Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

Which bcash lol is best bcash lol?

[cAPSLOCK]

Which bcash lol is best bcash lol?

I officially dub it:

ABCash

Damn... it's almost too cool to give it away.  I could charge them but it'd need to be in something real like BITCOIN, or MONERO.

On second thought... make it MONERO.  I don't want anyone to know I did this.

[kurious]

https://economics.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/Faculty/Tsyvinski/cryptoreturns%208-7-2018.pdf
Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency

if the investor believes Bitcoin will continue to do as well as the past seven years, she should hold about 6.1 percent share of Bitcoin in her portfolio. Even if the investor believes Bitcoin will only have half of its historical performance going forward, she should still hold about 3.1 percent share of Bitcoin in her portfolio.

+ moar good stuff + some dodgy stuff

I had a friend who was a hedge fund manager, a 'macro' trader.  She was fascinated with crypto as it was an 'uncorrelated asset class' which in the investment world is a good things to find.   You don't want all a portfolio in asset classes that all respond to economic factors in the same way.  Everyone needs something in their portfolio that doesn't do what the old school investments do.

This seems to reach a similar conclusion:  Crypto is different to the old shit.  Best buy at least 'some' - it makes sense.

(Well found, Sir)

[Elwar]

2 days until the ProShares ETF is rejected.

Not your keys. Not your bitcoins.

[STT]

myself also still whitout children BUT i do think 50k coins are there in the near future "few years to be near future...." if its faster its all good but @50K i will not liquidate all of my coins .... i think i would max sell 30% or so then see how everything goes

I JUST LIKE MY COINS TO DAMN HARD  

At $50,000 I’ll probably sell about half & live off the rest, maybe buy a bunch of real estate so there’s constant money still coming in.
 

Thats a good explanation of why it'll never goto 50,000 then really.   In dollar terms, maybe USD does so horribly we can see that number but in value terms the only need for 50k is via the actual utility of BTC being so high that people are willing to hold it overnight and then you have a billion doing so the price is raised inadvertently.
 
Real estate is very likely more productive for most people and many dont have much spare cash so why is the price going to 50k in that scenario.   Money is more useful in transit but long term you'd need a good reason to push it that high I think.

BTC is depressed right now because US Dollar strength is apparent.  Its nonsense of course but all this tariff and Iran sanctions and so on gives the appearance of strong dollar.   So in terms of running a constant deficit and juggling 20tn of debt this does not work out for the FED or US treasury, it is unlikely to continue as a long term dynamic.    Almost completely obvious is that inflation is always going to be above interest rates, so allowing the reduction of debt in real terms and that means weak dollar.   The free market naturally searches for an alternative to a common standard unable to hold its value, if that wasnt true we'd be in 3 figures still.  Many consider strong dollar a possibility when market consensus turns opposite it should then be far less harsh an environment overall

^lol Torque soo cynical

Torque is right, governments main purpose is to be better then the negative scenario it replaces.   By itself government is not productive, its not part of growth, theres no profit and its literally a tax upon the economy and people its sitting on.    Main thing we can hope for is governance of the military which no other entity can control except this idea of democracy and the benefit of having everyone situated like this is they accept the title of public servant and when told immediately step down which avoids the problem any country with a strong military normally has.
  Really all government does is in its distribution of power and avoidance of harm, otherwise they operate poorly and with great cost compared to any normal competitive consideration.

We need competitive capitalism and we dont have it, we got forced pricing in interest rates and politics instead of business.  For now most of that politics is related to democracy but I dont suppose we always get that. That story is pretty much the biggest global issue I can think of ongoing every year maybe for the rest of my life until it falls over.   Even if crypto disappeared and was found to be of no use, we'd still be stuck with that problem of a failed currency system with countries occasionally reverting to near barter economies and suffering great losses in growth and efficiency.

[bones261]

Shorts @ATH and 100M Tether printed, fasten your seatbelts

Meh, I think what is going on as of late is that traders are BTFD, when there is one down to $63xx and lower and then scalping it for modest gains of 2%-4%. Apparently, with the "invisible walls," some big fish is probably implementing this strategy. Could even blame it on Spoofy's new strategy, (if you believe in Spoofy.)

[Last of the V8s]

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/trillions-what-is-a-trillion-dollars/ for a bigger picture


not sure about some of these figures, but basically

[andreibi]

2 days until the ProShares ETF is rejected.

Not your keys. Not your bitcoins.

Everyone knows it's a 95% chance of rejection. That's why shorts is at an all-time high.  And a likelihood that it does nothing to the price (being already priced in).

And then short sellers have to buy in order to close their positions, leading to a short squeeze rally.

[Elwar]

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/trillions-what-is-a-trillion-dollars/ for a bigger picture


not sure about some of these figures, but basically

$26.5 trillion in offshore money...

when Bitcoin is much easier than dealing with all of that

[European Central Bank]

do the exact opposite of what CNBC reckons and guess what happens?

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WPRBTC/X5WuyDQn-CNBC-Bitcoin-Indicator-is-pointing-to-a-massive-rally-soon/

[hodl_2015]

I officially dub it:
ABCash

I propose:
abcASH

[doc12]

I officially dub it:
ABCash

I propose:
abcASH

The other fork is FaketoshiCash then, or Fakecash for convenience 

[Biodom]

Bitcoin in Dec 2021 (more than 18 mo after halving) would be...

1. At peak (similar to 2013 and 2017)? 100k? 160K?
2. Coming off earlier blowoff peak in 2019-2020?
3. Being stuck in the doldrums, albeit with a higher price of 8K-10k?

IMHO, probabilities (from scenario 1-3) are 40%, 30%, 30%.

Your opinion?

[bones261]

I officially dub it:
ABCash

I propose:
abcASH

The other fork is FaketoshiCash then, or Fakecash for convenience  

The problem here is that BCH has(may be had, I haven't been keeping tabs on BCH for months.) at least two mining farms that are not signaling who they are. Many assumed that the mystery mining farms were Bitmain. However, with the way Craig Wright has been tweeting, I am beginning to suspect one if not both may be controlled by nchain. (He could be full of it too.) This is going to be a PITA for many casual BCH holders if the powers that be cannot agree. The difference between this fork and the original fork off of BTC is that there is likely to be no replay protection. Many BCH people are mistakingly looking forward to the split because they will get more free coinz. Hope they know how to split up their coins properly, when there is no reply protection. I know that I certainly don't know how to properly split my coins, even with reply protection. Thank God that my BCH holdings are basically dust.

[xhomerx10]

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/trillions-what-is-a-trillion-dollars/ for a bigger picture


not sure about some of these figures, but basically

 I took the liberty of scaling in Bitcoin.

[Last of the V8s]

Bitcoin in Dec 2021 (more than 18 mo after halving) would be...

1. At peak (similar to 2013 and 2017)? 100k? 160K?
2. Coming off earlier blowoff peak in 2019-2020?
3. Being stuck in the doldrums, albeit with a higher price of 8K-10k?

IMHO, probabilities (from scenario 1-3) are 40%, 30%, 30%.

Your opinion?

Is your last name Bear lol?
1. 810k 25%
2. 5%
3. 2%
4. Going up fast 10%
5. Dipping 58%

[nikauforest]

do the exact opposite of what CNBC reckons and guess what happens?

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/WPRBTC/X5WuyDQn-CNBC-Bitcoin-Indicator-is-pointing-to-a-massive-rally-soon/

Very high short position at the moment. +1000 dollar rally coming soon.

[Last of the V8s]

[kronos123]

Shorts @ATH and 100M Tether printed, fasten your seatbelts

Meh, I think what is going on as of late is that traders are BTFD, when there is one down to $63xx and lower and then scalping it for modest gains of 2%-4%. Apparently, with the "invisible walls," some big fish is probably implementing this strategy. Could even blame it on Spoofy's new strategy, (if you believe in Spoofy.)

Bitfinex exchange makes average volumes of about $ 15-20 billion a month, which for 3 months make about $ 50 billion; with a commission of 0.2% per transaction makes exactly $ 100 million

These 100 million are the profits of Bitfinex for the 2nd quarter 

[Last of the V8s]

Shorts @ATH and 100M Tether printed, fasten your seatbelts

Meh, I think what is going on as of late is that traders are BTFD, when there is one down to $63xx and lower and then scalping it for modest gains of 2%-4%. Apparently, with the "invisible walls," some big fish is probably implementing this strategy. Could even blame it on Spoofy's new strategy, (if you believe in Spoofy.)

Bitfinex exchange makes average volumes of about $ 15-20 billion a month, which for 3 months make about $ 50 billion; with a commission of 0.2% per transaction makes exactly $ 100 million

These 100 million are the profits of Bitfinex for the 2nd quarter  

quite the non-sequitur
anyway, not sure about that volume and their fees are less than that for the most part https://www.bitfinex.com/fees