ChartBuddy
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September 02, 2015, 10:06:22 PM |
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spud21
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September 02, 2015, 10:18:56 PM |
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Why would the miners not sell their BTC directly for USD (on any exchange), instead of selling it to other Chinese people, who, in turn, would sell it for USD (thus bypassing capital controls)? How would the latter create greater demand for BTC?
Edit: And how exactly would the miners (as in large-scale "business") sell BTC to (Chinese) individuals? Would that not change their legal standing? (genuinely not sure)
Like I said, they have local costs to cover. If they can get a premium for selling in local currency there's a profit in selling at least enough to cover their running expenses for CNY. As for legal standing, I'm as clueless as you are. The Wikipedia article you linked states banks and financial institutions are prohibited from transacting in BTC. A miner is hardly a bank, but what constitutes a financial institution, I can't say. Like I said, miners would likely be wary of irritating the state - even if they are allowed to sell BTC to the public now that might easily change. The zerohedge story says when Xi Jinping came to power he clamped down on the Macau currency control loophole, and many others. The story shows a chart of the Macau GDP crashing after his clamp down, which coincidentally matches the Bitcoin crash starting last summer to last Christmas. The two things might be unrelated but there is at least one Bitcoin ATM in Macau. I doubt the Chinese miners would take the chance of bringing on the wrath of the Chinese government by selling BTC to the public after witnessing what happened to Macau. To be sure, this practice was greattly limited when Xi Jinping came in power and enacted substantial reforms which limited much of this grotesquely open flaunting of Chinese capital account rules. Indirectly, this has led to the recent collapse in Macau GDP - whose businesses no longer booked billions in fake "transactions" - as shown in the chart below:  |
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BlackSpidy
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September 02, 2015, 10:29:39 PM |
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If there is no utility, then the investments are ponzi schemes. What gives Bitcoins their utility value is the ability to record titles and do timestamps of data on the blockchain. With a transaction limit, that utility value is capped at the network transaction capacity. A bitcoin that doesn't scale is like owning land where you are not allowed to develop it or use it for anything other than selling to some other sucker. Some people buy raw land like that in the hopes of use restrictions being relaxed in the future, but it is a huge gamble. That is the State of Bitcoin right now. Without a predictable schedule of blocksize increases, it's just a speculative bet, not an investment.
Exactly! Bitcoin was made to overthrow the old systems, where money was arbitrarily printed at the government's discretion! Now we're facing a similar issue with the block size. That is the among what is holding bitcoin behind, no scheduled block size increase. We have the math, we can figure out an automatic block size limit increase! Man, this debate should have been solved long ago. |
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ChartBuddy
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September 02, 2015, 11:02:54 PM |
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ChartBuddy
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September 03, 2015, 12:05:00 AM |
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spooderman
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September 03, 2015, 01:07:02 AM |
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just here to see if chartbuddy is a legend yet....
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ChartBuddy
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September 03, 2015, 01:07:38 AM |
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BlindMayorBitcorn
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September 03, 2015, 01:29:07 AM |
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40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now? Hey: 230. That's something...  |
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Fatman3001
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Make Bitcoin glow with ENIAC
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September 03, 2015, 01:34:04 AM |
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40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now? Hey: 230. That's something... What happened to you... this time? |
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BlindMayorBitcorn
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September 03, 2015, 01:46:37 AM |
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40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now? Hey: 230. That's something... What happened to you... this time? I done wrong, Fatman. I trolled and evaded and all sorts of ridiculous nonsense. I'm a guilty man  |
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Cconvert2G36
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September 03, 2015, 01:47:17 AM |
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40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now? Hey: 230. That's something...  Cripplecoiners vs CIA Blacklisters Much hand wringing. Price like the topography of Kansas. A portly asian man repeatedly imploring us to notice his cocktail weenie. |
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Fatman3001
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Make Bitcoin glow with ENIAC
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September 03, 2015, 01:49:05 AM |
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40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now? Hey: 230. That's something... What happened to you... this time? I done wrong, Fatman. I trolled and evaded and all sorts of ridiculous nonsense. I'm a guilty man Man! You just have got a demon baby inside you! Don't let the demon baby fly!!! |
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BlindMayorBitcorn
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September 03, 2015, 01:53:59 AM |
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40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now? Hey: 230. That's something... Cripplecoiners vs CIA Blacklisters Much hand wringing. Price like the topography of Kansas. A portly asian man repeatedly imploring us to notice his cocktail weenie. Oh. The deep philosophical divide regarding the governance of an open source protocol. That's been months of fun, that debate. Glad to be home  |
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shmadz
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September 03, 2015, 02:01:17 AM |
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40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now? Hey: 230. That's something... Welcome back! Heh, yeah, 230 ain't bad. Much closer to equilibrium than say, 1000 or 100. Speaking of equilibrium, I think cost of mining is still around 165 from my own experiential calculations. If the price were truly too low, we should see it reflected in a falling hashrate. When the price is too high, the hashrate will increase until the expense of securing the Blockchain roughly equals the economic benefit. Mmmm that maybe wasn't quite so clear, let me demonstrate with pictures...  As you can see, hashrate and price are somewhat correlated. You can see the stagnation in 2012, the big run up in 2013, and now in later 2014 and 2015, the price declines to seek equilibrium with cost. I expect the hashrate should stay relatively flat until some major change in the dynamic (reward halving, block size resolution, BIS confirming that bitcoin will replace the SDR) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Is anyone out there capable of overlaying a time-equivalent price chart on top of that hashrate chart? I think it might look interesting. |
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BlindMayorBitcorn
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September 03, 2015, 02:03:49 AM |
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^How do I upvote this? I think it will take me a while to readjust  |
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ChartBuddy
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September 03, 2015, 02:04:28 AM |
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suda123
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September 03, 2015, 02:17:30 AM |
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40 days and 40 nights among the subreddits. And I'm back. So anything new? Something something about a larger spoon? What are you fellas on about now? Hey: 230. That's something... Cripplecoiners vs CIA Blacklisters Much hand wringing. Price like the topography of Kansas. A portly asian man repeatedly imploring us to notice his cocktail weenie.  **Cripplecoiners vs CIA Blacklisters ** LOL |
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Cconvert2G36
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September 03, 2015, 02:24:27 AM |
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Welcome back! Heh, yeah, 230 ain't bad. Much closer to equilibrium than say, 1000 or 100. Speaking of equilibrium, I think cost of mining is still around 165 from my own experiential calculations. If the price were truly too low, we should see it reflected in a falling hashrate. When the price is too high, the hashrate will increase until the expense of securing the Blockchain roughly equals the economic benefit. Mmmm that maybe wasn't quite so clear, let me demonstrate with pictures... As you can see, hashrate and price are somewhat correlated. You can see the stagnation in 2012, the big run up in 2013, and now in later 2014 and 2015, the price declines to seek equilibrium with cost. I expect the hashrate should stay relatively flat until some major change in the dynamic (reward halving, block size resolution, BIS confirming that bitcoin will replace the SDR) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Is anyone out there capable of overlaying a time-equivalent price chart on top of that hashrate chart? I think it might look interesting. My personal impression is that hash rate is dictated by price and (more importantly?) technology, with rate reacting to price and not the inverse. The two big ramps were directly related to a paradigm shift in mining tech, CPU to GPU, and GPU to ASIC. With ASIC gear becoming increasingly efficient we will probably see a rise in hashrate even in the face of a flat or modestly declining price. The upcoming halving should be pretty interesting for those watching this relationship. |
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shmadz
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September 03, 2015, 02:35:28 AM |
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^How do I upvote this? I think it will take me a while to readjust Over here all we got is +1 ... I can't do an overlay on my phone (actually I probably could, but I don't know how) Anyways, here is rough abstraction of how I expect price and hashrate to correlate.  Something like that I guess? |
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