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Question: When ATH?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 24411514 times)
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October 02, 2020, 02:23:21 PM


Quote
Another 10.6k BTC was withdrawn during BitMEX's regular withdrawal processing today (13:00 UTC)

That's 25% of BitMEX's Bitcoin (48.4k of 193k) that have been withdrawn since yesterday's CFTC charges were announced
https://twitter.com/coinmetrics/status/1312030319978196992


Bye bye shorting bears.  Kiss
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October 02, 2020, 02:27:53 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), vapourminer (2), JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1), Karartma1 (1), psycodad (1)

EU is going full steam digital €


they list the reasons it could become necessary to issue a digital € and the most interesting reasons are

-avoiding risks of unregulated payment solutions
-preempting uptake of foreign currencies


regarding the first one I assumed this was directed towards libra. but then again... if they ever let libra happen they would regulate the hell out of it.
so... towards what is this official policy of the EU aimed at? what is an unregulated solution? the only real unregulated imaginable is bitcoin. imho the EU is acknowledging Bitcoin as a serious competitor.

regarding the second one I think this aimed towards Chinese or other cbdc´s that are being developed. this is remarkable! the EU is officially acknowledging game-theory of global financial scale: "we can't let them have all the global market"

the race has started. they all have to follow. strategically a necessity. them are studying bitcoin very closely I am sure.

here are the other reasons the give:

-complementing cash and deposits
-creating synergies with payment industry
-supporting digitalization in EU economy
-ensuring access to central bank money

(last one is interesting. what kind of scenario is this one aimed at?)
 


https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/Report_on_a_digital_euro~4d7268b458.en.pdf#page=4

I just quickly looked through, its an interesting read.

Quote
An infrastructure with some decentralisation could be used to provide a bearer digital euro, where either end users, or supervised intermediaries acting on their behalf, would verify any payment. This could be achieved through either of the following two models, which could also be combined:64
(i) Direct end-user access to the bearer digital euro;
(ii) Hybrid bearer digital euro (also allowing wholesale transactions) and account-based infrastructure.

a bearer CBDC?  Huh

Quote
Different technical solutions could be envisaged for implementing such a solution, in particular enabling the central bank to have administrator access through remote access capabilities to the digital euro systems operated by supervised intermediaries. More advanced techniques could be used whereby cryptographic proof is computed by the systems to prove to the central bank that the amounts recorded remain valid.
Finally, to ensure consistency of the amounts and avoid the abovementioned risks for end users, the latter could be given the possibility to automatically check, through their devices and applications, that their balances correspond to what is recorded in the system of the central bank. To ensure that no unintended transaction can be originated by an intermediary on behalf of a user, the end user could automatically send a request to the central bank upon initiation of a transaction (using a private signature not known to the intermediary) approving initiation of the transaction. The end user would then receive confirmation from the central bank system that the transaction had been processed.

money is going digital. there will be

-bitcoin, the only real digital scarce asset

-50k shitcoins

-10 or 20 CBDC (or if the go full shitcoin we will have 160 CBDC soon...)



should bitcoiners worry about competition in the digital scarcity game?

Quote
Requirement 4 (R4): monetary policy option. If considered to be a tool for improving the transmission of monetary policy, the digital euro should be remunerated

23) at interest rate(s) that the central bank can modify over time

 Cheesy

i have read in there somewhere that they wanted to peg it to the overall interest rate which is 0% to -0.5%

so, no ... thank you.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/html/digitaleuro-report.en.html

also see reuter link:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-currency-digital/ecb-must-prepare-to-issue-a-digital-euro-panetta-says-idUSKBN26N0S0?utm_source=reddit.com

A CBDC is about 2 thing, power, and more money for the capital owners.

CBs represent the corporates, and in the CBs eyes the government is not doing enough to help these corporates. If it was up to the CBs there would be constant never ending fiscal responses, this would be done in a number of ways, but of particular importance is giving money to the people. CBs want inflation, because inflation helps capital owners in a massive way. Monetary responses (which is all a CB can do) have reached their limits, so if we are to continue the global ponzi we need a fiscal driver.

Now, despite what everyone thinks about CBs, CBs can't print electronic money (only the private banks can do this, and only through lending). CBs can only print reserves (bank capital), and physical cash. Now physical cash ain't going to cut it, for the simple reason being that it is anonymous, and this reduces the power of authority so no good. Plus dealing in physical is a pain in the ass. Enter the CBDC.

With a CBDC, governments now take a back seat in regards to the economy because CBDCs give the CBs the ability to create fiscal responses. And a CB doesn't have to clear its spending plans in the senate, or any other checks and balances inconveniences related to elected officials. When CBDCs arrive, you will see this helicopter money that everyone used to talk about and every citizen and non citizen alike will be flooded with this new "electronic cash". Be prepared for that inflation, because when a CBDC actually happens you'll see your inflation.

So in summary, CBDC will make CBs very powerful, and kind of like an alternative government in their own right. They also want inflation, and lots of it, so helicopter money will be a thing. The good news for us hodlers (capital owners) is that BTC along with other assets will head north and never look back. The bad news is that the people (labor) will lose out in a massive way, but they'll welcome it because it will be like a UBI. Little do they know that the inflation tax will make them worse off and the entire economy will become zombiefied with the cessation of the last remnants of capitalism. This is the decline of the west.  
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October 02, 2020, 03:17:24 PM
Merited by Torque (1)

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The magic of #Bitcoin isn’t the transfer of money to someone 10,000 miles away – it is the transfer of money to someone 10,000 days away.
https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1312011788708392966
cAPSLOCK
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October 02, 2020, 03:33:54 PM

They always talk about an "October surprise" during an election year.

Trump gets diagnosed with Covid-19 right on October 1st.

His self-quarantine will last 14 days, and end exactly on the day before his next debate with Biden.

What an utterly...amazing...coincidence.  The odds. Roll Eyes

It could be God himself is writing this story.
So it is the God theory being scripted just like what it will be when it is laid out in the book he will write in his memoirs. Cheesy
Maybe let nullius explain this to us who are dull towards these religious cues Wink

What I am saying is this IS the book.
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October 02, 2020, 03:36:31 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), El duderino_ (1)

Because valid reasons

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October 02, 2020, 03:40:17 PM

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The magic of #Bitcoin isn’t the transfer of money to someone 10,000 miles away – it is the transfer of money to someone 10,000 days away.
https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1312011788708392966

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October 02, 2020, 04:00:51 PM


A CBDC is about 2 thing, power, and more money for the capital owners.

CBs represent the corporates, and in the CBs eyes the government is not doing enough to help these corporates. If it was up to the CBs there would be constant never ending fiscal responses, this would be done in a number of ways, but of particular importance is giving money to the people. CBs want inflation, because inflation helps capital owners in a massive way. Monetary responses (which is all a CB can do) have reached their limits, so if we are to continue the global ponzi we need a fiscal driver.

Now, despite what everyone thinks about CBs, CBs can't print electronic money (only the private banks can do this, and only through lending). CBs can only print reserves (bank capital), and physical cash. Now physical cash ain't going to cut it, for the simple reason being that it is anonymous, and this reduces the power of authority so no good. Plus dealing in physical is a pain in the ass. Enter the CBDC.

With a CBDC, governments now take a back seat in regards to the economy because CBDCs give the CBs the ability to create fiscal responses. And a CB doesn't have to clear its spending plans in the senate, or any other checks and balances inconveniences related to elected officials. When CBDCs arrive, you will see this helicopter money that everyone used to talk about and every citizen and non citizen alike will be flooded with this new "electronic cash". Be prepared for that inflation, because when a CBDC actually happens you'll see your inflation.

So in summary, CBDC will make CBs very powerful, and kind of like an alternative government in their own right. They also want inflation, and lots of it, so helicopter money will be a thing. The good news for us hodlers (capital owners) is that BTC along with other assets will head north and never look back. The bad news is that the people (labor) will lose out in a massive way, but they'll welcome it because it will be like a UBI. Little do they know that the inflation tax will make them worse off and the entire economy will become zombiefied with the cessation of the last remnants of capitalism. This is the decline of the west.  

+2 WOsMerit's



-----

+1 WOsMerit

Because valid reasons




+1 WOsMerit


-----

Quote
The magic of #Bitcoin isn’t the transfer of money to someone 10,000 miles away – it is the transfer of money to someone 10,000 days away.
https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1312011788708392966



+1 WOsMerit



-------

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October 02, 2020, 04:34:19 PM

COVID-19 has now become a fashion symbol, and {P,FL}OTUS just follows the trend. Should boost their popularity. LOL!

He popped the test due to the secret vaccine.
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October 02, 2020, 04:34:46 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

..... how many joints in a lid?

Quote from: Cheech and Chong “Lets Make a Dope Deal”

“One.......I roll big joints man.....”

“AND THE JUDGES SAY THATS OKAY, THEY ROLL BIG JOINTS TOO!!!”
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October 02, 2020, 04:43:10 PM

the morning wall report

#dyor

as kitteh walks on a fence
1h




much resistance to claw back thru with clouds hovering close overhead
4h

#stronghands
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October 02, 2020, 04:52:44 PM
Last edit: October 02, 2020, 05:42:01 PM by JayJuanGee

Just throwing it out there that maybe Trump + wife don’t have covid & it’s a tactical play to help him win the election. Just an idea, either way he’ll be fine because he isn’t 80+ with moderate to severe pre-existing health conditions.

The timing is odd. Trump did say he was taking Hydroxy so he might just be taking over the news cycle so he can claim that he recovered fast w no symptoms due to Hydroxy.

Most likely he is completely fine and doesn't die of covid unless he is hit by a bus. That would be a coronasniffle death of course.

Im just glad he did have something actually dangerous happen to him like a snake bite.  Cheesy

And, I am glad that you, lambie bambie, were able to take the dick of the red-headed twat out of your mouth long enough in order that you could make your so eloquently-stated post (surely, we needed to receive such important information from uie pooie).


Serious question. In the (1 out of 10,000 chance) event that Trump dies, will Pence be forced to nuke China for taking out our Commander in Chief?

Or perhaps Trump could have caught Corona on purpose after doing so badly in the debate. His plan would be to go into a bunker, fight a nuclear war with China, then declare a never ending state of emergency and crowning himself President for Life for the surviving population.


Odds of death would probably be closer to 1/50, maybe even quite a bit greater than that for someone who is in such age group.. maybe even other underlying health factors that might not be being disclosed, also.

On the other hand, if we assume he gets the best of treatment (not blood letting because we are in "modern times"), maybe the odds would lower to something in the 1/100 to 1/200 arena... but 1/10,000 odds seems way too low.

Regarding your second question, of course, you are not serious... should not be treating trolls as if serious, even on the face of the question it could hardly be serious.





Learn to read and learn to count. There was only one question, not two, you retarded trollbot.  Wink 1 out of 10k chance of dying of the sniffles was actually generous, its likely lower.

Who is the retard?  

Of course, lambie bambie.. who elsie?

Just for clarification for your lil brain (to the extent that one exists?)

Question 1:  likelihood that your red headed buddy will not survive a positive covid result in the coming months

Question 2:  consequences of such non-survival, were such non-survival to occur.

I spot my lil selfie a retard, and it is not yours truly.   Tongue Tongue Tongue
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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October 02, 2020, 04:58:26 PM
Merited by sirazimuth (1), VB1001 (1)

..... how many joints in a lid?

Quote from: Cheech and Chong “Lets Make a Dope Deal”

“One.......I roll big joints man.....”

“AND THE JUDGES SAY THATS OKAY, THEY ROLL BIG JOINTS TOO!!!”

correct!

come to think of it, the answer always seems to be one no matter what the amount of weed. hmmm probably time to test those bed sheet size papers now. be back (probably much) later.
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October 02, 2020, 05:11:03 PM

he he

Now, that planB scheme is being widely criticized as unrealistic or even unscientific, the crowd will tend to become much less wild in anticipation...and then btc would outperform.
If everybody are sitting counting their imaginary funds at $100K or above by Dec 2021, it would NOT do it.

If you mean with everybody, the atm 1% or less involved in BTC from current population, then yes we wouldn't get their.... But I see more and more growing intrest... If the model of planB will not work out exactly as he says is probably 100% accurate. But how he sees things, compare things and write them down, thats exactly what people need to see, to understand what BTC is compared with already existing assets and just the S2F talk is something that opens eyes imo.... Of-course BTC probably will not ride the model exactly, still doesn't take away that his point of view is a nice approach and good speculation...

Just to be a bit more clear dude, you likely realize that one of the assumptions underlying PlanB's model is a kind of steadiness in the demand curve aspect of the supply/demand curve.  Since future demand for BTC is NOT really known, PlanB's model assumes demand as a kind of constant... .and PlanB's model is criticized for such holding of demand constant.

Sure, I will concede that "holding of demand constant" is likely a somewhat valid criticism of the stock to flow model because it is actually true that we cannot really know future demand of BTC with any kind of precision.. but still, at the same time, there is a certain level of doing the best with the information that you have, but surely if something BIG happens with demand (in either direction), then such stock to flow model could be shown to having had presumed too much and based on incomplete information.. which surely future demand of BTC is not really any kind of thing to treat lightly, either... but how the fuck are we going to be able to estimate future demand with any kind of precision?

Therefore, in my humble bumble thinking, it does seem to me that Stock to Flow does take a largely reasonable approach to future BTC demand by merely holding such future demand as a constant, and personally I believe that both the: 1) four-year fractal model and also 2) the s-curve exponential adoption model based on networking and Metcalfe principles are good complementary supplement price prediction models to the stock to flow model in order to attempt to probabilistically account for the potential deficiency of the "constant demand" presumption that is embedded within such stock to flow model.
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October 02, 2020, 05:28:06 PM
Merited by 600watt (1)

4 year shift

16x price shift

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October 02, 2020, 05:32:51 PM

Bitcoiners will be able to see what transpires in 14 13 mo, and if btc is below 55K (the lowest prediction value), then the model is invalidated and there are no other models with any predictive value whatsoever.

I like the fact that, finally, S2F is being harshly criticized because, in my mind, it is making the predictive values more likely to be achieved, paradoxically.

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October 02, 2020, 05:38:38 PM

..... how many joints in a lid?

Quote from: Cheech and Chong “Lets Make a Dope Deal”

“One.......I roll big joints man.....”

“AND THE JUDGES SAY THATS OKAY, THEY ROLL BIG JOINTS TOO!!!”

correct!

come to think of it, the answer always seems to be one no matter what the amount of weed. hmmm probably time to test those bed sheet size papers now. be back (probably much) later.

+1 WOsMerit




I get about 25 or so on average. Depends on whats happening and potency to some extent.
I am not sure how many even remember what a lid is or how much it is.

Carry on.
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October 02, 2020, 05:38:45 PM
Last edit: October 02, 2020, 06:21:09 PM by JayJuanGee

EU is going full steam digital €

[etc... etc.... edited out for space-saving purposes..... ]

You are seeming to transition into a behemoth analyzer status, 600w...  Shocked Shocked

satoshi? Is that you?    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Thanks for your ongoing in-depth presentations regarding current underlying bitcoin-related dynamics.  Kiss #nohomo

Interesting to wake up this morning to news like that. Guess even the Presidential "Bubble" didn't keep it out.

Now we get to see what happens when reality invades this little bubble. Good chance he will be fine. Possible chance very sick. Small chance he will be in a coma or ventilator. Which will make for some interesting decisions.

Hm.

Yep.

Even early in the year, while he was telling the populous that the virus was "not a problem" blah blah blah, he was getting tested on a very regular basis, and anyone who was exposed to him was getting tested on a regular basis.

But, like you suggested, lightfoot, the virus does not give two ratt's asses whether you are taking half-assed measures... a bubble, like you said, but NOT anything close to enough of a solid bubble.

They always talk about an "October surprise" during an election year.

Trump gets diagnosed with Covid-19 right on October 1st.

His self-quarantine will last 14 days, and end exactly on the day before his next debate with Biden.

What an utterly...amazing...coincidence.  The odds. Roll Eyes

It could be God himself is writing this story.

Torque does not believe in such god theory(ies), unless god happens to be some kind of a manipulator, who is screwing with various matters just to irk Torque-ie porkie.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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October 02, 2020, 06:03:02 PM

Last few days maybe not looks that good but last quarter was totally fine. 17% growth. Considering Q3 is traditionally bad.

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October 02, 2020, 06:12:46 PM
Last edit: October 02, 2020, 06:42:27 PM by JayJuanGee

https://nypost.com/2020/10/02/chinese-state-media-outlet-mocks-trump-for-contracting-coronavirus/?utm_medium=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=NYPTwitter

CCP asking for it. I bet Trump does something to really piss them off like officially recognizing Taiwan as a country.

A little global uncertainty will be good for King Bitcoin.

I doubt that it is in anyone's interest (especially BTC HODLers) to really be asking for more societal drama in order for king daddy bitcoin to prosper..

Bitcoin would likely be much better served by fewer Armageddon-wannabe scenarios.

Bitcoiners will be able to see what transpires in 14 13 mo, and if btc is below 55K (the lowest prediction value), then the model is invalidated and there are no other models with any predictive value whatsoever.

I like the fact that, finally, S2F is being harshly criticized because, in my mind, it is making the predictive values more likely to be achieved, paradoxically.

That seems to be a bit of a strange claim about the model being supposedly broken if the BTC price is below $55k by the end of next year...

We will see, Biodom, but your claim seems to be a bit strong and wishful on your behalf, Biodom.. I mean in terms of you wanting to proclaim that the model is either worth very little or not worth anything.. and it is as if you are just rooting on an ongoing basis that the model is not true... ...

for what reason, it is difficult to know for sure..

Seems to me that you are just overly bothered by the model and you are ongoingly trying to figure out ways to discount the model and suggest that it adds little to no value to our thinking about BTC price dynamics, no?

Also, it seems to me that BTC prices could be manipulated down for 13-14 months or even extending 2 years from now or longer .. in order to cause the stock to flow model to appear to be broken.. and so what would that ongoing and persistent manipulation accomplish exactly, if it were to happen?  

Seems to me that such ongoing downward manipulation could cause an explosive BTC price move later on down the road, or maybe such ongoing downward manipulation would cause a shifting of the trendline of the model to get pushed downward within the model.. so I am not clear why you believe that such need to potentially tweak the model would necessarily cause the model to be broken or invalid.. because the model is likely NOT guaranteeing as much as you seem to be wanting to argue that such model guarantees.
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October 02, 2020, 06:29:53 PM

Meantime....


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