Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

The oracle has spoken btw, masterluc says $6k is incoming.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ME0DngUr-Short-term-analysis-ending-diagonal/

Tldr; If it goes to $11k, this prediction becomes invalid. If not, $6k.
*If this happens I am going all-in.

Masterluc can go take a flying fuck...

Sure $6k is possible..

just like $1.5k was possible in late 2018/early 2019.... but it did not happen.

[Gyrsur]

adjusted levels because of the new AYH.

[Lambie Slayer]

Pro tip for free: at some point in a bull run BTC price will touch the weekly 20 MA. Use that as a low risk entry. Takes patience, just put in your buy order and adjust.

Thank you   So this would be around ~ $9K right ?

More like $8.2-8.4k right now but it will probably get closer to 9k later on if it keeps going up without a correction.



*Btw, it never touched 20 WMA when it started going up from $3.8k to $14k so it might not be as valid as BitcoinNewsMagazine thinks. LFC's idea is probably a better one. Buy while you still can.

Sure it did early in the last bull run. If you want to be assured of getting filled just adjust your buy price up a few percent above the weekly 20 MA. Later in a bull run you need to use oversold indicators.

Why are our lines different than each other though? Did you mean 20 WMA or 200 WMA or something else?, kinda confused. Sorry, small screen, now i see

The oracle has spoken btw, masterluc says $6k is incoming.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ME0DngUr-Short-term-analysis-ending-diagonal/

Tldr; If it goes to $11k, this prediction becomes invalid. If not, $6k.
*If this happens I am going all-in.

Aids-Flu guarantees we never reach Bargain prices such as 6k again. 11k in less than a week imo.

[JayJuanGee]

Don't get mad at Luc.

He doesn't say it is going go to $6k without any conditions.

He says it will happen if it stays under $11k which is a pretty valid guess imo. I'll buy more tomorrow to help to invalidate this TA. If you want the same thing, you should too.

This thing won't go to $100k by itself, somebody has to buy it from $10k and $20k... $60k... and all the way up to $100k. Believe it or not, Some will even buy it at $100k.

This time BTC is going to $350-$450k so LOTS of peeps are going to jump in at $100k and further up. 

Bruh, I think 350-450k might be a bit ambitious for this cycle. That kind of price will come in 2025 or something a year after the 2024 halving.

Just my opinion but obviously would love you to be right.

Nice hypothetical LFC.

What you going to do, if serveria ends up being correct, and you sold most of your coins below $150k?

Hey, I know that I am giving you some shit because you said that you are ONLY selling half, but is that how it is going to go down, and are you going to be content with yourself if BTC prices 2-4x beyond your most bullish of expectations? 

Are you financially and psychologically prepared for such a possibility, I mean if you sell 1/2 of your BTC at somewhere in the $100k (even sub $100k territory?)? 

Of course, we should be prepared for the outrageous scenarios, including that the top might only get to $65k, and even I am quite skeptical of anything beyond $200k for this cycle, but I surely will have enough bitcoin if such a thing were to happen. 

I am planning to skim off BTC all the way up whether it stops at $15k, or $35k, or $65k or $600k or whatever, and even I have some trouble appreciating what I am going to do with all of the cash that is going to be generated from my skimming off sales, so I don't feel any need to sell higher quantities (percentages of my portfolio) of BTC in order to have more than enough cash from any possible bullrun that might happen.

[fillippone]

Be ready for hordes of nocoiners flooding the gates of Bitcointalk.org when halving and ATH come.

What's the best defence against a nocoiner: burning oil, flaming arrows, a good ol' pitchfork?

(I know some nancy-boy will respond with knowledge and fine argument!)

Dragonstone.

[JayJuanGee]

Don't get mad at Luc.

He doesn't say it is going go to $6k without any conditions.

He says it will happen if it stays under $11k which is a pretty valid guess imo. I'll buy more tomorrow to help to invalidate this TA. If you want the same thing, you should too.

This thing won't go to $100k by itself, somebody has to buy it from $10k and $20k... $60k... and all the way up to $100k. Believe it or not, Some will even buy it at $100k.

This time BTC is going to $350-$450k so LOTS of peeps are going to jump in at $100k and further up. 

Bruh, I think 350-450k might be a bit ambitious for this cycle. That kind of price will come in 2025 or something a year after the 2024 halving.

Just my opinion but obviously would love you to be right.

That is not a prediction actually, that's pure maths (if the growth rate stays the same). 

John?  Is that you?

Didn't McAfee say the same stupid thing? 

In late 2017, McAfee said that it is pure math that bitcoin is going to 1/2 $million by end of 2020 - then a few weeks later, he upped his prediction price to $1million, and then in the end of 2019, while maths did not seem to be going his way, he retracted his whole statement and suggested that he was engaging in hyperbole that no one should have taken seriously.

[JayJuanGee]

I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333

hodl for 300k

I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..

The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..

I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..

Many of the extrapolation results of 2017's bubble top were between about $40k and$50k iirc.?
Just for comparison, if you know or remember better, please let me know.

Huh?

The vast majority of peeps were predicting between about $3k and $7k for 2017.  Of course, there were guys like adam predicting $32k, and there were some $10k folks, but these super bullish predictions were not really the norm.  There were a lot of bearish predictions too.. like we already reached the top... blah blah blah..

Yeah, in retrospect, 2017 might seem all clear, but largely the BTC price move in 2017 went about 3x to 5x beyond expectations....

Now, after reaching $19,666, did people expect 2-3 years to get back to $19,666... I don't think so... Many folks were considering resuming another top, like what happened in 2013.. two tops... but yeah, in retrospect, we see that double top performance did not happen.

[Paashaas]

You need more than 800 corpses that's for sure..

edit: these numbers comes close to the Tencent leak.





https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1226267582740811777

Anything burning fuel produces SO2, including my truck.  

In a quarantined city where no one is working...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- The number of coronavirus cases worldwide has reached 40,000, death toll surpasses 900.

- 10 new cases in Hong Kong, 3 new cases in Singapore; 6 patients in critical condition.

- Spain reports country's 2nd case of coronavirus on Mallorca.

- First wave of Chinese businesses going bankrupt.

- KFC worker is diagnosed with coronavirus as company shuts thousands of restaurants in China.

- WHO Director-General warns "we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg".

- Exiled Chinese billionaire says true death toll closer to 50k, 1.5 million infected.

[realr0ach]

Amazon censors book titled “A History of Central Banking and the Enslavement of Mankind”:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/technology/amazon-bookstore-nazis.html

[bkbirge]

Still early days...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/vaneck-report-illustrates-why-institutions-should-hold-bitcoin

An in-depth comparison of the features of the United States dollar, gold and Bitcoin contained in the report also suggests that Bitcoin has more of the features that are desirable from an asset that serves as money than gold itself.

[yefi]

Dragonstone.

The best defence is a good offence defence.

[eddie13]

I think you guys might be overestimating the pump value on BTC that the China Virus has..

If I was a Chinese guy and had a lot of extra money, sure, putting it into Bitcoin would probably be a good idea rather than holding it in CNY or Chinese stocks..

If I was a Chinese guy with some Bitcoin but not a lot of extra money, I'd be selling the crap out of Bitcoin to buy prepping supplies like food and water to hold up for months without needing to go out..


If this was happening where I live.. I would probably be trading some/much of my Bitcoin for a bunch of 5.56Coin, .308Coin, ParabellumCoin, food, and other supplies, if I needed to..

If this was threatening me, I wouldn't be too concerned about making money on Bitcoin, unless I had so much money I didn't need it all for supplies..

Me personally, I am pretty well prepped already..
I'm a bit of a collector of useful things, so I already have some decent preps like power generation equipment in many forms, offgrid heat, masks/respirators, radios, hunting/fishing supplies, Likely EMP proof vehicles, etc.. etc..  
Actually I think I even have everything lying around to build a Steam Powered Electricity Generator, to turn anything from wood to Used Tires into electricity, if I wanted to..

If it's time to buy a load of food and gasoline, top up, in this current market I wouldn't need to dip into my Bitcoins to buy these things, nor would it be the most convenient way..


Just saying.. I'm not sure that a Pandemic would be 100% good for Bitcoin..

[marcus_of_augustus]

^^^ I agree with much of what you say, it's not clear that bitcoin or gold really benefit in a shtf situation, it depends on the severity. A medium-level hit that upsets the economic apple cart sees safe haven assets do well, in a high severity event that has you scrounging for scraps against your neighbour 'asset' and 'values' become nebulous concepts.

However, in the early stages of exogenous shocks like this coronavirus there is a lot of uncertainty so safe haven assets tend to do well in the short-medium term until things become clearer. Also take note here that there is a subtle difference between a 'flight to safety' and 'flight capital' although they may have overlap.

If you are genuinely fleeing from a effed-up situation, e.g. war, plague, riots, revolution, capital controls, etc and you want to liquidate your assets and take your liquidity with you, or send it on ahead, that is flight capital, bitcoin excels at this function btw, gold is good but heavy and modern border controls (KYC/AML) make it much less useful.

A widespread shift of capital into safe haven assets due to some event or crises in the markets can be called a flight to safety and a range of assets can be useful in those situations.

Bitcoin, imho, is the premiere asset for flight capital today and can also serve somewhat as a safe haven asset, but that is much less proven as it still carries too much risk and volatility to be considered a flight to safety.

[eddie13]

Big dump..
WTF just happened?

[mindrust]

Big dump..
WTF just happened?

Master Luc the party pooper pooped on us.

Observing $9898

[marcus_of_augustus]

Big dump..
WTF just happened?

probably just a little profit taking. We're up 25% in 30 days.

[Lambie Slayer]

Thats how you know this pump is organic and real. Little dumps here and there so we dont move up to fast.

Bull Season is here. Buy all dips.

[jojo69]

slowly?

[Cointxz]

Calm your tits Ladies & Gents and some LGBTQ...

Everything is still under control by the bulls.




The recently mild dump is actually a healthy dump so that BTC price will move towards on the average price range. It's good to see that the ATR of BTC was decrease to 300$ level which
indicates that volatility is decreasing and BTC price is growing organically. Keep safe in trading guys! 

[realr0ach]

Big dump..
WTF just happened?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3Ix4hKSnxQ