Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gembitz]

<_<
Japan's taking over as a volume leader. Today its top exchange has 7922 BTC volume, but coincheck isn't even on bitcoinity.

https://coincheck.com/exchange

24h Volume
7922.5185 BTC

^of course ~ Mark Kerpeles is free!!!  

Bitcoinity still has an MtGox chart page up. Maybe they've kept it open in case Mark Karpeles starts MtGox up again.

https://bitcoinity.org/markets/mtgox/JPY

^well duhhh ~ of course mtgox gives EVERYONE their coins back!    lolll omggg

[1713544960]

1713544960

[1713544960]

1713544960

[1713544960]

1713544960

[1713544960]

1713544960

[1713544960]

1713544960

[1713544960]

1713544960

[DaRude]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

No, I'm not trolling. Some simple math:

Say the network capacity is 15000 transactions per hour before the difficulty increase.  Now the difficulty jump reduces capacity by 17%. So now capacity is 2550 transactions per hour less. Now assuming transaction demand remains the same, in 12 hours you'll amass 30k transactions above capacity which go into the mempool.

So that alone explains more than half of the effect. No need to postulate a "spam attack". Any slight (10%) increase in demand at the same time would account for another 18k transactions making that 48k transactions, almost your measure 55k.

Wait even with you math, a sudden consistent spike of 10% in volume across the board right at the time of difficulty adjustment looks normal to you?
Now just a hypothetical, if you had limited resources and were to trying to spam the blockchain how exactly would you approach or perhaps time your attack?  we might be sending real users away to altcoins/paypal/...

I'm not ruling out a spam attack, what you say is correct.

I just don't like the going from "woah, there's 50k tx in the mempool" to "it must be a spam attack" when any 10% fluctuation in demand would explain it because this "jumping to conclusions" is really diverting the view from the actual problem we have here: namely that we might be sending real users away to altcoins/paypal/....

I don't want that happening, but I'm pretty sure it is.

Postulating a spam attack (because it doesn't look "normal") everytime we hit the usage ceiling negates the existence of this problem and effectively diverts energy from solving it. I offered a different view that explains what's happening as quite "normal" so we can focus on the problem at hand: not enough capacity.

That's funny cause actions like these cause the exact opposite reaction in me. Like every time there's blatant spam attack some BU supporter hilariously attempts to claim that it's normal organic growth. To a point where they lose all credibility and i find myself automatically starting to assume that it's shilling. Not that it can't be organic growth just because there's so much attempt at disinformation as if someone is trying too hard

[European Central Bank]

so china's volume is now piddly, though of course it's very early there. does this mean we're now immune to 'china bans'? it's gonna be a very different market from now on no matter what happens.

now we'll just have to rely on more bitfinex hacks instead .

[molecular]

That's funny cause actions like these cause the exact opposite reaction in me. Like every time there's blatant spam attack some BU supporter hilariously attempts to claim that it's normal organic growth. To a point where they lose all credibility and i find myself automatically starting to assume that it's shilling. Not that it can't be organic growth just because there's so much attempt at disinformation as if someone is trying too hard

The sad state of the bitcoin community.

2 camps and no meaningful discussion can take place because both sides assume the other side to be somehow evil.

[rjclarke2000]

So what's the sentiment at the moment?  I am a bit confused what's been going on.

Are we all ok?

Mostly sideways for a while? I'm not feeling bullish or bearish.

[600watt]

so china's volume is now piddly, though of course it's very early there. does this mean we're now immune to 'china bans'? it's gonna be a very different market from now on no matter what happens.

now we'll just have to rely on more bitfinex hacks instead .

wait a second. great conclusion. it means that PBOC crippled their ability to send the price down by forcing the the chinese exchanges to show their real volume.

 

[PoolMinor]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

No, I'm not trolling. Some simple math:

Say the network capacity is 15000 transactions per hour before the difficulty increase.  Now the difficulty jump reduces capacity by 17%. So now capacity is 2550 transactions per hour less. Now assuming transaction demand remains the same, in 12 hours you'll amass 30k transactions above capacity which go into the mempool.

So that alone explains more than half of the effect. No need to postulate a "spam attack". Any slight (10%) increase in demand at the same time would account for another 18k transactions making that 48k transactions, almost your measure 55k.

Wait even with you math, a sudden consistent spike of 10% in volume across the board right at the time of difficulty adjustment looks normal to you?
Now just a hypothetical, if you had limited resources and were to trying to spam the blockchain how exactly would you approach or perhaps time your attack?  we might be sending real users away to altcoins/paypal/...

I'm not ruling out a spam attack, what you say is correct.

I just don't like the going from "woah, there's 50k tx in the mempool" to "it must be a spam attack" when any 10% fluctuation in demand would explain it because this "jumping to conclusions" is really diverting the view from the actual problem we have here: namely that we might be sending real users away to altcoins/paypal/....

I don't want that happening, but I'm pretty sure it is.

Postulating a spam attack (because it doesn't look "normal") everytime we hit the usage ceiling negates the existence of this problem and effectively diverts energy from solving it. I offered a different view that explains what's happening as quite "normal" so we can focus on the problem at hand: not enough capacity.

That's funny cause actions like these cause the exact opposite reaction in me. Like every time there's blatant spam attack some BU supporter hilariously attempts to claim that it's normal organic growth. To a point where they lose all credibility and i find myself automatically starting to assume that it's shilling. Not that it can't be organic growth just because there's so much attempt at disinformation as if someone is trying too hard

It could be "organic" because the Chinese are trying to find the "exit" prior to the New Year's celebration.

[Killerpotleaf]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

No, I'm not trolling. Some simple math:

Say the network capacity is 15000 transactions per hour before the difficulty increase.  Now the difficulty jump reduces capacity by 17%. So now capacity is 2550 transactions per hour less. Now assuming transaction demand remains the same, in 12 hours you'll amass 30k transactions above capacity which go into the mempool.

So that alone explains more than half of the effect. No need to postulate a "spam attack". Any slight (10%) increase in demand at the same time would account for another 18k transactions making that 48k transactions, almost your measure 55k.

Wait even with you math, a sudden consistent spike of 10% in volume across the board right at the time of difficulty adjustment looks normal to you?
Now just a hypothetical, if you had limited resources and were to trying to spam the blockchain how exactly would you approach or perhaps time your attack?  we might be sending real users away to altcoins/paypal/...

I'm not ruling out a spam attack, what you say is correct.

I just don't like the going from "woah, there's 50k tx in the mempool" to "it must be a spam attack" when any 10% fluctuation in demand would explain it because this "jumping to conclusions" is really diverting the view from the actual problem we have here: namely that we might be sending real users away to altcoins/paypal/....

I don't want that happening, but I'm pretty sure it is.

Postulating a spam attack (because it doesn't look "normal") everytime we hit the usage ceiling negates the existence of this problem and effectively diverts energy from solving it. I offered a different view that explains what's happening as quite "normal" so we can focus on the problem at hand: not enough capacity.

That's funny cause actions like these cause the exact opposite reaction in me. Like every time there's blatant spam attack some BU supporter hilariously attempts to claim that it's normal organic growth. To a point where they lose all credibility and i find myself automatically starting to assume that it's shilling. Not that it can't be organic growth just because there's so much attempt at disinformation as if someone is trying too hard

difficulty adjusted up 15%, the only reason the mem pool was under control was because miners where adding hash power like trump adding jobs and minning blocks 15% faster before.

this isnt "growth" or an "attack"

this is the backlog of DOOOOM 

[JayJuanGee]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

^na it's real i have one i've been waiting on over 6hours ...zzz  

Of course the blockage is real.

Over the past several months, I have had several transactions that took 10 hours or more to go through, and I had a few transactions that took more than 30 hours.

Each of those transactions had more than sufficient fees; however, they were done while some kind of a spam attack was taking place, and therefore transactions were delayed.

Yes, there are some kinds of expectations that blocks are going to be full (because of organic growth), but these major spikes are not blockages due to organic growth, but instead they are purposeful spam attacks, and that should be obvious from the level of their spikes.


Whether and how to deal with it, and how big of a problem they are may be another story.

I understand that sometimes folks are going to become concerned that their transactions are not going through, and in that regard, they may be prejudiced by such delays.. .especially, if they were counting on the transaction going through quickly (like within an hour or two)... One thing that I have attempted to do is to just prepare myself for the possibility that any transaction could be delayed by a considerable amount of time because of these kinds of blockages.

One time (about a month and a half ago or so), I had a guy selling me bitcoins during one of these attacks, and he was a regular face to face and trusted person (more or less trusted), and the next day when he came back to do the second transaction, I told him that the first one had not gone through yet, and since I trusted him, I did not mind doing another one, but I was going to charge him 1.5% more.. on the transaction. so it was up to him whether he wanted to do the second transaction.  He said that he preferred to do the transaction because he needed the money, and we did it.  The funny thing about that one was that the attack seemed to continue to be going on, and within about 4 minutes, the second transaction went through, but the first one was still pending for nearly 24 hours (at that time).  Both transactions had more than sufficient fees, but the second one went through a lot quicker due to mere coincidence, it seems to me (the first one ultimately went through at about 31 hours).  

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

No, I'm not trolling. Some simple math:

Say the network capacity is 15000 transactions per hour before the difficulty increase.  Now the difficulty jump reduces capacity by 17%. So now capacity is 2550 transactions per hour less. Now assuming transaction demand remains the same, in 12 hours you'll amass 30k transactions above capacity which go into the mempool.

So that alone explains more than half of the effect. No need to postulate a "spam attack". Any slight (10%) increase in demand at the same time would account for another 18k transactions making that 48k transactions, almost your measure 55k.

I doubt that difficulty has anything directly to do with fewer transactions going through.  The more important metrics seem to be how many blocks are being processed per hour and whether those blocks are full or not.  I still stick by my assertion that such a sudden spike seems most logically to be a spam attack.

[PoolMinor]

So what's the sentiment at the moment?  I am a bit confused what's been going on.

Are we all ok?

Mostly sideways for a while? I'm not feeling bullish or bearish.

You should be feeling very cautious given the extreme drop-off of volume coupled with a week long holiday from the country that was buying the most BTC for the last 8 years.

[Killerpotleaf]

i'm quite bearish

[Meuh6879]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

they will learn that the bitcoin fees are cheaper than ... the exchange fees.

[Killerpotleaf]

I doubt that difficulty has anything directly to do with fewer transactions going through.  The more important metrics seem to be how many blocks are being processed per hour and whether those blocks are full or not.  I still stick by my assertion that such a sudden spike seems most logically to be a spam attack.

th dif went up 15% in <1 nano second, you need to understand that.

this was a huge dif incress, this indeed did significantly slow down the rate at which blocks are produced.

[Killerpotleaf]

BTW china called and they said you can have your bitcoins back now.

[PoolMinor]

I doubt that difficulty has anything directly to do with fewer transactions going through.  The more important metrics seem to be how many blocks are being processed per hour and whether those blocks are full or not.  I still stick by my assertion that such a sudden spike seems most logically to be a spam attack.

th dif went up 15% in <1 nano second, you need to understand that.

this was a huge dif incress increase, this indeed did significantly slow down the rate at which blocks are produced.

I concur

[JayJuanGee]

I feel $890 will be the resistance point for this drop, but I question whether we will be able to hit it.
I think if we drop to $880 then a large sell off will occur. Funny thing is the drop isn't coming from china, but they are following.

I'm not ballsy (read: stupid) enough to have fiat sitting around on exchanges to take advantage of little dips like this.

I know there are ways of insta-buying BTC, but none of them are available to me, so I'll be watching from the sidelines again...

I think that your first word, "ballsy" was more accurate.

I don't know where you are at, but maybe you should imagine what would happen to bitcoin prices if no one put any money on exchanges?

They are a necessary evil and it seems necessary at this time in bitcoin's life that some folks need to take some of those risks in order for bitcoin's price to be upheld... because prices seem to be largely set by exchanges.

[noobtrader]

oh price has returned to 888 now....   

[PoolMinor]

oh price has returned to 888 now....    

Next stop 3888 cny


Edit:

http://www.chinahighlights.com/travelguide/special-report/chinese-new-year/

[Killerpotleaf]

[sugarbaby]

Below support, is where the hollow earth is...