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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 41 (28.3%)
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2023 - 1 (0.7%)
Never - 5 (3.4%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21178632 times)
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JayJuanGee
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September 18, 2018, 01:13:38 AM

CAUTION! Volatile days ahead:



Yeah that doesn’t read good I’m afraid. If I was a day trader I’d go short right now.

"Going short" means using margin, right?

Is there a way to still be a day trader without using margin?  

So, if you are trader that does NOT use margin, then that would be selling, right now.  Either way (using margin to bet on down or selling right now), does not seem good to me.  But what do I know?  especially when it comes to profitably playing the dynamics of margin?
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JayJuanGee
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September 18, 2018, 01:29:21 AM

It's like climbing mount Everest for weeks and then going down in a high speed elevator in minutes! Anyway, the best thing you can do is HODL!  Cool

That is quite the elevator, image.  A more than 5 mile elevator, whoaza!!!!


It would not look this nice.




But it would not look as extreme as a space elevator, either.  Somewhere in the middle.

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September 18, 2018, 02:01:10 AM

Just to be clear, are we using reversed barts and the like unironically here?
Yep


I don't like the term "reverse bart" because it looks more like an "upside down bart" to me.
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September 18, 2018, 02:21:48 AM

lmao

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September 18, 2018, 02:23:03 AM

I just pulled the trigger and bought another $1000 from $6500.  Grin

It was a risky decision if you think for short term but since I am here till 2021 It doesn't matter much...


In the long run it doesn't matter much. People were trying to buy the bottom in 2015, but it didn't make much difference if you bought in at $150, or $200, or $250. By 2021 the price could be hundreds of thousands of dollars, and $6500 coins will be a distant memory.

Actually, in 2014, when the price was fluctuating between $400 and $700, I recall some members crying about coins that they bought in the $700 range or even higher, and other members asserting that in the longer run, all of those coins are going to be profitable - which ended up being the case by late 2016 - and all of those coins became very profitable by mid-2017 without really returning to being unprofitable.

In the end, if we keep buying bitcoin and engaging in a kind of hybrid dollar cost average that also attempts to buy on dips, we are likely to profit handsomely, even if we make a few mistakes here and there.  The most profitable were the ones who took some kind of stake in bitcoin and stuck with accumulating, rather than waiting on the sidelines for the price to drop - which seemed to neither come when you wanted it and price drops do not tend to inspire confidence for a lot of folks, even when attempting to HODL and ACCUMULATL through it  

So even when the folks who sold in the $1k to $3k arena may have felt profitable, at this time it still seems questionable whether they are going to be able to get back into bitcoin anywhere near their selling price and they also missed a lot of opportunity to sell some or all of their BTC at much higher prices.  By the way, if you are investing in BTC long term, rather than short term, then you should not be cashing out all of your BTC, even if the price goes shooting up, even though it might well be prudent to shave some of the profits off on the way up by selling reasonable portions of your stash that allows you to still have some, in the event that the price keeps going up beyond your expectations, which seems to be about 3x to 5x of greater than expected returns (on paper) of what happened in December 2017.

with the world the way it is (Trump Admin and I expect a doozy of a Recession as a result of the 1/2 Trillion Dollar Permanent tax cuts to the wealthy in the USA)

I am following this plan. I retired in Jan when BTC and ALTS were high (duh) thus the goal is to last until I'm 65 at worst or 66 at best (full retirement age w/soc sec) with my

crypto assets. With all the drama I finally just took all my assets traditional and crypto and cut them in HALF for returns etc for retirement use until 66 years. My worse case guess say.

Thus working with the disabled in my lifetime of work I had the buying power of my working life of about $35k say average....with 1/2 assets in crypto, as I state above shot down to 1/2

of value of today...still.. 35k buying power is still possible if needed

the next 3 years till traditional investments and social security kick in (even thou have to buy my own insurance till 65 years for next 1.5 years)

and if crypto and all goes poof or even less than half value in next 2-3 years my traditional investments will cover me at 66 with soc sec etc (no debts) at you guessed it 35k

Thus, figure it is out of my hands. If I am correct..covered...if I am not I'm in much better shape...viewing it this way than fretting about it ..anyway...how I look at this.

Been thru 5 recessions...I'd suggest folk, pay off the j.c.penny card and such..knock off debts, get new tires, do SOMETHING in a proactive manner because we are more than due

for a recession. IMHO. Again, if I'm wrong I'm still Golden ..if I am right at least I did something. Again, always helps to have your debts down and ducks in a row when such happens.

You are a LOT less hard on yourself.

anyway, my coping mechanism these days. I really can't see folk selling their hoard of BTC or altcoins at 25% loss (15% cap gains and in my case 10% state taxes) just to watch

the stock market goes down 40% after you swap them to traditional investments. (yeah, I know typical downturn is 20% and takes 3-4yrs to recover from. I'm betting 40% deep

a recession and 7  years to recover from) Thus losing 'potentially' 65% of your BTC and/or altcoin stash as worse-case IF BTC and altcoins act like gold and go sideways or up

in such times, ie a store of value...well...again seems damn silly, to put BTC or alt into such ..I'll take my chances HODL mode or as much as I can and stay retired

You can bug me about how wrong I may be on this in 3 years on the thread....but how I'm 'dubiously' mentally and such preparing for the next recession. Just saying HODL.

Chump or Champ in HODL mode. We will be the first to know I guess. (after the fact as usual)Sad

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September 18, 2018, 02:33:57 AM

All of this is still just noise. Wake me up if price goes below $6,00.

Fuck!
I’ll hang myself if it goes below 6 dollars Grin


Wtf i think there Will be Many hangings if that happens.......

Right now it would actually be amusing as all the hangings would be on Wall Street! Cheesy

Everyone here would just buy M0ar!

Something similar already happened in 2011 when gox got hacked, and Bitcoin crashed to one cent each. The price went back up afterwards and 2011 hodlers are now rich. If it goes below $6 I'll be simultaneously buying and crying.

LOL, the Crying Buy! Do we have a Meme for that?

Reminds me of the Crying call in poker. Cheesy

I had to make one for a grand last week when the board went runner runner straight on my set.


How about this one?

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September 18, 2018, 02:46:33 AM



How about this one?



Haha, close. I think we will need one one day but hopefully not soon. Cheesy
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September 18, 2018, 02:54:31 AM

I just pulled the trigger and bought another $1000 from $6500.  Grin

It was a risky decision if you think for short term but since I am here till 2021 It doesn't matter much...


In the long run it doesn't matter much. People were trying to buy the bottom in 2015, but it didn't make much difference if you bought in at $150, or $200, or $250. By 2021 the price could be hundreds of thousands of dollars, and $6500 coins will be a distant memory.

Actually, in 2014, when the price was fluctuating between $400 and $700, I recall some members crying about coins that they bought in the $700 range or even higher, and other members asserting that in the longer run, all of those coins are going to be profitable - which ended up being the case by late 2016 - and all of those coins became very profitable by mid-2017 without really returning to being unprofitable.

In the end, if we keep buying bitcoin and engaging in a kind of hybrid dollar cost average that also attempts to buy on dips, we are likely to profit handsomely, even if we make a few mistakes here and there.  The most profitable were the ones who took some kind of stake in bitcoin and stuck with accumulating, rather than waiting on the sidelines for the price to drop - which seemed to neither come when you wanted it and price drops do not tend to inspire confidence for a lot of folks, even when attempting to HODL and ACCUMULATL through it  

So even when the folks who sold in the $1k to $3k arena may have felt profitable, at this time it still seems questionable whether they are going to be able to get back into bitcoin anywhere near their selling price and they also missed a lot of opportunity to sell some or all of their BTC at much higher prices.  By the way, if you are investing in BTC long term, rather than short term, then you should not be cashing out all of your BTC, even if the price goes shooting up, even though it might well be prudent to shave some of the profits off on the way up by selling reasonable portions of your stash that allows you to still have some, in the event that the price keeps going up beyond your expectations, which seems to be about 3x to 5x of greater than expected returns (on paper) of what happened in December 2017.

with the world the way it is (Trump Admin and I expect a doozy of a Recession as a result of the 1/2 Trillion Dollar Permanent tax cuts to the wealthy in the USA) I am following this plan. I retired in Jan when BTC and ALTS were high (duh) thus the goal is to last until I'm 65 at worst or 66 at best (full retirement age w/soc sec) with my crypto assets. With all the drama I finally just took all my assets traditional and crypto and cut them in HALF for returns etc for retirement use until 66 years. My worse case guess say.

I do something very similar to that, which is projecting negative scenarios that are pretty extreme (but still within the realm of reasonably possible), and then establishing my budget around such negative case scenarios, so if the scenario turns out better than my projection, then I have icing on my cake of profits.... which usually ends up being the case... but it seems better to prepare for the more negative scenarios both financially and psychologically.



Thus working with the disabled in my lifetime of work I had the buying power of my working life of about $35k say average....with 1/2 assets in crypto, as I state above shot down to 1/2 of value of today...still.. 35k buying power is still possible if needed the next 3 years till traditional investments and social security kick in (even thou have to buy my own insurance till 65 years for next 1.5 years)
and if crypto and all goes poof or even less than half value in next 2-3 years my traditional investments will cover me at 66 with soc sec etc (no debts) at you guessed it 35k

Another way to consider the matter is to half your current income or cashflow, and to be able to live off of $17,500 (and therefore the remainder value is cushion).  S

It sounds as if your overall plan is preparing you both financially and psychologically for possible and considerably negative scenarios.
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September 18, 2018, 03:09:39 AM

I doubt many of expected it to break 10k, then quickly pump up to 20k. I thought it would briefly touch 10k then crash back down again. At least you didn't buy back at a higher price than you sold at. Sell high, buy back low.

Yeah, $10k looked like that wall that wouldn't fall, so I sold some infront of it, and did something nice with the money, the value is still there.. I guess $20k was the wall that really wouldn't fall but I couldn't bear to look, lol. I just knew I wasn't going to sell any more of it..

I need to make it back to get over it but it's been hard for me to get started trading again..



I don't like the term "reverse bart" because it looks more like an "upside down bart" to me.

Inverted bart..
In this case a particularly rare Reverted bart..
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September 18, 2018, 03:51:02 AM
Last edit: September 18, 2018, 10:41:14 AM by d_eddie
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"Going short" means using margin, right?
More or less, yes.

Quote
Is there a way to still be a day trader without using margin?  
It's not a sharp yes/no matter, using margin. What actually matters is the leverage. If you're positioned below 1:1 margin, you're actually not "using margin" as common sense understands it.

If, unrealistically, you went short at 1:10 (0.1x leverage), that would mean using nominal 10$ chips each actually worth just 1$. Leverage under 1x can be considered a "negative" money multiplier because the money amount gets shrunk rather than blown up.

What realistically happens most of the time is positive leverage, like 1.2:1, 2:1 or 5:1. (1.2x, 2x, 5x). Or even 100:1, for that matter. In the latter case, you play with 1$ chips actually worth 100$. Null leverage means 1:1, because it's the neutral muliplier: "no multiply, no margin".

Quote
So, if you are trader that does NOT use margin, then that would be selling, right now.  Either way (using margin to bet on down or selling right now), does not seem good to me.  But what do I know?  especially when it comes to profitably playing the dynamics of margin?

Using your play money to short with negative, null or slightly positive leverage can help you hedge your stash. You take a hit on your stash when the corn goes down, but you are rewarded on your play money if you cash out your short. A little sugar on the pill. A penny for your pain. I've been doing this a lot and I still am. Little bites here and there, but they do add up.

Of course, you have to let go of the short (probably using a stop loss order) if it begins losing too much. Hopefully, it will only be a dent in your overal profit made of little bites. The corn stole your last bite of play money profit, but that means your stash is growing in value again.

Once again, it's about finding a system that works for you. Setting your stops straight can help. At what price do I cash out? At what price do I give up and write the short off at a loss? By reserving major tweaking for special situations, you can get the luxury of carelessness, since you know your best and worst outcomes in advance.

Learn, rinse, repeat. Each learning session costs. Receivng lessons at bargain prices is quite valuable.
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September 18, 2018, 03:52:29 AM
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in 2010 $BTC +700%

in 2010 $BTC -65%, followed by +540%

in 2011 $BTC -48%, followed by +5500%

in 2011 $BTC -93%, followed by +12800%

in 2013 $BTC -81%, followed by +1600%

in 2014 $BTC -86%, followed by +12600%

in 2018 $BTC -75%, followed by...

Just buy and Hodl, the road to $100k and beyond will be bumpy but glorious.
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September 18, 2018, 04:11:09 AM
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Just so we all have our math clear, $100 down to $10 then back up to $100 is -90% followed by +900%.  
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September 18, 2018, 04:59:48 AM

in 2010 $BTC +700%

in 2010 $BTC -65%, followed by +540%

in 2011 $BTC -48%, followed by +5500%

in 2011 $BTC -93%, followed by +12800%

in 2013 $BTC -81%, followed by +1600%

in 2014 $BTC -86%, followed by +12600%

in 2018 $BTC -75%, followed by...

Just buy and Hodl, the road to $100k and beyond will be bumpy but glorious.

Let's see what happens  Grin
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September 18, 2018, 05:36:39 AM

Just so we all have our math clear, $100 down to $10 then back up to $100 is -90% followed by +900%.  

Don't let facts interfere with a good story.

Sincerely,
EVERY marketing person EVER
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September 18, 2018, 08:54:42 AM


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September 18, 2018, 09:01:15 AM




CNBC Reverse Bitcoin Price Indicator - pump incoming?
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September 18, 2018, 09:12:43 AM

I read on whalepool that shorts were ATH again.  Haven't bothered checking it for myself yet. 
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September 18, 2018, 09:16:45 AM
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Just so we all have our math clear, $100 down to $10 then back up to $100 is -90% followed by +900%.  

indeed, I even have a pic for this



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September 18, 2018, 09:21:24 AM
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CNBC Reverse Bitcoin Price Indicator - pump incoming?

You can also use this website to understand the dip and the top of the price

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

1 means max. fear
100 means max. greed.

For ex. look at the 6th of February. the index point is 8. very close to max. fear (which is 1) and the BTC was at the dip. at the 7th of February the trend change.
21th of February. The index point is 74 close to max greed. the price is at the top. At the 22th of February the trend change.
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September 18, 2018, 09:32:03 AM
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I read on whalepool that shorts were ATH again.  Haven't bothered checking it for myself yet.  

How much can the tail wag the dog ?

It's interesting to watch the relationship between the bitcoin cash settled markets and the spot market. Many observers - mainly gold trader pundits - are assuming that the derivative markets will "control" the spot market in Bitcoin the way it does in gold. However, I think it should not be as simple as that, at least in theory.

The main reason this happens in gold is because the underlying asset's inability to "travel through wires" has forced almost comprehensive decoupling of the two fundamental aspects of the trade - ownership and posession. In gold, only ownership is traded which means almost the ENTIRE volume is accounted for by the paper market and there's very little "anchor" in the physical because nobody actually takes posession. (Why would they). Even people who say they hold "physical" gold don't really. They hold custodial contracts which are not much better than a futures contract.

The question is: how much can the bitcoin cash settled markets influence the spot market ? That is the question.

The margin-traded derivatives markets such as CME and CBOE can make money on the way up as well as the way down. They don't care which direction the price goes in. On the other hand, the spot market generally does since "hodlers" are always long. If we look at the last 6 months trading at the longer ranges we can see how margin trading has "milked the bubble in the spot market. It blew the bubble in the latter half of 2017, then burst it right when the cash-settled markets opened, then "milked it in a zig-zag pattern on the way down.



The limits of the margin traded rollercoaster

However look what's happening over time. The amplitude of the zig-zag is waning. There's less mileage in margin trading with every drop. Also, it's settling right at the level "Wall Street" had accumulated to at the opening of the futures markets late last year. As far as I can see, this means that recourse to the spot market is going to be required once again to repeat this process and indeed we can see accumulation going on if we "look through" the price trace to the underlying volume pattern which has been to the upside almost since last March.


OBV contrary indication when compared with price trace EMA

Returning to the comparison with precious metals and the question of how "anchored" the underlying asset is compared with its derivative trading, as far as I can tell, around 0.5% (90k BTC) of the bitcoin supply actually moves each day. To match this, around 1000 Tones of gold would have to be physically traded. i.e. not just ownership is exchanged but possession as well. That's $42 Billion of gold.

Given that around $200 Billion is not an unusual daily traded volume, I doubt the physical movements would be anywhere near the $42B.

That's why I don't think the Bitcoin cash settled markets have anywhere near the influence over the spot price that we think they have and certainly not the same influence that gold derivatives markets have over their underlying asset price.

Another way to look at it is simply how much the market devalues a monetary asset based on its sub-optimal monetary properties - one of which is mobility (physical liquidity). With precious metals, their inability to travel through wires has lead to a decoupling of the paper market from the physical in the sense that possession and ownership are traded independently of each other. That in turn has lead to a devaluation and sub-optimal performance of the asset in its traditional role - hedging against inflation of the fiat monetary base for example.

Liberating the "Underlying"

Crypto, on the other hand is liquid in electronic markets. A far higher portion of the coin supply is traded in the sense of possession remaining with ownership. This puts cash-settled markets at a disadvantage because they are "outside the loop"in a way that they aren't with gold.



How is this Possible ?

It basically comes down to the feature widely known as "public-private key cryptology". If we superimpose the model of bitcoin on gold, both public and private keys are co-incident. That means we need custodial services because gold hodlers cannot allow the metal to leave their posession and still retain control over it.

With public-private key cryptology, a cryptographic asset can be allowed to sit "out there" while retaining mobility, resistance to counterfeit and still be under the control of the owner. Public and private keys are decoupled. That is the huge advantage in value that Bitcoin has as a monetary asset over precious metals. It's also the property that gives it far greater resistance to the kind of manipulation from derivatives markets that we see in PM'S.
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