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yeah, I agree, just in this instance..just seeing the old ETF supposed, maybe happening, and then does not happen...usual reversal
what is the reason it pops up NOW, besides my 'paranoia'? Not seeing much, but the 'supposed' ETF angle
than again, wtf do I know...just saying, what came to mind on the current pump
O.k. Let's attempt to isolate reasons and to play a hypothetical.
Let's hypothetically say that the ETF is having some kind of effect on the BTC price currently, if so, we could still have a buy on the rumor and sell on the news situation. Sometimes just the idea of something bullish happening could cause a pump in a time period that is quite a bit before the official announcement, and then when the thing actually hits, whether yes or no, then the opposite effect could happen (a dump, even with positive news, although positive news would likely cause a longer term financialization and therefore pump upon the BTC price).
On the other hand, the hypothetical is all wrong - because a large amount of the time, there are several factors that affect the price, including supply and demand issues across 100s of liquidation mechanisms, including dynamics with alts. We also have momentum and manipulation, too.... So, sure we can play with hypotheticals that attempt to narrow down the reasons for a pump or a dump and maybe even we can list out five things that are going on that have an effect on the price in one direction or another, yet I still maintain my position that we do not necessarily benefit from putting too much effort on attempting be conclusive about the direction one way or another, because as soon as we do, then we are likely to get surprised in the other direction.
Take margin positions for example, and I have seen a post from today saying that everything is lining up for long, including long positions, but as soon as a bunch of longs line up with margin, there will be some whale(s) who believe its to their advantage to force them to close (by pushing the price down)
I would rather this just be a coincidence and part of the general fatigue and pump back to what I think are reasonable above 10k prices
but if wishes were fishes...we'd all take a swim...
(wanders off mumbling to self..have a hard enough time with 'current' reality....add magical internet money on top of that mess and I'm
more than a bit befuddled...)
I do agree with you that if you can pinpoint the reason(s), then you can figure out a little bit what you are going to do, and what kind of tentative timeline to give your plan. On the other hand, you can still make a plan for what the price actually does rather than needing some kind of reason(s) for it. So in that regard, if the price goes up, then you make play x, and if prices go down you make plan y.. also you could have a plan to cash out.. certain percentage(s) of your stash for every certain amount of time period (that is also not dependent upon reasons). So if your overall plan was to cash out 3% per year, then instead you might choose to cash out .25% per month (which is 1/12) of 3%.. or some variation that does not depend on any explanation for why BTC prices are doing A, B or C.
Poll
