Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jbreher]

Except all of this implies a buy at some sort of relative bottom. If 20k was top and your first buy is in high teens you might just sit and stare at your screen for the next two years.  

I think I understand your point. Yes, if your trading funds are all crypto and no fiat, you need to find some way to fund the buy side.

If you have both Bitcoin and fiat on hand, no problem. You fund the sell side by entering sell orders at your chosen interval, starting at the next interval above the current price. You fund the buy side by entering buy orders at your chosen interval, starting at the next interval below the current price. * Your system is now set up for up market or down market.

Of course, if you don't have fiat to start with, you cannot enter buy orders. If the market first tends down, you get antsy waiting for the price to raise to your first sell.

The solution of course is to sell some Bitcoin at current market price to get fiat to fund the buy side.

Case study: When I set my daughter up on this system, she was starting Bitcoin-rich and fiat-poor. We decided to place about 4% of her total crypto holdings into the trading system. Of this, we sold ~1/3 at market price, and used the resulting USD to fund the buy side. Easy Peasy.

Of course, the buy side funded through this mechanism it was not quite enough to carry the entire December - Jan volatility. She's been in the system, fallen off the low end (all sell orders, no fiat to buy) when the price tanked, back in the system (orders both sides) when the price rebounded, and fallen back off the low end when the price dropped again. Currently waiting for price to again rise to hit her lowest sell in the system.

But in the meantime, she's accumulated some additional Bitcoin**, and even some additional cash profit from when price reversals and human latency led to additional $ profit.

* You need to leave a gap of one interval near the current price. Can be either a missing sell or a missing buy. Think about the first few trades after setting up the system - if you understand the system, you'll see why this is necessary.

** Used to extend where the high side of the system 'tops out' - a sell at the next interval above that previously funded.

[Last of the V8s]

[itod]

Except all of this implies a buy at some sort of relative bottom. If 20k was top and your first buy is in high teens you might just sit and stare at your screen for the next two years.  

I think I understand your point. Yes, if your trading funds are all crypto and no fiat, you need to find some way to fund the buy side.

If you have both Bitcoin and fiat on hand, no problem. You fund the sell side by entering sell orders at your chosen interval, starting at the next interval above the current price. You fund the buy side by entering buy orders at your chosen interval, starting at the next interval below the current price. * Your system is now set up for up market or down market.

Of course, if you don't have fiat to start with, you cannot enter buy orders. If the market first tends down, you get antsy waiting for the price to raise to your first sell.

The solution of course is to sell some Bitcoin at current market price to get fiat to fund the buy side.

Case study: When I set my daughter up on this system, she was starting Bitcoin-rich and fiat-poor. We decided to place about 4% of her total crypto holdings into the trading system. Of this, we sold ~1/3 at market price, and used the resulting USD to fund the buy side. Easy Peasy.

Of course, the buy side funded through this mechanism it was not quite enough to carry the entire December - Jan volatility. She's been in the system, fallen off the low end (all sell orders, no fiat to buy) when the price tanked, back in the system (orders both sides) when the price rebounded, and fallen back off the low end when the price dropped again. Currently waiting for price to again rise to hit her lowest sell in the system.

But in the meantime, she's accumulated some additional Bitcoin**, and even some additional cash profit from when price reversals and human latency led to additional $ profit.

* You need to leave a gap of one interval near the current price. Can be either a missing sell or a missing buy. Think about the first few trades after setting up the system - if you understand the system, you'll see why this is necessary.

** Used to extend where the high side of the system 'tops out' - a sell at the next interval above that previously funded.

I think I understand your system now, thanks for explaining it, appreciated. Have three questions, if you don't mind answering them:

- Assuming you use an exchange with taker/maker fee policy and pay 0 fees, how big is your yearly gain in BTC in percentage?

- Are maker fees given to you by exchange significant in total amount or are they negligible?

- Is this possible to do without a bot? Placing all these orders dependent on the market moves looks like a lot of work to me.

[STT]

http://finance.weissratings.com/crypto/

What do we make of this?

I’ve never heard of Weiss.

Weiss and his father performed independent financial analyses on banks for many years.  They were conservative in their appraisals, and by that I mean that didn't count squishy items like "goodwill" for very much.  They published their own "Weiss ratings" for thousands of banks.  You could check on any single bank you were interested in, or subscribe to their service.  They sold the business but I guess the son still speaks on behalf of the business.  It was a legit business so this interests me.

Nice, seems a positive they would even appraise crypto coming from tradational finance.   That alone seems a pretty big thumbs up.   

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

January 16 bitcoin price bounced off the weekly 20 MA. You can see this has happened before and the bull market stayed intact.



Bulls snapped up bitcoin under $10,000 as this might be the last time you see four digit bitcoin prices.

[thrax]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-bitcoin-france-germany/france-germany-to-make-joint-bitcoin-regulation-proposal-at-g20-summit-idUKKBN1F728X?il=0
looks like we're going to have to fight them on the beaches again

Not the beaches again. Grrr. i was kinda hoping for the hills this time.

Germany hasn't had a proper government for ages, and without one it can't implement joint bitcoin regulations, or any other new regulations. France wants to make all sorts of new EU rules, but can't until Germany forms a government. If Germany can't agree on a coalition soon it will have to have another election, and that's likely to end in stalemate again.

[jbreher]

I think I understand your system now, thanks for explaining it, appreciated. Have three questions, if you don't mind answering them:

- Assuming you use an exchange with taker/maker fee policy and pay 0 fees, how big is your yearly gain in BTC in percentage?

Percentage of what? Total holdings? Not much. Amount I have allocated to my 'trading stash'? Much better. It's still not a get rich quick scheme. More of an increment your wealth slowly and steadily. I'm not going to divulge specific numbers further than that which I have already. You can model it in something as simple as Excel using historical data to figure out what you would have made if you had been using it up to now.

- Are maker fees given to you by exchange significant in total amount or are they negligible?

As posted earlier, GDAX charges 0% to the maker. One of the two main reasons I use GDAX for this type of trading. Other exchanges are more suitable for other trading styles.

- Is this possible to do without a bot? Placing all these orders dependent on the market moves looks like a lot of work to me.

Yes, it can certainly be done without a bot. As an existence proof, I do not run a bot. However, in this scheme, my trading is very systematized. It would surely be relatively simple to code up a bot to execute the system. I prefer to run it manually. It requires intermittent attention, but not much effort.

As divulged earlier, I no longer get my panties in a knot if the market moves faster than I do. I have learned it does not have a huge negative impact on results to run it on my own schedule. Mind you, I'd be at the computer for hours each day whether or not I was engaging in this form of trading. If your line of work or your hobbies would interfere with being internet connected most of your waking hours, you might want another form of trading, or a maybe even just bot that you can trust.

[JayJuanGee]

Going down again. The 12k didn't last. Might go now down to 8k according to many forecasts...

Maybe my last limit buy will trigger?
At least until I get some fresh burnable fiat...

Poor d_eddie - you also might not get the opportunity to have such said "last limited buy order" filled in this round of correction(s)   


I'm currently considering up to be 52% and down to be 48%, give or take 1.5% (gotta give myself a bit of leeway, here, in my attempts at Nostradamus BTC price prediction proclamations).

[Torque]

First official e-commerce transaction with Lightning Network? Sounds like it:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7ras1y/ladies_and_gentlemen_its_official_joe_sixpack/

File this one next to the pair of 10k btc pizzas. 

[Elix9]

First official e-commerce transaction with Lightning Network? Sounds like it:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7ras1y/ladies_and_gentlemen_its_official_joe_sixpack/

File this one next to the pair of 10k btc pizzas. 

Why only 4 comments? You'd think it would have more attention.

[jojo69]

fake news

[El duderino_]

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

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28/01/2018 jojo69
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14/02/2018 Thekool1s
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23/02/2018 erisdiscordia
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26/02/2018 Arriemoller
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28/02/2018 Muttley
01/03/2018 bones261
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31/03/2018 vroom
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02/04/2018 kurious
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05/04/2018 bitcoinbunny
08/04/2018 tyler1890
10/04/2018 ludwigvon
11/04/2018 hairymaclairy
16/04/2018 practicaldreamer
18/04/2018 free-bit.co.in
27/04/2018 drbrockoin
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28/08/2018 bitserve
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31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK

WONDERING WHERE WE GOING

[TERA2]

The daily shows some modest support but does not show any kind of reversal pattern.

[Torque]

Yep, little buy or sell volume. Traders sitting on the sidelines for now. My guess is that US gov looming decision to avert shutdown has something to do with it.

[adaseb]

Some of the comments are hilarious with what happened with Bitconnect

[jojo69]

Am I a bad person for finding mirth in the self inflicted misfortune of others?

[Torque]

First stage: Denial.

Second stage: Anger.

 

Am I a bad person for finding mirth in the self inflicted misfortune of others?

To be honest, I'm downright fkn irritated/annoyed with people who are passing over Bitcoin, the most awesome thing that is staring them in right in the face, for other shitcoins and scams.

So no, no sympathy, fk them.

[infofront]

Am I a bad person for finding mirth in the self inflicted misfortune of others?

I thought it was hilarious too, but I kind of feel bad. 

[JayJuanGee]

Compared to other threads on bitcointalk, reddit, twitter, facebook.

It seems everybody in this thread is chill and hodling.

Guess being an old adopter comes with its perks.

The problem is that the crypto kiddies don't really have any skin in the game to see things play out long term. If they put in $300 or even $1000 and they end up with 50% profit (say $1500), they cash out and go blow it on something stupid. Presumably because their mind tells them "Well I'll never get wealthy on $1500 anyway, might as well just spend it then." Meanwhile they continue to run up their credit cards and work hand-to-mouth, essentially forever.

This is the mindset of the forever poor. They can't conceive of how to turn that $1500 into $5k, then $20k, then $100k, and so on until they have some real wealth. This is why there aren't more millionaires running around in every country of the world. No long term vision, no patience, and no discipline. It can take a decade or two to build real wealth, which so many don't have the vision or patience for.

Lecture on, Torquester!!!!!!     

[HairyMaclairy]

http://finance.weissratings.com/crypto/

What do we make of this?

I’ve never heard of Weiss.

Weiss and his father performed independent financial analyses on banks for many years.  They were conservative in their appraisals, and by that I mean that didn't count squishy items like "goodwill" for very much.  They published their own "Weiss ratings" for thousands of banks.  You could check on any single bank you were interested in, or subscribe to their service.  They sold the business but I guess the son still speaks on behalf of the business.  It was a legit business so this interests me.

Thank you very helpful.  I will give some further thought to this as it is an element missing from the market to date.