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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 14 (34.1%)
2020 - 16 (39%)
2021 - 9 (22%)
2022 - 0 (0%)
2023 - 0 (0%)
Never - 2 (4.9%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21168975 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (23 posts by 12 users deleted.)
starmman
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February 08, 2018, 04:46:50 PM

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

15/02/2018 starmman

Just a week to go before the price hits $24777 LOL
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micgoossens
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Be safe, Elwar and Nadia !!


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February 08, 2018, 04:49:50 PM

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

15/02/2018 starmman

Just a week to go before the price hits $24777 LOL

If that happens then send me all your merit and future smerit’s  Tongue  Roll Eyes
goldkingcoiner
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February 08, 2018, 04:52:17 PM

Listen here. The thing about racists: Everyone is a racist.

Sometimes we need to put others down to make us feel good about ourselves. It is just desperate human nature of someone who does not like themself. From a psychological standpoint anyway.

If anything its just sad.
JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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February 08, 2018, 04:52:43 PM

As to the particular case, I searched through jbreher's posts to find where he told us of his employment, but gave up because the deceitfulness was all too depressing.
Perhaps he'd honour us with the relevant quote alluded to in the part I underlined, and we can take it from there.

We know that posts can be edited too, which makes any research project that is based on posts even more difficult, in the event that either you did not quote the post at the time or recall the specific post in order that you would possibly be able to view it's edit history.
micgoossens
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Be safe, Elwar and Nadia !!


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February 08, 2018, 04:53:44 PM

Blockstack Berlin: signature fund event on march 2
Maybe something too visit ......
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February 08, 2018, 04:56:24 PM
Merited by bitcoinPsycho (1)

Since the dip we are currently climbing at approximately $750/day  Shocked

We will be seeing $10k before monday hopefully.
ATH might get passed before the end of the month.

We will get some testing of support but other than that we are going bullish again Smiley

Fingers crossed  Cool

Would be Nice maybe little fast but as they say anythings possible @BTC

You never know in bitcoinlandia; however, I would think that 3 months would be more realistic on the optimistic side of things, with maybe an outside (quasi-realistic) range of that would be from about 3 to 9 months.
micgoossens
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February 08, 2018, 05:02:32 PM

Since the dip we are currently climbing at approximately $750/day  Shocked

We will be seeing $10k before monday hopefully.
ATH might get passed before the end of the month.

We will get some testing of support but other than that we are going bullish again Smiley

Fingers crossed  Cool

Would be Nice maybe little fast but as they say anythings possible @BTC

You never know in bitcoinlandia; however, I would think that 3 months would be more realistic on the optimistic side of things, with maybe an outside (quasi-realistic) range of that would be from about 3 to 9 months.

As you say never know but a steady grow would be good for me too
When not selling coins iT doesn’t matter When or how the price grows...... its al about the big picture
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February 08, 2018, 05:04:34 PM

BCASH pump&dump beginning!
Ready to make money! Cool
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February 08, 2018, 05:11:01 PM

Listen here. The thing about racists: Everyone is a racist.

Sometimes we need to put others down to make us feel good about ourselves. It is just desperate human nature of someone who does not like themself. From a psychological standpoint anyway.
We're not talking guys who hate their second cousins. It's specifically called racism if "the others" are people with a phenotype markedly different from yours. Or a different upbringing.
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February 08, 2018, 05:23:52 PM


You can tweak the amounts, and/or you can tweak the gaps (leaving two rather than one, for example).
You can realign the whole ladder by a few dollar points (under the $500 step size, in the example I made).

But right, if you don't do that, that's the way I understand it too - you harvest your latest top when you reach a bottom, and vice versa.

Thanks for helping me brainwrap that.

It seems to be more of a risk management strategy than anything.  Most of the transactions are cancelling out with zero risk while ensuring that you are right there on a reversal.

Your only real risk is that it runs off in a huge move that exhausts your supply of one side of the pair.
I think I remember JayJuanGee talking about being busy shuffling orders around during the latest storm - respacing them with wider steps if I remember it right. Jbreher hinted he does the shuffling manually too (likely with a smaller step size, which of course implies more work). You basically have to babysit this toy, either automatically or manually.

Quote
edit/  I just deleted a recently added sell order that would have prevented me from "getting in" if it goes up from here...
So it seems to be working for you isn't it?
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February 08, 2018, 05:27:59 PM
Merited by HairyMaclairy (2)

To be really good you just need to be better than the average trader. And for that you don't need to sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom. It's enough to stagger purchases and sales in proportions that depend on the probabilities of price increases/decreases by certain numbers. Finding the probabilities is the trick here, as well as averaging them out in a way that guarantees you a performance band in which your portfolio will fall with a given probability. Doing that requires an understanding of time series as well as the ability to process large amounts of data (beyond just the price charts) though.

Agreed, but why didn't we see the crash coming? If there was a pattern to predict that, not many here did.

Did you know after it went up towards 20k that within a month or so it would hit 6K?  I didn't.
That's exactly what I would like to be able to figure out - partially, tentatively, doubtfully, of course. In another post, kurious said something to the effect "Exactness is not possible, but getting as close to it as we can is a noble art." I'm quoting from memory, words might be off. Well, that's exactly what I hope to do, and I'm asking for help from several points of view. The advanced conspiration theorist, the technical analyst, the macroeconomist, the street-wise long time exchange user. I'm none of that yet, but honing my gut feeling skills seems a worthy endeavour.
That depends on how much time and effort you are willing to expend, or alternatively money if you'd prefer hiring people.

The most accurate solution will be a well-balanced combination of multiple approaches, and the balancing act is something that can always be improved upon with new data. It's also very much possible to create fresh data from what you already know, which is to some extent what technical analysis does.

If you're not looking into algorithmic trading then your best bet is a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. If you're looking into algorithmic trading, you'll find no upper ceiling no matter how many resources you throw at the problem.

If you're manually trading you may want to consider trading on different time scales simultaneously (minutes/hours/days/weeks/months), both for better hedging and for accelerated self-improvement. There are also altcoins that are "negatively" correlated to BTC/USD (e.g. they do the opposite of what BTC/USD does), which can be used fairly easily to increase your stashes during periods of extreme volatility on any time scale.
I'm no real trader, but I do have a small part of my holdings loose in the wild - mostly learning and making the occasional small profit. Got a few lessons already, at reasonable prices.

Thanks for the advice about multiple scales. The algorithmic thingy really tickles me, especially if it can be steered/tweaked while it runs. Can you suggest any good reference?
I don't really know what is available "on the market" in terms of trading bots, so I can't give you any reference in that regard. The ones that I've seen that were available to the public all had the flaw that they get annihilated during both pumps and dumps, mostly due to oversimplified rules. They were pretty decent in sideways markets and not easy to produce without experience, but you certainly wouldn't want to leave them running 24/7 without attending to them. And the ones that have the capacity of somewhat steering clear P&Ds will either cost a lot or not be available at all, as they would lower the profitability of whoever created the bot.

So the best option would be to program your own. For that purpose, Python would be great for the Machine Learning part (reading data, learning patterns and self-adjusting) and C++ for optimization (if you wanted to run a large amount of computers in parallel to process more data). From scratch this will take a while to get running (weeks to years depending on your background), but it's worth exploring since that's something that would be relevant for the rest of your life.

Edit: There's also Google's TensorFlow which is basically a high efficiency Machine Learning library that cherry picks the best of both worlds (Python/cpp).
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February 08, 2018, 05:29:40 PM

We're not talking guys who hate their second cousins. It's specifically called racism if "the others" are people with a phenotype markedly different from yours. Or a different upbringing.

Hating is legit as much as loving. Hating some particular phenotype without any practical motives seems stupid at first sight, until you discover that there may be good (((motives))).

https://i.imgur.com/HPrphhM.jpg
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February 08, 2018, 05:31:43 PM

BCASH pump&dump beginning!
Ready to make money! Cool

Why do I hate these bcash idiots so much?
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February 08, 2018, 05:34:22 PM

BCASH pump&dump beginning!
Ready to make money! Cool

Why do I hate these bcash idiots so much?
Because of their sleazy tactics?
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February 08, 2018, 05:38:54 PM

-snip-
Those drapes are ridiculous.


All I got is a Jimi song floating thru my brain..but ya..who does valance's like that anymore?
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February 08, 2018, 05:44:25 PM
Merited by BTCMILLIONAIRE (1), bitserve (1), HairyMaclairy (1), d_eddie (1)

...chained orders...

I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbreher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair.

Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it.

It goes down, I am buying ETH every 0.001, ok fine, then it goes back up and I am selling ETH at the exact same prices...it looks like a total wash to me.

Did I miss something in the explanation?


Let's leave ETH out of this and talk about USD/BTC pairs, because even if you are attempting to use ETH to accumulate BTC, the pairing is a bit hostile to this thread...

1) chained order is a little bit of an additional concept that was raised by bitserve, and apparently Bitstamp has that service.  Neither Jbreher nor I were referring to chained orders because we manually set our orders after they fill.  We were talking more about incremental order setting or step setting.

2)  example of incremental / step setting in the $8k price territory using a ball park of $500 buy/sell increments.  Since, as I type, most recently BTC prices have been coming up from it's dip down to $6k, if you already had this system in place and you were buying .1 BTC on the way down, you would have bought every $500 at $8k, then $7.5k, then $7k, then $6.5k and then $6k.  Then you would would have sold all the way back up in the opposite at $6.5k, then $7k, then $7.5k and then $8k.  The only way that you accomplish the selling on the way back up is because you have reset all of your sell orders after the buy orders have implemented.  In this case you have a $500 increment, but you have a $1k spread.  So currently, since your most recent sell order had executed at $8k, your next sell order would be $8.5k, but after your $8k order filled, you reset your buy order at $7.5k.

3) The whole system is not a wash because you are able to either buy more BTC with the same amount of money or accumulate more money by the size of your orders.  If you keep the exact BTC amounts, then you accumulate dollars; if you keep the same dollar amounts then you accumulate BTC (or you can do some combination of the two).  Recently, I have been working on accumulating more
BTC with my orders.  

4)  The larger your amounts that you are trading, the more that you can notice that you are making money, and the larger your increments, the more that you make money too.  Of course, there is no free lunch because there is risk on both ends.  The larger your amounts that you are trading the more likely you could end up running out of money or btc when the price over shoots (which it does in BTClandia) and you could end up employing a kind of gambling rather than a sure thing.  Furthermore, the larger your increments, the bigger risk that you run that they will not get filled, and you end up in a kind of trading limbolandia rather than bitcoinlandia.   Cheesy

5) I tend to recommend to folks to begin by setting your price increments really tight in order that you get a lot of practice, and to use really small amounts so you can get a hang of it.  As you get better and more experienced you increase your amounts and your increments.  For example, I started at 1.5% increments, which covers fees too that can be up to .25% on each end, that would take away .5% of your profits.  Currently, I am trading in the 16% territory, which is quite a bit larger than I had planned, but part of that is due to the price dropping down after I converted from $800 to $1k increments (on the way up past $15k - which would have been 7.5% increments at that price point).

6) Ultimately, you need to practice in a way that customizes the whole situation to yourself in terms of your finances, your risk tolerance, your view of bitcoin, how much time you have in your schedule, your timeline for wanting your money etc.  You also learn more about yourself by putting this into practice, too... because sometimes you might get emotional and want to do x, y or z, but later on reflection you can tweak your system when you make mistakes.  Further, you may not even know what you are going to do by theorizing about it, but if you actually practice, then you get an opportunity to actually put a kind of exact action to your thoughts (and words)

7) Even Jbreher and i have had little skirmishes about the "right" practice, so in the end the actual practice may not matter as much as the fact that you are trying to tailor it to yourself, and perhaps trying to learn from yourself and others, and even my writing out my practice from time to time, helps me to learn from others and from myself.


You remove the "other side" order at the point you just filled, otherwise they will cancel out for sure.

I don't think that "remove" is the correct word choice.  I find that when I am playing this whole system and it is going smoothly, then I am never really removing anything, but I am just adding.  Once a buy order executes, then I add a sell order, and once a sell order executes, then I add a buy order.  

On that same point, I tend to let the price come to me, and rarely do I tweak to reset the order and to expedite the process.   Sometimes, I will change a whole bunch of orders at once which is a kind of removal and replace, but that is not part of the regular practice when the practice is "flowing" then I am only adding orders, not removing orders.


Example: you have orders each 500$.
Sell at 8500 on the way up, but remove "buy at 8500 on the way down". Next you'll buy will be at $8000.
Same for the opposite direction, buy at $8000 on the way down, remove "sell at $8000 on the way up".

I am not sure if your example helps.... O.k. we are going with a $500 increment, but if my order to sell at $8,500 executes, then I am not removing anything because I just add a buy order at $8k (because my previous sell had executed at $8k, and I could not do anything until either the next $8.5k sell order executed or the next $7.5 buy order executed.  If the price had gone down rather than up, then my $7.5k order would have filled and I would have set a sell order at $8k rather than the buy order that I ended up setting because of the $8.5k sell order that ended up executing first.

Probably, we are saying the same thing, just phrasing it differently.


OK, so for the most part, they still cancel out, you are just harvesting at reversals.

If it runs straight up 4 sells, then straight down 4 buys you only have one "win"

You really win on each one, and the bigger your amounts the bigger your wins.  Sometimes it is difficult to recognize the wins in the short run, especially on the way down when your whole BTC value might be decreasing.  However, I frequently describe this whole process as stacking and a kind of insurance that really takes a lot of stress out of downside volatility (it does not take out all stress, but it can remove a lot of stress by providing a decent amount of insurance).  Furthermore, if you play around with this a bit more, then you will see more and more that you can tweak it to achieve your goals and to increase your amounts, but it does not do service to the whole system if you increase the amounts too much in the beginning and you end up running out of money because you over did the situation.  I personally only play with a small portion of my total BTC holdings.  I sell about 1% of the value of my total BTC holdings for every 10% price rise (and that is the amount that I am playing with, for the most part)
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February 08, 2018, 05:48:53 PM

-snip-
Those drapes are ridiculous.


All I got is a Jimi song floating thru my brain..but ya..who does valance's like that anymore?

 From the look of those guys, the last thing on their mind is valances.
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February 08, 2018, 05:58:56 PM

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST        

15/02/2018 starmman

Just a week to go before the price hits $24777 LOL

Yeah but fk the moon, you are already on your way to Mars!

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February 08, 2018, 06:04:19 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

After BTC dumped so hard, it was just a matter oft time until BCH started trying to overtake again. It is rather probable that this pump is just starting and could geht BCH close to 1:1 for BTC with current weakness and high amount oft free capital!
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February 08, 2018, 06:06:49 PM
Last edit: February 08, 2018, 06:22:21 PM by BobLawblaw

DON'T FEED THE TROLLS
https://i.imgur.com/S6sjXsv.gif

OT: I can't imagine what it must be like; what sort of life must you have led, that placed you on this path of complete and utter immobility due to obscene caloric over-indulgence.

The empathetic part of me wants to chalk it up to mental illness, but the practical part of me starts down a spiral of nihilism, and recognizing these people for being the poor-impulse-control dregs of society, that would do civilization a favor if they just immediately keeled over due to cardiac-related complications.
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