Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[underground_]

Yes, but those very whales have been taking recent weekends off. On the other hand, if this is really the biggest and baddest capitulation of 2012, 2013 and probably all of 2014, then yes we could crash big this evening or this weekend.

Because I plan only one set of relatively low risk and highly profitable (should events unfold as planned) round-trip trades per capitulation, I really don't have to pay attention to the embedded day trading opportunities.

Well, things seem to be going exactly as you've been saying for the last few weeks, so you'll probably take much more profit than I will. But as we saw when someone placed a $2.1M market order to drive the price from $220-240, whales are capable of acting just as irrationally and unpredictably as anyone else. So long as there are entities with 10k+ btc it seems risky to me to be holding btc for any significant length of time during the start of a downtrend. But, I'm probably just rationalizing for the fact that my biggest weakness is that I can't sit still.

Thanks for posting, btw. You've been very helpful.

[zemario]

Chewing on that wall, we all know that will be slowly eroded until it collapses. Where is the right spot to buy? The next wall if forming at 85...

It's not where, but when. Wherever the price is at around 8 PM Eastern time on Monday... that's the price to buy at.

why? The bid volume is much greater than the ask volume and that haven't stopping the price from slowly droping? Why would it suddenly go up on monday.

[phoenix1]

So long as there are entities with 10k+ btc it seems risky to me to be holding btc for any significant length of time during the start of a downtrend.

Agreed ... thats why I prefer to take a small loss and walk away than to sit with a position that was intended to be short term and did not pan out

[Piper67]

Chewing on that wall, we all know that will be slowly eroded until it collapses. Where is the right spot to buy? The next wall if forming at 85...

It's not where, but when. Wherever the price is at around 8 PM Eastern time on Monday... that's the price to buy at.

why? The bid volume is much greater than the ask volume and that haven't stopping the price from slowly droping? Why would it suddenly go up on monday.

This is a long weekend in Japan, from Friday to Monday. The next working day there is Tuesday, so the Japanese banks will be closed until then. That means there cannot be any new fiat (dollars, euros, yen) going into MtGox for another three days. Now, there could be money sitting in MtGox but not on the order books... just like there could be BTC there and not on the books. We don't know how much of each there is. But we do know that for the next three days BTC can move in and out of Gox easily, fiat can't. That puts downward pressure on the price, until the banks open Tuesday morning and people start seeing their deposits going through.

[adamstgBit]

Chewing on that wall, we all know that will be slowly eroded until it collapses. Where is the right spot to buy? The next wall if forming at 85...

It's not where, but when. Wherever the price is at around 8 PM Eastern time on Monday... that's the price to buy at.

why? The bid volume is much greater than the ask volume and that haven't stopping the price from slowly droping? Why would it suddenly go up on monday.

This is a long weekend in Japan, from Friday to Monday. The next working day there is Tuesday, so the Japanese banks will be closed until then. That means there cannot be any new fiat (dollars, euros, yen) going into MtGox for another three days. Now, there could be money sitting in MtGox but not on the order books... just like there could be BTC there and not on the books. We don't know how much of each there is. But we do know that for the next three days BTC can move in and out of Gox easily, fiat can't. That puts downward pressure on the price, until the banks open Tuesday morning and people start seeing their deposits going through.

if the price is 103 on monday you're still buying right?

[seleme]

Someone's defending 90 very hard 

Who knows, maybe they'll make it, same price was defended on similar way few weeks ago, though in an upward trend.

[seleme]

Chewing on that wall, we all know that will be slowly eroded until it collapses. Where is the right spot to buy? The next wall if forming at 85...

It's not where, but when. Wherever the price is at around 8 PM Eastern time on Monday... that's the price to buy at.

why? The bid volume is much greater than the ask volume and that haven't stopping the price from slowly droping? Why would it suddenly go up on monday.

This is a long weekend in Japan, from Friday to Monday. The next working day there is Tuesday, so the Japanese banks will be closed until then. That means there cannot be any new fiat (dollars, euros, yen) going into MtGox for another three days. Now, there could be money sitting in MtGox but not on the order books... just like there could be BTC there and not on the books. We don't know how much of each there is. But we do know that for the next three days BTC can move in and out of Gox easily, fiat can't. That puts downward pressure on the price, until the banks open Tuesday morning and people start seeing their deposits going through.

Fiat could always be moved to another exchange or currency exchange website and then moved to gox. It's a problem but not one that couldn't be solved.

[adamstgBit]

Someone's defending 90 very hard 

Who knows, maybe they'll make it, same price was defended on similar way few weeks ago, though in an upward trend.

not sure you can call a vertical drop all the way down to 50 an upward trend...

[SAQ]

Fuck that. 9,000 on 90 now.

I say we are going to the mooon guys.

 

[EuroTrash]

Fuck that. 9,000 on 90 now.

I say we are going to the mooon guys.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

[phoenix1]

Fuck that. 9,000 on 90 now.

I say we are going to the mooon guys.

 

Send me a postcard  

EDIT : Shit ... supposed to be watching TV now

[Digikeys]

I tend to think we are going to test 50 again...

[SAQ]

Fuck that. 9,000 on 90 now.

I say we are going to the mooon guys.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

I don't know. I don't know why, I just think 79 was the bottom for this round. the move from 80 to 97 was similar to the move from 50 to 70. i.e huge buys followed by huge walls. Moreover, the price has been going sideways for a few hours. That usually seems to mean a change of direction.

Either these bid wallers know something we do not, or, we are being fooled.

[just1nmc]

Fuck that. 9,000 on 90 now.

I say we are going to the mooon guys.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

I don't know. I don't know why, I just think 79 was the bottom for this round. the move from 80 to 97 was similar to the move from 50 to 70. i.e huge buys followed by huge walls.

I am thinking either these bid wallers know something we do not, or, we are being fooled.

I'm voted for fooled for right now.. there's no bid depth other than that wall. Doesn't seem like that many people are ready to buy yet

[KillaMarci]

Who the hell is buying at those prices...


Sometimes I don't understand this market at all. I swear.

[EuroTrash]

Just to prove us all wrong, someone put a market order for 95. This could start an early rally...  

[Creenome]

Fuck that. 9,000 on 90 now.

I say we are going to the mooon guys.

 

Not sure about the moon. But it's definitely a start!

[arepo]

And yet another triangle. Duh ... make that one hour - not four hours as it says in the immutable image below.

how did you come up with a downward direction here? i see the triangle, but triangle formations themselves tend not to have directional bias. by my analysis we've reached a short-term bottom.

[EuroTrash]

Gox must be loving this. So much money in fees made today...

[SlipperySlope]

I am considering a limit sell order in case some big, 9000+ BTC buyer says damn all to slippage over the weekend. Biased to the downside for three days, sell at say $105 this weekend, anticipating a buy back on Monday morning below $90?