Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rosewater Foundation]

Bored bored bored bored bored.

yup

im getting to the point of only checking the price every few days. soon it will be weeks between checks.

wake me up out of my stupor if anything interesting happens

ZZZzzzzzzz...

Thank you for nurturing the much needed capitulation.
Well gentlemen, let's get this done quickly.

Meh, the next halving won't come until mid 2020. This might linger on until late 2019.

I don't like feeling you might have a point.

I'm very specifically planning to be piss poor for the next few years. I don't want any surprises this time around.

[Ibian]

Bored bored bored bored bored.

yup

im getting to the point of only checking the price every few days. soon it will be weeks between checks.

wake me up out of my stupor if anything interesting happens

ZZZzzzzzzz...

Thank you for nurturing the much needed capitulation.
Well gentlemen, let's get this done quickly.

Meh, the next halving won't come until mid 2020. This might linger on until late 2019.

I don't like feeling you might have a point.

I'm very specifically planning to be piss poor for the next few years. I don't want any surprises this time around.

It's a funny thing, being richly poor. I have enough where I don't need to worry about a job, but still living like I used to. Which is still a completely ridiculous improvement, but looking forward to actually being able to spend money more or less freely.

[elrippos friend]

No pain, no gain.

This doesn't feel painful what's painful is the wife making me sell for the down payment on a home and soon. I'm going to lose out big.

understadble ,you would like to delay the house buying a bit for sure, but women stays women ,nothing to do about that

Personally I’d wait until mid 2021. I’d rent a couple more years & then buy the house outright in bitcoin.

Everybody has different circumstances though.

Right into the next housing bubble burst ... That would be nice timing  

haha bubble burst and BTC ATH , what a moment would that be .......
if possible i would wait to but i know if the girl/wife wants it ..... than it has to go fast and no time for logic

Ain't that the truth about the logic  

Not to be a sexist dick, but the ladies should be kept unaware of crypto holdings. It allows easier thinking in times of trouble. If really, really necessary, one could sell what's needed and magically come up with the money when it's needed.

Agreed. My wife is mostly kept in the dark regarding my crypto. She knows I have some, but that's pretty much where it ends.

Edit: I trust her and she's the only other person who would be able to access my private keys. However, I handle all of our money and investments. And if she knew how much I had, she'd be bugging me about a new house.

Muuuuuaaaaaahhhhhhaaaaaahhhhhhhaaaaaaa 
Exactly the same here with the exentsion, that i told her to buy in at 180 and at 380 and she said "Got no money for that internet thing, i can't use it for shopping!"
Yeah well, today the thing is different but hey, that's life 

[JayJuanGee]

My gf is pretty angry at me regarding bitcoin to be honest. If I’d cashed out at the ATH I’d have become a millionaire. At the current prices with my HODLED stash, I’m not.

She keeps telling me ‘bitcoin is finished, it must be over, you should have cashed out, we’ll never get another chance like that’.

It’s times like this I look at different charts from the past that show % drops from ATH’s & then look at the subsequent recoveries & new ATH’s that makes me smile & know everything will be ok.

Look out for 6-12 months after the next halving, that’s when I believe we will be wealthy bulls

A GF is one thing, but a wifey would be another thing. 

Perhaps your GF knows too much about your bitcoin stash, especially if her status remains GF, and it may be time to NEXT her or are you planning some kind of longer partnership with her?  Another possibility would be waiting for 2021, in order to NEXT her?

Whether you are in a close relationship or not, it seems problematic to have a significant other influencing your financial choices, if you have a joint venture, such as a business or a marriage that concludes that your BTC stash is also owned by your partner, then you might have to account for the less bullish posture of the other person(s) in the relationship....

Even though I agree that bitcoin has great chances of success in the coming years, I am not your business partner, so my opinion does not matter, yet we know that if we have total discretion over our investment decisions and we end up being wrong, then we should also be able to calculate how much we will lose, whether that is opportunity costs with our money or actual losses from being wrong.

[Wekkel]

The 4hr looks scary, but one could also say that the 2hr has nicely cooled and turning around for the next push upwards.

That’s the trouble with directionless markets: you can basically see any pattern. It depends on your conviction.

The last time, this 4hr situation was met with a truncated price action neutralising the down wave before it could do harm. I hope traders are lazy and take that as comfort and dare to hold on, because a leg down from here could be considerable (testing 2018 lows again).

[dakiller322]

Wife knows all about what I got and is cool and calm about it all and trusts me to sell when it is the right time to.

We have plans to build a new house. We bought the land back in December last year, sold enough BTC to pay for the land deposit and architect fees then, pretty much a day before the peak. It has been a long drawn out process getting planning sorted, the plans are not quite finalised yet still.

What I have in BTC is enough to build half the planned house, and so we sit and wait for it to come back up before we start building.

We currently own our current house with only a small mortgage left on it as well, so we aren't wasting rent money waiting here. Just with a toddler and a baby now, the current house is getting a bit cramped.

New house is going to be in the order of 10,000 sqft all up on a 5 acre plot.

[serveria.com]

4 hour chart looks ugly. Signaling a dump.

• painfully low volume indicating a lack of enthusiasm at current prices
• pair of dojis at the top signaling price reversals
• overall short term price down trend

I doubt it there's going to be any major dump anytime soon.

1. Average Joes have sold BTC long ago (back in March-June)
2. The whales are not selling as they have bought from Average Joes all the way down. In fact they're waiting for an opportunity to pump
3. Miners/Jihan etc can't dump more they've already been dumping on a regular basis

So who can dump?

The only risk I see is the same old MtGox/Silk Road/Satoshi   etc cashing out. But why would they sell the whole stash in one go?  

P.S. Forgot the good old FUD: US bans BTC or similar 

[HairyMaclairy]

For what it’s worth, we are now down $54 from my original call.  Chart continues to look like something the cat dragged in.

[JayJuanGee]

Largely, I agree that currently we are not in a crypto winter.

Is that because things don't look gloomy enough ? (yet)  .. or because it won't happen ?

By now, Majormax, you should know me well enough to realize that I don't really make predictions, but instead I get pleasure out of criticizing the predictions of others, especially when they start to get into language or math (or technical analysis) that seem to be demonstrating that they know what the fuck is going to happen - if they are expressing anything greater than 75% likely (or 25 % unlikely, in the inverse) then I might become inspired to be on it like a fly on shit.

In other words, I don't know, what is going to happen, but I surely don't think that the 2014 case is playing out yet, and there are still decent odds that we are in an early 2013 scenario rather than in a late 2013 scenario.

These so far unsuccessful about 5 attempts to break below $6k don't necessarily play well for the bear case, but they do not come anywhere close to guaranteeing a bullish scenario either, because for me to feel comfortable and out of the woods, then BTC price is going to have to return comfortably into the area in which it is testing $10k resistance and even perhaps breaking through such resistance - even if such breaking through is NOT sustained, I might become a bit more comfortable that the bottom is already in, and that our current crypto winter (baby winter) is NOT going to be as bad as the 2014-2015 crypto winter (arguably dragging into 2016).

How long at these levels or lower, before the CryptoWinter definition is met ?

I understand that some of these low prices that are NOT really breaking free of $6k for more than 7 months is NOT really comfortable for some HODLers and some who accumulated their BTC in the $10k plus prices, but still our current prices have so far not gotten close to the previous ATH (around $1,163) nor even close to sub $3k which a lot of bearish technical analysis bitcoin skeptics are proclaiming to be necessary levels of pain (blood in the streets).

I am not trying to be pessimistic here, because it is important to be open to all possibilities.

Maybe you could say that, by the time the Crypto Winter is easily visible, we will have been in it long enough for it to be over !

I believe that part of my criticism of you earlier had been that I thought that you were painting the bear scenario and the crypto winter as a kind of inevitability, and you started with some of those proclamations in the January time frame, even though personally, I though that those kinds of views were too pessimistic and also too much closing off that the blow off top had not yet happened (and we were merely in an extended BTC price correction). 

Surely, a lot of what you predicted has already come true, even though, so far, it has not reached as dire of levels as you seemed to had been anticipating, and actually, it seems to me that you make a very good point to assert that we might not know what is(was) the crypto winter until either we are "in it" for a long time, or we are coming out of it or that we are sufficiently out of it to be able to assess its parameters in hindsight.

[HairyMaclairy]

She got a sister?

[JayJuanGee]

Welp at the current price of $6495 we are down $18 since that previous chart.  So yeah.  
I am sort of using WO to keep myself honest with my price predictions and see how I track.  I would welcome contrary views.  I miss Tera he taught me a lot.

<——————— should give you an indication as to whether you should trade based on my charting

Citing Tera as your source of authority is not likely to win you many WO thread friends.   

[HairyMaclairy]

Would you prefer Proudhon?

[Majormax]

These so far unsuccessful about 5 attempts to break below $6k don't necessarily play well for the bear case, but they do not come anywhere close to guaranteeing a bullish scenario either, because for me to feel comfortable and out of the woods, then BTC price is going to have to return comfortably into the area in which it is testing $10k resistance and even perhaps breaking through such resistance - even if such breaking through is NOT sustained, I might become a bit more comfortable that the bottom is already in, and that our current crypto winter (baby winter) is NOT going to be as bad as the 2014-2015 crypto winter (arguably dragging into 2016).

I like your analysis generally. 

Most posters, as you point out, come out with proclamations based on either nothing, or misread/false facts.

Given that nobody has a crystal ball, it takes a bit of skill and experience to express a cogent scenario. Making cases for alternative price moves is nearly always the best way.


'Baby Winter'  :  could be possible, and it helps the case for the bottom being already in. If its a full Winter, then a bottom in the 2-3k range is more possible. I hate the idea of that, but the market often makes us take the worst tasting medicine.

Whichever way, it will be a long climb out, and patience is needed.

[toknormal]

So what happens now ?

[Totscha]

So what happens now ?

Now we fall...

[Yaplatu]

It's complicated ... we need new bulls to return bullish     HOLD FOREVER 

[Totscha]

It's complicated ... we need new bulls to return bullish     HOLD FOREVER 

You spelled n00bs wrong 

[HairyMaclairy]

Now we fall...

More likely we just keep breaking sideways until we achieve a trigger.

It's complicated ... we need new bulls to return bullish     HOLD FOREVER  

You spelled n00bs wrong  

You sound like someone who sold the top of the market at $3k.  

[El duderino_]

@infofront



you just simply do NOT let one hanging on the NR of the beast      

[El duderino_]

So what happens now ?

Now we fall...