Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[P_Shep]

Gosh. That would explain it.

[soullyG]

Hodler game theory, an explanation - from this Twitter post

The Hodler’s Game model shows that Bitcoin’s price, which is deemed by many to be “irrational”, is in fact the result of rational behavior. This rationality offers a certain predictability as to how future price cycles will look like. One important condition for it to hold true, is the market participant dynamics to stay constant: Opportunists entering the market in waves with a small portion staying for the long term with Hodlers supporting the price level during longer time periods.

https://medium.com/coinmonks/the-hodlers-game-a-summary-83ea4bac22d9#0bb9-e5c3c2f8a477

[gallianooo]

I think maybe people are sending corn to exchanges in the anticipation of a potential dump as a reaction to the election results. Maybe if Trump wins they won’t dump but if Old Joe wins they’ll sell into a potential dump.

Either way, whatever. I’m selling nothing!

IDK..

I am not especially for the old Biden.. But hard to see Trump win again.

Put a 5K$ gambling bet on BIDEN at 1.45. Will see  

I bet on Biden too. Wont mind losing as my taxes will be lower if/when I finally sell some coins. Win, win.  

Either guy will print tons of money so Bitcoin wins no matter what.

We will see  .. Maybe if odds was at 3/1 or more, would be EV+ to bet on Trump, but at 2.5 or less don't think so.

[elrippos friend]

While "Lockdown" in Austria is a kind of joke. Why?
Fitness studios, indoor sport facilities, restaurants, theaters and bars are to be closed tomorrow.
When going out between 8pm and 6am you need a good reason ("go for a walk" will do, though) and only 2 households (6 persons plus 6 children max) are allowed to meet, with the exception of 3 persons each living single.
They are at 28% ICU capacities now (was 15% last week) with the usual exponential curve showing.
This won't slow down anything, at least not within two weeks. New ICU patients grew 78% compared to last week. This is going to get very dirty.
And the best thing is, the government obviously wants to save the winter tourism season, starting at the end of november.
Nobody will come, even if they manage to drop to sub 1k newly infected per day. R0 is at 1.4 atm.

Well those numbers are "created" in comparison to actual nurses working in ICU so i rather would not rely on those figures 

[BobLawblaw]

[soullyG]

#beartears

[bitebits]

Why people still attempt shorting an asset that has been going up for almost 12 years is beyond me. But go ahead please, today’s short is tomorrow’s market buy.

[jojo69]

“We stand today at a crossroads: One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other leads to total extinction. Let us hope we have the wisdom to make the right choice.”

[Arriemoller]

“We stand today at a crossroads: One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other leads to total extinction. Let us hope we have the wisdom to make the right choice.”

You're just full of joy and happiness aren't you.

[Biodom]

“We stand today at a crossroads: One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other leads to total extinction. Let us hope we have the wisdom to make the right choice.”

that's Woody's quote  
@arriemoller is excused since the does not know american culture, maybe apart from Rambo I-IV, John Wayne and the "Guns of Navarone"

[Icygreen]

Good morning Nov. 3rd!
Proud and excited to cast my vote for BTC today!
Voting for rules, not rulers.
Voting with my wallet this election because voting with my opinion in the past hasn't delivered correct results.
The best part is, you neither need be American nor side with a political party to participate.

Cue up V for Vendetta and grab some popcorn. This will be an interesting evening.

Bitcoin:  An unnoticed drip which sprang into a trickle, then a steady stream and now a river feeding an ocean.

Sure feels good to understand Bitcoin today.  This I owe to you WO's, my deepest thanks!

[tranthidung]

Hi WO_gang, again. I come back with other analysis for you. Enjoy the latest difficulty adjustment.

Here you go with my new thread. If you feel my threads are boring, please ignore me or this thread. No need to be serious, I am data-freak. If you read it, I thank you for your attention and your time.  


Today, bitcoin network has its second biggest difficulty decreasing (negatively) adjustment, at -16.04992%. The biggest one in negative value is at -18.03, 9 years ago, in 2011.

See details:

• Block 655199: 19997335994446
• Block 655200: 16787779609933

The network difficulty was adjusted ~ 7 hours ago with the fall of -16.04992% in difficulty between block 655199 and 655200. It is a big adjustment. The second biggest decreasing adjustment in history of bitcoin network.

The biggest one is 9 years ago (in 2011) between 2 following blocks and percent of decreasing adjustment is -18.03. Impressive for today adjustment.

• Block 151199: 1468195.4272208
• Block 151200: 1203461.92638

• Over the history, there are 123 adjustments have values > 10% and 6 adjustments have values < -10% (include the one for today).
• The biggest positive adjustment is 300% on 16jul2010.
• It was adjusted 309 times (the dataset is for 308 only). I will update with dataset for today later depends on loyceclub
• Median (interquartile range): 7.09% (1.67% - 16.42%).
• Min - max: -18.03 - 300
• Ideas: from plot, you can see some spikes and you can dig to find out what happened in the past

Code:

   variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     diff_pc |       308  11.84201  22.32675     7.085     1.675     16.42    -18.03       300
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Positive changes > 10%
123 recorded days.

Code:

     +------------------------+
      |      date   diff_pcpos |
      |------------------------|
 357. | 30dec2009        18.29 |
 369. | 11jan2010        10.33 |
 393. | 04feb2010        35.29 |
 403. | 14feb2010        38.99 |
 413. | 24feb2010        49.59 |
      |------------------------|
 425. | 08mar2010        19.83 |
 449. | 01apr2010         33.3 |
 460. | 12apr2010         28.5 |
 469. | 21apr2010        46.61 |
 482. | 04may2010        12.08 |
      |------------------------|
 507. | 29may2010        40.29 |
 533. | 24jun2010        11.64 |
 545. | 06jul2010        21.11 |
 552. | 13jul2010        93.12 |
 555. | 16jul2010          300 |
      |------------------------|
 566. | 27jul2010        34.52 |
 575. | 05aug2010         44.2 |
 585. | 15aug2010        45.32 |
 596. | 26aug2010        21.81 |
 609. | 08sep2010        14.36 |
      |------------------------|
 620. | 19sep2010        28.75 |
 629. | 28sep2010        43.67 |
 652. | 21oct2010        55.95 |
 661. | 30oct2010        43.87 |
 671. | 09nov2010        46.73 |
      |------------------------|
 680. | 18nov2010        51.37 |
 692. | 30nov2010        17.64 |
 701. | 09dec2010        51.67 |
 713. | 21dec2010        18.22 |
 726. | 03jan2011        12.59 |
      |------------------------|
 738. | 15jan2011        13.06 |
 750. | 27jan2011        19.39 |
 762. | 08feb2011        18.11 |
 772. | 18feb2011        40.24 |
 781. | 27feb2011        52.47 |
      |------------------------|
 791. | 09mar2011        37.06 |
 818. | 05apr2011        19.38 |
 831. | 18apr2011        12.15 |
 843. | 30apr2011        18.76 |
 852. | 09may2011        43.54 |
      |------------------------|
 861. | 18may2011        55.07 |
 869. | 26may2011        78.15 |
 880. | 06jun2011        30.44 |
 889. | 15jun2011        54.59 |
 898. | 24jun2011        57.27 |
      |------------------------|
 910. | 06jul2011        13.33 |
 936. | 01aug2011         11.7 |
1218. | 09may2012        14.89 |
1326. | 25aug2012         11.4 |
1338. | 06sep2012        10.38 |
      |------------------------|
1490. | 05feb2013        10.33 |
1503. | 18feb2013        11.47 |
1514. | 01mar2013        19.63 |
1527. | 14mar2013        10.98 |
1537. | 24mar2013        38.13 |
      |------------------------|
1549. | 05apr2013        14.59 |
1561. | 17apr2013        16.96 |
1574. | 30apr2013        12.28 |
1586. | 12may2013        11.03 |
1610. | 05jun2013        28.41 |
      |------------------------|
1621. | 16jun2013        23.92 |
1634. | 29jun2013        10.32 |
1646. | 11jul2013        22.63 |
1657. | 22jul2013        19.47 |
1669. | 03aug2013        19.63 |
      |------------------------|
1679. | 13aug2013        35.88 |
1690. | 24aug2013         29.4 |
1701. | 04sep2013        32.22 |
1711. | 14sep2013        29.56 |
1722. | 25sep2013        32.13 |
      |------------------------|
1733. | 06oct2013        27.19 |
1743. | 16oct2013        41.45 |
1753. | 26oct2013        46.02 |
1763. | 05nov2013         30.7 |
1775. | 17nov2013        19.29 |
      |------------------------|
1787. | 29nov2013        16.07 |
1798. | 10dec2013        28.41 |
1809. | 21dec2013        30.01 |
1821. | 02jan2014        20.12 |
1832. | 13jan2014        26.16 |
      |------------------------|
1843. | 24jan2014        22.59 |
1855. | 05feb2014        19.49 |
1867. | 17feb2014        19.39 |
1878. | 28feb2014        21.92 |
1891. | 13mar2014        11.39 |
      |------------------------|
1902. | 24mar2014         17.8 |
1914. | 05apr2014        22.23 |
1926. | 17apr2014        14.04 |
1938. | 29apr2014        14.64 |
1951. | 12may2014        10.66 |
      |------------------------|
1963. | 24may2014         18.1 |
1975. | 05jun2014        12.44 |
1988. | 18jun2014        14.51 |
1999. | 29jun2014        24.93 |
2050. | 19aug2014        20.86 |
      |------------------------|
2062. | 31aug2014        15.03 |
2087. | 25sep2014         16.2 |
2128. | 05nov2014        10.05 |
2512. | 24nov2015        10.44 |
2536. | 18dec2015        18.14 |
      |------------------------|
2549. | 31dec2015        11.16 |
2587. | 07feb2016        20.06 |
2599. | 19feb2016        13.44 |
2872. | 18nov2016        10.68 |
2937. | 22jan2017        16.64 |
      |------------------------|
3070. | 04jun2017         13.9 |
3110. | 14jul2017        13.53 |
3176. | 18sep2017        19.58 |
3214. | 26oct2017        21.39 |
3255. | 06dec2017        18.11 |
      |------------------------|
3267. | 18dec2017        17.74 |
3293. | 13jan2018        15.36 |
3305. | 25jan2018        16.84 |
3317. | 06feb2018        10.43 |
3436. | 05jun2018        14.71 |
      |------------------------|
3490. | 29jul2018        14.88 |
3645. | 31dec2018        10.03 |
3795. | 30may2019        11.26 |
3835. | 09jul2019        14.23 |
3862. | 05aug2019        10.78 |
      |------------------------|
3901. | 13sep2019        10.38 |
4178. | 16jun2020        14.95 |
4274. | 20sep2020        11.35 |
      +------------------------+

Negative changes < - 10%
5 days in history, and the one for today is the six record.

Code:

     +------------------------+
      |      date   diff_pcneg |
      |------------------------|
1010. | 14oct2011       -13.09 |
1027. | 31oct2011       -18.03 |
1449. | 26dec2012       -11.59 |
3617. | 03dec2018       -15.13 |
4096. | 26mar2020       -15.95 |
      +------------------------+

Updated plots

[Torque]

since bitcoin is a bearer asset it is possible to possess bitcoin. of course we all know that there are no physical bitcoin you send around the interwebs or keep them in your wallet - what you can physically own in reality are the private keys that allow you to spent your UTXO´s. be aware that the UTXO´s never leave the bitcoin network. it is a closed system. the bitcoin blockchain is a closed system: it is permissionless and p2p, but the info on the ledger never leaves the ledger.

1) bitcoin (the unit) can never leave the blockchain, where it is embedded
2) the only thing a bitcoin is pegged to is energy due to the mining process (impossible to directly peg a bitcoin (or any other blockchain token) to a physical object.) there are no utility coins possible due to this.
3) since it is a closed system that can only be pegged to energy there are only very limited use cases: the only thing a token in a closed system can be used for is if it represents something. imagine some weird machine that juggles table tennis balls. the balls can not leave the machine. what utility can the balls bring to users? they can represent something, that is it. what could they represent? the only abstract thing that would make sense to organize in an immutable ledger would be money. since moneys only use case is to represent value, this is the only use case for a token in a closed system.

blockchains can only be used as money. since bitcoin has won the race long ago and by far, it is utterly useless to create, invest in, waste time on 7500 additional money protocols.

money pegged to energy is the only way to go. unpegged money will get printed into inflation. gold pegged money will always first lose its peg and then will get printed into inflation. our fiat money system derived from a gold pegged system, the dollar is a layer 2 scaling solution for gold.

the 2020ies will bring the transition. don't be scared. bitcoin is great and will save us.


edit: typos

You said it very well. I've mentioned the same on this thread many times over the years...if you think deeply and philosophically on this point, you'll soon realize that beyond Bitcoin^TM there is no reason for any other cryptocurrency to even exist. Therefore the thousands of shitcoin projects out there will ultimately prove completely meaningless. Those that believe otherwise are in complete denial of the truth.

Hopefully this will become more apparent with time.

[Karartma1]

Gloomy November 3rd
Surprisingly bitcoin starts
a revolution
#haiku 3

[Febo]

Let me share a curios and a little unpleasant story. In my country, a large part of the population ID's expires this year. The government has decided to extend this period by another year due to the covid crisis and to avoid crowds. So far so good. But I started receiving letters from all crypto exchanges that my ID has expired. And now I have to write letters to the support, to explain myself to them to give me access to my accounts. I do not currently have access to any exchange and I have to wait days, probably weeks for this issue to be resovled. This sucks.

I was denied a credit card because my DL was expired, even though my passport was valid. What does driving have to do with credit??? My bitcoin wallet never expires.

You probably live in USA. I was shocked when someone told me that driving license is considered as an ID in USA. Most of the world have them totally separate. My driving licence is valid till 2056 I got it for 50 years. In USA you have to renew it a lot. It is more like ID then a driving license.

why shocked...because of this many americans don't have passports that they have to show everywhere;
"your papers" type stuff.
logging around passport everywhere would have been annoying.

I have an identity card for that. I can also travel to quarter of the world with just my identity card, no passport needed. Driving licence is just to show I passed my driving exam and I know how to drive. And also on it are marked if I did something wrong and if it was ever temporary taken from me. Would be dumb to show that to enter in a bar, or to KYC on a crypto exchange. When I get to certain age I will have to do medical exams every few years and that will prolong my driving licence. Identity card have to prolong every 10 years.

[Toxic2040]

good morning


everyone have your popcorn ready? 


#dyor


kitteh arches back or inverse head and shoulder?
1h


parade tail flying proudly...wheezy dont care
4h

#stronghands

[Last of the V8s]

[bitebits]

https://panteracapital.medium.com/paypal-introduces-300-million-users-to-crypto-d938468c67aa

In aggregate across PayPal, Robinhood, and Cash App, that’s 350 million people who can instantly participate in crypto bitcoin without having to go through a multi-day/week onboarding process for a crypto bitcoin exchange. That was a major issue all throughout the 2017 bull market. Investors wanted exposure but it was an arduous and cumbersome experience.

[jojo69]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BqxArM3Vwk&feature=youtu.be

[FullNode]

what is your plan?

I have little btc so I allocate a monthly amount to increase my stash no matter how high or low the price is

I sell some and I keep some.

I suppose this depends in part on the amount of btc you have, the purchase price or if you are a long term hodler, we all have to have a strategy, mine is the simplest, although I would not mind having to think how to do with hundreds of btc when the next ATH comes