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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26391179 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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May 07, 2023, 05:32:25 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

Not sure why hash rate is falling, you think more people would be throwing what ever hardware they can at it. Total block fees are averaging about 2BTC per block, that about 32% of the block reward!...

yeah ~2 btc fees per block should be a miners dream.

i saw a recent  tx for $10k USD with a $1k fee. 10% fee..

mempool gonna be nightmare fuel for a bit, it was like 200 blocks worth of txs waiting.
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


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May 07, 2023, 05:48:11 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), darkangel11 (1)



Each of those mostly sounds right.. yet any of us might not know if there might be some potential conflict situation in which one or more of the principles is brought into question with some potentially conflicting principles that might be considered as equally, if not more important than the upholding of a seemingly sound principle that might not be as sound as it appears to be on the surface.  

Hello everyone, my vision, facts:
1) green levels are global and strong, they reflect the overall positive mood in the bitcoin world
2) a downtrend has formed - red
Potentially:
1) if it breaks 30k, it will fly up to 50k
2) you can drop to 8k (intersection of red and green)

IMHO

Oh my?  That's really scary.

The BTC price might go up, but if it fails to go up, then it could go down.

Not only scary.. but a reasonable interpretation seems to be that: it really sucks to be a HODLer in these here times, no?


What to do? what to do?



Any advices?

US banks failed causing a decline in global bank stock prices and prompting regulators to take measures to prevent Extra contagion. The failures were triggered by factors such as exposure to cryptocurrency and the selling of Treasury bond portfolios at a large loss.

That sounds like something that a lost bot would say.


Herow.




Are you lost widdo bottie?

[edited out]
If I were to give a % chance of these things happening, I'd say we have a 60% chance that we'll see a breakout to at least 35k by the end of the year,
25% chance we'll stay in this channel of 26k-31k,
10% that we'll drop to retest 19k,
4% chance that we'll go lower than 19k
and 1%, literally 1% chance that we'll see lower low than 15k. Chances of going to 8k are probably something like 0.01%. We'd need a worldwide mining ban or another pandemic to even come close to that.

That said, if we won't reach a lower low by March 2024, chances of this happening will decrease tenfold.

Wow!!!!

Interesting and provocative numbers darkangel11..

I like that you are so specific..


At the same time, something seems wrong about your numbers though.. and maybe even your framework... ... and in some sense, there might be a need to lock in whatever timeframe that you are talking about and even lock in some of the variables.. .. so once you start to say, if this happens then, then you are adding a whole different potential leg.. and it becomes really difficult to deal with predicting more than one leg at a time, even though if we see from now to the end of the year, or even from now until March 2024, either certain prices will be hit (to the upside or the downside) or they won't.... so I am not sure how much muddying that we would like to do with the various changes of the possibilities that might happen at various points between now and March 2024.

Just looking at one factor.. is the bottom in or not... that would be right around $15,479 on November 20, 2022.. so if we just have that one question, you seem to be giving something in the ball park of 99% that the bottom is already in, and so why am I (and even other people) having such a dilemma on that exact question regarding whether or not the bottom is in, if the percentage is 99% that it is in?

So if you are giving such an unrealistically high number that the bottom is already in (from the point of view of this here cat), then something has got to be wrong about your other numbers, no?

Of course, another problem is that there could be both "a breakout to at least $35k" and the bottom not being in... so that seems to be another problem in that you have too many scenarios that you are wanting to present.. and again, I do still like a lot of your numbers, but even though you have placed all the scenarios into the 100% range, you are describing ways in which the numbers end up adding up to more than 100%. so that seems to be a bit of a presentation problem...even though surely I could attempt to better guess what you are trying to say.. but I am too lazy.    Tongue Tongue Tongue Tongue

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
ChartBuddy
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May 07, 2023, 06:01:21 PM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


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May 07, 2023, 06:11:18 PM

Any opinion about the halt of withdraw from Binance? (talking about crisis Tongue) Network really affected by the idiots of NFT ordinals, and new memecoins.

Link or it did not happen.   Angry Angry Angry

You seem to be talking about something temporary... to deal with the fees and the BTC network congestion (backlog) , perhaps?
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May 07, 2023, 06:36:58 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Any opinion about the halt of withdraw from Binance? (talking about crisis Tongue) Network really affected by the idiots of NFT ordinals, and new memecoins.

Link or it did not happen.   Angry Angry Angry

You seem to be talking about something temporary... to deal with the fees and the BTC network congestion (backlog) , perhaps?

It was just temporary.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-closes-btc-withdrawals-amid-congestion-on-the-bitcoin-network

Quote
Crypto exchange Binance closed Bitcoin withdrawals on May 7 due to an alleged overflow of transactions on the Bitcoin network.

Bitcoin mempool was clogged with over 400,000 transactions waiting to be processed at the time of writing.

Quote
Binance tweeted that BTC withdrawals had resumed after nearly an hour of halting. Outflows on the crypto exchange peaked on Sunday, rising to $187 million, according to data from CryptoQuant.



Psycodad posted a quote from that story earlier, but used a hidden link rather than a plain text URL.

...

Rumours are that the very latest increase is not from ordinals but due to this bovine-originated-fertilizer-like BRC20 thingie..:

..
Behind the congestion is believed to be a surge in BRC-20 transactions in the last few days. The trading frenzy on memecoins like Pepe (PEPE) drove Bitcoin transaction fees to their highest point in two years. The PEPE token has jumped over 263% in the past 7 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
..


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May 07, 2023, 07:01:17 PM


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OgNasty
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May 07, 2023, 07:17:18 PM

I’m a bit surprised we aren’t seeing more of a selloff considering how full the mempool is. Maybe the high fees are keeping people from moving their coins to exchanges to sell? I’d be a bit hesitant in the short term here until this market disruption is figured out. It does seem a little bit like the network is under attack.
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May 07, 2023, 07:39:55 PM

Quote
I don't like meme coins, Sam-I-Am
I truly do not give a damn
I do not like them with a dog
I do not like them with a frog

They have no use, no real value
Yet folks buy them, when they're new
Their prices rise and then they fall
Leaving FOMO'd fools with nothing at all
https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1655226506531024903



Quote
While I don't care for memecoins myself, I'll:
* Defend anyone's right to meme and speculate
* Defend anyone's right to bid for block space for whatever use they see fit
https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1655228961402634242

jojo69
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diamond-handed zealot


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May 07, 2023, 07:52:49 PM

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May 07, 2023, 08:01:17 PM


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LFC_Bitcoin
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May 07, 2023, 08:13:23 PM
Merited by fillippone (3), darkangel11 (1)

I’m a bit surprised we aren’t seeing more of a selloff considering how full the mempool is. Maybe the high fees are keeping people from moving their coins to exchanges to sell? I’d be a bit hesitant in the short term here until this market disruption is figured out. It does seem a little bit like the network is under attack.

It’s nothing we haven’t seen and got through before (you’ll obviously remember all the big block nonsense and Ver etc spamming our blockchain).

I’m quite confident we’ve seen the worst now, regarding price. We should trend up towards $40,000 by the time we reach New Year.

Keep HODLING boys.
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精神分析的爸


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May 07, 2023, 08:57:12 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


<snip>

Psycodad posted a quote from that story earlier, but used a hidden link rather than a plain text URL.


Thanks for pointing that out didn't think of that as I myself like the beauty of using the author-link of the quote tag.
I edited the post to add the link in cleartext too and will try to get into the habit of doing that.
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May 07, 2023, 09:01:21 PM


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darkangel11
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May 07, 2023, 09:09:34 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (4), JayJuanGee (1)


Wow!!!!

Interesting and provocative numbers darkangel11..

I like that you are so specific..


At the same time, something seems wrong about your numbers though.. and maybe even your framework... ... and in some sense, there might be a need to lock in whatever timeframe that you are talking about and even lock in some of the variables.. .. so once you start to say, if this happens then, then you are adding a whole different potential leg.. and it becomes really difficult to deal with predicting more than one leg at a time, even though if we see from now to the end of the year, or even from now until March 2024, either certain prices will be hit (to the upside or the downside) or they won't.... so I am not sure how much muddying that we would like to do with the various changes of the possibilities that might happen at various points between now and March 2024.

Just looking at one factor.. is the bottom in or not... that would be right around $15,479 on November 20, 2022.. so if we just have that one question, you seem to be giving something in the ball park of 99% that the bottom is already in, and so why am I (and even other people) having such a dilemma on that exact question regarding whether or not the bottom is in, if the percentage is 99% that it is in?

So if you are giving such an unrealistically high number that the bottom is already in (from the point of view of this here cat), then something has got to be wrong about your other numbers, no?

Of course, another problem is that there could be both "a breakout to at least $35k" and the bottom not being in... so that seems to be another problem in that you have too many scenarios that you are wanting to present.. and again, I do still like a lot of your numbers, but even though you have placed all the scenarios into the 100% range, you are describing ways in which the numbers end up adding up to more than 100%. so that seems to be a bit of a presentation problem...even though surely I could attempt to better guess what you are trying to say.. but I am too lazy.    Tongue Tongue Tongue Tongue

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Just the way I feel about the market in relation to the chart presented by summonerrk. The chart suggested a bearish continuation to 8k is possible, which makes no sense to me.
The timeframe was this whole year.
Yup, IMO there's 99% chance the bottom is in and that is going to go up even more the closer we get to the halving. I feel that the only way to reach a new low is a so called "black swan event" where a strong external factor influences the market, the way covid19 lockdown lin the US made us go to 4k in 2020.
IMO there's nothing wrong with the rest of my numbers. I feel that the external factors like the banking crisis, FED hikes, and SEC lawsuits put so much pressure on the price that we're likely to stay in an extended consolidation.

Like I said yesterday, we couldn't breach 10k resistance for about 12 months in 2019-2020 and this could happen again, with the difference of the resistance being 31k.
My numbers add up to 100% with additional 0.01%. chance of going to 8k (suggested by summonerrk), but again, it's just the way I see the market after holding throughout 2 bear markets (2014 and 2018). Was it really over 100%? I may be drunk today, but the numbers seem to be fine. It's literally 100% when you sum it up with that 0.01 added just for fun.

Last time I said something like that people said I was too bearish, now I feel like you see me as too bullish. I'm confused Cheesy
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May 07, 2023, 09:49:14 PM
Last edit: May 15, 2023, 10:05:20 AM by fillippone
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), bitcoinPsycho (1)

In the meantime, bitcoin is going bonkers with fees:

Almost the same level of fees and block reward:




For the first second n-th’s time in history, a block has more mining fees than block reward!


Weird thing: bitcoin mining difficulty is set to go down to the next adjustment.


A lot of blocks before the end of the epoch, btw.



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May 07, 2023, 10:01:17 PM


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May 07, 2023, 10:20:39 PM

I know everyone in this thread hates shitcoins with a passion so if you see this post, do tell your crypto friends to boycott this BRC20 abomination. Thanks.

I think we may have found our next distraction from the real thing!

It doesn't surprises me how gullible some people really are when it comes to parting ways with their hard earned money! Willing to gamble everything to find a shortcut to financial freedom!

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May 07, 2023, 10:31:28 PM
Last edit: May 07, 2023, 10:59:48 PM by Biodom
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Torque (1), Gachapin (1)

Hugh...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DehQKs2uZ0

A sharp intellect behind a clownish demeanor.
The guy used to run the Eclectica bond hedge fund, made tons of money, 'retired' to the home office, yachts, etc

main points:
a. Says to buy TLT (a paradoxical move)
b. Mentions bitcoin allocation (his words: maybe 4X in the next five years if I remember correctly)
c. Has a "nasty" prediction as to what FED/treasury would do-you won't like it!
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May 07, 2023, 11:01:17 PM


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May 07, 2023, 11:19:44 PM

Observing corn@28,340.

Classic WO game.

Where am I?


Pretty easy I must say.

Given the provided information, where am I going in the next 20 minutes?


 No more hints?
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