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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 7 (8.3%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.4%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (3.6%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (8.3%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 12 (14.3%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 18 (21.4%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 8 (9.5%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (7.1%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 3 (3.6%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.4%)
>$40,000 - 16 (19%)
Total Voters: 84

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25621832 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (160 posts by 2 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Last of the V8s
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October 01, 2020, 06:25:15 PM


https://twitter.com/nobsbitcoin/status/1311730626471567363?s=20
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JayJuanGee
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October 01, 2020, 06:26:07 PM

The more coins locked-out for a long time, the better. Right ? Grin

No.

Security and availability is another one of those issues that I intended to write about, on the subject of using seed phrases with ostensibly strong passphrases.  Re AlcoHoDL, et al.  Have not yet gotten to it.  In a nutshell:  If you care about your heirs, don’t use passphrases!  Use Shamir’s Secret Sharing to back up secret pieces in some way that mitigates risk of compromise while you are alive, but also has a high probability of surviving your death or otherwise incapacitation.

Well, whenever you are writing further on this particular topic (perhaps in the form of a tome or treatise? - #nohomo), hopefully you keep in mind practicality of regular joes - reminds me a bit of how trace mayer used to recommend people hold their keys.. ... Yeah, right, works for technical geniuses, but not necessarily for regular joes.

In other words, not everyone is ready, willing and able to learn, even if they might meet part of that formula.. they need all of it... including the action and even time components.

Not everyone is as technical as you, and the fact of the matter remains that the vast majority of regular joes (and the jane or two that is in this space) need to have simple as fuck.. and prefer to have simple as fuck.

In recent times, I had been making some changes to my security and back up.. and while I was making such changes, I had to make considerable adjustments that kind of caused rethinking and re-jiggering of the whole previous plan(s)... almost like a shit-ton of make-shift work.... and surely, even causing me to consider some future changes that I am going to make again, "when I get a chance."

The shit continues to be complicated as fuck, even when putting time into various systems that are in place and even changes that take place from time to time, and sure, Shamir secret sharing is somewhat new too, at least in terms of some hardware wallets just starting to allow for that function.. and some people have older devices (and systems too, such as paper methods)
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October 01, 2020, 06:29:25 PM

https://twitter.com/stephendpalley/status/1311694266389929986

Quote
BREAKING: CFTC sues Bitmex, Arthur Hayes "to enjoin their ongoing illegal offering of commodity derivatives to U.S. persons, their acceptance of funds to margin derivatives transactions from individuals and entities in the U.S., & their operation of a derivatives trading platform

yay the drama we need

Oof.  So that's the why behind the dip.

That's a silly reason to dip I think.  Plus didn't we all know this was coming.  I figure we recover fairly quickly.

I...
Hope...
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October 01, 2020, 06:37:23 PM

Arthur didn't tell Sam not to go to the US, either didn't even know this was coming (which we all did, just not when) or sacrificial lamb...
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October 01, 2020, 06:41:32 PM



aka the crime of sneering at a banana republic

go after them for rigging the market, a true crime? nah

... swamp creature slave masters don't accept coconuts, only plantation bananas
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"DO NOT FUNGE >:( >:( "


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October 01, 2020, 06:47:19 PM

https://twitter.com/stephendpalley/status/1311694266389929986

Quote
BREAKING: CFTC sues Bitmex, Arthur Hayes "to enjoin their ongoing illegal offering of commodity derivatives to U.S. persons, their acceptance of funds to margin derivatives transactions from individuals and entities in the U.S., & their operation of a derivatives trading platform

yay the drama we need

Who is this Hayes character??

He has teeth like JJG has words...
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October 01, 2020, 06:49:43 PM

https://twitter.com/stephendpalley/status/1311694266389929986

Quote
BREAKING: CFTC sues Bitmex, Arthur Hayes "to enjoin their ongoing illegal offering of commodity derivatives to U.S. persons, their acceptance of funds to margin derivatives transactions from individuals and entities in the U.S., & their operation of a derivatives trading platform

yay the drama we need

Who is this Hayes character??

He has teeth like JJG has words...

Big collection, no particular order?   Grin
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ESG, KYC & AML are attack vectors on Bitcoin


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October 01, 2020, 06:52:34 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)


So, currently, Bitmex is processing withdrawals in a way that is more regular than regularly?

In other words, we (royal?) do not need to worry about the earlier fear expressed by WhalePanda that was reflected in your earlier post (depicted below)?

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October 01, 2020, 06:54:06 PM

https://twitter.com/stephendpalley/status/1311694266389929986

Quote
BREAKING: CFTC sues Bitmex, Arthur Hayes "to enjoin their ongoing illegal offering of commodity derivatives to U.S. persons, their acceptance of funds to margin derivatives transactions from individuals and entities in the U.S., & their operation of a derivatives trading platform

yay the drama we need

Who is this Hayes character??

He has teeth like JJG has words...

Big collection, no particular order?   Grin

You're right ... Arthurs teeth make way more sense than JJG. Tongue
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October 01, 2020, 06:56:34 PM


So, currently, Bitmex is processing withdrawals in a way that is more regular than regularly?

In other words, we (royal?) do not need to worry about the earlier fear expressed by WhalePanda that was reflected in your earlier post (depicted below)?


My speculation is that direction.  They are some of the most honest pirates on the high seas.  I bet they are not even fractional. 

We just don't want the gvmt getting a hold of enough of the keys.

Wonder if Hayes uses the insurance fund for lawyers... could make sense.
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October 01, 2020, 06:58:46 PM

BitMEX has got a large stash :  the insurance fund of 21k btc...

them feds are hungry for bitcoin. I did read that the silkroad btc the us Marshall service had auctioned off would be worth $1 billion today.
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October 01, 2020, 07:05:55 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)


So, currently, Bitmex is processing withdrawals in a way that is more regular than regularly?

In other words, we (royal?) do not need to worry about the earlier fear expressed by WhalePanda that was reflected in your earlier post (depicted below)?


Bitmex always do withdraws once a day at 13.00 UTC.

There are two theories why they are doing withdrawals right now:

1) ease the panic

2) they dont know if they can proceed withdraws tommorow


I hope its 1 lol



Btw i checked again regarding the multisig - their FAQ states it is a 2 of 3 multisig.

So that means as long as they only jail one more guy its fine Tongue



Bitmex earned over 1 billion $ in fees so far, they shouldnt have money troubles Smiley
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October 01, 2020, 07:09:13 PM

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October 01, 2020, 07:09:34 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Security and availability is another one of those issues that I intended to write about, on the subject of using seed phrases with ostensibly strong passphrases.  Re AlcoHoDL, et al.  Have not yet gotten to it.  In a nutshell:  If you care about your heirs, don’t use passphrases!  Use Shamir’s Secret Sharing to back up secret pieces in some way that mitigates risk of compromise while you are alive, but also has a high probability of surviving your death or otherwise incapacitation.

Well, whenever you are writing further on this particular topic (perhaps in the form of a tome or treatise? - #nohomo), hopefully you keep in mind practicality of regular joes - reminds me a bit of how trace mayer used to recommend people hold their keys.. ... Yeah, right, works for technical geniuses, but not necessarily for regular joes.

In other words, not everyone is ready, willing and able to learn, even if they might meet part of that formula.. they need all of it... including the action and even time components.

Not everyone is as technical as you, and the fact of the matter remains that the vast majority of regular joes (and the jane or two that is in this space) need to have simple as fuck.. and prefer to have simple as fuck.

As a practical matter, the hardest part isn’t technical.  As usual, the biggest problem is human.  A very rough sketch:

How astute are you at judging character?  Could you choose N people in your life, such that it is very unlikely that M of them would conspire against you?  —And also very unlikely that (N - M) + 1 of them would inopportunely die, disappear, lose stuff, or just flake out?

(Remember that with M/N Secret Sharing, M - 1 shares together reveal zero information about the secret; on a technical level, it is information-theoretically secure.)

Any potential traitors face the problem that to betray, they need to risk potentially suggesting betrayal to somebody who may be loyal—somebody who would promptly inform you.  (Though if your threat model may include a risk of coercion of your fiduciaries, this calculation could be turned upside-down.)

Just for a contrived off-the-cuff example:  Maybe you don’t (and shouldn’t) trust your lawyer.  But how likely is it that he, a member of your family, and your best friend would all form a conspiratorial meeting of the minds for the purpose of stabbing you in the back and ripping you off?  —Especially if none of them is aware of what he has?  Whom do you know who would safeguard for you a sealed envelope, with instructions to open it if and only if you are dead or permanently incapacitated?  (Or return it to you if you ask for it in person—as your last-resort catastrophe-plan backup.)

If you can figure out the human problem, then the technical part is easy!

Of course, all that human stuff is what is usually forgotten by technology people.
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October 01, 2020, 07:09:40 PM

bitcoins invention had such a deep impact on everything a proper IT guy was holding as true that it confused the shit out of everyone that went down the rabbit hole in the first place. how to wrap one's head around this beast?

the easiest structural thing to identify of this new kid on the block was its database structure. man, what mess could have been saved if they would have just called it TIMECHAIN and not fkn stupid BLOCKCHAIN. bitcoin was such a weird and unknown beast that the best strategy seemed to be to start with understanding why it uses a timechain.

somehow this approach started to become so dominant that people started to refer to the timechain being "the tech that enables bitcoin". this was a lazy and stupid approach, but it helped explaining how in an "append-only" database, if you do wrap the data in "blocks" and connect them via a hash consecutively in a time wise order, that this data is now unpenetrateably sealed into the database.

so plausible, so catchy - and not wrong at all. but for fuck sake not THAT relevant either. the consensus algorithm with validating nodes, the difficulty adjustment, the game theory of competing miners getting a reward (block reward), the torrent-like distribution of the database, the collective git-process of open source software development, the ten minute global sync time (block time), the hard cap, the fee structure, the emission schedule (halving)

all them are important delicately enginereed details of the bitcoin tech that make that boat float.

to say that blockchain is the tech that enables bitcoin is like saying it is the order of the tires that is the tech behind a car. sure placing the 4 tires in a correct manner is important if you want to build a car. but you still need a fkn motor, steering, a brake, and a body.

that a misunderstood buzzword could create this biggest shitpile of lies and deception and fraud and scam in tech history is a phenomenon on its own. and boy it did become alive and is a beast of its own now.

bitcoin dominance at 55% percent shines a light on the amount of sheer stupidity. IT and marketing "blockchain-not-bitcoin" farts glorifying "blockchain" as the new global next big thing in tech (check out the blockchain strategic papers of the BIG FOUR global accounting firms Deloitte, Ernst & Young, KPMG, PricewaterhouseCoopers - them managing 85% of global companies, they hail the blockchain the same way lunatic hardcore Christians hail the last coming of the messiah) is a joke unfortunately only maximalists seem getting.

this one little misunderstanding of timechain has created two separate multi billion grave nuthouses that have their own life now.

1)
6999 shitcoins (aka "products") with no use case other than scamming (or like in ETH case, the use case is enabling scamming in different layers (ERC20, DEFI, NFT) on one side. people get scammed to buy tokens that should have never been sold for money. in bitcoins case a market had to be established to facilitate price finding and distribution. how on earth did that emerge as a model to straightforwardly sell vaporware to "investors"?  looking at you coinmarketcap and at you - exchanges. why would you sell digital gold on one side and 6999 fake gold shit on the other?

2)
5 years of billions invested of global consortiums of the biggest global players (looking at you, CORDA) in all kinds of "blockchain" products that never saw the light. hundreds of conferences, thousands of marketing suits, spitting out the same "blockchain is the future" sheit year after year after year - and to this day NOTHING, NADA, NULL, ZERO use cases.

how doesn't anybody see the strange asymmetry between two industries both working on "blockchain" - one side has 6999 products with no use case and the other is the plethora of existing companies desperately searching for products. why don't they just team up?

because their concept is laughably incorrect, they can't merge since blockchain is no tech. both sides derailed from real IT to a mere buzzword. trying to build industries on it.

what a shitshow.










Bitcoin drops to $11.1K as USD cash record disappoints BTC cost . An uptick in the USD cash record creates a moment plunge for BTC/USD, with the biggest cryptographic money sinking 5% on the day. Computerized money markets began dropping on Saturday after BTC contacted a March high of $9,125 per coin. BTC is down over 10% on Monday and costs are floating around $7,600-7,750 at press time. BTC actually has around 63% market predominance among the 5,000+ cryptos in presence with the cryptoconomy esteemed at $350 billion today. The volume of all steady coins is currently $39.58 B. As per Messari.io, BTC has around $2 billion in "genuine" worldwide exchange volume yet detailed volume is around $97 billion.






https://www.dailymotion.com/video/xbv18a

 Grin Funny video Grin
JayJuanGee
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October 01, 2020, 07:13:08 PM
Last edit: October 01, 2020, 07:25:43 PM by JayJuanGee

https://twitter.com/stephendpalley/status/1311694266389929986

Quote
BREAKING: CFTC sues Bitmex, Arthur Hayes "to enjoin their ongoing illegal offering of commodity derivatives to U.S. persons, their acceptance of funds to margin derivatives transactions from individuals and entities in the U.S., & their operation of a derivatives trading platform

yay the drama we need

Who is this Hayes character??

He has teeth like JJG nullius has words...

Whoaza!!!!!!

That mustn't be yours truly...    Angry Angry Angry

Surely, you mustv'e been referrening to some udder peep.  

See proposed change above.

https://twitter.com/stephendpalley/status/1311694266389929986

Quote
BREAKING: CFTC sues Bitmex, Arthur Hayes "to enjoin their ongoing illegal offering of commodity derivatives to U.S. persons, their acceptance of funds to margin derivatives transactions from individuals and entities in the U.S., & their operation of a derivatives trading platform

yay the drama we need

Who is this Hayes character??

He has teeth like JJG has words...

Big collection, no particular order?   Grin

You're right ... Arthurs teeth make way more sense than JJG. Tongue

That assertion might have some truths to it.   Cry Cry

Pics of those teeths tend to present admireably as:  BIG, scary and organized.

[edited out]

My speculation is that direction.  They are some of the most honest pirates on the high seas.  I bet they are not even fractional.  

We just don't want the gvmt getting a hold of enough of the keys.

Wonder if Hayes uses the insurance fund for lawyers... could make sense.

The other three Bitmex representatives who were charged gotta be feeling some kinds of pressures, currently.  I would imagine that they have decent amounts of moneys that they can spend on attorneys, and they may even be able to garner some sympathy donations, too (from the bitcoin community, and perhaps even some shitcoiners might be willing to send value in such legal defense direction, too).

BitMEX has got a large stash :  the insurance fund of 21k btc...

them feds are hungry for bitcoin. I did read that the silkroad btc the us Marshall service had auctioned off would be worth $1 billion today.

ditto
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October 01, 2020, 07:14:45 PM

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October 01, 2020, 07:18:27 PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/Crypto_Bitlord/status/1311732757995745283

https://twitter.com/Crypto_Bitlord/status/1311731052575039488

Arthur is true crypto freedom fighter, you got 24 hrs.
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October 01, 2020, 07:22:41 PM

Will there still be a $100k party?

Just curious
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October 01, 2020, 07:23:47 PM

BitMEX has got a large stash :  the insurance fund of 21k btc...
them feds are hungry for bitcoin. I did read that the silkroad btc the us Marshall service had auctioned off would be worth $1 billion today.
Just because the founder(s) are indicted doesn't mean they can't still operate.
FBI are in talks of prosecuting them in United states laws yet they are operating from another country so I can't see them going under.
Yeah, he seems to be the king of the jungle there. Cool

https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/bitcoin-price-crashes-450-on-bitmex-ceo-arthur-hayes-other-founders-indicted-on-criminal-charges/?amp=1
The CTFC and DOJ are looking to sue them.
https://www.coindesk.com/bitmex-cftc-enforcement

It would interesting to see how they get out of this one by the skin of their (Hayes's) teeth! Grin
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