money comes in, as heslo's above response suggests.

Caretaker for the estate. Money passes to me, I get some each month from the estate, I then watch manger of the estate and keep majority to pass on to nieces and nephews..that kinda

thing. The whole get around IRS thing using estate planning. Thus enough monthly income, that the crypto is not needed in retirement anymore. Or at least till we have another recession

or some such, thus the Bitcoin buying and the long HODL bet on such.

Also, attic mining! Smiley

I should call the nieces and nephews as I look at all the junk I likely can't toss (worth something) but likely will die the attic/storage. Thus call them up and say, "Come and

get YOUR crap out of my attic!" That would be the logical solution on stuff I'll likely hoard till then anyway. They inherit it then. Just do so now! They can sell it on eBay!

Just move the process up a little bit. That or me sell on eBay. (so boring to do).

Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.

I was pleased with sell when it went down to like to a low of $3,400 per BTC then. Er, now, not so much Sad But 4 BTC back is better than the full 13 BTC down from that sell!

So anyway only 9 BTC down from original scream like a 9-year-old girl sobbing sale back then. Thus I HODL for less drama now. Smiley

I also can't let go of the fact that IF BTC and decentralized crypto dies on the vine and is taken over by banks (the blockchain) and such...I don't imagine fees for banks will go down..even

though for every fee still would be the top 1/2 of 1% or whatever usual $$$ ripoff.

With that kind of centralized control of crypto along with the current banking and finance system still in place it

is hard to imagine a world NOT full of Banker/Elite Trillionaires..in about 10-15 years. This assumes IF like that 1 BTC whale and you can move 1 billion in BTC for $26 bucks.

Imagine banks and the current elite controlling all that centralized blockchain coin but still getting current legacy fees like traditional banks on such.

Give that 100 years and we'd be under Royalty and everyone would be 'serfs' and onward and upward into feudalism again, IMHO. It would be bad indeed.

I'm 65 years old. I maybe, if extremely lucky, live another 25 years and be 'pinching' cute nursing aides in the Nursing Home, by that point in time.

So WTF, take a chance and HODL already. I may NEVER get that full 13 BTC back that I am currently down 9 BTC...but I'm trying to nibble it away.

I SHOULD dump my sh*tcoins and BSV and BCH, that fell from the sky on their forks and make the last 9-12 BTC up that way. But currently confused

with those sh*tcoins all pumping, big time! Some of which like LISK and SIACOIN I'm utterly befuddled on. But that is the other option of my plan to 'recover' those

last 9 BTC. But in 20/20 hindsight, indeed $3,400 coin was dire, so I should pat myself on back and that I only sold 13 BTC.  So 9 BTC to go till recovery. Smiley

Knock Wood! I am buying dust here now that it is under 10k again, so it seems the BTC flavored kool-aid drinking I did in 2013 still has some magical effect. Smiley

later

Brad
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February 15, 2020, 08:41:34 PM

the fuck is a WAXP?
(after some googling) it was almost $3 on jan 9 2018, and has been a few cents since then.
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February 15, 2020, 08:49:46 PM

the fuck is a WAXP?
(after some googling) it was almost $3 on jan 9 2018, and has been a few cents since then.

pumped from .0000291 to .0000955 in the last day whatever it is

dem's wages
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February 15, 2020, 08:53:59 PM

the fuck is a WAXP?

Novo's puppy.

the funny thing is, it all depends on how much free cash you have.
Example: let's say you (or Novo, lol) bought $10 mil of a s--t token. the token went from $3 to 1c, so your stake is worth almost nothing.
No matter, you buy another $10mil worth at 1c (there are enough tokens to do that), s--t token goes to 8c, you sell at 7c and MADE 50mil in profit.
The above scenario is purely hypothetical, of course.
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February 15, 2020, 08:55:12 PM

Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.

Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?

Did you really think at the time that Bitcoin was going lower? Or was it for something else?
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February 15, 2020, 09:04:24 PM
Last edit: February 15, 2020, 09:18:20 PM by jojo69
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.

Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?

Did you really think at the time that Bitcoin was going lower? Or was it for something else?

He has admitted before that he panicked like a little girl.

his words

I get the impression that he is perhaps an older gentleman, I can see the allure of getting "something" out faced with the prospect of getting "nothing" out or waiting till you are old-as-fuck...

I am in absolutely no position to judge, having abjectly failed to harvest any benefit from the last bubble.  I actually typed "parabolic-er-er-er" at one point yet failed to sell due to greedfear.

The Mayor and I, leaning against each other sweating, horking into our NASA logo barf bags, hodling resolutely through the peak...

Emotions man, strong stuff.
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February 15, 2020, 09:19:42 PM
Last edit: February 15, 2020, 09:48:40 PM by AlcoHoDL
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.

Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?

Did you really think at the time that Bitcoin was going lower? Or was it for something else?

He has admitted before that he panicked like a little girl.

his words

I get the impression that he is perhaps an older gentleman, I can see the allure of getting "something" out faced with the prospect of getting "nothing" out

My way of thinking is that, if the following things are true:

1. You only invest what you can afford to lose,
2. Your quality of life is already at a decent level,
3. You understand Bitcoin tech,
4. You are not greedy,

...then you don't panic easily. You can HoDL down to even under $1k and not flinch. "Let it go to zero. I'm already doing OK, I don't really need it." That's what I say to myself when there's a big dip, and that's because of (1), (2), and (4). And if there's a big dip, I try to buy more coins, because of (3), but always respecting (1).

If you get scared easily and chicken out at big dips, you're doing it wrong.
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February 15, 2020, 09:22:07 PM

Bleh, he did what he thought he had to do at the time. Taking into account what % of his stash does that 13BTC (now reduced to 9) represent and his early retirement circumstances is essential to understand it. He has previously given enough figures to accurately know it. Retrospectively it is easy to say he could have done better... but hedging, when needed, is always expensive. In the big scheme of things, it won't matter THAT MUCH. He will do *WELL*.

Searing is not stupid and he will do well as he was *way far* from going all out. It is imposible to be right all the time and for all of actions, more so without being able to predict the future.
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February 15, 2020, 09:23:58 PM
Merited by P_Shep (1)

Genuinely just saw this tweet Cheesy


@alistairmilne
Pro tip: don't take your private keys on a boat...

https://twitter.com/alistairmilne/status/1228729804565905408?s=21
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