Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[tadamichi]

I saw a 50% decline towards the end of 2018. I saw a little earlier that the price of Bitcoin is $29k . But now the price of Bitcoin has risen a little again $31k.I have heard that the price of bitcoin may go down further but the price of bitcoin in the Crypto currency market has started to go down day by day. The government wanted to stop bitcoin but could not. However  Soon Bitcoin will return to its previous state. The market situation is very bad so the price of bitcoin has come down a lot. The good news for those of us who work in this cryptocurrency is that Bitcoin is coming soon $60k Will arrive.

But this time we’re running into stagflation, i would suggest expanding your investment time horizon now and not touch margin etc. This could take some time.

[arcmetal]

OK.... What the fuck?

Satoshi Nakamoto wrote production software that has stood up to 13 years of the most difficult pressure a production distributed database could possibly...

... no wait a moment.  That sentence is so amazing already that it can't just be wrapped up with a few more nouns and adjectives.  He invented a trust minimized distributed database.  That in itself is miraculous.  It had never been done before.  And now that it is done, it cannot be reproduced very easily at all.

He knew he had one shot to get it.

And calling it "production software"?  Well it IS that.  But on a level unlike just about anything else in "production".  I suppose software that runs the power grid.  Or perhaps the firmware that runs certain sorts of medical equipment or systems, might come close....

It is art.  But this is not like some moving still life painted by a master.  It's the damned Sistine Chapel.

This is as believable that one person has actually done this, as someone having invented a time machine.  These things don't just work.  You don't spend a weekend typing furiously and coming out with software that will change the world... just like that... version 0.1.

Yes.  There have been bugs.  And there have been tweaks, AND improvements.  AND there are things that could have been different.  Questions that still hang in the air.  Will the disappearing block reward matter?  Will quantum computers break SHA2? Is Craig Wright gay?  Only time will tell.

But consider the ridiculous amount of thought that had to have gone into making something this perfect.  This perfectly balanced.

Who tested it?  Where is the version that crashed.  The version that people played with for a few months before they found the flaw.  Before they figured out a way to profit unfairly.  Right.  That never happened.  The cheaters had to write new software to pull that off... Bitcoin was incorruptible.

A wise man once said "Quick, no time for explanations... give me your pants."

That is, in my humble opinion, as close as anyone has ever come to explaining how this is even POSSIBLE in the first place.

That really is a great summation of the situation.

It does remind of how just a week ago I was explaining it to an anti-bitcoiner, someone who didn't want to get, who was fighting me for some reason, as if I was the one that was causing them anguish for having created bitcoin (I don't know).  Anyways,  I put it to him this way: 

It's not like someone is going to come out next week with something better than the internet.  The internet was a massive achievement, but what would this new thing need to be for everyone to just drop the current internet and start using something else.

His response was:  ... what do you mean??  There has been newer and different internets.  "web 2.0".  Then he holds up his iphone and says look at this new internet on here!

At that point I gave up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[tadamichi]

That really is a great summation of the situation.

It does remind of how just a week ago I was explaining it to an anti-bitcoiner, someone who didn't want to get, who was fighting me for some reason, as if I was the one that was causing them anguish for having created bitcoin (I don't know).  Anyways,  I put it to him this way: 

It's not like someone is going to come out next week with something better than the internet.  The internet was a massive achievement, but what would this new thing need to be for everyone to just drop the current internet and start using something else.

His response was:  ... what do you mean??  There has been newer and different internets.  "web 2.0".  Then he holds up his iphone and says look at this new internet on here!

At that point I gave up.

Hahahahhahahah it’s just embarrassing. But then again, the opportunity cost for choosing to not understand Bitcoin is getting higher every year, whoever wanna afford this luxury so be it. I gave up on convincing people.

[Jaksjol675]

JUST IN - Grayscale and Bitwise are confident a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved soon.


Source : https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1535348174168236032

[Wilhelm]

That really is a great summation of the situation.

It does remind of how just a week ago I was explaining it to an anti-bitcoiner, someone who didn't want to get, who was fighting me for some reason, as if I was the one that was causing them anguish for having created bitcoin (I don't know).  Anyways,  I put it to him this way: 

It's not like someone is going to come out next week with something better than the internet.  The internet was a massive achievement, but what would this new thing need to be for everyone to just drop the current internet and start using something else.

His response was:  ... what do you mean??  There has been newer and different internets.  "web 2.0".  Then he holds up his iphone and says look at this new internet on here!

At that point I gave up.

Hahahahhahahah it’s just embarrassing. But then again, the opportunity cost for choosing to not understand Bitcoin is getting higher every year, whoever wanna afford this luxury so be it. I gave up on convincing people.

A lot of people use technology but have no clue on how it works.
Just like people that can't even tell you where there country is on a globe.

It speaks volumes about the decline of basic education.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ivomm]

I'm not surprised that the price is under 30K again. But I'm quite surprised it is nowhere near the last bottom 25K. Historically, almost every possible bottom of a big crash was being tested and retested in the following days and weeks. Even the two V-type crashes to 3.1K in 2018 and 3.8K in 2019 were followed by restests down to 10% from the bottom. So far we haven't seen a retest to 10% of the bottom, i.e. prices like 27.5K. This alone is a huge exception and it probably means that further lows won't happen in the next few months. But even if we see another retest of 25K, this will only confirm the bottom. May be another bottom around 20K will happen eventually at the end of the year, but not before the bulls are exhausted with some disbelief rally to 40K+.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Meh… to much bullish news for BTC to go UP :-)

[empowering]

Seems to me, what the markets need, is a mass liquidation event.........

[empowering]

Shake out the chaff

[dragonvslinux]

I'm not surprised that the price is under 30K again. But I'm quite surprised it is nowhere near the last bottom 25K. Historically, almost every possible bottom of a big crash was being tested and retested in the following days and weeks. Even the two V-type crashes to 3.1K in 2018 and 3.8K in 2019 were followed by restests down to 10% from the bottom. So far we haven't seen a retest to 10% of the bottom, i.e. prices like 27.5K. This alone is a huge exception and it probably means that further lows won't happen in the next few months. But even if we see another retest of 25K, this will only confirm the bottom. May be another bottom around 20K will happen eventually at the end of the year, but not before the bulls are exhausted with some disbelief rally to 40K+.

Fyi 10% (up) from the bottom of $25,338 is $27,871. Price has already re-tested $28K since then (2 weeks later). While I think a re-test around $27.5K looks pretty likely at this point, given recent price action on shorter-term time-frames, maybe the re-test that was only $129 short of 10% can be considered close enough (or front run even)?

There are still a lot of buy orders @ $28K. I'd expect less since this level has already been tested, so seems like buyers aren't concerned about paying $129 higher than the "usual" re-test of the lows, and are still factoring in that the $25K could well be the low before a considerable rise in price, even if not the absolute low for the year.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Khanvila78]

And then we told them the inflation wouldn't be bad.


https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1535331088154902529

[El duderino_]

Seems to me, what the markets need, is a mass liquidation event.........

The market only always needs a mega pump....

[ivomm]

Meh… to much bullish news for BTC to go UP :-)

Yes, definitely there are too many signs that the bear market is at its end. There are only some hypothetical 'ifs' that could lead to prices around or below 25K again. It is hard to define a bear 4 year cycle since the cycle 2012-2016. We had a 1 year bear market in 2018, followed by a 6 month bull market, which in turn was followed by a 6 month sideways market. And then the covid temporarily crash. But even in that period is evident that the average price moved from 6K to 10K reflecting the increased adoption mixed with heavy manipulation around 10K.

So, I expect something like this: 30K-40K-50K movement of the average price before the next exponential bull run that would lead us to 150K+ in 2025. The blow-off top depends on news like ETF spot approval, or even bigger news like legal tender in USA one day. In that sense, it is much better for the ETF spot approval to be timed with the normal top of the cycle 200K. Then we will have a blow-off top to 400K+ in 2025. Just like we had it in 2017 with the news of CME and CBOE futures, which was a big news for the mass adoption of BTCitcoin. Without it, we would have a more normal top around 10K and the description of a bear cycle after that even more complicated.

[empowering]

Seems to me, what the markets need, is a mass liquidation event.........

The market only always needs a mega pump....

Hmmmm, I dunno bro, I think to get the pump, we may need to crush a load of longs, then the market can go and crush the shorts.


BTC wise, looking at those longs on finex... they surely need culling at some point.


It is the sideeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeways I fear the most... that is the worst of the worst.

[Wilhelm]

Seems to me, what the markets need, is a mass liquidation event.........

The market only always needs a mega pump....

Hmmmm, I dunno bro, I think to get the pump, we may need to crush a load of longs, then the market can go and crush the shorts.


BTC wise, looking at those longs on finex... they surely need culling at some point.


It is the sideeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeways I fear the most... that is the worst of the worst.

+1 Sideways sucks the most