Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Missed a day and didn't miss much... currently $912USD (Bitcoinaverage).

Down a little but any dip below $900 doesn't last long.

Consolidation is probably a good thing. Time to just sit back and watch.

[Darker45]

I'm not sure if I pray for bitcoin to soar high again or not so I can buy more. I'm waiting for my next damn salary. 

[gembitz]

The rest of the world seeing that the Chinese exchanges were fake volume will either now realize that the jump in price was not due to Chinese rushing to get their money out of China or they will spin it as the Chinese government has cracked down on Chinese Bitcoin purchases and they are now moving their money in other ways.

My confidence in the media points to them choosing the latter.

The recent China dialog was just a rehash of the mtgox fallout with a little fluff added for good measure...

===> *imho* >> India has been the 5000lb Gorilla driving the price up if you didn't already know! ;-)

[European Central Bank]

===> *imho* >> India has been the 5000lb Gorillia driving the price up if you didn't already know! ;-)

where's the evidence for that? what indian volumes there are are pitiful and the price sky high. that points to not very many coins being bought.

[gembitz]

===> *imho* >> India has been the 5000lb Gorillia driving the price up if you didn't already know! ;-)

where's the evidence for that? what indian volumes there are are pitiful and the price sky high. that points to not very many coins being bought.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/04/news/india/india-cash-crisis-rupee/



 


^google it!

[GreekGeek]

===> *imho* >> India has been the 5000lb Gorillia driving the price up if you didn't already know! ;-)

where's the evidence for that? what indian volumes there are are pitiful and the price sky high. that points to not very many coins being bought.

try google trends---> bitcoin   (in India)    

[DaRude]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

No, I'm not trolling. Some simple math:

Say the network capacity is 15000 transactions per hour before the difficulty increase.  Now the difficulty jump reduces capacity by 17%. So now capacity is 2550 transactions per hour less. Now assuming transaction demand remains the same, in 12 hours you'll amass 30k transactions above capacity which go into the mempool.

So that alone explains more than half of the effect. No need to postulate a "spam attack". Any slight (10%) increase in demand at the same time would account for another 18k transactions making that 48k transactions, almost your measure 55k.

Wait even with you math, a sudden consistent spike of 10% in volume across the board right at the time of difficulty adjustment looks normal to you?
Now just a hypothetical, if you had limited resources and were to trying to spam the blockchain how exactly would you approach or perhaps time your attack?  

[soullyG]

===> *imho* >> India has been the 5000lb Gorillia driving the price up if you didn't already know! ;-)

where's the evidence for that? what indian volumes there are are pitiful and the price sky high. that points to not very many coins being bought.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/04/news/india/india-cash-crisis-rupee/



 


^google it!

https://coin.dance/volume/localbitcoins/INR

[European Central Bank]

try google trends---> bitcoin   (in India)    

that's all positive but what matters when it comes to price is buying on exchanges. on btcxindia 'india's leading bitcoin exchange' there were five trades in the last two hours amounting to about 1.3 btc in total.

wowzers. but they could be total nobodies for all i know.

localbitcoins is more relevant but those figures are still only $400,000 or so a week. i'm sure india will be an ever bigger deal but not right now.

[HI-TEC99]

try google trends---> bitcoin   (in India)    

that's all positive but what matters when it comes to price is buying on exchanges. on btcxindia 'india's leading bitcoin exchange' there were five trades in the last two hours amounting to about 1.3 btc in total.

wowzers. but they could be total nobodies for all i know.

localbitcoins is more relevant but those figures are still only $400,000 or so a week. i'm sure india will be an ever bigger deal but not right now.

Japan's taking over as a volume leader. Today its top exchange (coincheck) has 7922 BTC volume, but coincheck isn't even on bitcoinity. The only working JPY exchanges on bitcoinity are the kraken and localbitcoins.

https://coincheck.com/exchange

24h Volume
7922.5185 BTC

[gembitz]

>.>

https://coin.dance/volume/localbitcoins/INR

>>>move along kid..NOTHING^ to see here!

 

[gembitz]

<_<
Japan's taking over as a volume leader. Today its top exchange has 7922 BTC volume, but coincheck isn't even on bitcoinity.

https://coincheck.com/exchange

24h Volume
7922.5185 BTC

^of course ~ Mark Kerpeles is free!!! 

[HI-TEC99]

<_<
Japan's taking over as a volume leader. Today its top exchange has 7922 BTC volume, but coincheck isn't even on bitcoinity.

https://coincheck.com/exchange

24h Volume
7922.5185 BTC

^of course ~ Mark Kerpeles is free!!!  

Bitcoinity still has an MtGox chart page up. Maybe they've kept it open in case Mark Karpeles starts MtGox up again.

https://bitcoinity.org/markets/mtgox/JPY

[Sundark]

<_<
Japan's taking over as a volume leader. Today its top exchange has 7922 BTC volume, but coincheck isn't even on bitcoinity.

https://coincheck.com/exchange

24h Volume
7922.5185 BTC

^of course ~ Mark Kerpeles is free!!!  

Bitcoinity still has an MtGox chart page up. Maybe they've kept it open in case Mark Kerpeles starts MtGox up again.

https://bitcoinity.org/markets/mtgox/JPY

Or it is Mark Karpeles who is originator and ringleader behind Bitcoinity. Do we have full info about people behind Bitcoinity?
They could keep keep MGox charts on because, whatever you can say, it is historic data.

[bitcoinvest]

Mt.Gox is History people,
and if you want to know (i think you already know)some news, https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/

here you can ask Mark if he is or not behind the website you wrote before.

The truth is that he had in past many domains i can't recall all of them.

Can someone tell me why we have not volume here   https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny

[HI-TEC99]

Can someone tell me why we have not volume here   https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny

The dev who controls bitcoinwisdom hasn't posted anywhere in over a year. It's probably running on automatic, If anything breaks there's probably nobody around to fix it. This quote's from the bitcoinwisdom announcement thread.

...I'm honestly starting to wonder if u/BitcoinWisdom has left the project behind to focus on other things, considering that there hasn't been any appearance in here (or on twitter) for about a year by now, while in the past, he was always fast to respond to questions/feature requests.

[yefi]

Japan's taking over as a volume leader. Today its top exchange (coincheck) has 7922 BTC volume, but coincheck isn't even on bitcoinity. The only working JPY exchanges on bitcoinity are the kraken and localbitcoins.

Japanese volume doesn't get mentioned so much, but it's the one that's been on the ascendant. Bitflyer FX has done nearly 50K today, although they are currently zero fee, so...

[HI-TEC99]

Japan's taking over as a volume leader. Today its top exchange (coincheck) has 7922 BTC volume, but coincheck isn't even on bitcoinity. The only working JPY exchanges on bitcoinity are the kraken and localbitcoins.

Japanese volume doesn't get mentioned so much, but it's the one that's been on the ascendant. Bitflyer FX has done nearly 50K today, although they are currently zero fee, so...

Coincheck charges fees so its volume is *probably* real. Coinmarketcap has put it at third place for volume today. It's put Bitflyer into the exchanges marked with a * because they don't charge fees.

[vgo]

Back to reality,

[molecular]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

No, I'm not trolling. Some simple math:

Say the network capacity is 15000 transactions per hour before the difficulty increase.  Now the difficulty jump reduces capacity by 17%. So now capacity is 2550 transactions per hour less. Now assuming transaction demand remains the same, in 12 hours you'll amass 30k transactions above capacity which go into the mempool.

So that alone explains more than half of the effect. No need to postulate a "spam attack". Any slight (10%) increase in demand at the same time would account for another 18k transactions making that 48k transactions, almost your measure 55k.

Wait even with you math, a sudden consistent spike of 10% in volume across the board right at the time of difficulty adjustment looks normal to you?
Now just a hypothetical, if you had limited resources and were to trying to spam the blockchain how exactly would you approach or perhaps time your attack?  we might be sending real users away to altcoins/paypal/...

I'm not ruling out a spam attack, what you say is correct.

I just don't like the going from "woah, there's 50k tx in the mempool" to "it must be a spam attack" when any 10% fluctuation in demand would explain it because this "jumping to conclusions" is really diverting the view from the actual problem we have here: namely that we might be sending real users away to altcoins/paypal/....

I don't want that happening, but I'm pretty sure it is.

Postulating a spam attack (because it doesn't look "normal") everytime we hit the usage ceiling negates the existence of this problem and effectively diverts energy from solving it. I offered a different view that explains what's happening as quite "normal" so we can focus on the problem at hand: not enough capacity.