Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ImI]

Bcash cost of production (difficulty) is now being slashed by 20% per block for the next 6 blocks. Expect miners to follow cost of production slavishly. Forking guys have no idea what they have unleashed ... it will become apparent soon now.

Yes, the existence of BCH will destabilize BCT mining.  

Everyone knows that at equilibrium, if BCH has 1/10th the value of BTC, that the hash power mining BCH will be 1/10th that mining BTC.  

What is less obvious what happens when the system is not in equilibrium. Imagine that the market reprices BCH 100% higher and BTC 10% lower.  What is the expected distribution of hash power now assuming short-term profit-maximizing miners?  

The answer is "most of it will be mining BCH." Because the difficulty adjusts only very slowly (every 2016 blocks) BCH becomes twice as profitable to mine as BTC.  Hash-per-hash miners would earn double by mining BCH.  This continues until the difficulty reset comes when BCH would go "limit up" (4X), when most miners would leave BCH back for BTC.  BCH's difficulty would slowly ratchet back down due to its fast difficulty adjustment and the process would later repeat.  

What this suggest is that at times when BCH is more profitable to mine and the hash rate migrates to BCH, the average block time for BTC will increase significantly and BTC's already slow and expensive transactions will become much more so.  

What do you know, Marcus, it worked.

It will work until there is someone willing to spend their BTC and pay miners to mine BCH. When they run out of BTC that's the end of the road for the BCH circus.

Ah i remember, just like you predicted ETH to fail when it was going for 1$.   

[Ibian]

You don't buy BCH. That's silly.

It comes free just by holding your BTC.

Not for people who are buying BTC after the fork occurred, they get nothing for free. And the BCH cartel knows this. They know that in order for BCH to survive into the future, it's not enough to have existing holders. They must have new buyers, now and into the future. For decades. And someone's got to buy all the existing free BCH coins being traded for BTC.

Ain't gonna happen.

Ver still has an ungodly wad of coins sitting on Bitfinex, if the story is to be believed. This might not be over yet.

It's not over. That type of people always double down. And when it doesn't work they double down harder.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Not for people who are buying BTC after the fork occurred, they get nothing for free. And the BCH cartel knows this. They know that in order for BCH to survive into the future, it's not enough to have existing holders. They must have new buyers, now and into the future. For decades. And someone's got to buy all the existing free BCH coins being traded for BTC.

Ain't gonna happen.

And by not dumping BCH, existing holders are helping it to survive.
Not taking sides in a war is usually smart, but not always, and this is one of those exceptions.

[doc12]

from the perspective of a wrong-way driver it really looks like all the others are wrong.

visions can and should compete. but playing foul/malicious games that will hurt peoples life savings is one big ego trip. where are your contributions towards bitcoin to address the problem you describe?  didn't´t get merged? why?  

You need to step out of the Theymos controlled foras and gain some perspective, because you are confused.  Right now there are two bitcoins: Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Core.  

Presently, Core has the advantage.  That might change however.

Like I said earlier, it is unlikely that both will survive long-term, unless one of them changes PoW.

No there ist just one bitcoin you greedy little dipship and I give you a hint, its not your scamcoin. You and your motherfuucking fraudster club are just one disgusting piece of shit.

[ImI]

You don't buy BCH. That's silly.

It comes free just by holding your BTC.

Not for people who are buying BTC after the fork occurred, they get nothing for free. And the BCH cartel knows this. They know that in order for BCH to survive into the future, it's not enough to have existing holders. They must have new buyers, now and into the future. For decades. And someone's got to buy all the existing free BCH coins being traded for BTC.

Ain't gonna happen.

Ver still has an ungodly wad of coins sitting on Bitfinex, if the story is to be believed. This might not be over yet.

Satoshi and people like WinkleVii, Tim Draper, and Loaded have an ungodly amount of BCH ready to dump at any time. Checkmate?

You mean this Satoshi? -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=532.msg6306#msg6306

[d_eddie]

We need more throughput. It is that simple.

Right.

We have segwit now, and it is not enough.

Of course it isn't. Segwit just makes a little additional blockchain space available. The throughput will come from L2/L3 solutions: Sidechains, Lightning Network, whatnots. A multitude of L2+ solutions can be at work at the same time. That's where I hope to see competition for new ideas - not on the basic protocol, which IMO should stay as resilient and lean as possible.

If you have a better alternative than segwit+bigger blocks, feel free to share. Clonecoins would not even matter if we already had the benefit they chose to incorporate.

Just as an example of a better alternative, on this thread a few days ago someone posted a link to a new technology which could be plugged in at L2, just below LN and therefore pushing it to L3. It would allow opening multiple (shared) payment channels with a single blockchain transaction. The idea can be improved, but already as it is, it could significantly improve on the problem, rightfully bannered by Jbreher, of opening and closing a channel for every human on earth (impossible with 1 MB blocks. Or 2 MB, or 8 MB, for that matter).

It's not that I expect this particular gimmick to be the final solution, but it does show a lot of work is being done. A constellation of partial solutions can very well ease us into the L2 era. I think that's where the future is headed.

[itod]

Im not getting why you people are panicking over shitfork.

Because of this:

Bitcoin is the ledger of not-previously-spent, validly signed transactions contained in the chain of blocks that begins with the genesis block (hash 000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f), follows the 21-million coin creation schedule, and has the most cumulative double-SHA256-proof-of-work.

You can curse him as much as you want, but that CIA employee is right about the definition. Verbal consensus is worth nothing, the only consensus mentioned in the Whitepaper is the consensus which chain has more POW.

I'm not saying there is a reason to panic, but this is full-blooded attack on what we consider BTC. They will probably fail (hopefully), but you can't say they are not trying.

It is possible that either the whitepaper is wrong, or that interpretation of the whitepaper is wrong.

Will we find out in the real world, perhaps?


Surely the longest chain with the most POW is important - however, there is also quite a bit of importance that is given to the various networking effects that support bitcoin.

Accordingly, there could be temporarily more POW on a chain that is not recognized by the community - and that longer POW could exist for a while.  Surely, after some passage of time, if the community continues to NOT support that artificially inflated chain (and perhaps the artificially inflated chain has more POW because they changed what is POW), then likely the longest POW is going to revert to the chain that has the most community supporting it.... So in the end, my point is that there is some value to assign to the support of the community that goes beyond mere textbook definitions of longest POW = bitcoin.

You may be right, don't forget when I wrote this, at the peak of the attack:



At that point total BTC + BCH hashrate was 9.98 Eh/sec, BTC had 3.29 and BCH 6.69. Everyone knew the miners will go back to BTC eventually, but BCH having > 67% hashrate at that moment was more than a scary.

[Peter R]

Any thoughts on how high the next BCH rally will go?  I'm thinking we might hit 0.8 temporarily, and then crash.  I don't think we'll spike above 1.0 on the next wave.  At this stage, I think anything over 0.4 is a good place to take profits.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

This thing will pump, Bob. You know it and I know it. Why even consider dumping now?

Oh heck. I'm not dumping yet. Just getting everything loaded and locked, so to speak.

The price is utter crap right now and totally not worth it.

I dumped BCH at .18, totally convinced I wasn't the dumbest one in the room. Live and learn. Ideally.

snip

Haha.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Any thoughts on how high the next BCH rally will go?  I'm thinking we might hit 0.8 temporarily, and then crash.  I don't think we'll spike above 1.0 on the next wave.  At this stage, I think anything over 0.4 is a good place to take profits.

That depends solely on how many wash trades will take place during the next "rally".

[itod]

Any thoughts on how high the next BCH rally will go?  I'm thinking we might hit 0.8 temporarily, and then crash.  I don't think we'll spike above 1.0 on the next wave.  At this stage, I think anything over 0.4 is a good place to take profits.

Your shilling is starting to get naive.

[Last of the V8s]

@realLudvigArt
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2395208.0

[doc12]

Any thoughts on how high the next BCH rally will go?  I'm thinking we might hit 0.8 temporarily, and then crash.  I don't think we'll spike above 1.0 on the next wave.  At this stage, I think anything over 0.4 is a good place to take profits.

Sorry man this is "Wall Observer BTC/USD" go shilling your Shitcoin in the Altcoin-Section.  

IMO people like you are destroying or at least harming satoshis vision.

[600watt]

Any thoughts on how high the next BCH rally will go?  I'm thinking we might hit 0.8 temporarily, and then crash.  I don't think we'll spike above 1.0 on the next wave.  At this stage, I think anything over 0.4 is a good place to take profits.

Your shilling is starting to get naive.

one must be desperate to publicly sink that low.

[becoin]

So... Time to mine a block is spiking again...
Did core or anybody come with a solution or this time we are iced for good? Anybody knows?

Solution for what?

[ragnar0k]

So... Time to mine a block is spiking again...
Did core or anybody come with a solution or this time we are iced for good? Anybody knows?

Solution for what?

My understanding is that they reduced the difficulty again forking today on BCH and probably they will keep doing it...
So profitability for BTC will remain down indefinitely, leading us back to >24h for a transaction - but this time we have no real hope for the situation to improve
https://www.bitcoinabc.org/november

or did I miss something?

[Last of the V8s]

^ blocks are back to normal.
blockchain.info
fork.lol
unrelated
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=92.0

[ImI]

or did I miss something?

yes.

[Hyperjacked]

You don't buy BCH. That's silly.

It comes free just by holding your BTC.

Not for people who are buying BTC after the fork occurred, they get nothing for free. And the BCH cartel knows this. They know that in order for BCH to survive into the future, it's not enough to have existing holders. They must have new buyers, now and into the future. For decades. And someone's got to buy all the existing free BCH coins being traded for BTC.

Ain't gonna happen.

Ver still has an ungodly wad of coins sitting on Bitfinex, if the story is to be believed. This might not be over yet.

Satoshi and people like WinkleVii, Tim Draper, and Loaded have an ungodly amount of BCH ready to dump at any time. Checkmate?

Not checkmate IMO. It just means it will be incredibly volatile until the coins get disbursed.
And what trader doesn't like volatility  

[Lopumbo]

^ blocks are back to normal.
blockchain.info
fork.lol
unrelated
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=92.0

difficulty of BCH is now adjusted every! block and smoothly. No supersonic spikes in "blocks found per hour". Important update imo so that both chains work properly (in their technical limits )

so for the next week BCH will most likely be more profitable.

So get used for high fees and >100K unconfirmed transactions for a while and place your bets