Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Phil_S]

The poll seems too wide-range now, less than a week away.

Let's play a quick game (no prizes just fun) - name your prediction for 31/12/2017 at 23:59:59 GMT on Bitstamp.

I say $17111.

[HairyMaclairy]

I dont put much stock in events. I just read charts. There are many negative events during an uptrend or positive events during a downtrend and they fail to break the underlying trend. Only when the trend is already ready to be reversed and the whales were already there waiting for an excuse to dump or buy will it reverse. Otherwise youll see only a pinbar that goes past the trend but quickly and strongly reverses.

Lets take silk road for example. Terrible news as any. But it was clear on the very first day that it wasnt breaking the uptrend. It didnt turn the daily chart into a mess.

The millions of johns and joes getting on a train dont have a clue what any of these events mean. We simply just started running out of johns and joes.

If it was just one Fluke event on Friday you'd see more volume, a stronger recovery, and a better daily chart.

Tera:   I give you a fair amount of stick but I appreciate your thoughtful analysis.  It is a good counterweight to my natural bullishness.  Don’t let anyone dissuade you from doing what you do. 

[rjclarke2000]

The poll seems too wide-range now, less than a week away.

Let's play a quick game (no prizes just fun) - name your prediction for 31/12/2017 at 23:59:59 GMT on Bitstamp.

I say $17111.

$1673

[HairyMaclairy]

The poll seems too wide-range now, less than a week away.

Let's play a quick game (no prizes just fun) - name your prediction for 31/12/2017 at 23:59:59 GMT on Bitstamp.

I say $17111.

$1673

$1340

[Phil_S]

But you are all missing (at least) one zero! 

[bitserve]

The poll seems too wide-range now, less than a week away.

Let's play a quick game (no prizes just fun) - name your prediction for 31/12/2017 at 23:59:59 GMT on Bitstamp.

I say $17111.

$1673

$1340

$266

Happy XMAS everyone!

[Phil_S]

Oh no.

[TERA2]

$11111.11

[milkshock100]

I dont put much stock in events. I just read charts. There are many negative events during an uptrend or positive events during a downtrend and they fail to break the underlying trend. Only when the trend is already ready to be reversed and the whales were already there waiting for an excuse to dump or buy will it reverse. Otherwise youll see only a pinbar that goes past the trend but quickly and strongly reverses.

Lets take silk road for example. Terrible news as any. But it was clear on the very first day that it wasnt breaking the uptrend. It didnt turn the daily chart into a mess.

The millions of johns and joes getting on a train dont have a clue what any of these events mean. We simply just started running out of johns and joes.

If it was just one Fluke event on Friday you'd see more volume, a stronger recovery, and a better daily chart.

It wasn’t a fluke it was a concerted attempt to test the foundations of the market and the market held very firm and hasn’t been anywhere near that point since.

[explorer]

The poll seems too wide-range now, less than a week away.

Let's play a quick game (no prizes just fun) - name your prediction for 31/12/2017 at 23:59:59 GMT on Bitstamp.

I say $17111.

$1673

$1340

I picked 12k-14k on the poll when it was posted, so to keep within that theme, $13603. 

[TERA2]

I dont put much stock in events. I just read charts. There are many negative events during an uptrend or positive events during a downtrend and they fail to break the underlying trend. Only when the trend is already ready to be reversed and the whales were already there waiting for an excuse to dump or buy will it reverse. Otherwise youll see only a pinbar that goes past the trend but quickly and strongly reverses.

Lets take silk road for example. Terrible news as any. But it was clear on the very first day that it wasnt breaking the uptrend. It didnt turn the daily chart into a mess.

The millions of johns and joes getting on a train dont have a clue what any of these events mean. We simply just started running out of johns and joes.

If it was just one Fluke event on Friday you'd see more volume, a stronger recovery, and a better daily chart.

It wasn’t a fluke it was a concerted attempt to test the foundations of the market and the market held very firm and hasn’t been anywhere near that point since.

It doesn't look like it held firm to me. The volume was lower than the past 3 major drops (its supposed to increase) and the recovery over the next 3 days was rather weak compared to previous. Just look at a daily chart to see what I mean.

[milkshock100]

I dont put much stock in events. I just read charts. There are many negative events during an uptrend or positive events during a downtrend and they fail to break the underlying trend. Only when the trend is already ready to be reversed and the whales were already there waiting for an excuse to dump or buy will it reverse. Otherwise youll see only a pinbar that goes past the trend but quickly and strongly reverses.

Lets take silk road for example. Terrible news as any. But it was clear on the very first day that it wasnt breaking the uptrend. It didnt turn the daily chart into a mess.

The millions of johns and joes getting on a train dont have a clue what any of these events mean. We simply just started running out of johns and joes.

If it was just one Fluke event on Friday you'd see more volume, a stronger recovery, and a better daily chart.

It wasn’t a fluke it was a concerted attempt to test the foundations of the market and the market held very firm and hasn’t been anywhere near that point since.

It doesn't look like it held firm to me. The volume was lower than the past 3 major drops (its supposed to increase) and the recovery over the next 3 days was rather weak compared to previous. Just look at a daily chart to see what I mean.

Anyone ‘heeding your warnings’would be 10% down right now

[HairyMaclairy]

The poll seems too wide-range now, less than a week away.

Let's play a quick game (no prizes just fun) - name your prediction for 31/12/2017 at 23:59:59 GMT on Bitstamp.

I say $17111.

$1673

$1340

I picked 12k-14k on the poll when it was posted, so to keep within that theme, $13603. 

Fark I missed a zero.  $13,400

[luckygenough56]

After colour coins and country coins, the new trend in 2018 will be bitcoin fork coins

B2X is a well balanced fork, 2.5 min block, segwit and 4 mb blocks....not sure about the change of algo tho.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Everybody is bearish as fark. Y'all are frightening me.

[bitserve]

Ok.  Sure we can speculate about how many BTC that folks have here, and no one needs to admit anything...  and therefore, I am going to suggest to you, bitserve, that you are way off in your estimations of jbreher.  His behavior is not consistent with someone who owns 5 digits or even 4 digits for that matter.  You even indicated that there is a bit of irony in his "going the wrong way" with Bcash bullshit - and furthermore, if you consider his methodology in trading, that would certainly not be consistent with folks having either 5 digits or even 4 digits of BTC.

Regarding the point about anyone can do what they like with their BTC, I surely do agree; however, I stick with my point that giveing away so much value and lack of consistency to be "crazy ass" unless he lives in some kind of commune type of culture, and in that regard, it would be a kind of thing that everyone in that community does... yet I really doubt that is the case with jbreher.  Instead, I think that he is inconsistently giving away such BTC in an inconsistent manner because there is some kind of screw loose in the whole logic, and really it is kind of unbelievable that a rational person would do this - even though I am a bit inclined to believe that he is not making it up, for some strange reason, I believe that he really is doing this irrational and outrageous thing that he claims to be doing.    

I said 4 digits as a big probability and MAYBE even (low) 5's... as in I would not be surprised at all if it were as much as 5, but my bet is on (a well in) 4. Again, this is just pure speculation and let's just take into account it doesn't represent in any way what anyone does or doesn't actually holds, which is really none of my business.

Regarding his trading style, with small spreads, I think it is in fact consistent with a well funded trader. When each of those trades is a good amount you don't really need a lot of spread to make significant profits plus you can split the funds into much more and smaller orders than if you are using bigger spreads -that could turn into little "walls" and influence the market behaviour with smaller fishes trying to "frontrun" your orders-.

I think jbreher is a very logical and rationale person for the most part. It it is just the "going full bigblocktard" stuff which makes me question and try to understand his rationale on that decision. I think maybe, just maybe, there is something to learn there... If I wanted to live in a echo chamber I would just talk to myself and ignore everyone else that (even slightly) disagrees with my opinions.

I can't neither consider his "XMAS giving" as irrational. For sure there is some obvious inconsistency in the fiat value of that one BTC from past years but first and foremost it is just his fucking business

I could even speculate and come up with a plausible explanation for the rationale behind it but... again... let's just mind our own business?

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

This is a fun game. I speculate HarryMaclairy has exactly 178 Bitcoins.

[flynn]

The poll seems too wide-range now, less than a week away.

Let's play a quick game (no prizes just fun) - name your prediction for 31/12/2017 at 23:59:59 GMT on Bitstamp.

I say $17111.

$1673

$1340

I picked 12k-14k on the poll when it was posted, so to keep within that theme, $13603. 

Fark I missed a zero.  $13,400

$18017

One must go against this general bearish sentiment ...

[HairyMaclairy]

From my perspective it’s not a bearish sentiment, it’s a recognition that there’s limited new liquidity on the exchanges due to the public holidays and difficulty transferring fiat up to 31 January.  We also have to deal with the 2X fork on the 28th.

If the poll date was 15 January I would’ve given quite a different answer.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

From my perspective it’s not a bearish sentiment, it’s a recognition that there’s limited new liquidity on the exchanges due to the public holidays and difficulty transferring fiat up to 31 January.  

If the poll date was 15 January I would’ve given quite a different answer.

Pft. You are a huge bear. Admit it.

Meanwhile, this spread is still getting to me. Even at a couple hundred bucks it seems someone could make a million dollars a day just buying on Finex and selling on Stamp. I know I'm missing something.

Edit: now the spread is gone. Ok then.