Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[elux]

Forget the Chinese news, Bitcoin on btcchina.com is already cheaper than on mtgox again.

Yeah. "Nothing to see here people, move along..."

Here is yet another news article on Bitcoin, today from xinhuanet - a news media in China directly controlled by the party.
There are clearly pushing Bitcoin to the public

http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/info/2013-05/06/c_132361304.htm

There's no way the Chinese populace would be interested in a disinflationary virtual currency, right! Right?  

Hint hint: http://brontecapital.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/macroeconomics-of-chinese-kleptocracy.html

Especially not when the friggin state news agency goes and instructs them to pay attention.

But... Why? It makes absolutely no sense, right! Or does it?


Could mass adoption of disinflationary money-supply digital currency be the (missing) key to continued depreciation of the yuan?

--> [Read. This. Now.]

In general:

• Could a government ensure sustained competitiveness of industry and exports by embracing mass adoption of cryptocurrency?
• Could a government promote cryptocurrency as a giant, real-life Gold sink?


Per Wikipedia, The Chinese government banned using virtual currency to buy real-world items in 2009 but, crucially, not the reverse.


Currency War.

[SlipperySlope]

So, you think the capitulation is over and we are on the way up?

Man, bulls turning bears and bears turning bulls, I'm really puzzled

As everyone here probably knows, I am a long term bull attempting to multiply my bitcoins by trading this bubble, which compels me to adopt bearish tactics as the opportunity presents.

[Rampion]

So, you think the capitulation is over and we are on the way up?

Man, bulls turning bears and bears turning bulls, I'm really puzzled

As everyone here probably knows, I am a long term bull attempting to multiply my bitcoins by trading this bubble, which compels me to adopt bearish tactics as the opportunity presents.

Then we have the same strategy. I'm also trying to multiply my BTC trading this bubble, but not selling any BTC, only buying (last time I tried to sell I sold at $80.5 hoping to buy back at $70ish just a few days ago, you know how that worked out )

I really expect a bigger correction during this week, selling pressure is quite high, and obviously new money stopped pouring in (or it just slowed down when compared to the times we were in parabolic growth).

[SlipperySlope]

I really expect a bigger correction during this week, selling pressure is quite high, and obviously new money stopped pouring in (or it just slowed down when compared to the times we were in parabolic growth).

When traders say that bitcoin has passed from weak hands to strong ones, they are describing a mechanism that prolongs a bubble collapse.

Certain traders holding losing positions (the weak hands) stop-loss sell to new buyers who can withstand a bit of a drop (the strong hands), until the latter in turn sell as they become the weak hands - right?

I believe that the bubble collapse will take the approximately the same duration as the bubble expansion phase - approximately three months. Plenty of time for more capitulations before the final bottom of this bubble - I think.

[Rampion]

I really expect a bigger correction during this week, selling pressure is quite high, and obviously new money stopped pouring in (or it just slowed down when compared to the times we were in parabolic growth).

When traders say that bitcoin has passed from weak hands to strong ones, they are describing a mechanism that prolongs a bubble collapse.

Certain traders holding losing positions (the weak hands) stop-loss sell to new buyers who can withstand a bit of a drop (the strong hands), until the latter in turn sell as they become the weak hands - right?

I believe that the bubble collapse will take the approximately the same duration as the bubble expansion phase - approximately three months. Plenty of time for more capitulations before the final bottom of this bubble - I think.

I have bids all the way down, from $115 to $32. I really don't think they will be all filled (that would be too good to be true, I would be really surprised and pleased if we go below $50), but during the last crash I learned that I have to follow my own lessons. That means that is important not to let greed to take over - I thought I could sell my hard earned BTC during the crash to buy them later cheaper - and I failed miserably selling them at the very bottom, and had to buy back at a considerable loss. I promise this won't happen again. I will just hold on the mofos, and I will take the chance to buy at every dip.

[Rampion]

Ask sum slowly creeping down

[Richy_T]

Stamp is date and time in unix time with with microsecond precision of the last change.

Oh, I figured the unix time thing. I just wasn't sure what it signifies.

[DougTanner]

Slow and steady rise for the past 3 days.

[el_rlee]

For 1btc to be worth $300k, it would mean that bitcoins has a market cap of 330 trillion dollars. That is, 330 trillion dollars would need to be spent in buying bitcoins. That is not going to happen. Not this year, not this decade, probably not even this century unless we get an American Zimbabwe.

An American Zimbabwe? That's a mathematical Certainty. Questionable however is the time frame.

[SAQ]

Bit boring watching the price right now.

There hardly seems to be any selling. The 124 is relentlessly being pursued. Quite a bit of resistance around 122. Little resistance around 124 - 125, just bears sitting there waiting to be eaten.

I think not much is going to change until late afternoon.

[Rampion]

Bit boring watching the price right now.

There hardly seems to be any selling. The 124 is relentlessly being pursued. Quite a bit of resistance around 122. Little resistance around 124 - 125, just bears sitting there waiting to be eaten.

I think not much is going to change until late afternoon.

I say Wednesday is the day in which we will see where we are heading at.

[SlipperySlope]

Stamp is date and time in unix time with with microsecond precision of the last change.

Oh, I figured the unix time thing. I just wasn't sure what it signifies.

A few months ago I wrote a Java websocket/socket.io client for Mt. Gox that processes the depth chart to explore my notions about depth and tick data. The ChartBuddy 3-D depth chart periodically posted here shows the time dimension like I wanted - so no point in going further. But I did learn enough about the Mt. Gox API to very deeply appreciate the cleverness employed by Clark Moody who ties together Mt. Gox trades and depth changes.

The Mt. Gox HTTP API allows the client to poll the server in order to obtain partial or the full depth list of bids and asks. Then its websocket/socket.io API allows the client to subscribe to trades, depth changes, and lag. Subsequently the client receives notification of depth changes, which is the change and new amount of the limit bid or ask orders at a certain price at a certain time, i.e. the time the limit order was issued/cancelled. What is crazy is that Mt. Gox drops the connection, or otherwise loses synchronization between the trades and the depth chart. Clark Moody's realtime charting app dynamically fixes all this up. Its not precise - but it is very satisfactory, by polling the server to replace the client depth info when it gets out of sync.

I can answer detailed protocol questions about the Mt. Gox API as regard to charting data, but not much at all regarding the trading functions.

[Richy_T]

Not difficult to parse. Only arbitrary.

The 260ies marked the on-trend inevitable climax (which had to happen somewhere, and happened to happen there) of of the trend, not an outlier of that trend.

Discarding the last, crucial day in favour of the day before (which was not an outlier? if so, why?) seems disingenous.

[...]

You are saying you can use any wick and/or candle, without your method providing guidance.

And proceed to arbitrarily discard any inconvenient data, after you've found a pattern you like.

It is this need to discard data you don't like for the pattern to hold that I find worrying.

In the Erisian Archives is an old memo from Omar to Mal-2: "I find the Law of Fives to be more and more manifest the harder I look."

[bixcoin]

BTW, what does everyone think the top will be before we dive downwards again?

I say 180

I say 150

[Multifarious]

[...] or leaves me with $220k funny money, and my remaining bitcoins valued at $300k/BTC in October, 2013.

Lol.  Go take an anti-delusion pill.

It should be obvious that anyone *really* believing the cruft you write wouldn't be selling, at any time, ever, for whatever reason.

Ergo, you don't believe this crap yourself.

I dunno, a ride up to 300k is gonna be a bumpy ride.

For 1btc to be worth $300k, it would mean that bitcoins has a market cap of 330 trillion dollars. That is, 330 trillion dollars would need to be spent in buying bitcoins. That is not going to happen. Not this year, not this decade, probably not even this century unless we get an American Zimbabwe.

So much bad math on this board.

3e5 * 1e7 = 3e12 = $3,000,000,000,000 = 3 trillion.

But I agree, in general, with the sentiment. I don't see the market cap of bitcoin being 3 trillion by the end of the year. I think we could see $10k, which is a market cap of ~$100 billion.

[SlipperySlope]

BTW, what does everyone think the top will be before we dive downwards again?

I say 180

I would feel even more confident about my bitcoin bubble assumptions if the price did not exceed $145 again before the final bottom.

[Richy_T]

So, you think the capitulation is over and we are on the way up?

Man, bulls turning bears and bears turning bulls, I'm really puzzled

Have you ever seen a medium perform where they're saying they hear a voice, it's Susan, maybe Sarah. She's your mother, no grandmother, maybe a childhood friend?

Gotta be able to turn on a dime in the prediction business.

[Rampion]

BTW, what does everyone think the top will be before we dive downwards again?

I say 180

I would feel even more confident about my bitcoin bubble assumptions if the price did not exceed $145 again before the final bottom.

I pretty much agree with you again. If we go again to $160 I would be puzzled. Heck, I think the normal thing would be not going over $125 before the final bottom.

[SlipperySlope]

Gotta be able to turn on a dime in the prediction business.

That just about sums up trend-following TA.

[phoenix1]

BTW, what does everyone think the top will be before we dive downwards again?

I say 180

I would feel even more confident about my bitcoin bubble assumptions if the price did not exceed $145 again before the final bottom.

I pretty much agree with you again. If we go again to $160 I would be puzzled. Heck, I think the normal thing would be not going over $125 before the final bottom.

I also like $125'ish for the top ... I just don't trust this rally at all and am not convinced it's got much more life in it