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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26403713 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Gachapin
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May 09, 2023, 09:19:39 PM

investors are screwed.

Are they really? I don't feel screwed, but I don't have to send BTC on a daily basis. If I had to pay my employees in BTC, I'd feel a bit screwed.

Let's say we had no ordinals and there were people willing to send a couple satoshis and pay a higher fee than the value of transaction, wouldn't that put us in the same situation? Bitcoin's fee was made for this and there's no real solution, unless we ban ordinals, but then we'll be deciding what is and what isn't allowed.
Rollback taproot?  Tongue


and segwit. let's go full bch retard  Grin

bcash already pumpin
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May 09, 2023, 10:01:17 PM


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May 09, 2023, 11:01:16 PM


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May 09, 2023, 11:51:53 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2), Gachapin (1)

hahahahaha..

Fair enough.  I surely prefer the price to go up rather than down, but many times, I have found that there are many instances in which it is NOT good to run out of fiat to be able to continue to buy on the way down, even when we may well believe that it is not likely to go there.

I don't even know whether I should list all of the times in which I ran out of money or came pretty damned close to running out of money, so when the BTC price dipped and continued to dip and I continued to buy, the amounts that I was buying at or near (what ended up being) the bottom ended up being relatively token amounts.. but I still wanted to keep up the ability to buy on the way down, even if it was ONLY small amount.

Since i am going down this road, I will provide a couple of examples.

In January 2015 BTC prices dipped all the way down to about $156 or something like that, and it stayed there for right around a day or two, and I made one or two purchases.. that were below $200 at about $180-ish.. I mostly did not have any money to buy because I had been buying all the way down from about $400 to $200 and the BTC price kept dipping and/or refused to go up.. and then in about October 2015 when it dipped down to nearly $200.. I was able to buy some BTC, but still not a whole hell of a lot, since I had mostly been buying the whole year when the BTC prices were mostly bouncing between $220 and $270.. and probably spending a large amount of that time below $250.  That whole year (2015), I felt like I had mostly ran out of cash.. and I ended up adding about 20% to 25% to my BTC stash - and even though I spent the whole year with my BTC stash in the negative, I had brought my average cost per BTC down from about $550 in the beginning of the year to about $500 per BTC in the end of the year, and all of that likely made a difference, even though my portfolio was in the negative until about May 2016.. when the BTC price went mostly above my average cost per BTC and for the most part stayed there... (and of course, no guarantees of repetition)..

A more recent example, would have had been in 2022 with my mostly preparing and hoping in the earlier part of the year that the BTC price would (at worst) bottom out around upper $20ks or lower $30ks and I had BTC buy orders down to about $20k-ish that I though would not end up filling, but I was glad to keep them there... and then in about May 2022 when the BTC price dropped so quickly below $35k.. I was like "oh shit... this is not going as anticipated" and I ended up cancelling and restructuring a lot of my buy orders between $21k-ish and $33k-ish and caused them to go down to $19k-ish.. and then ultimately, I had to restructure my bottoms several times.. as we know what happened (and continued to happen in 2022), the dip kept dipping.. and so it felt kind of good to be able to continue to be able to buy, even though I mostly felt bad a lot of the time.. until more recently (earlier this year when we had a pretty damned decent uppity move to get us back above the 200-week moving average.. ..which was actually just below $22k in May 2022 and currently is a bit higher than $26k... so it is nice to get back above it.. even if it is far from guaranteed that "we" are going to stay above it.. in our resumption of UPpity.. and I am hardly going to proclaim to have knowledge that goes much beyond 50/50 when it comes to such a question regarding what are the odds that "we" are able to stay above the 200-week moving average...even though the 200-week moving average has been a pretty damned decent bottom indicator and it has continued to move up through all of bitcoin's history.. and there are not any guarantees in regards to always moving up either.. even though it has been doing so.. "so far."

My punchline has always gravitated towards trying to be able to be prepared financially and psychologically as much as we are able to do for price movements in either direction.. and even the extreme-ass ones... and surely bitcoin has had those kinds of dynamics that I believe to be part of the ways that battles take place with such a disruptive and revolutionary product in which the status quo richie are being removed from their wealth and fighting it all the way.. so the picture is not going to be clean, neat and/or unambiguous along this journey.. and there are likely going to continue to be casualties along the way, and any of us who prefer to NOT be (or become) a casualty should be attempting to keep some value in both camps.. even if we are largely and mostly end up being overly-committed in the camp of dee cornz... in order to maintain financial and psychological health along the path and even in the various end stages.. or places that we may well be wanting to enjoy some of our likely ongoing profits along the way.. (again, no guarantee with our being on the upper levels of the citadel status either)..

I always fall for it.
In 2018 I felt that everything below 10k was a bargain, so I kept buying at 10, 9, 8... then we went to 6 for a while and that's where I run out of money. Then we went to 3 and I thought - fuck that I'm out of here, time to take my mind off of it. There was so much negativity in the air that I just couldn't stand it.

In 2022 I did pretty much the same thing buying from 29k all the way down. In my head it was all simple and easy. We'll go to 30 and bounce back like we did the first time... or we'll go lower into the real bear market territory of 22-23k, which is right above the last ATH (fair level to end the bear market at). I also left myself a last little bit of money in case we dipped a bit below 20k like 18-19k, which was my worst case scenario, but who could've predicted that there's a (un)stable coin owner who decides to buy bitcoin and then dump it all at once to crash the market, or that an exchange owner who meets with SEC chair for a tea is really an insolvent scammer...

So I never manage to get the bottom, I'm too impatient. Every time there's a bear market I handle it better though.

bcash already pumpin

So is BSV - Ver and Faketoshi must be having a party.
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May 10, 2023, 01:05:11 AM
Last edit: May 10, 2023, 01:56:52 AM by Gachapin
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bcash already pumpin

So is BSV - Ver and Faketoshi must be having a party.

haha maybe 2017 allover again...  


fEeS toO hiGh... BtC bRoKen ...  
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May 10, 2023, 02:01:18 AM


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May 10, 2023, 03:01:21 AM


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May 10, 2023, 03:07:48 AM
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May 10, 2023, 05:01:17 AM


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May 10, 2023, 05:53:31 AM

"The 2024 halving could send Bitcoin's price 4-8x higher."

Twitter Thread https://twitter.com/Croesus_BTC/status/1655566037838962691
The key word is "could" as in all other speculations - and here it's just about playing with numbers because x4-x8, in this case, refers to the current price, and if we took the last ATH as a reference value, then we couldn't even write x2 -x4. In fact, his analysis is very simple and has already been seen countless times.

I have to agree with you, and also add.

Why in all this analisys they understimate so much the actual conjucture, or other things involved?, i know they are the predictions bassed pure on graphs analisys and some math, but come on guys we CANT ASSURE this its gonna happen, it was not so lineal in the past and its not gonna be so lineal in the future, if that was so easy to predict and with the halving the price jumps x4 or x8 we can see already now a bull run for people trying to enter and catch that x4, or x8.

But this its clearly not happening right now.

Also the BTC now its really linked with the real economics factors and the real world, so i think we have to be more cautelous.

A big recession in the world or other war like China-Taiwan can blow up all the "analisys", fundamentals also matters.

Are you trying to argue that "it might be different this time" Volgastallion?



hahahahahaha


You must be new here.....





oh wait......






oh golly gee...

maybe u r be newie pooie? 





 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


.....i would really like to know Satoshis opinion on that shit.
Fuck satoshi.

Who cares what he thinks (or thought)?  Can't go crying to daddy satoshi.

We're BIG boys and girls now.... on our own.

 Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry

 Kiss Kiss Kiss Kiss Kiss

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Nah, not crying at all.
I just would like to know, like i wrote.

I also value Gachapin's opinion, by the way. Why shouldn't i?
It's not that if don't like something  i expect everyone else to not like it too  Smiley
because now i'm a BIG boy, too

We each said our part...

no problema.

I had said what I thought about your post...  and you said what you think about it in response to what I had said.. and.. so there you have it.

I will "try not to" hold it your appeal to authority against you...


Perhaps?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

To the extent that my future potential memory of the topic even matters, maybe in one or two years (or 5 or 6 years), I will forget that you even said it?

Perhaps?


and will you forget the trauma that you felt from my seemingly "anti-satoshi" blasphemy?  maybe you will and maybe you won't?


 Wink     Tongue Tongue
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May 10, 2023, 06:01:22 AM


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May 10, 2023, 06:19:58 AM
Last edit: May 10, 2023, 06:31:28 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by coolcoinz (2)

[edited out]
it's up to the market to decide.  
Bitcoin is the most secure database humanity has invented, and the market participants will outbid each other for being able to use it.  

Right now only a bunch of freaks are using it. But wait until mainstream catches up. We have seen nothing yet... (compare it to the internet)
Lookie uie poo-ie.. ...  Shocked Shocked Shocked

All diplomatic (and professional) about the matter.

 Tongue Tongue Tongue
breaking character busted...

be gentle with me #nohomo

From my point of view, it does not seem to be a bad thing to witness some "character variance" in these here parts...


What are we bots?


without feelings, emotions and/or variance?  or abilities to exercise free will for that matter?


wait.....


over last 14 hours we made  788965 - 788879 = 86 blocks  just a bit over 1 per 10 minutes, but the fees were unreal

788886 by ant pool 0 fees

788924 by unknown 1.72 fees

the other 84 were all higher. some over 5 coins.

lets see how long this lasts.

btc at 27,500 still solid under this massive attack

from mining viewpoint

viabtc is paying 128% of a block

or 8 coins per block

so if you got 97% of a block 2 weeks ago  at 31k  coin were worth 30.07k

128% of a block at 27.5 k coins are worth 35.2 k today

so miners are happy

investors are screwed.

and fee structure is still fucked up.

Holy fucking shit Philip.   Shocked Shocked Shocked

On the potentially positive side, I was about to send you a merit because I liked the fact that you provided some seemingly decently good data, ..  

however  whoaza!!!!!, your conclusion that bitcoin is broken is in looney toonie landia.. it's like you are showing that you know bitcoin, and then all of a sudden, you say some pretty dumb-ass shit.. .

in that regard, your data does not even support such a conclusion even if you had actually stated the data accurately.

Think about it.... ponder the matter.... your conclusion is that bitcoin is broken merely because miners are currently making a lot (boat loads) of money.... and that is unfair amounts of money because there are currently a bunch of degen gamblers who are willing to pay whatever it takes to process their little worthless crap. that they believe is going to all pay off for them down the line.. and in the meantime, miners are making a killing and some people (who are on a relatively low budget) cannot even transact.

 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

You need to go back to the drawing board and try to figure out why you are WRRRRRROOOOOOONNNNGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!



Maybe you need to write on the chalk board:




"bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken" "bitcoin is not broken"



until the idea sinks into your wee widdo noggen?



Or might we have some other statement that might work moar better?


such as?  the Boxer theme....


"I will try harder"  "I will try harder"  "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder" "I will try harder"  "I will try harder"



Will that work?

or is there some other statement that might help uie-pooie to learn MOAR better about what is dee cornz and how it dee works?

Or perhaps there is some unlearning that u needs to be doing?



You're a stubborn old fart (#nohomo).. and no doesn't seem to wants to leaurns bout dee bbbbbbeeeeeetttttccccccccoooooiiiiiinnnnnnssssssss.
 
 Angry Angry Angry Angry

investors are screwed.
Are they really? I don't feel screwed, but I don't have to send BTC on a daily basis. If I had to pay my employees in BTC, I'd feel a bit screwed.

You are right coolcoinz.. we are not screwed merely because philip is continuing to exaggerate some bullshit and failing/refusing to recognize and appreciate nuance (and/or reality)... could also be described as spreading FUD...

Yes, there are some people who built their business model and their activities around low on chain transaction fees, and now they might be pondering what to do because they failed to make sure that they have "options"... but that does not mean that "everyone is screwed.. and we are all going to die."  As with anything, there is good and bad from these kinds of developments, including the creation of "pain" that may well inspire some folks to better consider their options, if they had gotten into a pickle because they had been overly reliant on their "on chain fees" staying at around 1 sat per vbyte forever and ever.... or some variant of that.  That's what Roger Ver expected, and you see what happened to him.. he turned into a nutjob (in case he had not already been a nut job prior to turning into one during and after the blocksize wars).

Let's say we had no ordinals and there were people willing to send a couple satoshis and pay a higher fee than the value of transaction, wouldn't that put us in the same situation? Bitcoin's fee was made for this and there's no real solution, unless we ban ordinals, but then we'll be deciding what is and what isn't allowed.
Rollback taproot?  Tongue

You are playing too much into the "bitcoin is broken" theme coolcoinz.. no reason to make drastic changes based on current data/happenings.. even though surely there are some people who are likely considering "other options" including but not limited to creating (and using) lightning network channels.
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May 10, 2023, 07:51:54 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), darkangel11 (1)

[edited out]
I always fall for it.
In 2018 I felt that everything below 10k was a bargain, so I kept buying at 10, 9, 8... then we went to 6 for a while and that's where I run out of money. Then we went to 3 and I thought - fuck that I'm out of here, time to take my mind off of it. There was so much negativity in the air that I just couldn't stand it.

Yes.. it is way easier said than done, and that is why so many of us can relate to mindrust.. and at the time knowing that is not what we are supposed to do when we run out of money, we are not supposed to be selling at the bottom, but it is so difficult NOT to forget the basics, and surely once you sell, it can be a kind of never ending trap that ends up in worse outcomes, even though the pain of having had run out of money is really difficult. and maybe we ONLY have money coming in every two weeks, and we don't even want to use that money to buy more bitcoin because we already feel bad about the negative status of our holdings.. so it surely can take a long time before we are either close to break even, or not so far in the whole or even getting back into profitable territory.

And no one can tell anyone else what they should do, except it would seem that the more times that you go through it, you might end up learning, but it is not easy to learn either because many of us will be buying on the way down and having difficulties to NOT go all in. when we need to hold back a bit of "dry powder"... again easier said than done... like you have experienced on a couple of occasions..

and I will say that even if it can be quite painful every time, there can be quite a bit of relief if your holdings are at least "in profits"... and it could take a few cycles to really get to that status.. and of course, there are no guarantees, either.. so we should all know that there are no guarantees, and therefore, we have to continually manage our risks (finances and psychology) in such a way that we are going to continue to be ok, even when extreme events might happen.. and even though the odds of bitcoin going to zero seem quite unlikely, there is still some need to prepare for some variation of that..even if we don't think it is going to happen so that we want to make sure that even if we might be over invested  the cornz, we are not "so over invested" that we are going to not be able to take extreme drawdowns... .. so there may be (from time to time) some needs to take some of the value off of the table, and it is way better to take some value off of the table when the BTC price is going up rather than down (and other ways of dealing with taking some value off of the table) and each of us has to figure out a kind of methodology that still allows for us to sleep well at night with whatever level of balance that we have decided to take (and have taken, presumptively).

In 2022 I did pretty much the same thing buying from 29k all the way down. In my head it was all simple and easy. We'll go to 30 and bounce back like we did the first time... or we'll go lower into the real bear market territory of 22-23k, which is right above the last ATH (fair level to end the bear market at). I also left myself a last little bit of money in case we dipped a bit below 20k like 18-19k, which was my worst case scenario, but who could've predicted that there's a (un)stable coin owner who decides to buy bitcoin and then dump it all at once to crash the market, or that an exchange owner who meets with SEC chair for a tea is really an insolvent scammer...

I can feel you on those ones.. that's for sure, and there are probably quite a few of us who can feel you in regards to your experiences, and surely it can be difficult to articulate (and sometimes we might not even want to get into specifics of telling our stories, especially if we might have had made a few mistakes that we don't want to discuss publicly.. and hopefully we learn from them, even though I understand that even learning from mistakes is not easy be cause we likely have tendencies to repeat certain mistakes and have difficulties in figuring out how to NOT make the same mistakes or at least figure out ways to attempt to dampen our earlier mistakes so that when we make the future mistakes, we have at least taken some additional safeguards in order to make the hurt a little less..

So I never manage to get the bottom, I'm too impatient. Every time there's a bear market I handle it better though.

That's a good sign to be able to measure improvement(s)... some people make so many mistakes, including that they have trouble measuring exactly the extent of their mistakes, which creates additional frustrations... and not everyone is able to really keep track and to measure the performance of the BTC portfolio (and perhaps other assets too), which is part of the difficulties in figuring out how to correct something that is difficult to measure.  It takes time to learn and to measure.. and some people will calculate that they would rather spend their time in other ways.. besides trying to figure out the exact (or even better ballpark) status of their finances (and likely has psychological implications, too).

bcash already pumpin
So is BSV - Ver and Faketoshi must be having a party.

Enjoy it while they can... hahahahahaha.. those scammers are probably just figuring out how they can dump any pump onto retail.. if it is even possible to accomplish.
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Who is John Galt?
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May 10, 2023, 08:08:12 AM

I would suggest to you to start your own Bitcoin Lightning Node if you want to really understand the difference between LN Layer-2 scaling solutions vs "the other crap out there"

At any time i can settle my LN channel by issue a closing TX on the "Original Bitcoin Blockchain", hence this throws your argument that "as long as bitcoins are in the second layer network, they cannot be controlled in any way by the original bitcoin blockchain"

As for all these BRC-20, like i said before, just another hype for the "dumb fucks" out there!

Thank you, I once again read more about the principles of LN. Indeed, the principles of the second layer turned out to be more complicated than I thought before. And this complexity should prevent other tokens from moving into the second layer of bitcoin. Although OmniBOLT already wants to spam the Lightning Network with its BRC-20 tokens too. https://twitter.com/omni_bolt/status/1364065319287803905
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