Bitcoin Forum
August 25, 2019, 09:09:06 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.18.0 [Torrent] (New!)
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: What do you think about more?
Sex - 54 (39.1%)
Bitcoin - 84 (60.9%)
Total Voters: 138

Pages: « 1 ... 20967 20968 20969 20970 20971 20972 20973 20974 20975 20976 20977 20978 20979 20980 20981 20982 20983 20984 20985 20986 20987 20988 20989 20990 20991 20992 20993 20994 20995 20996 20997 20998 20999 21000 21001 21002 21003 21004 21005 21006 21007 21008 21009 21010 21011 21012 21013 21014 21015 21016 [21017] 21018 21019 21020 21021 21022 21023 21024 21025 21026 21027 21028 21029 21030 21031 21032 21033 21034 21035 21036 21037 21038 21039 21040 21041 21042 21043 21044 21045 21046 21047 21048 21049 21050 21051 21052 21053 21054 21055 21056 21057 21058 21059 21060 21061 21062 21063 21064 21065 21066 21067 ... 24841 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21336867 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (104 posts by 20 users deleted.)
drays
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652
Merit: 1022


View Profile
August 12, 2018, 12:36:38 PM

Wow, so insightful, exactly what a lot of people have been saying

I feel your sarcasm Smiley
Good point though. So if lot of people are saying that, is it necessarily false?  Wink
1566767346
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1566767346

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1566767346
Reply with quote  #2

1566767346
Report to moderator
1566767346
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1566767346

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1566767346
Reply with quote  #2

1566767346
Report to moderator
1566767346
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1566767346

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1566767346
Reply with quote  #2

1566767346
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1566767346
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1566767346

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1566767346
Reply with quote  #2

1566767346
Report to moderator
1566767346
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1566767346

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1566767346
Reply with quote  #2

1566767346
Report to moderator
1566767346
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1566767346

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1566767346
Reply with quote  #2

1566767346
Report to moderator
Torque
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1890
Merit: 1509



View Profile
August 12, 2018, 12:43:10 PM

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/1028426579158884352
Quote
According to the Bitmain pre-IPO investor deck, they sold most of their #Bitcoin for #Bcash. At $900/BCH, they've bled half a billion in the last 3 months. If Bitcoin Core devs didn't disclose the Bcash vulnerability, it could've wiped a billion dollars off their balance sheets.

Nearly two million BCH? Are they trying to emulate the Hunt brothers?

They were trying to make Bcash lol more valuable than Bitcoin by restricting supply (and touting it to increase demand). Bitmain holds all the Bcash lol it has ever mined in a huge wallet. They have been losing money since day 1 trying to flip Bitcoin.  

They used every tool at their disposal.  They might possibly have pulled it off but enough people have seen through them.

Pretty hilarious too that litecoiners scoff at Bcash for the same reason, but don't know or realize that Chinese miners/exchanges are sitting on > 7M litecoin to restrict supply.... lol
mymenace
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1596
Merit: 1061


Smile


View Profile
August 12, 2018, 12:46:53 PM

Wow, so insightful, exactly what a lot of people have been saying

I feel your sarcasm Smiley
Good point though. So if lot of people are saying that, is it necessarily false?  Wink

That is the problem, its been false for so long, what's real

Transparency is key
Majormax
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2114
Merit: 1072


View Profile WWW
August 12, 2018, 01:07:22 PM

Apparently reddit does not like my humor (or lack thereof).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/96mnhp/for_those_who_bought_bitcoin_to_get_rich_my/

downvotes galore

This is what worries me (apart of lack of humor or differences in humor perception): redditers are still bullish, very bullish.. too bullish. And not only redditers, but here in BCT too - no despair traces are visible en masse. No despair - no trend reversal, and I wonder how long this market can drop until people finally panic. I understand it is hard to shake out old Bitcoiners, but the new entrants should have already started to capitulate. But nope - even those who think Bitcoin will drop further, are setting 3K target, and expect moon then (in ~2 years). This particularly should mean the 3K bottom is to never happen - as too much people expect it. Bitcoin should either bounce noticeably higher or noticeably lower. Given the absence of despair now, I start to think it could go lower... which is highly undesirable scenario as I see it, as it will punch through weekly MA200 then, and also its will be disaster for miners and many crypto businesses.

But I am not really social media aware guy, and I may easily miss something. So... a question: did anyone see traces of mass panic in social media, enough to call it a mass sentiment..?

P.S. Please don't call me FUDder. Yes, I am not a bull now, and I miss TERA2 here, but I am just expressing my own concern, and will be genuinely interested in what people here think of this.

I agree with your analysis. From what I see around many, many different sources ( offline as well as online), there is a majority of bullishness.

Lots of price rise forecasts, mostly predicated on hope alone. Lots of anger directed at bearish forecasts.

Unfortunately then, price is stiil flowing down the river of hope, and it could take a long time and a big decline to change that.

I wish it wasn't so.
Majormax
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2114
Merit: 1072


View Profile WWW
August 12, 2018, 01:15:42 PM

There's doesn't need to be "mass panic". That's not a necessary requirement to determine whether the bottom has happened.

Mass panic selloff - despair - indifference - the time of low interest by general public, and active work by the core supporters -- then natural growth from inside, caused by the persistent work of real value creators, such as developers, adopters and promoters.
I believe before BTC can grow again, there should be new achievements to show, and more healthy community caring about fundamentals, not just price.
This is how I see normal way of resolving the consequences of the latest bubble.

I wonder how do you see the possible path? Do you really think BTC is ready for another rally in this situation now? Or you think it can go sideways long enough so new development matures and adoption kicks in?

IMO BTC is headed for another rally, maybe from a lower level (perhaps 5k) which will reach around 7.5k by October and fail.  The subsequent fall may get to 4k, but in best case could get to 3k, in which case you could call it 'Mass Panic' , and the low could be 'in'.

The worse case would be another low around 4k followed by a rally to near 6k (by February ??) and a continued fall after that, with another year of bear market from here.

As far as Development and Adoption goes, that will continue whilst price falls, and even better when a more stable low level is reached.. Ironically, there is less proper development in a strong bull phase, because everyone is distracted by easy money.

Rosewater Foundation
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 254



View Profile
August 12, 2018, 01:25:37 PM

No despair - no trend reversal
Science. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Rosewater Foundation
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 254



View Profile
August 12, 2018, 01:30:25 PM

[something something] easy money.
I'm in. Cool
Majormax
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2114
Merit: 1072


View Profile WWW
August 12, 2018, 01:31:21 PM

No despair - no trend reversal
Science. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

/sarc off     ..    Agree  



In fact, responding to both your posts, I would say it's true that most ppl overthink this trading analysis... and they lose.

Just finding one or two very simple (seemingly over-simple) yet powerful drivers, and seeing price through those prisms, has a better chance of success.
RealMachasm
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 187
Merit: 24


View Profile
August 12, 2018, 01:33:03 PM

Apparently reddit does not like my humor (or lack thereof).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/96mnhp/for_those_who_bought_bitcoin_to_get_rich_my/

downvotes galore

This is what worries me (apart of lack of humor or differences in humor perception): redditers are still bullish, very bullish.. too bullish. And not only redditers, but here in BCT too - no despair traces are visible en masse. No despair - no trend reversal, and I wonder how long this market can drop until people finally panic. I understand it is hard to shake out old Bitcoiners, but the new entrants should have already started to capitulate. But nope - even those who think Bitcoin will drop further, are setting 3K target, and expect moon then (in ~2 years). This particularly should mean the 3K bottom is to never happen - as too much people expect it. Bitcoin should either bounce noticeably higher or noticeably lower. Given the absence of despair now, I start to think it could go lower... which is highly undesirable scenario as I see it, as it will punch through weekly MA200 then, and also its will be disaster for miners and many crypto businesses.

But I am not really social media aware guy, and I may easily miss something. So... a question: did anyone see traces of mass panic in social media, enough to call it a mass sentiment..?

P.S. Please don't call me FUDder. Yes, I am not a bull now, and I miss TERA2 here, but I am just expressing my own concern, and will be genuinely interested in what people here think of this.

I agree with your analysis. From what I see around many, many different sources ( offline as well as online), there is a majority of bullishness.

Lots of price rise forecasts, mostly predicated on hope alone. Lots of anger directed at bearish forecasts.

Unfortunately then, price is stiil flowing down the river of hope, and it could take a long time and a big decline to change that.

I wish it wasn't so.

I really cant make sense of any of this?
So what we are saying that in order for the price to rise it has to go down first?
Why?
What if more people get in to bitcoin? Is the price going to go down?
Whats wrong with as demand goes up so will the price and if supply goes up then the price will decline?
Sometimes when I read this stuff it makes my brain hurt! So many double,double, double negatives! In the end everybody tries to second guess what everybody else is doing that we all end up tripping over ourselves.
If you can afford to wait then just Buy and HODL. Its worked out fine so far.
josephpogi
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 434
Merit: 168



View Profile
August 12, 2018, 01:35:57 PM

Majormax
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2114
Merit: 1072


View Profile WWW
August 12, 2018, 01:40:37 PM
Last edit: August 12, 2018, 02:29:08 PM by Majormax



  1.   I really cant make sense of any of this?


  2.  If you can afford to wait then just Buy and HODL. Its worked out fine so far.

1.  Most ppl can't get their head round it. It needs too much experience and analysis. The market moves in waves : each wave sets up the preconditions for the next.

2.  That is the best simple advice.


and 3. See my post just above,  re keeping it simple.


edit :

I just realised that worth adding a note on contrarian logic, for those that dont know :

Bull markets climb a 'Wall of Worry'

Bear markets flow down a 'River of Hope'


Thus sentiment is a contrary indicator.  The majority of sentiment does not change overnight, and a lot of 'work' is need to be done by time and price, before the herd changes its mind.

BobLawblaw
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1372
Merit: 1981


BitcoinTalk's Most Fabulously Gay Black Power-Top


View Profile
August 12, 2018, 01:43:26 PM
Merited by Torque (1)

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/96lqxg/bullish_bitmain_alnost_all_in_bch_that_is_102/

tl;dr: Bitmain dun goofed on BCH reel gud

xhomerx10
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2114
Merit: 2247



View Profile
August 12, 2018, 01:46:09 PM



 I've often wondered what the hodlers use to purchase these luxury cars?  If you're hodlin, wouldn't you still be driving a 1998 Ford Crown Vic P71?!  I must be doing it wrong.  Perhaps they are leveraging their ruggedly-handsome, good looks?
Rosewater Foundation
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 254



View Profile
August 12, 2018, 02:04:50 PM
Merited by bones261 (2), xhomerx10 (1), bitserve (1)



 I've often wondered what the hodlers use to purchase these luxury cars?  If you're hodlin, wouldn't you still be driving a 1998 Ford Crown Vic P71?!  I must be doing it wrong.  Perhaps they are leveraging their ruggedly-handsome, good looks?

You're only supposed to hodl until the top. We did it wrongly.
josephpogi
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 434
Merit: 168



View Profile
August 12, 2018, 02:15:33 PM



 I've often wondered what the hodlers use to purchase these luxury cars?  If you're hodlin, wouldn't you still be driving a 1998 Ford Crown Vic P71?!  I must be doing it wrong.  Perhaps they are leveraging their ruggedly-handsome, good looks?

You're only supposed to hodl until the top. We did it wrongly.
if you hold you will get a good amount of money  Cheesy
lightfoot
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946
Merit: 1109


I fix broken miners. And make holes in teeth :-)


View Profile
August 12, 2018, 02:40:09 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

Part of it is poking fun at legacy finance folks that I've started seeing on reddit. Financial advisers that were so good at their jobs that they never saw how well Bitcoin would do. For some reason their government required certifications did not include looking into things outside of their bubble. And instead of recognizing a potential new technology, they attack it because they need to protect their old system (after all, they did invest a lot of time in those classes and certs).
Indeed. While in Vegas last week I ran into thousands of "Evolve" people at some sort of "financial management" get together. All wearing same shirts, all ready to pull out their cards to give you financial advice (seemed like a pyramid scam).

Funniest part was waiting by a rest room and talking to a guy about it. Offered me his card, I said no, he said "so you're not ready to make REAL MONEY".

I told him I invested in Bitcoin early on. He shut up. Real money (spit). I want real bitcoins.

Edit: I just looked them up and found it World Financial Group. Basically a MLM scam. God I can call these frauds well.....
gembitz
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1022
Merit: 355


*Brute force will solve any Bitcoin problem*


View Profile
August 12, 2018, 02:46:26 PM

Part of it is poking fun at legacy finance folks that I've started seeing on reddit. Financial advisers that were so good at their jobs that they never saw how well Bitcoin would do. For some reason their government required certifications did not include looking into things outside of their bubble. And instead of recognizing a potential new technology, they attack it because they need to protect their old system (after all, they did invest a lot of time in those classes and certs).
Indeed. While in Vegas last week I ran into thousands of "Evolve" people at some sort of "financial management" get together. All wearing same shirts, all ready to pull out their cards to give you financial advice (seemed like a pyramid scam).

Funniest part was waiting by a rest room and talking to a guy about it. Offered me his card, I said no, he said "so you're not ready to make REAL MONEY".

I told him I invested in Bitcoin early on. He shut up. Real money (spit). I want real bitcoins.

Edit: I just looked them up and found it World Financial Group. Basically a MLM scam. God I can call these frauds well.....

you get your devil worshiper haxXoR badge?   Cheesy   muuhahaaa
xhomerx10
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2114
Merit: 2247



View Profile
August 12, 2018, 03:01:30 PM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)



 I've often wondered what the hodlers use to purchase these luxury cars?  If you're hodlin, wouldn't you still be driving a 1998 Ford Crown Vic P71?!  I must be doing it wrong.  Perhaps they are leveraging their ruggedly-handsome, good looks?

You're only supposed to hodl until the top. We did it wrongly.

 Then we'll start again and learn from our mistakes.  What's a good exit point this time?



original image by Victor Carapcea
https://www.facebook.com/karafoto.ro/
fabiorem
Sr. Member
****
Online Online

Activity: 854
Merit: 320



View Profile
August 12, 2018, 03:03:48 PM

This is what worries me (apart of lack of humor or differences in humor perception): redditers are still bullish, very bullish.. too bullish. And not only redditers, but here in BCT too - no despair traces are visible en masse. No despair - no trend reversal, and I wonder how long this market can drop until people finally panic. I understand it is hard to shake out old Bitcoiners, but the new entrants should have already started to capitulate. But nope - even those who think Bitcoin will drop further, are setting 3K target, and expect moon then (in ~2 years). This particularly should mean the 3K bottom is to never happen - as too much people expect it. Bitcoin should either bounce noticeably higher or noticeably lower. Given the absence of despair now, I start to think it could go lower... which is highly undesirable scenario as I see it, as it will punch through weekly MA200 then, and also its will be disaster for miners and many crypto businesses.

But I am not really social media aware guy, and I may easily miss something. So... a question: did anyone see traces of mass panic in social media, enough to call it a mass sentiment..?

P.S. Please don't call me FUDder. Yes, I am not a bull now, and I miss TERA2 here, but I am just expressing my own concern, and will be genuinely interested in what people here think of this.



How many times do we have to repeat that bitcoin is not a ordinary asset? That bitcoin exchanges are not the stock markets? That bitcoin is not a company, and not a product?

Bitcoin is a currency, and it is extremely disruptive, as it is not controlled by any nation-state.

This nocoiner mentality is depressing. You just see bitcoin as a vehicle, a tool, to make more fiat money.

You dont believe that, in the future, you could buy a house with a single bitcoin. And without the need to sell it in the first place.

Thats why people are not panicking, and you dont see massive panic sell. The guys from Wall Street were probably expecting it when they implemented futures markets for bitcoin, to drive the price down.
jojo69
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1484
Merit: 1815


no FOMO


View Profile
August 12, 2018, 03:08:06 PM

...No despair - no trend reversal...

I have long said that we are entirely too sophisticated for our own good.
Pages: « 1 ... 20967 20968 20969 20970 20971 20972 20973 20974 20975 20976 20977 20978 20979 20980 20981 20982 20983 20984 20985 20986 20987 20988 20989 20990 20991 20992 20993 20994 20995 20996 20997 20998 20999 21000 21001 21002 21003 21004 21005 21006 21007 21008 21009 21010 21011 21012 21013 21014 21015 21016 [21017] 21018 21019 21020 21021 21022 21023 21024 21025 21026 21027 21028 21029 21030 21031 21032 21033 21034 21035 21036 21037 21038 21039 21040 21041 21042 21043 21044 21045 21046 21047 21048 21049 21050 21051 21052 21053 21054 21055 21056 21057 21058 21059 21060 21061 21062 21063 21064 21065 21066 21067 ... 24841 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!