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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26392021 times)
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cAPSLOCK
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February 15, 2020, 09:29:42 PM

I want to touch on supply chain disruption.  That lunar new year holiday is a real thing.  It is well known in the West that China basically shuts down for two weeks this time of year, so enterprises will have planned ahead and stocked up on critical parts ahead of time, therefore we will be somewhat insulated from supply chain shocks until (the end of the holiday + the proverbial slow boat shipping time).  It is expensive to actually shutter and restart production lines so manufacturers will first slow production to husband rare parts while allowing employees to take elective time off and performing maintenance tasks on parts of their line.

However, over the next month or so, the boats will fail to arrive and the parts will run out.


something something

profit?


We (our import company in Peru) still have not heard anything back from our Chinese ball bearing suppliers.  China now supplies us with some 25% ($-value) of our items.  We started asking them a few days ago, and none of the three have answered.

We will likely have to go with more Korean product, but many of our customers there in Peru are now addicted to low prices. 

Yet we have customers who buy *special pieces* (items that ONLY Chinese plants make), they may be screwed when inventories in Peru run out.  New metal bearings are not the kind of product that is easy to just "start making" either, as they are precision parts made of special steel.

If this whole Covid-19 gets worse, there are many supply chains that will be disrupted, with high (but hard to quantify) costs.


Absolutely.  Even the best case scenario (which is about what you are describing) does not bode well for the world economy.  Consumer electronics are another area that have become essentially woven into our social structure and the production of these things is about to be seriously disrupted.
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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February 15, 2020, 09:51:32 PM

I SHOULD dump my sh*tcoins and BSV and BCH, that fell from the sky on their forks and make the last 9-12 BTC up that way. But currently confused

with those sh*tcoins all pumping, big time! Some of which like LISK and SIACOIN I'm utterly befuddled on. But that is the other option of my plan to 'recover' those

heh yeah. im doing taxes and see the odd sh*tcoins that have just been sitting there doing nothing but generally losing value. against btc anyway.

ive forgotten why i even bought a few of odd bags.

the shame.. what was i thinking???
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February 15, 2020, 10:16:25 PM

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v1.full.pdf
Quote
ACE2 Expression in Kidney and Testis May Cause Kidney and Testis Damage After 2019-nCoV Infection

control the population!

That's a right kick in the teeth
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February 15, 2020, 10:24:27 PM

My current TA for today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvZ7K_0_SiY
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February 15, 2020, 11:04:26 PM
Last edit: February 15, 2020, 11:26:06 PM by jojo69

horsey faced lesbian?











totally get the bit about Koo Stark though...what a fucking wanker
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February 15, 2020, 11:19:33 PM

horsey faced lesbian?

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February 16, 2020, 12:04:30 AM
Merited by P_Shep (1)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v1.full.pdf
Quote
ACE2 Expression in Kidney and Testis May Cause Kidney and Testis Damage After 2019-nCoV Infection

control the population!

That's a right kick in the teeth

People don't realize one thing: Mother nature doesn't f-ck around.
All stories about lab escape are irrelevant from a historical perspective.
We, humans, exist as a species for only 180K years, give or take, a very "young" species.
There are lots of us and we differ very little (0.1% or so at the DNA level).
Read the story of bananas. Once there is a dominant homogeneous species, it almost always gets wiped out, like prior banana "version".
What i am getting at is this: as planet is warming up (it does not matter due to humans or not) and our population grows and becomes more urban, further "weird" epidemics are inevitable.
We already got HIV, Corona, zika (affecting brain development), brain eating amoeba in fresh water, antibiotic resistance, etc.
I am afraid that we, humans, would be culled, which would suck big time.
As I was thinking about this, I remembered the "Children of men". Maybe artists/authors have a pre-cognition of some sort.

This all is too sad to think about, let's celebrate life which we are still having.
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February 16, 2020, 12:11:51 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Torque (1)

Anyway, I got back about 4 BTC buying it back from original 13 BTC I sold at $3,695 on 12/24/18 I think it was.
-ol
Brad, not trying to rub things in. But I'm curious how a savvy BTC guy like you who has been into BTC as long as you have sold near the exact bottom of the market?

Did you really think at the time that Bitcoin was going lower? Or was it for something else?

In hindsight it made sense. I was in HODL mode from real low (2013) till the ATH (what was it like 18k) and watching it go down to $3,965 seemed prudent to do.

I 'think' that the price went down to actually $3,400 per BTC. So again, with much, crying and tantrums like a 9-year-old child I sold.

So at least I learned my 'limits'.

Also, I had my original 100 BTC in 2015. I coulda/should just have 'stayed put' Smiley

But I did the whole ASIC mining and selling above and altcoins and the rest. If I sold BCH and BSV and the other forked

coins from this mess, that did not exist in 2015, I'd actually be ahead. Not sold such yet.

So with the above Altcoins etc all made off this 2015 move/groove/and hustle mining etc from 2015 till 2/14/19 when I stopped mining completely.

I would be right back at 100 BTC or a few coins over. Mostly due to BCH and BSV etc.

So what I SHOULD DO and am simply stalling is 'sell' those sh*coins to get back to 100 BTC and 2015 in that manner.

Of course in the last 3 weeks, most of my, I mean, really, sh*coins like LISK and Siacoin have doubled or more. Indeed all have. So I am a bit befuddled on how or

when to pull the trigger on this. One thing about Bitcoin and Crypto you usually look at the situation of price/buy a miner/hodl/ or whatever until it gets down to BTC and

Crypto's most basic question. Do I buy and HODL? Do I gamble on Equipment? Do I get this sh*tcoin or mine such or the other?

It is quite binary. Always distilled to one choice or the other choice.

So it goes. On all life-changing actions with the above BTC/Crypto/Sh*tcoins, I am fairly confident If I posted on Facebook my choices by flipping a coin from 2013 till now

I'd be no worse off then the half-ass guessing I've done in the past.

So now it is a fairly easy choice. I have narrowed my self-introspection on this in the following format.

My main 3 guessing games with BTC/Crypto at any given time/day/moment/and or year. Smiley

(1) BTC will (due to adoption level) drop to 1/2 of whatever the daily price is at the time you contemplate these  3 views. Again, the adoption level reached. And now at say

4x the price of gold would at this level act as a 'traditional stock market' investment on return year by year from this point on...ie...modest boring returns.

(2) BTC, taking whatever the current price is, as you ponder these questions. Will now, again due to adoption being reached say, from this price point on now goes

sideways in price and acts like a traditional investment stock market return year by year from this point onward..ie...modest boring returns.

(3) Same thought experiment as above with current price, whatever it is when you ponder these 3 coping mechanisms.  So this being the 3rd choice and current

price of BTC as you ponder this, BTC does its historical thing, price-wise and goes 'parabolic' and up 4x/8x/12x/18x current price, etc because of adoption as a store of value and use

in these uncertain times is NOT met yet. And BTC/Crypto will take on the adoption of gold or beyond as a store of value in the (coming IMHO) trying times. Why the heck not?

So for me, when it gets weird, I think of the 3 things above at whatever particular hour/day/time/year and/or BTC price. In that I've been in since 2013 and such, it seems much more

soothing to look at the 3 guesses above and just HODL. Anyway, how I make lemonade when BTC and crypto tend to speculatively go bat sh*t crazy using no logic I can fathom.

So the only real issue I have not DIRECTLY addressed yet (coward that I am) is when I am gonna dump BCH and BSV and my sh*tcoins to get back to a 100 BTC or so.

In that, in the last month, they have gone up 2x and 3x respectively on everything, so I am currently on the fence, on when to dump and convert such to BTC.

But I've made my peace with the great scheme of thing using my 3 part guessing game above. So again, everyone stumbles, it is how you pick your

self up and/or is the risk/reward worth it?

If the whole open-source decentralized BTC/Crypto universe goes *poof*. Replaced by National coins or Banker coins with the usual spin.

If they win this fight for the future of BTC/Crypto at least I can say I fought the good fight. Everyone has a limit they won't be pushed past. Above is my 'line in the sand' and

funky way of looking at stuff day to day as to not be 'too crazy' with this whole BTC/Crypto Speculation that I am involved in since 2013.

What we do on WO and in life with HODL'ing is called "Speculation". My status as of now. Of course, I cracked once and could crack again and sell some BTC. But for such to

occur I can state with absolute fact, that it is gonna have to be well, well, BELOW the $3,965 BTC price I cracked at last time. As to the rest of the above. That is why I call it a 'coping

mechanism' for something to do/justify be it wrong/or right.....guidelines.

So anyway, my 2 Shatoshi's worth on how I'm looking at things these days. Likely all is more than a bit delusional, but the framework works for me in both the dumping

of BTC be the price too low and I hope the same logic works when the price is too high by most accounts. Chump or Champ or Boom or Doom, we will be the first to know!

later

Brad
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This is not OK.


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February 16, 2020, 12:38:07 AM

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v1.full.pdf
Quote
ACE2 Expression in Kidney and Testis May Cause Kidney and Testis Damage After 2019-nCoV Infection

control the population!

That's a right kick in the teeth

People don't realize one thing: Mother nature doesn't f-ck around.
All stories about lab escape are irrelevant from a historical perspective.
We, humans, exist as a species for only 180K years, give or take, a very "young" species.
There are lots of us and we differ very little (0.1% or so at the DNA level).
Read the story of bananas. Once there is a dominant homogeneous species, it almost always gets wiped out, like prior banana "version".
What i am getting at is this: as planet is warming up (it does not matter due to humans or not) and our population grows and becomes more urban, further "weird" epidemics are inevitable.
We already got HIV, Corona, zika (affecting brain development), brain eating amoeba in fresh water, antibiotic resistance, etc.
I am afraid that we, humans, would be culled, which would suck big time.
As I was thinking about this, I remembered the "Children of men". Maybe artists/authors have a pre-cognition of some sort.

This all is too sad to think about, let's celebrate life which we are still having.

This is pretty much how I see things. How long were dinosaurs around for? Millions of years. We're but a tick of a clock in comparison. Something will wipe us out well before the dinosaurs, and it'll inevitably be our own undoing. Whether that be climate change, genetically engineered bio-weapon, AI robots gone rogue, general war, over population, genetic engineering gone wrong, inadvertent EMP, and any number of other possibilities. We'll be lucky if we get another 100K years.
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February 16, 2020, 12:38:33 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

^

I didn't want to say it (the actual BTC count) but Searing himself did it again... With almost 100BTC he still have, no one can dare to say he did not do well. He just secured some profits when he thought he would MAYBE need the FIAT to last till retirement payments come. A somewhat small (around 10%) percentual amount. And probably that made him be a stronger holder with the rest of his more than healthy stash.

So, considering it all, he is way far from being a "bottom seller" but a strong hodler... even if he did sell "some" near the bottom.
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February 16, 2020, 12:46:38 AM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2)

This all is too sad to think about, let's celebrate life which we are still having.

I spent a whole day watching nature documentaries a while back and came away with a feeling of overwhelming pointlessness. All anything alive wants to do is eat and fuck. It's not exactly meaningful. Rocks probably have more enriching inner lives.

That day I stopped worrying about the fate of the planet and refilled my fridge with CFCs.

There's an entire universe out there with other potentialities. There could be trillions of races of golden gods right now knocking out lovely watercolours and being nice to each other. We're nowt but noisy dust.
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February 16, 2020, 01:07:25 AM
Last edit: February 16, 2020, 01:51:47 AM by strawbs
Merited by xhomerx10 (1)

This all is too sad to think about, let's celebrate life which we are still having.

I spent a whole day watching nature documentaries a while back and came away with a feeling of overwhelming pointlessness. All anything alive wants to do is eat and fuck. It's not exactly meaningful. Rocks probably have more enriching inner lives.

That day I stopped worrying about the fate of the planet and refilled my fridge with CFCs.

There's an entire universe out there with other potentialities. There could be trillions of races of golden gods right now knocking out lovely watercolours and being nice to each other. We're nowt but noisy dust.


[Large corporate boardroom filled with suited executives]

Exec #1 (Graham Chapman): Item six on the agenda: “The Meaning of Life.” Now uh, Harry, you’ve had some thoughts on this.

Exec #2 (Michael Palin): Yeah, I’ve had a team working on this over the past few weeks, and what we’ve come up with can be reduced to two fundamental concepts. One: People aren’t wearing enough hats. Two: Matter is energy. In the universe there are many energy fields which we cannot normally perceive. Some energies have a spiritual source which act upon a person’s soul. However, this “soul” does not exist ab initio as orthodox Christianity teaches; it has to be brought into existence by a process of guided self-observation. However, this is rarely achieved owing to man’s unique ability to be distracted from spiritual matters by everyday trivia.

Exec #3 (Terry Jones): What was that about hats again?
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February 16, 2020, 01:11:44 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

If I sold BCH and BSV and the other forked

coins from this mess, that did not exist in 2015, I'd actually be ahead. Not sold such yet.


Well just my 2 cents, but if I were you that would be the first thing I would sell instead of BTC if I needed the cash.  Wink
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February 16, 2020, 01:19:59 AM

Oh and in regards to lethality: Calculate deaths/(deaths+cured).

Don't know why people keep using total number of infected. It makes no sense. Some of those people are going to die.

Because death occurs earlier in the disease cycle than cured state, (cured may be pronounced many weeks after the onset whereas death in a couple of weeks)
and especially at the beginning of the outbreak this figure will be weighted too far towards a high mortality rate, and equally makes no sense at this point.

You can easily see the error of using this method in the first few weeks, say 5 people died, but nobody has been declared cured, giving a 100% mortality rate.


Bear attempts look pretty futile, nobody else appears to be jumping aboard.
Again, some of the infected are going to die. And we don't know how many of them. We do know how many died and how many were cured. Convenience is no excuse for deliberately fudging the numbers. And it's not 5 people anymore.

I don't dispute that the numbers are fudged, I'm disputing that your alternative method to calculate the mortality rate is also wrong. Even if the available figures were correct, which they are not, there is no way to calculate an accurate mortality rate.Most likely, it lies somewhere between your value and the media's  value, with such a large range it's not very helpful.

(5 was a made up figure, to illustrate the error in the methodology.)

I don't see the problem. Infected people will either end up in the dead category or the cured category. What's missing?

People die quicker than they are declared cured. This difference means that at any point in time the dead is known, but the number who will be cured lags by weeks, weighting the statistic towards a higher mortality rate.
Ok, fair enough. But even if both methods are flawed, for the purposes of combating the virus it is probably better that people take it serious which they really don't when they see 2%.
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February 16, 2020, 01:42:06 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

If I sold BCH and BSV and the other forked

coins from this mess, that did not exist in 2015, I'd actually be ahead. Not sold such yet.


Well just my 2 cents, but if I were you that would be the first thing I would sell instead of BTC if I needed the cash.  Wink

All things considered and since the numbers were revealed...our Brad here would be at around $10mil if/when 100K...he'll be OK, lol.
$10mil gives you a 300K/year cash flow without even touching the principle. A nice pension, indeed.
Just don't use your coins to lend on some of these newcomer blockfies and celsiuses, me thinks.
Not your keys...
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February 16, 2020, 02:25:59 AM

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February 16, 2020, 02:36:47 AM

Around $10K (fractal-projected) in June-July area would be really tough on miners.
Maybe, $12-14K would be more amenable.
$10K is the same as $5k now, which is money losing for the majority.
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February 16, 2020, 02:39:27 AM

tough shit

they can tighten their belts and evolve, or mine at a loss for a while, which would actually be the wise choice
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February 16, 2020, 02:45:42 AM

tough shit

they can tighten their belts and evolve, or mine at a loss for a while, which would actually be the wise choice

evolve? aren't you in a good mood tonight? lol
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February 16, 2020, 02:47:36 AM

Watch how ez that dip gets bought up in BTCull $eason.
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