Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

I was thinking in the specific sense of having to pay a fee in Bitcoin. Possibly as a substitute for POW.  I have not given it any real thought and it’s possibly full of holes, such as Sybil attacks.

Sybils willing to pay in bitcoin are OK, depending on the price:

Code:

(price < reward) ? NO_WAY                                                       # cheapskate!
(reward < price < reward + fees) ? likely_ok(reward, fees, shillprice) # fees almost free for everyone, I'm a shill!
(reward < reward + fees < price) ? likely_ok(reward, fees, shillprice) # a lottery? negative fees?

A funky alt, possibly.
Might have an actual use case, even if right now I couldn't figure one for the life of me.
Democratizing down the price of on-chain fees once rewards are hardly relevant?
Such a funkcoin might as well exist already, for all I know.

[Anon136]

What was your thesis for a March pump?

'Standard View'

BTC ran up 10,000%, a massive multi-year correction is then absolutely necessary. Given the increase in infrastructure and adoption the most likely effect is a shallower, longer winter. (The more something represents the entire system the slower it moves, economies move in decades long cycles, BTC could have month long cycles starting out. Lows around -75-80% off the ATH.


'Miracle 2013 style double top'

We ran out of new suckers, that is why the price stopped going up. Double top would need:

-New even larger wave of speculators. Coinbase was the #1 app, on TV every night, major exchanges in all countries with rich speculators. The next level up requires infrastructure that is years away at best
-Belief that 100k is possible. No one will pay 20 unless they think someone will pay 40, 40 buyer needs to believe in 80 buyer coming etc. A drop to 6k erodes this
-All the stuck bagholders have to get even or accept their losses, this places a huge ask capping any rallies

Honestly. I know this sounds stupid but intuition. I have been staring at bitcoin charts for 8 years now. It made a very solid looking bottom with very reasonable growth coming out of that bottom, a healthy and calm retracement down to about half of that run up then further upside that broke out past the last high. It's just what bitcoin charts have looked like to me when the bottom was in in the past. It looked like textbook - people are done freaking out so therefore we can resume the more general trend that is up. And ultimately I am a bull long term. So when ever people stop freaking out and cool their heads after a mania bitcoin tends to resume the general multi year bull trend.

I hope that made some sort of sense.

[Elwar]

Fabulous.  Keep them coming. How is your French?

I had 4 years of french in high school but that was about 20 years go...so I can get by but not conversational yet. Sold to some kid on localbitcoins who didn't speak any english. I was able to get through the sale without too much difficulty. Especially with google translate. Just enough for pocket money.

[bluebits]

What was your thesis for a March pump?

'Standard View'

BTC ran up 10,000%, a massive multi-year correction is then absolutely necessary. Given the increase in infrastructure and adoption the most likely effect is a shallower, longer winter. (The more something represents the entire system the slower it moves, economies move in decades long cycles, BTC could have month long cycles starting out. Lows around -75-80% off the ATH.


'Miracle 2013 style double top'

We ran out of new suckers, that is why the price stopped going up. Double top would need:

-New even larger wave of speculators. Coinbase was the #1 app, on TV every night, major exchanges in all countries with rich speculators. The next level up requires infrastructure that is years away at best
-Belief that 100k is possible. No one will pay 20 unless they think someone will pay 40, 40 buyer needs to believe in 80 buyer coming etc. A drop to 6k erodes this
-All the stuck bagholders have to get even or accept their losses, this places a huge ask capping any rallies

Honestly. I know this sounds stupid but intuition. I have been staring at bitcoin charts for 8 years now. It made a very solid looking bottom with very reasonable growth coming out of that bottom, a healthy and calm retracement down to about half of that run up then further upside that broke out past the last high. It's just what bitcoin charts have looked like to me when the bottom was in in the past. It looked like textbook - people are done freaking out so therefore we can resume the more general trend that is up. And ultimately I am a bull long term. So when ever people stop freaking out and cool their heads after a mania bitcoin tends to resume the general multi year bull trend.

I hope that made some sort of sense.

I see where you are coming from, winning in trading mean ruthlessly rational analysis, combined with understanding what move the market from first principles. I would have done enormously better if I applied my own principles better to my own trading. You should try to destroy every idea and 'feeling' you have from every possible angle. I think if you had tried this you would have seen the holes in your trading strategy sooner.

[d_eddie]

I'll try to consider both UP or DOWN from the viewpoint of someone who got something at stake.

'Standard View'

BTC ran up 10,000%, a massive multi-year correction is then absolutely necessary. Given the increase in infrastructure and adoption the most likely effect is a shallower, longer winter. (The more something represents the entire system the slower it moves, economies move in decades long cycles, BTC could have month long cycles starting out. Lows around -75-80% off the ATH.


'Miracle 2013 style double top'

We ran out of new suckers, that is why the price stopped going up. Double top would need:

-New even larger wave of speculators. Coinbase was the #1 app, on TV every night, major exchanges in all countries with rich speculators. The next level up requires infrastructure that is years away at best
-Belief that 100k is possible. No one will pay 20 unless they think someone will pay 40, 40 buyer needs to believe in 80 buyer coming etc. A drop to 6k erodes this
-All the stuck bagholders have to get even or accept their losses, this places a huge ask capping any rallies

I'm bullish at heart too, and this is standard view indeed. The folloiwing is also reassuring.

Honestly. I know this sounds stupid but intuition. I have been staring at bitcoin charts for 8 years now. It made a very solid looking bottom with very reasonable growth coming out of that bottom, a healthy and calm retracement down to about half of that run up then further upside that broke out past the last high. It's just what bitcoin charts have looked like to me when the bottom was in in the past. It looked like textbook - people are done freaking out so therefore we can resume the more general trend that us up. And ultimately I am a bull long term. So when ever people stop freaking out and cool their heads after a mania bitcoin tends to resume the general multi year bull trend.

I hope that made some sort of sense.

But if it is true that a small minority can control the price by acting in a select mix of exchanges, we should try to figure out longer-term dynamics. The ever-hungry badger is a thing for fairy tales. He needs to rest, to digest, to heal, to reproduce - he can't eat all the time.

If a whole school of sharks wants to give another serious shake on the way up, I bet they can. I'd bet small, just as a hedge. That would make for a handsome premium to pay, but a black swan (or possibly just a gray one) could become a life-changing event. "No way I can really retire until the Foundation is set up" kind of life-changing.

Enriching thoughts? Bears, bulls, ratts, primates (including humans).
Bugs needn't bother, since we already know their opinion on the matter.

[JayJuanGee]

Is it just me or is the mood in here turning very #CRAEFULGANG?

Isn't it good to retest support? I guess it was a successful test.

2 dips below 8500, and one below 8800.

I got a feeling Asia is sick of buying at this price...
maybe looking to find cheaper today... (3 times in a row)

I have never been so sure in my life that bitcoin was going to go bullish early march. I was approaching 99% sure of my bullish sentiment. And I'm not usually wrong. I'm willing to admit when I dont know, which is often, but when I decide that I do know I have always been right. That kick in the teeth of being not just a little bit wrong but so extraordinarily 100% 180 degrees wrong sent me from the most bullish I have ever been to the most bearish. At this point I'm waiting for a retest of 6k atleast.

It really really really should have been off to the races from like the third of this month. This pullback should not have been as dramatic as it was...

You come off as such a wize soul.



NOT.


This above post demonstrates your nonsensical mud, and seeming inclination to talk your book -- -yeah right.. you went from the most bullish to the most bearish just a couple of weeks ago, and now you want to tell the world about your supposed enlightened transformation.

   Get a fucking grip, book talker....  

Is this a thread for talking about price predictions or a thread for circle jerking about the moon? Is that the only opinion I am allowed to have? BUY BUY BUY MOON MOON MOON.

You are off base if you conclude that I am criticizing your comments based on their bearishness rather than their bullishness... Although you are correct that personally I likely have a greater tendency to focus on bear FUDspreaders rather than bulls who are trying to get folks to buy. 

Nonetheless, my attention to you and/or your recent posts is largely irrelevant and seems to be an attempt to detract substantive discussions towards me... ridiculous.

Of course, you can predict BTC prices and dynamics in whatever you want and using whatever evidence that you want.   And, people in this thread can point out deficiencies and biases in your predictions, which is what I have been doing regarding several of your recent posts in which you are referring to some supposed "ah ha" moment that you have come to at around (or perhaps nearly after) your selling of a decent stash of your bitcoin, and because of your supposed "ah ha" moment, that does not seem to be based on much of anything beyond some kind of bare assertion, you want to share those feelings with peeps reading this thread.

 What I am doing is asserting that your BTC price prediction (and assertion of current dynamics) seems largely based upon your having had sold a decent portion of your BTC and perhaps unsubstantiated emotions rather than any kind of meaningful evidence or logic, and my responses should allow you to respond to my criticisms, but seems that the best you can come up with is to assert the thread (including yours truly) is too diluted into bull circle jerk thinking.. blah blah blah.. . and without really substantiating any of your earlier assertions beyond that you had sold some BTC and you are hoping the prices go down, now. 

Sure, you could end up being correct that BTC prices go down from here, but could be more of a result of luck rather than any kind of meaningful insight that you have shared about your views of short-term BTC price dynamics.

[Torque]

Is it just me or is the mood in here turning very #CRAEFULGANG?

What does #CRAEFULGANG mean?

It' a parody on hey hey heyyyy...bitconnnneeee...ctttt dude.
Aired on J. Oliver's show yesterday.

https://youtu.be/g6iDZspbRMg?t=987

followed by (where craeful is explained)

https://youtu.be/g6iDZspbRMg?t=1361

Ya'know, those smug douchebags can mock and parody Bitcoin and crypto all they want. I'm sure Jamie Dimon and the big bank establishment is loving that shit, as it keeps the Average Joes away longer because they mock it, like Bitcoin and the whole space is just one big scammy joke, a short term fad that only idiots would get involved in. Mind fuck on Average Joe, mission accomplished.

But we'll have the last laugh alright... oh yes...

[Elwar]

Ya'know, those smug douchebags can mock and parody Bitcoin and crypto all they want. I'm sure Jamie Dimon and the big bank establishment is loving that shit, as it keeps the Average Joes away longer because they mock it, like Bitcoin and the whole space is just one big scammy joke, a short term fad that only idiots would get involved in. Mind fuck on Average Joe, mission accomplished.

But we'll have the last laugh alright... oh yes...

I stopped trying to get the average Joe to buy bitcoins when I realized that they were the ones that got us into this mess in the first place by going along with the crowd as I saw more people trying to call for Bitcoin regulations so the price would go up.

[JayJuanGee]

 Get a fucking grip, book talker....  

Shut your noise-hole, wordy-man.

I'm a bit flummoxed myself as to why we're not at least hovering around $11k.

 

Who the fuck woke up on the wrong side of the bed today?

Not this cat.

I'm thinking that you may need to switch from beverages to the smokie types, in order to chill out a bit more.. y ten poco paciencia, hombre...

It could take a bit more shaking before returning to $11k, $12k and beyond... My, oh my, it is possible to take years because we cannot ONLY expect UP.. even though we still doing good.. and really there could be some alt coin shaking dynamics that continues to delay our bicycle trip that takes us to the car that takes us to the train that takes us to the rocket, etc etc...

u get urselfie a grip, too!!!!!!!    

[d_eddie]

What is happening in this thread now, I'm confused.

Same 'ol same 'ol in this thread. Bitcoin however is looking like some market movers want your cheap coins again. As was said..looks to be heading south.


This was what was going on until this morning..pattern look familiar?

Indeed. I see a stream of 2-day mammoths looking forward (the final dip is the trunk). Don't know what it's called in astr... uh, in TA. Two mammoths are fairly easy to see in Toxic2040's chart.
By changing the time scale you can see more.

15 minutes - lots of noise on the way down, 2 mammoths easy to spot as in Toxic's post.


30 minutes - the descent can be split in two blobs with a dip in between (think trunk).


1 hour


2 hours - 2 mammoths climbing. The first has its trunk... hm, erected, so to say, pointing forward. Two descending ones can still be spotted before them.


The best visual alignment for me is on the 1 hour chart.

There appeared to be some observer affect though as now it has gone another way. I am not feeling very confident about the price right now and I am sure that is exactly what is wanted...with that in mind I will wait until friday to see which way the market is going.

That would be 2 more elephants, hairy or maybe smooth - and of course deformed along an underlying Platonic curve that we'd all like to know.

EDIT: If I were a whale hitting on paranoid traders who think they're smart, I'd smash it down hard after a longish trunk in a half-descending mammoth. Say, on Friday around 13:00-15:00 UTC. That's trunk time. Not necessarily this week. Next week the trunks would be on Tue-Thu-Sat though. But the mammoths have a kind of bend in their back, like stretching cats. The loin point might be as good. Friday next week a convenient loin could happen at 02:00.

[pacman7331]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/12/investors-bullish-on-bitcoin-now-that-the-tokyo-whale-has-stopped-selling.html

“Investors bullish on bitcoin now that the 'Tokyo Whale' has stopped selling”

[pacman7331]

Is it just me or is the mood in here turning very #CRAEFULGANG?

Isn't it good to retest support? I guess it was a successful test.

2 dips below 8500, and one below 8800.

I got a feeling Asia is sick of buying at this price...
maybe looking to find cheaper today... (3 times in a row)

I have never been so sure in my life that bitcoin was going to go bullish early march. I was approaching 99% sure of my bullish sentiment. And I'm not usually wrong. I'm willing to admit when I dont know, which is often, but when I decide that I do know I have always been right. That kick in the teeth of being not just a little bit wrong but so extraordinarily 100% 180 degrees wrong sent me from the most bullish I have ever been to the most bearish. At this point I'm waiting for a retest of 6k atleast.

It really really really should have been off to the races from like the third of this month. This pullback should not have been as dramatic as it was...

What was your thesis for a March pump?

'Standard View'

BTC ran up 10,000%, a massive multi-year correction is then absolutely necessary. Given the increase in infrastructure and adoption the most likely effect is a shallower, longer winter. (The more something represents the entire system the slower it moves, economies move in decades long cycles, BTC could have month long cycles starting out. Lows around -75-80% off the ATH.


'Miracle 2013 style double top'

We ran out of new suckers, that is why the price stopped going up. Double top would need:

-New even larger wave of speculators. Coinbase was the #1 app, on TV every night, major exchanges in all countries with rich speculators. The next level up requires infrastructure that is years away at best
-Belief that 100k is possible. No one will pay 20 unless they think someone will pay 40, 40 buyer needs to believe in 80 buyer coming etc. A drop to 6k erodes this
-All the stuck bagholders have to get even or accept their losses, this places a huge ask capping any rallies

Nah... ppl buy without knowing where its going. If it goes past 12k ppl will buy cuz it could hit 13k... etc. fact that it hit 20k means people expect it to be able to hit 40k or 60k. The fact that we are still above 1200 is itself a huge sign of potential, 3 month Downward trendlines notwithstanding. Bitcoin price is still higher than gold price (oz). That is a insane reality.

[jojo69]

for fuck's sake

now you have me actually seeing mammoths in the chart

[Biodom]

Ya'know, those smug douchebags can mock and parody Bitcoin and crypto all they want. I'm sure Jamie Dimon and the big bank establishment is loving that shit, as it keeps the Average Joes away longer because they mock it, like Bitcoin and the whole space is just one big scammy joke, a short term fad that only idiots would get involved in. Mind fuck on Average Joe, mission accomplished.

But we'll have the last laugh alright... oh yes...

Actually, the whole show was informative. I give it a B-
They only truly made fun of Bitconnect and B. Pierce, and rightfully so on both occasions because it is hilarious to hear what they were actually saying.
Nobody there made fun of btc/Satoshi, etc.
IMHO, the space should police itself better (in terms of pointing fingers and saying stuff, not in terms of censorship) so true scammers don't rise above the fold.

for fuck's sake

now you have me actually seeing mammoths in the chart

There is plenty of bad mood around here because almost nobody sold at 19.6K and now they think that it is another 2014-2015.
I don't think that it is, but it gathers steam as a prevailing opinion in various places.

[d_eddie]

for fuck's sake

now you have me actually seeing mammoths in the chart

What's even more fun is fractal beasties.

6 hours. Total time interval just under 1 month. We know the two small critters at the end, they're likely the tail of the next Cthulhu pangolin (the dominant animal at this scale).


As good as any TA, I promise.

[Anon136]

If this were a science we could all be rich. I cant provide evidence for why the price will go up or down in the short run. That is an unreasonable standard. No one can do that. I am going to do my best to explain my position as clearly as possible. If that isn't good enough for you than you can just piss right the fuck off. Also let me be clear. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I'm just sharing my experience and my thought processes. If they fail to meet the expectations of your vastly superior intellect well then too damn bad. I do the best I can and I have done pretty well for myself so far.

Look at my post here from a few pages back.

It made a very solid looking bottom with very reasonable growth coming out of that bottom, a healthy and calm retracement down to about half of that run up then further upside that broke out past the last high. It's just what bitcoin charts have looked like to me when the bottom was in in the past. It looked like textbook - people are done freaking out so therefore we can resume the more general trend that is up. And ultimately I am a bull long term. So when ever people stop freaking out and cool their heads after a mania bitcoin tends to resume the general multi year bull trend.

Hopefully that passes your "logic" requirements. I was the most bullish I have ever been at the start of this month. In fact I was so bullish that I was actually saying yes to normies that asked me if they should buy bitcoin. I hadn't done that since pre 1000. I was partly so bullish because of the logical articulable reasons described above, but also partly because of intuition. I have been staring at these charts every day for 8 years. I have gotten to the point where it is pretty rare that I am wrong. If you want evidence for that, than too bad, I haven't put any public predictions on record that I know how to find because again, I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything.

The main reason I'm bearish is because I was the most bullish I have ever been on bitcoin in my life just a few days ago and this decline took me more off guard than any thing else ever has in this market. I have never been that wrong before. I was so wrong that I actually gave the normies that asked me for advice the wrong advice for the first time ever. So I adapted. I took some of my crypto portfolio into USD and but put in a stop to prevent me from being punished too hard.

If you can't respect that than I'm sorry. I just gave you everything I have. If you still want to accuse me of lacking logic or reason than we will just have to part ways and stop talking to each other. I don't want to do that though because you are a legendary and I respect that and we are on the same team.

[d_eddie]

The main reason I'm bearish is because I was the most bullish I have ever been on bitcoin in my life just a few days ago and this decline took me more off guard than any thing else ever has in this market. I have never been that wrong before. I was so wrong that I actually gave the normies that asked me for advice the wrong advice for the first time ever. So I adapted. I took some of my crypto portfolio into USD and but put in a stop to prevent me from being punished too hard.

How about an insurance? A leveraged short as a hedge, built gradually and pre-calculated to liquidate at an arbitrary level of your choice. Say, 21k. Or 30k. The higher the cutoff level, the costlier the hedge of course, to guarantee similar performance at 5k. Or 3k. 1k?

[Anon136]

The main reason I'm bearish is because I was the most bullish I have ever been on bitcoin in my life just a few days ago and this decline took me more off guard than any thing else ever has in this market. I have never been that wrong before. I was so wrong that I actually gave the normies that asked me for advice the wrong advice for the first time ever. So I adapted. I took some of my crypto portfolio into USD and but put in a stop to prevent me from being punished too hard.

How about an insurance? A leveraged short as a hedge, built gradually and pre-calculated to liquidate at an arbitrary level of your choice. Say, 21k. Or 30k. The higher the cutoff level, the costlier the hedge of course, to guarantee similar performance at 5k. Or 3k. 1k?

Hm maybe. I'm an american though so I cant get on bitfinex. What do you suppose is the best alternative to bitfinex for leveraged contracts like that?

[blacky90]

shit i am afraid 

could we see still lower levels than $6000?

[JayJuanGee]

You are off base if you conclude that I am criticizing your comments based on their bearishness rather than their bullishness... Although you are correct that personally I likely have a greater tendency to focus on bear FUDspreaders rather than bulls who are trying to get folks to buy.  

Nonetheless, my attention to you and/or your recent posts is largely irrelevant and seems to be an attempt to detract substantive discussions towards me... ridiculous.

Of course, you can predict BTC prices and dynamics in whatever you want and using whatever evidence that you want.   And, people in this thread can point out deficiencies and biases in your predictions, which is what I have been doing regarding several of your recent posts in which you are referring to some supposed "ah ha" moment that you have come to at around (or perhaps nearly after) your selling of a decent stash of your bitcoin, and because of your supposed "ah ha" moment, that does not seem to be based on much of anything beyond some kind of bare assertion, you want to share those feelings with peeps reading this thread.

 What I am doing is asserting that your BTC price prediction (and assertion of current dynamics) seems largely based upon your having had sold a decent portion of your BTC and perhaps unsubstantiated emotions rather than any kind of meaningful evidence or logic, and my responses should allow you to respond to my criticisms, but seems that the best you can come up with is to assert the thread (including yours truly) is too diluted into bull circle jerk thinking.. blah blah blah.. . and without really substantiating any of your earlier assertions beyond that you had sold some BTC and you are hoping the prices go down, now.  

Sure, you could end up being correct that BTC prices go down from here, but could be more of a result of luck rather than any kind of meaningful insight that you have shared about your views of short-term BTC price dynamics.

If this were a science we could all be rich. I cant provide evidence for why the price will go up or down in the short run. That is an unreasonable standard.

I think that my comments stand on their own, and your non-responsiveness to substance, and your defensiveness seems to be your own failure and refusal to attempt to engage with your assertions, but instead just to blurt out nonsensical assertions based on taro cards, perhaps?

No one can do that.

Certainly, I am not asking for that, and your repeatedly failing and refusing to address the substance of my response and instead spending additional energies devolving into mischaracterizations and defensiveness.

I am going to do my best to explain my position as clearly as possible. If that isn't good enough for you than you can just piss right the fuck off.

I doubt that you are going to get rid of me that easily, and also I am having my doubts about whether you are going to even try to make matters clear because you seem to be emotionally inclined rather than truly intending to share information with others in this thread.

Also let me be clear. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I'm just sharing my experience and my thought processes.

Could be word choices, I suppose.

If they fail to meet the expectations of your vastly superior intellect well then too damn bad.

Certainly, I am not asserting to have superior intellect, I was merely attempting to engage with you about your assertions and you mostly seem inclined towards deflection and non-responsiveness, defensiveness and distraction on seeming ad hominem irrelevancies.

I do the best I can and I have done pretty well for myself so far.

Could be that you are doing the best that you can, and no one (including yours truly) is asserting that you are not doing well for yourself, so I don't really see the need for such ongoing defensiveness.

Look at my post here from a few pages back.

I don't know why it is necessary for me to do homework.  I am just responding to what you said as you said it... and my memory of your recent postings that were asserting pretty much the same thing about the supposed entry into this bear market that you have realized at around the time that you chose to sell a decent portion of your holdings.  No need for me to research or for you to take any of this personal in trying to get me to research into the asserted greatness of your earlier posts.