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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (9.1%)
8/4 - 16 (13.2%)
8/11 - 7 (5.8%)
8/18 - 6 (5%)
8/25 - 8 (6.6%)
After August - 72 (59.5%)
Total Voters: 121

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26485331 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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January 15, 2018, 08:18:35 PM

Sideways is boring, cmon we need drama we re addicted to that  Tongue

It's getting a little bit weird at this point. Since I joined this space there have rarely been periods (atleasy periods that lasted this long) where bitcoin was going kind of sideways in a slightly bearish fashion. Of course we can't forget the gains we've had last year but it still feels so not like bitcoin.

Hmm like the 2014-2015 period ...


Bitcoin continues to traverse through unchartered territory while showing previous patterns.

Accordingly, each period is different from previous periods, since bitcoin is a work-in-progress with development and also influences from the broader crypto space (whether positively or negatively), and to assert that something is "so not like bitcoin" seems to be attempting to lock bitcoin into some kind of fantastical vision.

In any event, it is way too fucking early to be ascribing a "bearish fashion" to our current BTC market dynamics, unless you are trying to pump some other nonsense or imply that bitcoin is dead or even attempting to suggest that we are in the beginnings of a bear market... Get a grip.  We cannot figure out that either the bull market is over or that we are entering into a bear market or that we are trending towards bear, until some time plays out. 

Accordingly, we have been in a bitcoin bull market for more than 2 years, and currently we are in the midst of nearly a one month correction (consolidation), so it remains very unclear which way this consolidation is going to break or how long such consolidation is going to last.

For anyone who bought  more than 4 months ago, you are sitting in stupendous gains, but if you bought more recently, your position could be a bit more precarious.  I certainly am not going to proclaim that i know any kind of exactness regarding the direction of this particular market, but even correcting down to $8k would remain fairly bullish - even while it is seeming that such extensive correction is becoming less and less likely ... UP?  DOWN? SIDEWAYS?  I would not get too excited until we break either below $12,500 or above $17,500 and even then we have further support and resistance in broader channels of $10k and $20k... Until we break in any kind of meaningful way, we are in "noise" territory, and there is nothing really here to write home about, except perhaps to continue to fight off the fantastical claims that try to argue that we are currently in anything other than a consolidation.. or asserting that we are trending one way or another, based on such consolidation - except maybe suggesting more likely that we remain in a bull market, until convincing evidence to the contrary can be identified... where is such evidence?
bonipper
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January 15, 2018, 08:41:49 PM

I was just reminded that today is a banking holiday in the US. That's likely contributing to the underwhelming action.

This is also apparently when Wall Street hands out bonuses. Expect to see some fresh money entering the game later this week.


Confirmed by BobLawblaw.

Did i miss something? Grin whats special about the 18th?

Approximately the time fiat wires from January bonuses should begin hitting exchanges for trading.

In theory.
JayJuanGee
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January 15, 2018, 08:59:48 PM

I'll just re-state, we may also, theoretically, see a trend upwards beginning on or around February 18th, after tech-sector bonus wires start hitting exchanges.

First quarters are shaping up to be bearish/volatile periods for Bitcorn, with upward cycles beginning Q2-ish.


Non-bullish is not the same as "bearish"... it be more aptly called:  "consolidation"   Tongue Tongue
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January 15, 2018, 09:04:13 PM

I'll just re-state, we may also, theoretically, see a trend upwards beginning on or around February 18th, after tech-sector bonus wires start hitting exchanges.

First quarters are shaping up to be bearish/volatile periods for Bitcorn, with upward cycles beginning Q2-ish.


Non-bullish is not the same as "bearish"... it be more aptly called:  "consolidation"   Tongue Tongue

I refer to them as "periods of opportunity"
mymenace
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January 15, 2018, 09:10:35 PM




Torque
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January 15, 2018, 09:13:25 PM

I'll just re-state, we may also, theoretically, see a trend upwards beginning on or around February 18th, after tech-sector bonus wires start hitting exchanges.

I got to be brutally honest here, where did this bullshit rumor come from? Seems like some fake news that whales would put out there so that newb traders go long on margin and get rekt.

First quarters are shaping up to be bearish/volatile periods for Bitcorn, with upward cycles beginning Q2-ish.

Agreed. I don't think we'll see much action until March.
Syke
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January 15, 2018, 09:29:58 PM

Would it be a stretch to say that there are too many people on the planet?

Yes. Estimates are the planet can support about 10 billion, which we should reach in about the year 2100.
HairyMaclairy
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January 15, 2018, 09:30:04 PM

The daily is still showing consistently higher lows.  
Heater
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January 15, 2018, 10:16:08 PM

The daily is still showing consistently higher lows.  

It's also showing lower highs. We're not out of the woods yet but I don't think we are entering a long term bear market. - probably back to new ATH in a month or 2.

On the other hand, I'm tipping we will see total carnage in the alts.
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January 15, 2018, 10:18:38 PM

I'll just re-state, we may also, theoretically, see a trend upwards beginning on or around February 18th, after tech-sector bonus wires start hitting exchanges.
I got to be brutally honest here, where did this bullshit rumor come from? Seems like some fake news that whales would put out there so that newb traders go long on margin and get rekt.

What bullshit rumor ? About January and February bonuses likely having a portion moved to exchanges for cryptocoin purchasing ?

A lot of people get paid on Thursdays or the 15 of every month. It has zero impact. It's bullshit and childish to think the price works like that. It doesn't. Even if it did, it would be priced in already.
bonipper
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January 15, 2018, 10:23:45 PM

The daily is still showing consistently higher lows.  

It's also showing lower highs. We're not out of the woods yet but I don't think we are entering a long term bear market. - probably back to new ATH in a month or 2.

On the other hand, I'm tipping we will see total carnage in the alts.

Sometimes the alts start pumping when bitcoin goes sideways for months. Admittedly there is often total carnage in the alts when bitcoin starts pumping.
Last of the V8s
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January 15, 2018, 10:32:51 PM

https://courts.ms.gov/newsite2/index.php?cn=87490#dispArea
https://courts.ms.gov/newsite2/appellatecourts/docket/sendPDF.php?f=dc00001_live.SCT.17.M.1681.102741.5.pdf&c=87490&a=N&s=2
p45
Sun Jun 19 21:02:05 2011
Mark Karpelès:
hi, got a coin tracking system working now, got any bitcoin address with lots of old stolen coins anywhere I should track ?
mtgox:
did you track the 95k?

and following

@midmagic https://twitter.com/midmagic/status/953024852083945472
If this is what I think it is, this is one of the main former Ripple guys (Jed McCaleb) and Mark Karpeles talking directly about stealing BTC from their disused user accounts to make up for thefts:
jojo69
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January 15, 2018, 10:40:14 PM

Would it be a stretch to say that there are too many people on the planet?

Yes. Estimates are the planet can support about 10 billion, which we should reach in about the year 2100.

Place is already a shithole and has degraded markedly in my lifetime.  It would be such an obscene cesspit at 10 billion that the mind recoils.
jojo69
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January 15, 2018, 10:47:39 PM

https://courts.ms.gov/newsite2/index.php?cn=87490#dispArea
https://courts.ms.gov/newsite2/appellatecourts/docket/sendPDF.php?f=dc00001_live.SCT.17.M.1681.102741.5.pdf&c=87490&a=N&s=2
p45
Sun Jun 19 21:02:05 2011
Mark Karpelès:
hi, got a coin tracking system working now, got any bitcoin address with lots of old stolen coins anywhere I should track ?
mtgox:
did you track the 95k?

and following

@midmagic https://twitter.com/midmagic/status/953024852083945472
If this is what I think it is, this is one of the main former Ripple guys (Jed McCaleb) and Mark Karpeles talking directly about stealing BTC from their disused user accounts to make up for thefts:


Quote
mtgox: do you think you can tell how they rooted the box?

Mark Karpelès: difficult to say


Mark Karpelès: kernel is old, and password had been circulating on highly unsecure channels


 Roll Eyes
Bloomie
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January 15, 2018, 11:07:34 PM

I'll just re-state, we may also, theoretically, see a trend upwards beginning on or around February 18th, after tech-sector bonus wires start hitting exchanges.
I got to be brutally honest here, where did this bullshit rumor come from? Seems like some fake news that whales would put out there so that newb traders go long on margin and get rekt.

What bullshit rumor ? About January and February bonuses likely having a portion moved to exchanges for cryptocoin purchasing ?

A lot of people get paid on Thursdays or the 15 of every month. It has zero impact. It's bullshit and childish to think the price works like that. It doesn't. Even if it did, it would be priced in already.

The difference is that bonuses are very large checks compared to regular bi-weekly income. Most people have a system where they put some money into checking to pay for bills and things like that, and part of it into savings or investing. The difference here is that Wall Street guys are gonna be getting a fat 6 figure bonus check all at once. You know how people go on spending sprees when they get their tax returns? They only get a few thousand dollars at most and they're happy to spend it. We're talking about hundreds of thousands of Dollars on average per bonus. What's a few thousand dollars to buy some BTC for a guy who just got handed 200k?

We could be totally wrong here, but I don't think it's out of the question to see some new money flowing into the crypto market.
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January 15, 2018, 11:08:20 PM

@midmagic https://twitter.com/midmagic/status/953024852083945472
If this is what I think it is, this is one of the main former Ripple guys (Jed McCaleb) and Mark Karpeles talking directly about stealing BTC from their disused user accounts to make up for thefts:

Dear Lord:
Quote
[Thu Mar 3 12:45:08 2011] mtgox: pass is: 3r56t

They are talking about root SSH to main MtGox server. What an amateur hour that was. Read the whole log if you have the stomach for it:
https://courts.ms.gov/newsite2/appellatecourts/docket/sendPDF.php?f=dc00001_live.SCT.17.M.1681.102741.5.pdf&c=87490&a=N&s=2
Last of the V8s
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January 15, 2018, 11:14:01 PM

https://github.com/mimblewimble/grin/blob/master/doc/intro.md
Is this an actual thing? A threat to XMR? or more?
@WeathermanIam https://twitter.com/WeathermanIam/status/953037672829931526
18m18 minutes ago
Replying to @giacomozucco

This is a legitimate threat to bitcoin. An altcoin with real utility. Grin is probably the first viable attempt.

My thought is that we should fork it and make it an airdrop if we can’t find a safe way to make it a side chain (ideal) and they insist on launching a new coin.
JayJuanGee
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January 15, 2018, 11:26:24 PM

I'll just re-state, we may also, theoretically, see a trend upwards beginning on or around February 18th, after tech-sector bonus wires start hitting exchanges.

First quarters are shaping up to be bearish/volatile periods for Bitcorn, with upward cycles beginning Q2-ish.


Non-bullish is not the same as "bearish"... it be more aptly called:  "consolidation"   Tongue Tongue

I refer to them as "periods of opportunity"


That is not a bad way to keep your jo jo....


Wait.  Huh
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January 15, 2018, 11:31:38 PM

After watching bitcoin's price climb throughout the years thousands of percent I must say that this time the <whatever the FUD is for the price going down this week> should spell its doom and the smart money will get out now because there's no way it will ever break another all time high. Bitcoin hardly ever surpasses previous ATHs, it is a rare site indeed.
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January 15, 2018, 11:33:17 PM

Meanwhile, a rather balanced compare & contrast. From Vinny Lingham, even. whowouldathunkit?

https://vinnylingham.com/a-tale-of-two-bitcoins-20375d49d3d3

He makes some pretty bad points regarding the vision of Satoshi.

He names some points about bch and then says "that's closer to Satoshi's vision". Yet the points he quotes are the exact opposite, except technological scaling.

Quote
The Bitcoin Cash developers have the following philosophy around Bitcoin Cash:

1) Not everyone in the world should or will run a node and therefore making it economical to do so is not actually practical. Decentralization to the nth degree is a nice idea but they believe Bitcoin is a small world network. The tradeoff is that not everyone in the world will be able to run a node and so the question really is: How important is that level of centralization to trusting that the network as a whole can function? On Bitcoin, there are around 10,000 listening nodes today (so possibly 10x in terms of validating nodes), and probably over 30m people using Bitcoin worldwide, but it’s still unlikely that average users will want to run a node and would be comfortable trusting larger third parties.

2) Bitcoin was arguably designed to scale at layer 1, due to increases in computing capacity every 18 months, as per Moore’s Law. Brian Armstrong from Coinbase wrote about this a year ago. Bitcoin Cash intends to scale by increasing the block size, and not creating a layer 2 solution.

3) Nodes without mining power have no ability to contribute to the consensus mechanism of Bitcoin, so they are disregarded. The original white paper did not differentiate between the two, because it was never envisioned that you would have a node running without mining at the same time. Bitcoin Cash is using Nakamoto Consensus to determine consensus rule changes.

4) As per the original Bitcoin.org website — Satoshi said that a fee market should maybe exist, once the coins had been fully exhausted. There is no need to build a fee market today, as there is 120 years to plan for it. Keep transactions cheap and fast and ensure that there is global adoption first and foremost.

5) Anyone can submit changes to the network from any one of the multiple implementations/clients running Bitcoin Cash. If miners vote to adopt the change, a hard fork will occur and the network will continue to function using this consensus mechanism.

As many Bitcoin and Core developer supporters have indicated, the Bitcoin Cash philosophy is more closely aligned to Satoshi’s original white paper, but the centralization aspects of mining and other concerns around privacy and government resistance have come to the fore and as a result Bitcoin needs to pare back on these aspects because Satoshi could not have predicted these risks (ASIC mining, the rise of China, etc.)

1) What part of "peer-to-peer" didn't he grasp? You either have a client/server system, or a peer-to-peer, or a semi-centralized system with very few "peers" who are your servers, and thus aren't really "peers"... you are their client. How can a client/server system be closer to Satoshi's vision than a peer to peer system?

2) That's the only point that's correct, however some things in bitcoin code don't scale linearly and need change. Additionally, we don't only need jumps in processing capacity, we also need jumps in networking and fast storage capacity - and on top of that, affordability for these, so they can run on "peers", since it's a peer-to-peer system. You can't have a decentralized system that is based on a centralized topology because it's vulnerable.

Time and technological progression *ensures* the scaling of all blockchains, even those who will host videos instead of 226 byte txs. It's not a question of if, it's only a question of when. However if you rush things in this department, by having a network with expensive technical requirements, you lean more towards a server-based system rather than a peer-to-peer system (p2p is the novelty factor here). Centralized systems existed in the past too, and they all have a common theme when it comes to competing with the government: The government shuts them down.

3) So if a miner had a 51% majority and decided to change the rules of the game to issue all the coins he wanted, that would be ok, or would it be a 51% attack? Some things are pretty simple. The very concept of a 51% attack wouldn't even exist if arbitrary rewriting of the rules by the majority hashpower was ok. It wouldn't be considered an attack, it would be considered "nakamoto consensus fairly changing the rules of the game because the majority hashpower said so"...

4) Without fees, mining profitability will fall of a cliff, not in 100+ years, but in 6 to 14 years from now. No miner will stay around to mine 0.0 to 0.1 btc per block until "coins are exhausted" in over a century ahead so that a fee market develops. That's bullshit. Without fees and a fee market, BCH is not futureproof. If you exist as a coin on the premise that users will always have ample space to transact, and that users can always have txs on with 1-2-5 sat/byte, at that point your store of value property is destroyed because

a) the network will be unsafe (no mining incentive)
or
b) you implement a tail-emission inflationary scheme to cover mining incentives by issuing more coins than the initial 21mn target.

5) Satoshi was pretty adamant about not wanting competing implementations etc etc...

With all these serious problems in the rationale, how did he find "alignment" with the vision of Satoshi?
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