Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Hehe, it would be nice, wouldn't it? However, I'm too much of a newbie at trading - and what's more, I'm kind of ignoring on purpose the intricacies of proper TA. That's why, if I came up with something like this, it must be already a well-known technique, and I'm quite confident it already has a name. If I knew its name, I could look it up and learn about possible pitfalls.

Could you recap what you're up to?

I used the last dip to lighten my safety short and profit a bit. The dip was welcome, because my short entry point was drifting towards unprofitability as the price raised.

Now I'm waiting to rebuild the missing part a bit at a time, scalping the small waves as we get back to where we were, around 8.5-8.6k. When will it be? I don't know, of course. That's the unnerving nursing/babysitting part.

My ultimate goal is having a short that tracks the current price, ideally an inch higher up from it (wishful thinking, and impossible on maxima. I know).

When I'm set or near-set, let them moon it - I'll drop it when the pain exceeds my threshold. Let them swamp it - I'll get richer than I were without my safety short.

Certainly, one thing that you are attempting that is quite different from me (and jbreher I believe - and quite a few quys and perhaps gal are leery of such) is that you are incorporating margin dynamics into your plays that make them more complicated.  Therefore, if you are able to describe systematic ways to employ margin, then you will be able to contribute to the space in your own unique ways. 

By the way, I have concluded that in bitcoin it can be very very very profitable merely playing with strategies that involve straight trading and no margins, so therefore margin trading is not necessary in order to get very rich from bitcoin.  It would take quite a bit to convince me to employ margin trading or that I would acknowledge that such is necessary - however, if you are able to present clear and simple techniques that are easily understandable, then I for one might be willing to attempt your strategy, if it makes sense to me and seems that there is a way that I can use it to make myself feel more comfortable (rather than less comfortable because of such employment of it).

[bitserve]

Below is a copy of my earlier attempt at a response to the matter (although my nested response is directed at birr, it is also intended for Rosewater, and I am not sure if he read it), and in essence I am saying that reverse dollar cost averaging is stupid.

Sure you can sell a chunk of BTC if you are nervous about whatever situation you have gotten yourself into, but you need to go back to the strategy of buying on the way down and selling on the way up because it does not work to attempt dollar cost averaging the other way around... and sure, sometimes when in doubt an alternative plan (especially in BTC) would just be to HODLCRAEFULly through the situation.

But what you are arguing there is that it is basically a wrong idea to exit low. Which we all agree. But he was especifically asking if it was better to exit (now) in a single trade or to dollar cost average the exit. The intention to exit was thus a premise in his question.

As such, it is better to do it averaging the exit for exactly the same reasons it is good to average the entry. I also suggested an alternative way which is scalping the volatility for liquidity (you basically assume downtrend and act accordingly in the staggered trades using the volatility to get an additional profit ie: sell double on each daily pump and buy half on each daily dip). But it all depends on the deadline someone has to complete the full exit.

[HairyMaclairy]

So we going to get one of those weekend pumps instead of dump?

Exactly my hunch. I got it while following the price more closely than usual, scalping my short up. I'm gonna have a hard weekend for sure :-)

Edit:  Genesis Capital has lent over $100 million in crypto to bears.

https://amp.businessinsider.com/a-bitcoin-trading-firm-just-opened-up-a-lending-business-and-its-going-gangbusters-2018-3?__twitter_impression=true

This sounds like bullshit. It can't be true. Such a business model leaks too much profit if the underlying cryptocurrency appreciates.

I assume both principal and interest is payable in BTC.

The way I read it, the loan is denominated in USD. If so, it's impossible to claim the same BTC amount. Or did I get it wrong? I'm stressed out by my safe trading binge.

Nah it’s denominated in BTC. 

This would mean they borrow some amount in bitcoin, sell it, and then repay in bitcoin (at whatever price) whenever the loan comes due."

[d_eddie]

Woops, can't even read anymore. Thanks for setting me straight.

[d_eddie]

+500 dollars erased in matter of minutes

That's when a short on the side turns into a valuable asset.

[HairyMaclairy]

Oopsie

[JayJuanGee]

Below is a copy of my earlier attempt at a response to the matter (although my nested response is directed at birr, it is also intended for Rosewater, and I am not sure if he read it), and in essence I am saying that reverse dollar cost averaging is stupid.

Sure you can sell a chunk of BTC if you are nervous about whatever situation you have gotten yourself into, but you need to go back to the strategy of buying on the way down and selling on the way up because it does not work to attempt dollar cost averaging the other way around... and sure, sometimes when in doubt an alternative plan (especially in BTC) would just be to HODLCRAEFULly through the situation.

But what you are arguing there is that it is basically a wrong idea to exit low. Which we all agree. But he was especifically asking if it was better to exit (now) in a single trade or to dollar cost average the exit. The intention to exit was thus a premise in his question.

Here is one time that I will concede (it does not happen very often) that the wordiness of my response may have caused a loss of the thrust of what I was attempting to say.

Pretty much I was attempting to say that if you believe that you have fucked up, and you want to feel comfortable because you believe the price is going to go down, then you should figure out a way to sell a chunk that will cause you to become more comfortable, and then continue with a strategy of buying on the way down and selling on the way up (and that would not be dollar cost average selling on the way down because that makes little fucking sense in light of the more grande principle that calls for buying on the way down and selling on the way up).

I understand the premise and intention of his question, and I think that the strategy goes against the overall principle that I would be advocating.

Of course, we are kind of mixing two principles here, because dollar cost averaging does not really have anything to do with price, and dollar cost averaging is a time thing... so following a pure dollar cost averaging strategy would be to just buy or sell an exact amount (perhaps once a week) no matter what the price was at that time, and I am not opposed to that kind of strategy; however, the way that Rosewater was using the term, he seem to be referring to selling an incremental amount on the way down (irrespective of time), and just to be clear and repetitive, I think that is a stupid and even a strategy that is contrary to MORE GRAND principles to buy on the way down and sell on the way up.   

As such, it is better to do it averaging the exit for exactly the same reasons it is good to average the entry.

For reasons already outlined above, I don't think so.

I also suggested an alternative way which is scalping the volatility for liquidity (you basically assume downtrend and act accordingly in the staggered trades using the volatility to get an additional profit ie: sell double on each daily pump and buy half on each daily dip). But it all depends on the deadline someone has to complete the full exit.

Actually, you are describing a little bit different of a principle, and I cannot really disagree with this kind of mitigation/compromise strategy because you can tailor such an approach to make the downside less painful than it might otherwise be, and thereby cause you better downside protections because you are attempting to ensure that you are not selling at the absolute bottom... so I agree with that kind of attempt at mitigating damages to the best of your ability (that kind of is hoping that the bottom is close to being in).

[xhomerx10]

Satoshi vision conference ?

Is there any evidence AT ALL that satoshi's vision was to "scale" bitcoin by cramming more and more transactions into blocks until the point where full node operators need to open a data center and purchase a T1 line? Where the hell does ver get this crap about this being "satoshi's vision"?

...that has nothing to do with the number of transactions.

Can you be more specific? What has nothing to do with the number of transactions?

The number of transactions has nothing to do with the choice to build a data center.

ooooookkkkkk. You are off on a different planet buddy.

Open source. We know how it works. Have known from the start.

You are the one making an assertion here. In what way does the number of transactions force miners into data centers?

  It might help this discussion to note that full node ≠ miner

[d_eddie]

Now I feel as though there will be IRS agents infiltrating our party.  I suggest we have to sign a message with our posted addresses to gain entry.  Maybe r0ach can guard the door to keep the riff raff out

And worse than the IRS, possibly. It will be a meetup of very rich peeps, remember: one million dollars will be just 10 BTC.

I think the details (place, time, reservations) should only be discussed in a private board. Invitation-only private. And yes, it would be appropriate to have some state of the art crypto verification at the door - like signing a message with the right key. No joke.

[Rsiyz]

bitcoin is in rekt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
and take health coin with self.. dumb believe idiots are here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[bones261]

bitcoin is in rekt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
and take health coin with self.. dumb believe idiots are here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Google translate is not your friend. 

[gentlemand]

Google translate is not your friend. 

Google is a great program, which shows small skills in this area in their language and affects overall. If you disagree with having a penis

[Icygreen]

didn't read the whole thing but depents on witch kind of booze .... there are some pricey bottles of booze on the market

 
 Seriously - I'll throw 0.5 BTC for libations towards the $100k party. 0.5 BTC == 0.5 BTC after-all, right ? I'm playing with that much for my Lightning nodes, so it seems fair to "blow the other 0.5 on crazy party shit" - to my mind.

Already making more promises? But this one's for really reals right?

[marcus_of_augustus]

Yesterday: Lightning goes beta
Today: Visa head honcho opines on bitcoin below
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/16/visa-finance-chief-attacks-bitcoin-bubble.html

Lightning: would cost about 1c or even less for merchants to accept
Visa: costs 3% (at least) for merchants to accept

Hmmm, I wonder what may win out eventually

hahahahaha ... this guy is really the typical dinosaur in serious denial about the comet .. hey Prabhu, 2013 called and it wants it's FUD back.



this other FUD about the shoeshine boy quote is being deceptively used out of context also ... in 1928 the shoeshine boy myth was created by Joe Kennedy (prez's dad) to articulate that everybody was all-in, including the shoeshine boy and that is what he used to mark the top.

In bitcoin the shoeshine boy (do they even exist anymore since EBT cards?) is talking bitcoin because he's a man on the gritty streets who has scored something questionable with it and the top tiers don't want to even talk about bitcoin in polite company (you can't shut them up about overbought stocks, bonds and real estate) ... it's nothing like the "everybody all-in at the top" talk ... it's just some dumb FUD pablum they are feeding the feeble minded chatterboxes in the lamestream to spread around and keep the masses from stirring.

Go long on the shoeshine boy!

[infofront]

bitcoin is in rekt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
and take health coin with self.. dumb believe idiots are here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Delete awful troll post, or leave it up for entertainment value? That is a dilemma we regularly face here.

[HairyMaclairy]

This sounds lovely but I am deeply suspicious. 

https://blog.genesis.vision/genesis-markets-announcement-f520ea832168

[infofront]

Yesterday: Lightning goes beta
Today: Visa head honcho opines on bitcoin below
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/16/visa-finance-chief-attacks-bitcoin-bubble.html

Lightning: would cost about 1c or even less for merchants to accept
Visa: costs 3% (at least) for merchants to accept

Hmmm, I wonder what may win out eventually

hahahahaha ... this guy is really the typical dinosaur in serious denial about the comet .. hey Prabhu, 2013 called and it wants it's FUD back.


this other FUD about the shoeshine boy quote is being deceptively used out of context also ... in 1928 the shoeshine boy myth was created by Joe Kennedy (prez's dad) to articulate that everybody was all-in, including the shoeshine boy and that is what he used to mark the top.

In bitcoin the shoeshine boy (do they even exist anymore since EBT cards?) is talking bitcoin because he's a man on the gritty streets who has scored something questionable with it and the top tiers don't want to even talk about bitcoin in polite company (you can't shut them up about overbought stocks, bonds and real estate) ... it's nothing like the "everybody all-in at the top" talk ... it's just some dumb FUD pablum they are feeding the feeble minded chatterboxes in the lamestream to spread around and keep the masses from stirring.

Go long on the shoeshine boy!

I prefer this shoeshine story: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJzNUydlQ4I

[PoolMinor]

@birr... The first part of your discussion of dollar cost averaging lends some insight to the practice because you are indicating that there is something wrong with employing an opposite strategy... however, then your suggestion largely devolves into a kind of recommendation of a reverse dollar cost average strategy.

NO matter if you are in a BTC accumulation stage, or a maintenance stage or a liquidation stage, your strategy should be to attempt to sell BTC on the way up and to buy BTC on the way down.  Of course the more you are on one spectrum or another remains a personal choice but it also effects how you may employ the strategy.  So for example, if you are in a BTC accumulation stage you might buy more on dips and perhaps sell less on rises because your goal is accumulation, but that should not cause you to sell on the way down or buy on the way up.

Usually, if some one who is employing a sell on the way up and buy on the way down is panicking because they screwed up and did not sell enough, so the strategy probably would be to attempt to make up for the screw up by selling a decent sized chunk and then returning to the strategy of buying if the price goes down with the proceeds that were generated from the sale.

Continuing to sell on the way down or creating a plan that continues to sell on the way down is not a good strategy nor is it equally good as buying on the way down... and perhaps making and emergency sell because of a screw up and then maybe even going back to HODL, if not feeling comfortable enough to buying on the way down.

[HairyMaclairy]

China to ban people with bad social credit from using planes / trains

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1GS10S?__twitter_impression=true

Sound a bit like SSSS from the TSA.

[d_eddie]

This sounds lovely but I am deeply suspicious.  

https://blog.genesis.vision/genesis-markets-announcement-f520ea832168

the Alpha version of the platform is launching on April 1st.

Funny birthday.